LIB 4.3%
Incumbent MP
Don Randall, since 2001.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including most of the Peel region. Canning covers the City of Armadale on the edge of Perth as well as the local government areas of Boddington, Murray, Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Waroona in the Peel region. Canning also covers most of the coastal City of Mandurah.
Redistribution
Canning moved south, losing territory north of Armadale to Hasluck and Tangney, including the suburbs of Huntingdon and Canning Vale. Prior to the redistribution, Canning only covered those parts of Mandurah south of the Peel Inlet, and the redistribution saw Canning take in the Mandurah CBD. Canning also gained Boddington Shire from Pearce. The redistribution cut the Liberal margin from 5.6% to 4.3%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Ricky Johnston (LIB), who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Jane Gerick (ALP) in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Don Randall (LIB) in 2001, and Randall has held the seat ever since, holding it by a 5.6% margin in 2007.
Candidates
- Alannah MacTiernan (Labor) – state MP for Armadale from 1996 to 2010 and former state Minister for Planning and Infrastructure.
- Don Randall (Liberal) – Member for Canning since 2001.
- Darren Vernede (Family First)
- Denise Hardie (Greens)
- Jamie Van Burgel (Christian Democratic Party)
- Ian Tuffnell (Citizens Electoral Council)
Political situation
MacTiernan is a strong candidate, as state MP for a large proportion of the federal electorate and former minister. Randall has held the seat for over a decade but his margin is not particularly large.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Randall | LIB | 42,639 | 49.70 | -3.04 |
| John Hughes | ALP | 31,699 | 36.95 | +4.07 |
| Denise Reid | GRN | 6,396 | 7.45 | +2.40 |
| Kevin Swarts | CDP | 2,427 | 2.83 | +0.42 |
| Brian Deane | ON | 1,264 | 1.47 | -1.26 |
| Rodney Grasso | FF | 1,112 | 1.30 | +0.29 |
| Brian McCarthy | CEC | 261 | 0.30 | -0.56 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Randall | LIB | 47,689 | 55.58 | -3.96 |
| John Hughes | ALP | 38,109 | 44.42 | +3.96 |
Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.
Booth breakdown
While the seat includes large rural areas, most of the population lives in two urban areas. Over 40% of votes in 2007 were cast in Armadale and over 30% cast in Mandurah. The Liberal Party won a majority in all regions, but only won a narrow majority in Armadale, winning larger majorities in the rest of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| Armadale | 9.18 | 50.87 | 25,628 | 41.78 |
| Mandurah | 6.43 | 55.38 | 20,151 | 32.85 |
| Serpentine-Jarrahdale | 8.33 | 60.33 | 6,484 | 10.57 |
| Murray | 6.21 | 56.00 | 6,429 | 10.48 |
| Waroona-Boddington | 5.55 | 57.92 | 2,650 | 4.32 |
| Other votes | 7.89 | 56.12 | 15,349 |
Interesting the sharp voting divide in Mandurah. I’m assuming the areas with Labor majorities were all in Brand in 2007?
MDM: Possibly, but Mandurah does have a rich / poor divide like that. In state parliament, Dawesville (west of the estuary, more retired folk and beach lovers) is pretty safe for the Libs, but Mandurah is one of Labor’s safest seats. Funny thing is, it was Liberal too until 2001, and got big fat swings to ALP on 2001 and 2005… even one of the few ALP swings in 2008, which is possibly due to the Mandurah line.
Speaking of which, if MacTiernan campaigns on having been in charge of building the railway, I’d expect to see her vote go up in Mandurah, particularly east of the estuary (where the line ends). The candidate last time was actually from Mandurah, but rather low-profile… I thought he was the other John Hughes until I googled him. (No, not the 16 Candles guy… other other John Hughes. Everyone in Perth knows who he is.)
As for Armadale and Kelmscott, you can see where the phrase ‘wrong side of the tracks’ comes from – that divide between Labor and Liberal booths is the Armadale line and Albany Hwy. West of that line are some of the suburbs in Perth you least want to be in after dark, like Westfield; to the east, it’s much nicer houses on the upper reaches of the Canning River and getting into the hills.
Mandurah was one of the 4 or so seats that actually swung to Labor at the last State Election (as was MacTiernans seat of Armadale). The state MP David Templeman is a charismatic guy and has turned Mandurah from a safe Liberal Seat into a safe Labor Seat with only a little bit of help from boundary changes.
Yes, the inlet (which is clear on the map) was the boundary between Brand and Canning in 2007.
