Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Peta Murphy died on 4 December 2023.
Margin – ALP 6.3%
Geography
South-Eastern Melbourne. Dunkley covers all of the City of Frankston and part of the Shire of Mornington Peninsula. Main suburbs include Frankston, Sandhurst, Skye, Carrum Downs, Langwarrin and Seaford.
History
Dunkley was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has almost always been a marginal electorate, and swung back and forth regularly in the 1980s. The Liberal Party held the seat continuously from 1996 to 2019, if only by slim margins at time.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor’s Bob Chynoweth. Chynoweth had won Flinders at the 1983 election, defeating new MP Peter Reith, who had won a by-election for the seat four months earlier. Chynoweth moved to Dunkley following the redistribution.
He held the seat in 1987 before losing to Liberal candidate Frank Ford in 1990. Chynoweth won the seat back in 1993.
A redistribution before the 1996 election saw Dunkley become a notional Liberal seat, and Chynoweth was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Billson. Billson held Dunkley for twenty years until his retirement in 2016, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Chris Crewther.
The electoral boundaries were redrawn prior to the 2019 election, and the seat became a notional Labor seat. Crewther lost his bid for re-election to Labor candidate Peta Murphy. Murphy was re-elected with a greater margin in 2022, but died of cancer in December 2023.
- Nathan Conroy (Liberal)
- Bronwyn Currie (Animal Justice)
- Chrysten Abraham (Libertarian)
- Reem Yunis (Victorian Socialists)
- Darren Bergwerf (Independent)
- Alex Breskin (Greens)
- Heath McKenzie (Democrats)
- Jodie Belyea (Labor)
Assessment
Dunkley is not a safe seat and could be in play. It seems likely that Labor will retain the seat, both because of their strong position in Victoria and potentially because of sympathy due to the circumstances leading to the by-election, but a Liberal win cannot be ruled out.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peta Murphy | Labor | 38,506 | 40.2 | +1.7 |
| Sharn Coombes | Liberal | 31,108 | 32.5 | -7.4 |
| Liam O’Brien | Greens | 9,898 | 10.3 | +2.0 |
| Adrian Kain Irvine | United Australia | 4,846 | 5.1 | +2.5 |
| Darren Bergwerf | Independent | 3,698 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Scott Middlebrook | One Nation | 2,689 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Damian Willis | Liberal Democrats | 2,398 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Elizabeth Johnston | Animal Justice | 2,013 | 2.1 | -1.0 |
| Kathryn Woods | Federation Party | 566 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 4,750 | 4.7 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peta Murphy | Labor | 53,865 | 56.3 | +3.5 |
| Sharn Coombes | Liberal | 41,857 | 43.7 | -3.5 |
Polling places in Dunkley have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 57.6% in the centre and 60.6% in the north. The Liberal Party polled 52.8% in the south.
About one third of votes were cast as pre-poll votes, with another 22% cast through other methods. Labor won a smaller majority in these vote categories.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.9% in the south to 17.3% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.8 | 57.6 | 21,495 | 22.5 |
| North | 11.0 | 60.6 | 14,789 | 15.4 |
| South | 11.5 | 47.2 | 5,299 | 5.5 |
| Pre-poll | 9.5 | 55.8 | 32,944 | 34.4 |
| Other votes | 9.4 | 54.9 | 21,195 | 22.1 |
Election results in Dunkley at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
@paladin the nts second seat is protected by an act of parliament
John
Yes short of the “1.33” determination rule. Almost as offensive as Tasmania’s 5 seat provision !
1.41 quotas (which is what the Northern Territory has), entitles it to two seats, as it should.
With one seat, that one seat is 41% over quota. With two seats, each seat is 29.5% (1.41 / 2 = 0.705) under quota. It may seem counterintuitive given that 1.41 is closer to 1 than to 2, but the deviation is smaller with two seats, and that is why the Northern Territory is rightly entitled to two seats.
1.33 is the cutoff point because that’s where the deviations are equal (33% above if one seat, 33% below if two seats).
On the other hand, there is no justification for Tasmania having five seats other than reasons that would equally justify Tasmanian secession.
Nicolas
Thank you. Very helpful and appreciated.
I’d personally be delighted if Tasmania seceded. With 2 senators it is unjustifiable that the NT has this arrangement IMV . Territorians are the most overrepresented people in OZ. Possibly the world.So i don’t really agree with you !. I’m sure you’ll survive !
@paladin Nicholas they’re entitled by the constitution
paladin.
They have not junked S3 – there remain very large tax cuts going through, if you had not noticed. If you didn’t think that Labor was going to change the S3 cuts, either before or after the election (with changes announced beforehand) then your political instincts are limited.
it looks as though the focus s shifting from the tax cuts back to the detainee saga. this could be bad for labor
HiGH St
Depends on your POV. My expectations of this govt could not be lower, so there’s nothing wrong with MY political instincts thanks !. S3 was NEVER about cost of living (relief) . It WAS about PRODUCTIVITY. Incentivising our most productive workers ($100000+ PA) to work longer harder, better etc. To hand back SOME of the huge bracket creep (since 2007). It was never about a “tax cut for the rich ” To accept such glib, shallow ridiculous political nonsense is as ignorant and economically illiterate as the treasurer is. AS such it is a very poor policy outcome.
