Dunkley by-election, 2024

@nimalan i think if the liberals can pick it up at this by election they may be able to hold it at the general election. if they put the resources into Carrum and Patterson Lakes (the area most likely to be added) i think they can hold it with an ani govt vote coming in

Sabena, isn’t talking yourself down the Australian way? Scomo would always say they were the underdog. Just like QLD at state of origin time. If you talk yourself up people will cut you down.

@ John
I honestly believe the economy will determine the fate of the government. The issue is that Dunkley is not a socially conservative electorate it is very irreligious so trans issues etc will not be an issue. If there was a general election today according to Newspoll it is pretty much a status quo result from May 2022. The Liberals are campaigning on inflation in Dunkley for a reason.

My projection
-Along the Frankston Line and Frankston South – Labor, a little or even a small positive swing to Labor TPP since it is more socially progressive as indicated from the Voice Referendum where LNP anti-intellectual and culture war strategy might have alienated some Socially Progressive Liberal Party Voters
– Carrum Downs//Karrigal – A sizable but unknown swing against Labor as a large number of tradies live there and Dutton made a massive campaign to Tradespeople in Dunkley. Plus, it has a large No vote for the voice referendum indicating while they might not be socially religious conservative like on LGBT and Abortion issues, they are still socially conservative on Racial Relations and Law and Order.
– Southern Dunkley- A potential Wildcard, A higher Yes Vote on the Voice might have alienated some traditionally moderate Lib Voters (a large percentage of voters) as a result of LNP anti-intellectualism and culture wars however at the same time, it is the wealthiest and old money part of Dunkley where Labor’s revised Stage 3 tax cut meant many voters there might have gotten less tax cuts

@ Marh
I agree with you. A lot of the commentary has been about Carrum Downs, a low income mortgage belt area. I am really interested in Langwarrin which is also a tradie suburb but very middle class and almost a caricature of middle Australia. It is more affluent than Carrum Downs.

@nimalan I think they would hold it on a reduced margin especially with petals Murphy dead however the by election throws a soanner in the works

Interesting how the (Australian) Democrats are running. I almost forgot they exist. They were resurrected but are just a shadow of their former self. They got 0.75% primary for the Senate in Victoria (the party’s birthplace) in 2022 and weren’t even in the top 10.

I wouldn’t be the surprised if the Democrats come last in Dunkley. The donkey vote potential (they’re 2nd last on the ballot) and lack of name recognition amongst Millenials and Gen Z won’t do them favours. Gen X’ers and boomers who have once voted for them might have forgotten about them or mistakingly think it’s an imitation of the old party or the US Democrats.

I am in my mid-twenties, but I mourn the demise of the Australian Democrats. I am politically homeless without them.

I would say the Teals are the closest thing to the Australian Democrats. Interestingly, former leader, Meg Lees, is an advisor to Climate 200. I suspect that the Australian Democrats will do better among those who more politically engaged and probably around Mount Eliza where people who want a Teal option and are more engaged will vote for them but i dont expect it to be high.

We’re only three days out from the Dunkley by-election!

@votante I’d wager the democrats will beat animal justice and socialists. Expect them to run 6th
@marh I’d Imagine this will be too close to call. Albo is underestimating t laborhere to avoid being too complacent liberals are definitely the underdogs given the margin and circumstances of the by election

I think allot of Liberals are over-hyping this and will be disappointed (even though they will get about a 3-4% swing) this is Victoria. This is the Frankston line, this area is full of Eshays and Youth crime. This isn’t going Liberal. Bruce Billson is gone. (this would have been Labor in 2007 and 2010 if not for him)

That’s a study I’m interested in “The voting patterns of Eshays”.

I think it is more the eastern part of Dunkley is where the “eshays” live, that area is conservative on Racial (especially on Indigenous Issues and Australia Day) and Law and order issues but not on LGBT/Abortion

@Witness eshays are teenagers, so they don’t vote.

Eshays would be the classic Labor voter but vote No in the referendum. Don’t think the Libs would do particularly well among them.

@daniel t youll find that we liberals dont expect to win on saturday and that we are actualy hoping to get an upset win but we fully expect labor to retain the seat. while labor and albo claim the average swing is 7% its actually 5.9% but thats in a normal by election. the average swing due to a death is 2.7%. so a 4% swing is a win for the libs

@Nether Portal Eshays were teenagers in 2012, they should vote now but probably aren’t even enrolled.

