Chifley – Election 2010

ALP 19.7%

Incumbent MP
Roger Price, since 1984.

Geography
Western Sydney. Chifley covers western parts of the City of Blacktown. Chifley covers parts of the suburb of Blacktown and the neighbouring suburbs of Doonside, Mount Druitt, Rooty Hill, Marayong, Quakers Hill and  a number of other suburbs in the northwestern parts of Blacktown council area.

Redistribution
Chifley did not change a large amount. It lost parts of the centre of Blacktown to the neighbouring seat of Greenway. It’s southern border was extended as far south as the Western Motorway, gaining territory from Prospect. It also gained the sparsely-populated northwestern parts of Blacktown council from Greenway.

History
Chifley was created for the 1969 election, and has always been a safe seat for the ALP. The seat was first won in 1969 by the ALP’s John Armitage, who had previously held the neighbouring seat of Mitchell for one term from 1961 to 1963.

Armitage held the seat until his retirement at the 1983 election, when he was succeeded by Russell Gorman. Gorman transferred to the new seat of Greenway at the 1984 election, and Chifley was won by Deputy Mayor of Blacktown Roger Price. Gorman held Greenway until his retirement in 1996, while Price has been re-elected in Chifley at every election since 1984, becoming Chief Government Whip after the 2007 election.

Candidates

  • Debbie Robertson (Greens)
  • Terry Cooksley (Australia First)
  • Ed Husic (Labor)
  • Keith Darley (Democrats)
  • Dave Vincent (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Louise Kedwell (One Nation)
  • Venus Priest (Liberal)

Political situation
This seat is very safe for the ALP, and they will retain it in 2010.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Roger Price ALP 51,568 64.18 +10.12
Jess Diaz LIB 19,092 23.76 -6.62
John Forrester GRN 2,897 3.61 -1.66
Dave Vincent CDP 2,751 3.42 +1.21
Louise Kedwell ON 1,183 1.47 -0.53
James Cogan SEP 1,069 1.33 +1.33
Evan Jewell FF 1,016 1.26 -0.24
Wayne Hyland IND 484 0.60 -0.24
Amarjit Tanda IND 288 0.36 +0.36

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Roger Price ALP 56,776 70.66 +8.69
Jess Diaz LIB 23,572 29.34 -8.69

These results do not take into consideration the effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
Chifley is entirely contained with Blacktown council area, so it is difficult to draw clear boundaries dividing parts of the seat. I have grouped booths into three areas: those around Blacktown and Doonside, those around Mount Druitt and Rooty Hill, and the remaining booths in the northwest parts of the seat.

The ALP won massive majorities in all parts of the seat. With the exception of one Liberal booth in the far north of the seat, the ALP won over 60% of the two-party preferred vote in all booths. The ALP won over 75% over the vote in the North-West, just short of 70% in the southwest and and about two-thirds of the vote in the eastern part of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Chifley. Blacktown-Doonside in blue, Mount Druitt-Rooty Hill in yellow, North-West in green.

 

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
North-West 3.12 75.21 27,536 40.85
Blacktown-Doonside 4.23 66.61 25,983 38.55
Mount Druitt-Rooty Hill 3.31 69.88 13,889 20.60
Other votes 4.07 68.16 13,544
Results of the 2007 federal election in Chifley.

33 COMMENTS

  1. I remember when Ed Husic ran for Greenway and the Libs printed pamphlets purporting to be from Husic, thanking the constituents of Greenway for considering electing an Islamic candidate (Husic is Islamic) who would ‘promote Islamic values.’ That didn’t get as much media exposure as it should have. The Libs really are full of racist bigots.

    Needless to say Husic will be pretty safe in Chifley.

  2. The lone Liberal booth I believe is Marsden Park public school. Husic will absolutely romp home of course. He is probably glad now he did not win Greenway in 2004. Would have made an interesting 2007 preselction, although I guess they would have “encouraged” Price to retire then. I am told Husic is best friends with Chris Bowen, was best man at his wedding

  3. Barker STILL not ‘official’ I knew weeks ago. The Libs may be waiting for someone they think is a better candidate but from what I’ve heard Barker and his mother (Jacqueline Donaldson) control the numbers in the area.

