LIB 6.3%
Incumbent MP
Scott Morrison, since 2007.
Geography
Southern Sydney. Cook covers parts of the Sutherland shire east of the Illawarra railway and north of Port Hacking, including the Kurnell peninsula and the suburbs of Cronulla, Sylvania, Miranda, Caringbah, Gymea, Como and parts of Sutherland.
Redistribution
Cook previously extended south to the Sutherland-Wollongong local government boundary. The 2009 redistribution transferred sparsely populated areas south of Port Hacking to Cunningham. Cook was extended west to take in the Sutherland CBD east of the railway line, and parts of Como and Bonnet Bay, which had previously been included in Hughes. This narrowed the Liberal margin from 6.6% to 6.3%.
History
Cook was first created for the 1969 election. The suburbs around the current seat of Cook were first included in the seat of Illawarra from federation until the 1922 election, when it was transferred to Werriwa, when Werriwa was a large rural seat covering areas south of Sydney. The seat of Hughes was created in 1955, which was the first seat based in Sutherland. Cook was then created in 1969. This used the same name as an earlier seat based in inner Sydney, which had been a safe Labor seat before its abolition in 1955.
For the previous sixty years the seat covering Sutherland had been mostly held by the Labor Party, although Hughes was lost to Don Dobie (LIB) in 1966, and Cook has been held by the Liberals for most of its existence.
Dobie transferred to Cook in 1969, but was defeated by the ALP’s Ray Thorburn in 1972. Thorburn was defeated by Dobie in 1975 and Dobie held the seat until his retirement in 1996.
Dobie was succeeded by Stephen Mutch, a member of the NSW upper house, in 1996, and Mutch was defeated for preselection by Bruce Baird in 1998. Baird had previously been a state MP and Minister for Transport from 1988 to 1995, as well as taking charge of Sydney’s Olympic big up to 1993.
Baird held the seat for nine years, during which time he developed a reputation as an independent-minded Liberal backbencher who was occasionally critical of the Howard government.
Baird announced his retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal preselection was originally won by Michael Towke. Towke’s preselection was overturned amid allegations of branch stacking in a controversial contest, and he was replaced by former director of the NSW Liberal Party, Scott Morrison.
Candidates
- Graeme Strang (Independent)
- Peter Scaysbrook (Labor)
- Scott Morrison (Liberal)
- Merelyn Foy (Family First)
- Naomi Waizer (Greens)
- Beth Smith (Christian Democratic Party)
- Richard Putral (One Nation)
Political situation
It seems extremely unlikely that a blue-ribbon seat like Cook could be lost by the Liberals, although the margin is not as strong as would be expected for such an area.
2007 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Scott Morrison | LIB | 45,116 | 52.40 | -5.11 |
Mark Buttigieg | ALP | 30,921 | 35.91 | +7.69 |
Naomi Waizer | GRN | 5,342 | 6.20 | -0.82 |
Beth Smith | CDP | 1,929 | 2.24 | -0.17 |
Richard Putral | ON | 1,116 | 1.30 | -0.63 |
Graeme Strang | IND | 693 | 0.80 | +0.23 |
Ari Katsoulas | FF | 596 | 0.69 | +0.69 |
Patricia Poulos | IND | 394 | 0.46 | +0.46 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Scott Morrison | LIB | 48,711 | 56.57 | -6.71 |
Mark Buttigieg | ALP | 37,395 | 43.43 | +6.71 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Sutherland have been divided between the main suburbs in the seat.
The Liberal Party won in all parts of the seat, with the Liberals performing most strongly around Sylvania, and to a lesser extent Caringbah and Cronulla. The ALP managed to win some seats around Miranda and the western parts of the seat.
Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
Caringbah-Miranda | 5.54 | 58.99 | 24,705 | 33.03 |
Sutherland-Gymea | 6.73 | 52.41 | 17,595 | 23.53 |
Cronulla | 7.43 | 57.85 | 12,596 | 16.84 |
Como | 6.66 | 52.89 | 10,698 | 14.30 |
Sylvania | 3.58 | 61.49 | 9,193 | 12.29 |
Other votes | 6.87 | 54.89 | 16,046 |
This is an example of the pattern whereby some former outer suburban electorates that once contained cheap housing and Labor voters have now become much more upmarket and securely Liberal: Casey and in part La Trobe are similar.
Aston another one.
Missed this report. The Labor candidate is Peter Scaysbrook.
My prediction: Liberal retain, with a 3% swing to them.