@Dan M, Correct although they are often open to One Nation in certain situations.
They are the ones that support Gay Marriage, irreligious but then espouse Anglocentrism (Immigrants and Aboriginals must respect Anglo Values etc), Pro-Jan 26 but then pro union

@ John,
I honestly do think it will be very close and the Libs could in fact win it like you said. I think if they by-election was held in November/December last year, Labor would have lost it as that was Albo’s worst days since becoming PM while if it was held after Easter, then Labor has a better chance. Today’s inflation figures were good and real wages have started to grow again For this reason even if Labor does loose i dont think there will be a leadership challenge

@Nimalan, One thing I would caution though is that lots of those indicators have a lag effect – you won’t see whether they have had a real effect for 2 or 3 months.

@ MLV
I actually agree with you, i dont expect it will see an immediate benefit. However, it is about the trajectory. The Governments key test is whether it can bring inflation under control without causing a recession. The economy IMHO will determine the fact of the government.

True, but from a Dunkley POV it is probably too late to have an affect.

@ MLV
Do you think if Labor loses Dunkley on Saturday they will be a leadership challenge to Albo?

@nimalan doubt it they way the rules work now you basically need to lose an election to face a challenge that goes for both parties. short of running over a nun in broad daylight

I’m curious to hear what the expected dynamics of leadership scuffles within the Labor Party nowadays would look like.

Who would the contenders be? Who would the “warlords” be? What role would the factions play?

The issue is that if there is a leadership scuffle it will no doubt be an act of self-harm as it will lead to vendetta. We have seen this since June 2010 in both parties, a leadership change may lead to a short term sugar hit but does not last. One key difference between Albo in 2024 and Rudd in 2010 is that Albo has got most of his key legislation through the senate so less gridlock. The Help to Buy is outstanding

@nicolas jim chalmers would most likely be the leader if albo were dumped. the left faction of the labor party control the majority. when albo is beaten at an election he will retire. plibersek is on her last legs too.

I don’t know about Melbourne, but eshays/lads have been a cultural phenomenon here in Western Sydney since at least the mid-2000s (and probably before, I just wasn’t old enough to be aware of the term). There would be plenty of eshays whose children are voters now, let alone the irstfay enerationgay adlays.

While the only public poll has the Libs ahead 51-49, the only certainty here is that if the Liberals cannot win this seat now, they will have no chance at a general election. The Libs have the luck of ballot draw and fewer conservative candidates going their way, and Advance has spent a bucketload on misinformation. If they cannot win a by-election under these circumstances, the Labor candidate will have a year to establish herself as the local member. The Libs would have no chance in 12 months time, so desperately need to win now (which probably explains the big ad spend).

@Nimalan. Short answer, No. Long answer, who would challenge? Shorten, who got beaten by Morrison, and who is doing a good but thankless job as NDIS minister? Chalmers, Bowen, Burke? Dutton would be laughing. Plibersek would be good, but a certain type of Labor voter would switch to Dutton overnight without gaining anything. Dreyfus I don’t think harbours leadership ambitions and would be bludgeoned over letting murderers and rapists onto the streets. Who else is there?

@dunkley watch that depends the election can be held as early as august as some sources within the pms office say hes going this year. and if she turns out to be a dud and with such a narrow margin it wont be hard to for the libs to win at a general election.
@mostly it would be chalmers. Shorten is of the right and the left has the numbers. Bowens a joke and Burke dont even get me started. Plibersek had her chnace in 2019. she has been in parliament just as long as albo and will be on the way out after probably the next election if she doesnt retire this coming election. albo will be gone by 2028. depends in whether he wins govt in 2025 as to how long before. Dreyfus is also of th e right i think? and i think heskocking on retirements door as well. there will be an exodus before the 2028 election. just ike the 2013 election.

@john Chalmers is of the right but he is the obvious successor to Albanese at the moment. Not that it’s very likely there would be a leadership change, even on the slim chance the Libs win on Saturday.

@Dunkley Watch
The sample size for that poll was only 394, which Dr Kevin Bonham called “adventurously low given the issues with seat polls”. The local conspiracy nutter, Mr Bergwerf, who got 3.9% in 2022 from poll position, is credited in that poll with an inflated 7%. In 2022 just over half of Bergwerf votes went to Labor on prefs.
Various people have unconvincing reasons for why the Libs will at least go close. Jeff Kennett took the prize for the silliest the other day by saying that voter apathy would help the libs. It’s unclear why having fewer conservative candidates would help the Libs in a preferential system, because overall prefs will flow more strongly to Labor than in 2022. Don’t presume the 5% Palmer voters in 2022 were all Tories, not confused.