  4. Chifley isn’t exactly the kind of seat where Liberal head office would bother to take down the candidate surely.

  5. This election is the people’s chance to show their displeasure at the treacherous back stabbing of the duly elected Kevin Rudd.

    I will see who is going to remove this brain dead baby bonus, this has allowed the wrong people to get help while failing to assist the working family again!

  6. Look Anti Muslim or Anti any race or religion is not tolerated.
    The facts though are this we have a Labor party that has held Chifley for over 30 years and delivered Bad policies – Bad debt and Hundreds of Broken promises

    We have a Liberal party that replaced a racist candidate with another racist candidate

    The Greens if they had their way once elected would legalise drugs and have no economic policy besides a carbon tax

    Please give me a go – a local electrician long time resident of Chifley
    Keith Darley – The Australian Democrats
    Dont waste your vote this election you deserve better

  7. Wow, Keith. So much for the Democrats “keep the bastards honest” that isn’t the Greens drug policy at all and that is one small bit of our economic plan.

  8. Good on the Democrats for having a go. I seriously believe that there is a place in Australian politics for a credible “keep the bastards honest” negotiator, in-between-the-major-parties party. The Australian Democrats used to be that party. To be successful they would need to play politics with the upmost integrity and honesty. The ridiculous jibe against the Greens above and recent breaking of preference commitments show that the Dems will not return to their former glory.

  9. Don’t give the Greens Government This Election?
    If the Greens get In this election we face a party that are not willing to negotiate on policy, which will see either a Labor or Liberal Government bend and pass policy based on the Greens policy or we could face another election due to a double dissolution with in the first 2 months.
    These below listed policy points of the Greens are dangerous and show how destructive they will be if given the chance to hold balance in Government.
    Out of 150 people that vote Greens that I have spoken to 75 after seeing this have declared they would never vote them in again.
    It is a fact that 80% of Greens voters do not know the policies that they have.
    How can we give a party such as the Greens that power, the power to run a country when:
    After reading this please remember the good work the Australian Democrats did when in office and why they should be there again.
    Please read the below Greens policies and if we can’t get the message out the Australian Democrats are the true third voice in politics and certainly the only responsible third party in politics then I am afraid the below will become a reality.
    The below information is freely available on all the policy downloads on The Greens Website.

    Migration Policy: Point 11:
    asylum seekers who arrive without a valid visa to have their claims for asylum assessed while living in the community.
    What would happen without proper screening of an individual whether it is health wise or security wise.

    Drugs and Substance Policy: Point 1:
    The Australian Greens do not support the legalisation of currently illegal drugs.
    Drugs and Substance Policy: Point 5:
    The regulation of personal use of currently illegal drugs
    So it is fine to use drugs- how do you as a parent feel about this. Maybe they have not ever seen a drug dependant person and the dangers not only to themselves but those that treat them in hospitals and the dangers they present to others around them and also the physical damage they do to themselves.

    Health Policy: Point 23:
    abolish the private health insurance rebate and redirect funds to the public health system, including public hospitals.
    Private health insurance takes the Burdon off public hospitals which is far less in expense then making public hospitals cater for everyone.

    Justice Policy: Point 23:
    end the criminalisation of consensual adult sex work.
    This would encourage the illegal sex trade of importing overseas people for profit in the Adult Sex Trade and encourage street work across the nation in all suburbs.

    Justice Policy: Point 27 & 28
    prohibit the use of electroshock weapons and Tasers.
    progress gun law reform, including prohibition of the possession and use of automatic hand guns in the community.
    This would take away all protection the police have against criminals that possess illegal firearms and other dangerous weapons

    Taxation: Point 22 and 23:

    taxing family trusts in the same way as companies;
    introduce an estate tax

    Taxation: Point 26:
    a carbon tax
    other ecological taxes and charges

    27. introduce a system of minimum personal and corporate tax legislation to reduce the opportunities for individuals and companies to use loopholes to minimise their tax obligations.
    28. conduct a full review of the superannuation system with the aim of reducing its complexity and establishing progressive rates of superannuation taxation.
    29. return the company tax rate to 33% and broaden the company tax base by reducing tax concessions.