It would be great to see three party preferred outcomes as well as two party for seats where the margin is within 5-10.
A margin of 5 would be short term, showing that a different party is still in the running for this seat depending on preference flows. Whereas a 10% margin could be for areas would in the future could go to the third party.
Just new to this website and really liking the coverage, hungry for more. 🙂
This is an interesting electorate as I would argue that there is little community of interest within the seat. Armadale is generally a strong Labor area mixed with the unrelated Mandurah, where there is a very strong Liberal:Labor divide with an expanse of conservative semi-rural areas wedged in between.
I know that McTiernan has a strong following in her former State electorate of Armadale (65% 2PP) that would not match the 2PP count in the 2007 election. She should also benefit in Mandurah due to her key involvement with the Mandurah rail project and road bypass. However, any potential voter backlash against Labor may counteract the effect of her candidacy.
Personally, I think the probability that MacTiernan being defeated by Randall is a foregone conclusion and the real battle to watch will be the Armadale by-election itself.
Given that MacTiernan fulfilled none of her election promises that had her carried on in 2008 and that the region has suffered a marked decrease in funding as a result of her becoming an ex-minister, local feeling has it that a change is desired for by the electorate.
Liberal candidate Steve Innes was by far the most impressive debutant for what is the safest state Labor seat and he could actually end up with a win this time around, should he elect to stand for and gain preselection again, and there is no reason why he should not.
I think he might be an effective member for Armadale, going on what I recall of his media and the policies and values he extolled.
I am actually looking forward to this.
Family First are running Darren Vernede, who runs a commercial cleaning business.
The Greens are running Denise Hardie, a child health and indigenous family support worker.
This will be a contest…… previously Labor had troubles with their candidate…….. this time a strong candidate has been chosen….. also I suspect Mr Randall has NO personal vote3
Tipsy, dream about it. Armadale’s so safe for Labor that the Libs didn’t even bother to contest it in 2001… they left it to the mayor of Armadale as an independent. Also, last time I caught a train down to Murdoch the railway promise looked pretty fulfilled to me. A bit late and over budget, as generally happens, but streets ahead of anything the NSW govt can come up with. (If Alannah gets in and becomes transport minister, NSW Labor won’t know what’s hit it.)
I reckon there’ll be a fair bit of correction Labor’s way compared to the last two elections; then again, Canning already got the largest swing of any Perth seat in 2007. For some reason, country WA (Pearce, O’Connor, Kalgoorlie, Forrest) got more swing to Labor than Perth; Canning was a standout. Then again, it’s half rural itself, which could partly explain that. It’d be interesting to see the swings down to booth level, on maps like this… not sure if the AEC has that data.
Oh, here we go. Randall arcs up about Gillard’s atheism:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/25/2963556.htm
I heard on the teev this morning that a local poll had Canning at 50/50, a big reversal from the mining tax polls. No link sorry, but this seat may be more in play than we imagine.
Here we go. 51-49 to Labor in Canning. 54-46 to Labor in Hasluck. Libs to hold Cowan and Swan (no figures). It looks like an approximate 400 people were polled per electorate, so not a big sample.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/womens-votes-to-win-canning-for-labor-poll-shows/story-e6frfku0-1225896356985
How are the Greens polling in Canning?
Hardie is well known in roleystone and Armadale for her community work. Seems to be able to deliver and the cynics among us might say that she and Alannah seem to work in tandem.
In the report, it said that Don was polling above Alannah on the primary vote, so clearly Hardie is taking quite a few votes of Alannah (which will ultimately go back to her eventually), is there any chance that Hardie could win the seat here, or are we looking at a standard Libs/Labor tussle?
It really seems like the battle will be won in Armadale, agree? This is the first time that I’ve seriously concentrated on the candidates for the seat, so I’m unsure of how important it is to win certain areas?
Possibly Don could split the vote with Alannah in Mandurah, but will lose Armadale?
The Greens won’t get one third of the vote of either major party. It’s a straight Lib v Lab contest.
Could be a good one to watch- Alannah is well loved in Armadale and Hardie has been a strong contender in past elections with lots of community connections. Greens have polled well in areas like Dwellingup, Jarrahdale and Roleystone .Alannah has the Armadale and Mandurah vote in the bag.