@adam neither leader will be changed regardless of the result. Unless there’s a huge swing.

@MLV
I dont know who the challenger will be and i am certainly not advising Labor to have a leadership challenge. Firstly, a challenger would need to give a reason and secondly what they would do differently. If there was a challenge then there likely will be a civil war in the Labor party like there was between 2010-2013.

Remember that the last few leaders were rolled for the following reasons
Rudd – crazy
Gillard – internal sabotage by Rudd which caused public backlash in polls
Abbott – undermining by Turnbull and internal division over polls
Turn bull- policies and as above with Abbott
Albanese has none of these things. He’s not hated and they are still ahead however slightly.

Since their last leadership spills, both major parties have made it harder to internally replace a leader. Rudd changed the rules in 2013 so that they need 75% of the caucus to call a motion against a PM.

The likelihood of a leadership spill owing to a bad by-election result is slim. First off, he won an election and became PM and 75% is a high threshold. He is not as deeply unpopular within the electorate and party room as Gillard in 2013 or Abbott in 2015. I believe the biggest thorn in Labor’s side are interest rates and inflation. If interest rates and inflation rates fall by late 2024, it would silence some criticism and can tip the economic narrative into their favour.

Chalmers was touted as a leader after the 2019 election as an option to rebuild their Queensland base. Since he’s the treasurer, he already holds a significant portfolio and it’s not uncommon for treasurers to become PMs.

If Labor loses Dunkley or barely hangs on by under 1%, it might be a blessing in disguise. It would make Labor rethink and rejig the way they connect with the outer suburbs and rebuild their base in working-class suburbs similar to Carrum Downs.

@votNte doubtful if they were capable of change they would have done it already

Big day tomorrow! I’ll be joining in on the live coverage here on the Tally Room comments.

Il be on the ground in Dunkley. Look for me on the live cross

I asked ChatGPT to write a short blurb for the by-election (I had to give it some context and background info first), this was the result:

“The Dunkley by-election, triggered by the passing of Labor MP Peta Murphy, is set to be a closely contested race in the outer southeastern suburbs of Melbourne. Traditionally a bellwether seat, Labor has held Dunkley since 2019, currently with a 6% margin. The main candidates are Jodie Belyea for Labor and Nathan Conroy for the Liberals. Belyea, a non-profit executive, faces off against Conroy, the incumbent Mayor of Frankston. The outcome of this by-election, taking place tomorrow on Saturday, 2 March 2024, will be a significant test for both Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Coalition Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.”

@John I won’t be in Melbourne on the day but what time are you gonna be there at? And will you be meeting with candidates?

There’s also the Sydney Derby (the soccer rivalry between Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers in the A-League) on tomorrow so I’ll be watching that too, as I am a huge Sydney FC fan. But I’ll be keeping up with the by-election too.

@nether portal il be there all day in Frankston from 10am at the latest. il be at the liberal after party too. probably im hoping Albo shows up too.

OK Time for predictions. I think if the seat was not in Victoria & in particular Melbourne the Libs would win, but the Victorian Libs are toxic & useless. The result 52.5 – 47.5 to the ALP. Hope I am wrong as I will be handing out HTV cards for Nathan 2morrow.

@paul im saying 51-49 or less to labor. whereabouts?

@Paul Baker I’m saying too close to call but on your numbers I would say the Liberals will win the primary vote. 52.5% Labor would likely be from Greens preference.

Anyway, Albo and Labor have been saying that the average swing at a by-election is 7% (ironically the swing needed for the Liberals to get 51% of the TPP vote or for Labor to get 63% of the TPP vote). This is absolute nonsense. Dutton says it’s about 3.6%. I don’t have the figures but I’m certain that it’s closer to 3.6% than 7%. But of course that’s an average swing. There have been two polls conducted, both being very close. The first had Labor narrowly ahead while the second had the Liberals narrowly ahead, but both clearly show that the Labor/Greens vote is down while the Liberal vote is up.

@John oh okay.

Since you’re in Dunkley and at the after-party I thought I might see if you’re willing to upload any photos to Wikimedia Commons? Wikipedia currently doesn’t have images for the Labor or Liberal candidates yet.

Anyway, @John and @Paul Baker, please keep us posted with any observations or voter thoughts on the day. I’m interested to see what it’s like on the ground.

@ Nether

Apparantly it’s not enough that the Liberals have to import Trumpist demogoguery from the US, but now it’s onto ChatGPT?

That’s a sad state of affairs.