    More and more taxes that will certainly have an upward effect on the cost of living on an already overly taxed country

    Employment Policy: Point 12 through to 47
    facilitating industry wide collective agreements that are union negotiated and exceed the Award standards;
    ensuring that workplace and union-led bargaining is the primary tool for obtaining industrial outcomes
    strengthen unions’ right of entry to recruit members
    increase casual loadings to a minimum of 30% and introduce the ability for casual employees to convert to permanent part time work after 3 months of continuous employment

    Why would a business employ anyone if the 1950’s union rules come back into play the above mentioned coupled with the environment carbon tax will once again put massive upward pressure on the cost of living as business hike the price to cover all the above.
    Like an employee has a right to be in a union an employer has the right to only hire non union members.

    Global economics policy:
    12. remove Australia from existing bilateral Free Trade Agreements,
    This would severely harm our agreements with China and the like that in turn support our mining industry our primary industry which in turn would harm our ecnomy and put upward pressure on more taxes

    Keith Darley – Australian Democrats

  10. Oh, Keith. .

    The Greens DO negotiate, that is why we’ve gotten as far as we have. You’re probably thinking of the Coalition, now on your policy points.

    Drugs and Substance Policy: Point 1:
    The Australian Greens do not support the legalisation of currently illegal drugs.

    Think you just nipped it at the bud. (Excuse the pun)

    Migration Policy: Point 11:
    asylum seekers who arrive without a valid visa to have their claims for asylum assessed while living in the community.

    That doesn’t concern me at all. If anyone dangerous was trying to get here, I assure you there is better means then leaky boats with a 50/50 chance of making the destination, these people would obviously be checked for Medical concerns.

    The Carbon Tax: Why should the people have to pay for the damage these companies are doing. The 10 billion returned from a price on Carbon would mean we can then invest in renewables and sell the to the rest of the world, these industries would have to keep in both sustainability and cost or be left behind for a cleaner and greener way of power. Any company with a Sane person at the head would try to cut it’s emissions, Germany, an economic power house already has a Carbon Tax, India has a Carbon Levy of 50 rupees a tonne, Denmark has had one since 1996 and a lot of other countries do too, even some individual U.S states.

    27. introduce a system of minimum personal and corporate tax legislation to reduce the opportunities for individuals and companies to use loopholes to minimise their tax obligations.

    I find it interesting that you use that to attack the Greens, the Democrats support loopholes to make sure companies don’t pay there fair share?

    29. return the company tax rate to 33% and broaden the company tax base by reducing tax concessions.

    Just by the way, company tax rate is 30% at the moment.

    I’m failing to see how these will up living cost substantially. The Greens support dropping small business tax from what it is currently (29%) by 2% the Democrats want to stop that completely by ending the Mining Tax, even though Small Business employs 5-6 million and Mining employs around 130,000

    Employment Policy: Point 12 through to 47

    12. an industrial relations system that protects and enhances the rights of employees and workers by:
    Legislating a minimum standard for pay, annual leave and hours of work that protects all employees and workers;

    47. provide industrial tribunals with full powers to make orders to give effect to gender pay equity, on a workforce, industry or workplace basis.

    There is a lot of points inbetween 12 and 47 (obviously) so I would advise that anyone reading this go read it for themselves http://greens.org.au/policies/sustainable-economy/employment-and-industrial-relations

    Global economics policy:
    12. remove Australia from existing bilateral Free Trade Agreements,
    13. enter into multilateral trade agreements, except where a bilateral trade agreement favours a developing country.

  11. Aaaah now we see the truth of the new Australian Democrats coming through: they’re now a mouthpiece for the Liberals!

  12. Dear All

    Please ignore Keith Darley above. I don’t know if his views represent the current Australian Democrats or 2UE. Hopefully not both. Sadly he is an endorsed candidate, who dosen’t know his own policy, let alone any others.

    “Private health insurance takes the Burdon off public hospitals which is far less in expense then making public hospitals cater for everyone. ”

    http://www.democrats.org.au/policies/Action2010/Health_AP.pdf
    • Phasing out private health insurance subsidies (~$6b/year) and invest
    savings in community primary health centres

    The Green policies quoted above are only snippets and not the whole policy. For instance the Greens do support Medical and Security screening of Asylum seekers.

    If you want a progressive voice, it is wearing Green lipstick!