Randall is losing favour with his Wilson tuckey like rants on the redneck favourites of refugees, law and order and mining tax. Not to mention his personal attacks on Alannah and school children running across Albany highway holding his signs that didnt go down too well. Rumour has it that he had bikini babes up at Armadale yesterday handing out flyers……
Greens preferences will get Alannah over the line for sure
Talked to Alannah when she came down the Miami Plaza on the weekend, I asked her why I should vote for her over Denise, her quote:
“I don’t mind if you vote for Denise first, just as long as you give me your second preference!”
She looked to be doing a good job connecting with locals, better than Don ever has… I think she’s gonna wrap this one up!
of course allanah doesn’t mind you placing her second, a vote for greens goes to labour anyway!
Not quite Dazza, people need to realise they can direct there own preferences.
Westpoll has Greens polling at 14% , if so I’d say its game over for Randall.
By electin has been called for Armadale for Oct 8th , maybe he can put his hand up for a state seat instead! LOL! Iron.ic if he ends up with Alannahs old seat
The Westpoll showed a fairly small swing back to Labor, so that wouldn’t be enough for Labor to win the seat. Would give them confidence for holding Hasluck, though.
Personally I found the jump from 8% to 14% for the Greens a bit hard to swallow…..
Peter: That’s because Alannah’s a real person 🙂 I got the opportunity to meet her on the campaign trail and she’s obviously in her element. Don’t forget the biggest anti-Labor swings in 2004 (17%!) were in Alannah heartland – if she got just Armadale to swing disproportionately and the rest of the electorate didn’t swing at all, she’d be over the line.
I ignore the Westpoll as I think voters in WA have very much their own minds – the Westpoll before the 2005 and 2008 state elections really didn’t tell us anything useful at all.
An odd feature I don’t know if anyone’s noticed, but at state and federal level the Christian parties (CDP and FFP) do the best they do anywhere in Perth in Armadale. Usually around 8-9%.
Yeah, I’ve noticed that. The Goirans, frequent candidates / main organisers for the CDP, tend to run for seats in the south-eastern suburbs – last state election one ran in Gosnells (a few km closer to the city, similar kind of place), the other in East Metro region in the upper house. I imagine they live in that neck of the woods, and quite possibly there’s a church they’re based at round there. (It’d be a small, traditional church… as far as I can tell, the Pentecostal megachurch happy-clappers are more Family First.)
Also, FF in WA has mainly been a vehicle used by failed Liberals to try to get back into parliament… Anthony Fels and Dan Sullivan both had an unsuccessful go at that in 2008. They’ve never been particularly major here, although I seem to remember FF did better out of the christian parties in the south-west. I’ll dig up my spreadsheet and find the data sometime, probably tomorrow.
anyone know anything about candidates for Armadale by election? Only heard of Tony Buti for ALP but nothing from elsewhere. A by election so close after a fed election will be stretching the resources of the minor parties for sure.
family first is not a minor christian party. they are a party made up of people from many walks of life. they are simply put a family oriented party with christians, catholics and input from jews,hindu, muslim and even agnostics who place the needs of all families to the fore.
i wish everyone would get off trying to pigeon hole family first as a minor christian party. they have put up over 100 candidates in this federal election.
heres a news flash for you Dazza , most political parties are made up of people from all walks of life – but unlike family first some parties are actually inclusive of gay people too . Heres another news flash- gay people have families too!!
Dazza, family first has very close links to a number of evangelical churches. It’s like Labor and the unions, the Greens and the environmental movement. They are intrinsictly linked.
Gut feeling is that Alannah will gain Canning on name value. If she does win I suspect she’ll be the ALP’s only gain in WA.
The only reason that I brought up Alannah’s comment about the Greens is because… Is there any chance that the Greens first preference vote could increase so substantially that it becomes a Lab/Grn race, and Libs get knocked out before 2PP. I think absolutely not, but still… food for thought, Green vote has been rapidly increasing in WA.
In other news, I’ve noticed Alannah is campaigning quite heavily with David Templeman, obviously who is very popular in Mandurah. Armadale already wrapped up? 🙂
It is very true that Alannah was well loved in Armadale due to the fact she brought a lot of state and federal money into that electorate, as well as developement, during her time as Minister for Planning and Infrastructure.
That however, came to and end immediately after Sept 8, 2008 when Labor lost government and MaCtiernan lost relevance, power and infuence as she was no longer Minister of anything and all the benefits she had to offer her electorate dried up over night.
True, the Armadale electorate elected her back in, but with the expectation that the good times would roll on and who really expected the party to be sent into oppostion?
In truth, Mactiernan has delivered on none of the promises she made to retain her seat in 2008 and the Armadale electorate has experienced a hefty downturn in recieved funding and many projects have been shelved or downgraded and the Labor brand has soured is not held in such high regard now.
