Casey – Election 2010

LIB 5.9%

Incumbent MP
Tony Smith, since 2001.

Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Casey covers parts of the Yarra Ranges and Maroondah council area. Major suburbs include Lilydale, Montrose, Mooroolbark and Croydon.

History
Casey was created for the 1969 election and has almost always been considered to be a marginal seat. Despite the slim margins, the Liberal Party has managed to hold onto the seat consistently since 1984, after an early period where the ALP managed to hold it during the Whitlam government and the Hawke government’s first term.

Casey was first won in 1969 by Peter Howson. Howson had been Member for Fawkner since 1955, and had served as Minister for Air from 1964 until John Gorton’s first cabinet reshuffle, when he was dropped. He returned to cabinet as Australia’s first Minister for the Environment in William McMahon’s cabinet in 1971, but lost his seat in 1972 to the ALP’s Race Mathews.

Mathews held Casey for both terms of the Whitlam government, losing the seat to Peter Falconer (LIB) in 1975. Mathews went on to hold the Victorian state seat of Oakleigh from 1979 until 1992, and served as a state minister from 1982 to 1988.

Peter Falconer was reelected in 1977 and 1980, but lost Casey to the ALP’s Peter Steedman in 1983. Steedman held the seat for one term, and lost to Liberal Bob Halverson in 1984.

The Liberal Party never lost Casey again, and Halverson went on to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the first term of the Howard government until his retirement in 1998.

Casey was won in 1998 by Dr Michael Wooldridge, the Howard government’s Health Minister. Wooldridge had previously held Chisholm since 1987, moving to Casey in 1998. He held it for one term before retiring from politics in 2001.

The seat was won in 2001 by Tony Smith. Smith was appointed Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister in January 2007 and joined the shadow cabinet after the defeat of the Howard government. He is currently Shadow Minister for Communications.

Candidates

• Tony Smith (Liberal)
• Sami Hisheh (Labor)
• Daniel Harrison (Family First)
• Brendan Powell (Greens)

Political situation
This seat, while marginal, has trended towards the Liberals over the last two decades and, despite a large swing to the ALP in 2007, is still held by a 5.9% margin. The ALP would need a very strong result to win Casey.

2007 result

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Casey have been divided into four areas. Booths in Maroondah council area have been grouped as ‘West’. The booths in the Shire of Yarra Ranges have been divided into three areas. Those booths closest to Maroondah in a largely built-up area have been grouped as ‘Central’, with those in the more sparsely-populated areas split into ‘South’ and ‘East’.

The largest proportion of the seat is in the Central area, followed by those in the West area. Both of these areas were won by the Liberal Party with 54-6% of the two-party preferred vote. The less populated south-eastern part of the seat was the only area won by the ALP, with the Liberals winning a majority of over 60% in the north-east of the seat.