  13. Colin – It’s not a progressive voice if you are not supporting the Private Health industry in some form. Or if you support death taxes. Or if you support company tax rates at 33%. Or if you support an increase to the highest personal marginal rate of tax. This is 1970’s stuff.

    I think David Koch clearly pointed out the weaknesses with Green’s policy when Christine Milne attempted (but in a very poor way) to try and match it with Barnaby Joyce on Monday.

    The Greens are far too left for an Australian mainstream society. They have an avenue of opportunity but it needs to be somewhere between the two mainstream parties to have any real long term traction.

  14. DB, you have a warped understanding of what “progressive” means and koch is clearly not someone who I would rely on for political or economic analysis.

    I have said it before, I do believe there is a place in Australian politics for a centrist, in-between-the-major-parties party. But are the Democrats that party? Certainly not if they spew the conservative rubbish Keith Darley tried to above, or, as you have tried to do, claim the label “progressive”.

  15. Mr McCrae – I know nothing of Mr Keith Darley or yourself, and I am certainly no supporter of the Democrats, firstly. Secondly, I believe if the Greens had Government control and implemented their policies (as per their link), Australia would be spiralling into a economic depression of catastrophic proportions. Therefore, I struggle with the concept that the Greens could be considered a progressive party. They are a left-wing party, but not a progressive party. Both of the major parties are progressive parties: The ALP in the 1980’s undertook tremendous regulatory reforms in the labour and exchange rate markets. The co-alition undertook tremedous taxation and superannuation reforms in the Howard era. These were progressive measures. Unfortunately the ALP have done nothing that represents reform in the last 3 yers.

    A progressive is a person who is “a progressive, especially one who favours political progress or reform” (Webster’s dictionary). I don’t see the Greens in that space. I don’t see them in the space of reform, except perhaps on the environment. I think their economic policies are ill-considered at best, and many of their other policies, such as shutting down zoo’s as just plain wierd. Legalising drugs or even decriminalising them is also a very very strange minority view. There are plenty of other policies which are also very strange, and to Mr Darley’s credit, he has done rather well above in my view.

    Mr MacRae, you certainly don’t have to rely on Mr Koch for political or economic analysis, but I can assure you of this – I would give you all that I have if Mr Koch is not more proficient in economic matters than you are. I would suggest that Mr Stevens, or Mr Kohler, or Mr Bill Evans, or any other mainstream economist would share Mr Koch’s views regarding the Greens ability to manage the Australian economy.

    Yes, we could do with a centrist party (i.e. centrist between the ALP and LNP). That I agree. The Greens will never be that party and Democrats have run their race. However, centrist politics in Australia is somewhere to the right of other countries given that both major parties in Australia are right leaning anyway. The support for the Greens is a temporary fad in Australia as there is no-one else to fill that gap. In 10 years time, they may too, go the way of the Australian Democrats.

    I’m DB. Have a nice day 😉

  16. A progressive is a person who is “a progressive, especially one who favours political progress or reform”

    Pretty much just described the Greens, Labor hasn’t been progressive for about 30 years and even longer for the Liberals, those two are what we call “regressive”

    There will always be economists speaking out against Green Policy. Economists spoke out against the Stimulus package too, they speak out against Coalition policy. John Quiggins, one of the worlds leading economists, happens to disagree with you on the Greens economic policy. (http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2010/07/18/the-case-for-the-greens/) didn’t Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz recently say he supports the Carbon-tax proposed by the Greens?

    They may well go the way of the democrats, but you also have to admit that the Greens are taking Labor’s younger support base. The Greens are the only major party that support the countries left, the countries fastest growing Political Party, with an aging population both the Liberal and Labor vote would likely decrease, Liberal more than Labor, but I think the Greens will have an important role in the future of Australian politics, even if not a majority one.

  17. Ok Ok,
    The Greens don’t want to legailse drugs, I had a Greens campaign coordintator call me today to correct me. he said it is official Greens policy to DECRIMINALISE drugs.
    mmmmm, so i got out my thesaurus…It states to DECRIMINALISE is to LEGALISE.

    So to chaeck my facts further i paid $350 went to LAC solictors in Parramatta with the Greens downloadable policy in PDF fromat off their website and asked.