As Armadale is not an important electorate to the Liberal government, is is common sense really that it should be ignored to further erode MacTiernans currency and relevance and to possibly pave the way for an eventual sitting Liberal member (Steve Innes perhaps?) and all the potential benefits a new government, and not oppostion, member could bring.
The Liberals were really quite shrewd in not fielding an Armadale candidate for the 2001 election in light of all this, as now they have an opportunity that is actually historic.
For anyone from over east who mistakenly thinks these pro-Liberal shills are talking sense: Armadale is currently held by Labor with a 14.8% margin, and is the safest Labor seat in the state.
Harriet, or anyone else: find an example, state or federal, of a government winning a by-election from an opposition with a 15% swing or greater, and then I’ll bother listening to you. Have fun.
My prediction for the Armadale by-election: ALP 60, Grn 30, CDP / others 10. Libs to sit it out for the biggest non-event since the Murdoch by-election a few years ago (safe Liberal, no contest from ALP, similar figures).
Meanwhile, in Canning: the Sunday Times reckons ALP internal polling has them a few hundred votes behind Randall. This was in a very small story swamped by two pages screaming of Labor’s catastrophic loss of two seats next Saturday: Hasluck and… Swan. Yep, they counted the notionally-held redistributed seat.
Haha! Beat me to the punch Birds, I noticed that story too, makes Alannah’s story that much more incredible in that the general swing and mood in WA is so anti-Labor.
These swings don’t happen in isolation, though…..if Labor are struggling with swings against them in Hasluck and Swan it seems hard to credit them getting a 5% swing to them in Canning.
I agree MDM. I reckon it is a beat up.
Well, Canning got the biggest swing to the Libs in the country in 2004. That was partly due to Labor’s candidate dramas at that election, which will reverse big time now that they’ve got one high-profile candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Canning with a larger ALP margin than Hasluck after the election.
MacTiernan increased her margin in a losing government by 1.8% at the 2008 election, she’s clearly popular as far as politicians go. Canning obviously has some tough conservative territory (and an attack dog in Randall), but lucky for her it just so happens she was the minister to deliver the Mandurah line, which also oddly sits in her electorate. I think her stars are aligned, will win by a few hundred votes, will be very interesting to watch particularly if no party has gained a majority once the WA votes are tallied.
My prediction: Liberal retain, narrowly, 3% swing to Labor. I doubt MacTiernan can do well enough to overcome the generally poor standing for Labor in WA. Though, I’m a long way away on the east coast, so won’t be shocked to get this wrong.
Just voted, as I have work all day on election day 🙂 Completely my civic duties! 😉
@ Harriet…good to see that the libs have grabbed this historic opportunity with both hands…by not fielding a candidate. MacTiernan did great things for Armadale…that’s why she had such a huge margin. Your comment that nothing has happened since in Armadale speaks more about the attitude of the Liberal party towards it than anything else. Shame on them, propping up the western suburbs as usual and ignoring the se corridor.
Interesting little factoid: Canning had the lowest Greens vote in WA, with 8.0%. The next two up the list were O’Connor and Durack (rural / outback), and the next lowest Green vote in the Perth metro area was 11.4% in Swan. Also, Labor got the only swing to them in WA here, with 2.8%; their next best was the 1.1% swing against them that looks to have tipped them out in Hasluck. I’m guessing there’s a fair few potential Greens voters who went straight for Alannah, not that it helped in the end. 🙁
nine years of sweet FA from Randall so looks like another four years of sweet FA.
Interesting breakdown on poll booth figures- Alannah very well recieved in the Armadale end of the electorate but lost out down the south end
Rise of the religous right bit of a concern
Well, the Armadale by-election happened today. (I didn’t vote, despite being enrolled, due to work intruding and it being a nothing of an election anyway.) The results, with swings in brackets:
ALP 57.9% (1.8%)
CDP 20.6% (13.2%)
Greens 12.8% (2.5%)
Tucak 8.7%
2pp figure was 71.0% to Labor, vs CDP. I bet you think I’ve stuffed up my numbers there… nope. The CDP came second on primaries and 2pp, possibly for the first time ever, with what I imagine would be their highest primary vote ever. There’s gonna be some happy hymns sung in their local church tomorrow morning. Interesting to compare it with the Willagee by-election last year (also in the outer southern suburbs of Perth), where the Greens came second and the CDP only got 6.9%.