Blaxland – Election 2010

ALP 16.6%

Incumbent MP
Jason Clare, since 2007.

Geography
South-western Sydney. Blaxland covers large parts of the City of Bankstown. A majority of the seat lies in Bankstown council area, along with small parts of Fairfield, Holroyd, Parramatta and Auburn council areas. It covers the centre of Bankstown and the suburbs of Condell Park, Yagoona, Georges Hall, Bass Hill, Birrong, Chester Hill, Villawood, Carramar, Guildford, Yennora, Regents Park and parts of Fairfield and Granville.

Redistribution
Blaxland changed substantially around its fringes. It lost Cabramatta to Fowler and Greenacre and Chullora to Watson. In exchange Blaxland expanded to the south and north, gaining more of Bankstown council area from Banks and expanding into Guildford and South Granville, gaining territory from Reid.

History
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1949.

Blaxland was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate James Harrison. Harrison defeated former NSW Labor premier Jack Lang, who had won the seat of Reid as an independent in 1946.

Harrison held Blaxland as a Labor backbencher for twenty years, retiring in 1969. He was succeeded by 25-year-old Paul Keating. Keating quickly rose through the ranks of the ALP, joining Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1975. Keating went on to serve as Treasurer in the Hawke government and after a period of turmoil was elected Labor leader in 1991, becoming Prime Minister.

Keating was re-elected as Prime Minister at the 1993 election, but lost the 1996 election. Following his defeat he resigned as Member for Blaxland.

The ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Michael Hatton. Hatton held the seat for the entirety of the Howard government, but was challenged for preselection in 2007 to Jason Clare, a former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who had the support of the NSW Labor Party executive, and Clare won the seat at the 2007 election.

Candidates

  • Richard Phillips (Socialist Equality Party)
  • Malikeh Michels (Greens)
  • David Ball (Independent)
  • Abdul Charaf (Independent)
  • Jason Clare (Labor) – Member for Blaxland since 2007.
  • Mark Majewski (Liberal)
  • Ronald Poulsen (Independent)
  • Bob Vinnicombe (One Nation)

Political situation
This seat is very safe for the Labor Party. Clare should easily win re-election.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jason Clare ALP 47,495 61.32 +5.09
Mark Majewski LIB 18,665 24.10 -5.34
John Ky GRN 5,004 6.46 +1.14
Chris McLachlan CDP 1,850 2.39 -0.14
Harry Stavrinos IND 1,535 1.98 +1.98
Bob Vinnicombe ON 1,202 1.55 -1.86
Gabrielle Kent FF 1,183 1.53 +1.53
Raul Bassi SA 522 0.67 +0.17

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jason Clare ALP 52,953 68.37 +3.14
Mark Majewski LIB 24,503 31.63 -3.14

These results do not take into consideration the effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
A significant majority of Blaxland is included in Bankstown council area. I have divided booths into three areas: “North”, “Central” and “South”. The Northern area covers booths in Parramatta, Auburn and Holroyd council areas, including the suburbs of Guildford, South Granville and Berala.

The Central area includes the Fairfield part of Blaxland as well as those booths in Bankstown council area north of the M5 motorway. Suburbs include Potts Hill, Birrong, Sefton, Chester Hill, Villawood and Carramar. The southern area covers Georges Hall, Condell Park and Bankstown.

The ALP polled over 65% in all areas, polling over 69% in the central parts of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Blaxland. North in green, Central in orange, South in blue.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Central 6.23 69.64 25,054 37.22
North 4.58 66.15 21,398 31.79
South 5.08 65.34 20,865 31.00
Other votes 6.84 65.27 13,115
Results of the 2007 federal election in Blaxland.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Until I moved last year, this was my local seat, and there is a depressing push for nothing but Labor in the area. The Labor right stronghold is aggressive, and comments by members of the Labor Party in the area suggested Jason Clare didn’t come to this seat by proving to be the better candidate.
    I would love to see the seat drop from its position as a very safe/safe Labor seat in 2010, but the likelihood is slim. The effort that went into the neighbouring Banks to achieve the same would have little effect on a largely working-class area, which remained strongly Labor throughout the Howard years.
    One interesting titbit I can add, though, is that this seat has one of the highest informal voting percentages I’ve ever seen, if I remember correctly it was about 10% at the 2007 election.

  3. Why is there no advertising ,or any signs of liberals in the blaxland area?
    i only see labour around.i had to get on the net to find out who my candidate is.
    common guys !!! wake up’

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