    Question: If i got caught with 10 kilos of cocaine by the police and said it was for me would i be arrested.
    Answer: Not under this policy

    Question: If i drove a car stoned and was pulled over would i be arrested for being stoned
    Answer: Not under this policy

    Question: If i sold 10 kilos of cocaine would i be arrested
    Answer: Not under this policy

    Question: If i made MDMA Pills would i be arrested
    Answer: Not under this policy

    In conclusion they replied the Greens policy that i had presented to them off the webisite could potentially write off many thousands of laws in relation to drug use / manufacture / distribution
    not to mention the pain of parents loosing children to drug abuse that would see the seller let off the hook.
    Laws are required to act as a detterant. ok some still break them however imagine if we did DECRIMINALISE it how many of the people that are affraid of the law would experiment with usage.

    I am a candidate in this election but a candidate not without fault. As a teenager i was drug addicted and went through rehab 3 times. It was not until a loss of life of a close friend and a very serious warning from the police did i stop.

    Some people will never stop using it. some you can help with rehab and councilling but while it is illegal it stops at least a further 30-40% of kids who are affraid of the law from even trying it.

    As for the Dems we are not dead yet and we are rebuilding.
    Unlike the major parties that are blessed with big donations and also the Green Machine that recieves plenty of donations as well. We made some policy mistakes in the past and have had to learn the hard way on them.
    But we are back and slowly rebuilding and are endeavouring to make it a more centred party.
    better to fix something broke then start from scratch. They had in the past made a huge contribution to Australian Politics and Policy in Australia and will do so again in the future however unlike the one agenda (environment) party called the Greens and not being oportunistic in this we are seeking to rebuild our roots and represnt Australians as a whole not a 10% minority.

    Regards Keith Darely – Candidate For Chifley – Australian Democrats
    0414 720 761

  18. Question: If i sold 10 kilos of cocaine would i be arrested
    Answer: Not under this policy

    I’m sorry, who answered that? It is my understanding that if you’re caught taking drugs rehabilitation will be offered, if you’re caught dealing you’re going to prison. The Greens policy is based on the same Policies implemented in Portugal that cut the spread of HIV through syringes in half and doubled the amount of people seeking rehabilitation. Addiction should be treated as a Medical Issue and not a criminal one.

    I don’t think it is fair to call the Greens a one platform party. We partake in something called Green Economics, which basically means “No jobs on a dead planet” so we want a sustainable economy and a sustainable environment, sustainable doesn’t necessarily mean weak. We support a disability insurance scheme, we support a Government right to veto a land-buying deal in the interest of Food security, we spearheaded the campaign against the Filter and we support a 6-month paid parental leave scheme and we also support High speed rails connecting the major cities on the east coast (up to 350kmh) – though Labor/Liberal voted down the proposal, Labor has now adopted it. We have so many more great policies, we don’t have the backings of some of the Great economic minds of our planet for nothing.

    Anyway, good luck with your campaign, just 8 more days!

  19. Ben – the only thing I would say to your last post is that those young Green voters will migrate to one of the major parties once they start working in the real world. Their priorities will change when they want to buy a house, get married, have a family, send their kids to school and then retire. They are likely to progress to one of the major parties in their late 20’s depending in part on their occupation – many first to the ALP and then to the co-alition as they retire. To prove my point; why do 60% of people aged over 65 vote co-alition now? It’s not as if they voted co-alition in their teens and twenties, or we would probably have had a co-alition government between 1940-1980 without any change; and we didn’t.

    My main point being that priorities change over one’s lifetime. A Green vote is largely a young vote that will change as people become fully employed and have families, and become (dare I say) selfish and concerned more with personal tax, economy, health and education.

    The major risk for the Greens is that the major parties get their act together regarding environmental policies which will make the Greens largely irrelevant and redundant to large sections of the Green vote. That could happen in the next 5-10 years. Most Green voters I know vote Green because of environmental concerns, not because of social justice issues.

    I’d also suggest the Green candidate in Melbourne will win, not entirely due to Green policies, but due to a lack of satisfaction with either of the mainstream parties, particularly the ALP in that seat. Therefore, this would indicate there is a gap to be filled between the two major parties, but it has to be a party that is considered credible in all areas of major policy and not just primarily on environmental and social issues.

  20. I don’t see why people would leave the Greens as there priorities change. The Greens have sensible policies to address all of the things that people face in there day-to-day lives. The NSW Teacher Federation says the Greens have the best Education policy, leading Economists say we have sound economic policy, many Unions are leaving Labor and backing the Greens. Maybe some of that is a protest, but we’re now in a position to prove what we can do, I think people will realise we’re not a single issue party anymore.

  21. Interesting:
    Forget my candidacy as a Democrat for a moment:
    Unions make up 20% of the Australian workforce: so it is a minority

    Trades and Services industry to which i am in as an Electrician / Self Employed have by all major parties and certainley the Greens been neglected ie:
    1. Having unions negotiate wages and start strikes hurst us small business that do not have any more money to give. it is fair to say the employees should get more but where does the small business get it from with out putting protective measures in place in the market to stop backyard operators undercutting us.
    2. Rising taxes both company / payroll and carbon and the rising cost of materials total an average increase of 38% each year this coupled with as i have experienced first hand the unions forced yearly pay rise for my employees due to strikes of 15% each year total 53% in cost rise for a small business each year. if we as a business put our prices up each year by 53% you would say that is unfair. So where in all the policies of the Greens the Labor and the Liberal parties does any policy cater for small business.As costs rise we let go of staff so the unemployment rises, we as small business use the retrenchment of staff to maintian profit levels meaning less staff more work hours and less family time.
    3. All of this coupled with the fact that there is no legal protection for trade business against customers ie: building compaing declaring bankruptcy and not paying us or paying us late but we still have to find money to pay employees.
    4. so we go the the bank who tells us due to the current financial crisis mostly started by the above they can not loan us money.

    Reckless policy from all parties this election is what will hurt employees and small business.
    Australia is unique in the sense it has the worlds largest ratio of small business / family business it actually makes up over 70% of the employment market however no party wants to look at the real issues small business is hurting.

    This is why i joined the Democrats and i am putting policy together that is fair to employees but also small business owners. Before you can ask the business’s to pay more money you need policy in place to protect their earnings so they can adjust the costings and sell prices fairly to cover the rise in living costs with employees.

    However if any Government keeps spending the savings of this country then stimulus for business to do this can not happen.

    Out of the stimulus handed out you would be suprised how much more the economy could have recovered if it was in part or full given to small business instead of housing commision social welfare cheats (not all of them are but some) i know plenty that got that money and put it into a poker machine or brought drugs, that same money could have created jobs and been used to invest in Australian small business which would have a long impact on the economy that would have repaid it quicker through taxes then the interest each taxpayer will pay $100,000,000 per day for 30 years.
    The Democrats are sensible as they are moderate between those far left socialist views and far right capitalist views however with out as the above puts it the UNIONS many millions of dollars donations to our party it is hard to get the message out there.
    Last if an employee is paying union membership that fee is for workplace assistance not political donations many union members are neither Green or Labor voters and there money should not be given to a political party. This is why union membership is at an all time low of 20%. If a union is fair dinkum about representing employees then it would remain part and politically nuetral and no misuse employees fees to fund thir own beliefs.

    Keith Darley
    Australian Democrats
    Chifley Candidate
    0414 720 761

  22. Each taxpayer will pay $100m per day?

    Damn, I’d better take out a loan.

    (Seriously though, I really doubt that $100m figure has any basis. It’s been pretty heavily disputed.)

  23. My prediction: Labor retain, may have been a 4-5% swing to Liberals if they hadn’t stuffed up with their candidate, I’d go for 2% now.

  24. Well they are putting Labor 2nd, so it makes absolutely no difference where they put One Nation or the Liberal.

  25. I’m afraid the Greens are just a bunch of Trotskyite dills whose economic policies are somewhere to the left of Chairman Mao.

  26. Regarding the newly elected MP for this seat, Ed Husic, how do you say his surname? Is it Hu-sich or Hu-shich? I know a fair bit about Southern Slavic names, having a friend from Bosnia myself, but no online sources bother to put in the right characters for his name…

  27. Hey Matt.

    I’m not actually sure either but once I said Husic and someone corrected me, telling me the H is silent. I’v assumed Oo-sic but I’m not really sure. . He doesn’t take offense at Husic, though.

Comments are closed.