Politically it may have got some mileage, however the govt’s all round incompetence on all else has quickly sucked the oxygen away from it’s (and the PM’s) conceited posturing.
John, I haven’t heard or seen anyone in the community talking about the high court ruling that keeping people locked up for ever as an issue. I know LNP has only asked questions about it in QT this week and all their posts on FB are about it, but the engagement on those posts is well done on their previous posts.
If this is the issue LNP wants to campaign on it seems like a fizzer.
@paladin.
Really? Productivity??
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
High Street, I agree more with Paladin’s view. I end up owing lots of tax, despite having an income under $100k.
I do believe the amount of money collected from existing taxes is too low, so additional taxes on road use similar to a congestion charge for travelling during peak periods would be good to include at the same time as reducing the income tax rates.
I’m in the minority of Australians who will receive less of a tax cut under the government’s changes, but I’m not complaining, and I honestly don’t think many others in my situation are. (Don’t be deceived by the few noisy attention-seekers making clickbait headlines.) Politically, I see the changes will working out in Labor’s favour. They’ve put the opposition in a very difficult position.
I do have sympathy for Paladin’s perspective. The government’s overreliance on income tax for revenue is not sustainable given our aging population. There will need to be meaningful tax reform some time in the not-too-distant future. I remember hearing someone laud Morrison for achieving “tax reform”. God help us if that’s what “tax reform” looks like.
I also think it is indefensible that our taxation system rewards playing the property speculation casino so much more generously than hard honest work. With the CGT discount, a doctor’s pay rise gets taxed at twice the rate as an “investor” flipping property. Maybe Labor could break its promises on the CGT discount and negative gearing and unbreak its promise on Stage 3 by cutting taxes on the upper brackets at the same time. I’m only half-joking.
Good day on the streets of dunkley in seafood. I’m willing to bet it will be closer then the poll suggested
How much?
So it begins…
The Liberals are really not cutting through with their position on Labor’s tax cuts. Everybody seems to think the Liberals are opposed to them receiving a tax cut. I’m not sure what else they could have done here, but this is now hurting them on the ground. Both candidates are campaigning hard – but the Libs may have more to gain here given the 12% hit they’ve taken at the last three elections (sure, partly due to a popular Labor member, but also due to pretty average Liberal candidates). I still think this could be very tight.
@dunkley we had a very good reception today
The Liberal candidate says he wants to help with cost of living, yet while he has been Mayor of Frankston rates have gone up exorbitantly.
Liberal candidate also copping it a bit for falsely claiming experience as a corporate executive, which turned out to be managing a bowls club in the city for a short time. Apparently, he has really struggled to explain this to people when asked about it. Looks like he has been caught out here, but a bit surprised the mainstream media have let him off the hook.
@adam unfortunately rates go up that’s a fact of life. So have interest rates
I think ALP will sneak home in Dunkley. Since Aston the people have fallen out of love with Albo, but not ready for the baseball bats and Dutts isnt cutting thru yet. The tax cuts will buy some temp relief for Albo but the problem is he has fired all his ammo on the economic front and the situation is likely to deteriorate over the next 12 months – recession or high inflation – pick ur poison. I believe Albo will go to the GG before the end of year bcos after October 2024 his chances will gradually diminish.
id wager the current climate is 50/50 here.
@paul i agree that it will probably be a narrow alp victory but anything worse the 52-48 is still a win for the libs. hoever i think the libs might be able to edge labor out here. i think all the right factors are available to help them get over the line
I don’t think the economic situation will get worse, in fact I think it will be significantly better. Inflation down, more tax cuts for people, more cost of living relief.
The only area they are struggling in (and every govt has for the past 3 decades) is housing. But no one actually wants to fix that, because house prices coming down hurts 70% of Australians.
With the ballot draw, the lack of right wing candidates leaking preferences and a big liberal advertising blitz, if the Libs can’t win this by-election now they cannot possibly win this seat at a general election.
@dunkley it will be harder at the general election if they can’t rt an incumbent as it will shed parts of liberal going my Eliza and take territory probably Patterson lakes from issacs at the redistribution
@Dunkley Watch, you are right. But they won’t be able to win this seat now, and it’s not a winnable seat at a Federal election on these boundaries.
@adam the current boundaries are winnable in aby election and once you remove the personal vote and put in other factors. If the
Liberals can win now the new boundaries would be winnable if they had incumbency. But not problem not if they dont
The infighting of the state Liberals has assured a Labor victory here, this is the second by-election where the state Liberal Party civil war has hurt their federal counterparts. It might be time for the federals to intervene as this is going to continuously drag them down and they need to make ground in Victoria and not go backwards.
We’re now 10 days out from the Dunkley by-election.
@spacefish ive been on the ground in dunkley helping and i cant tell you that the state liberals are not even being mentioned. its all about albo and dutton. labor and liberal at a federal level.
Bit of trivial buy it’s been nearly 30 years since the liberals took a seat off Labor at a by election in 95 Canberra by election where Labor suffered a 16%swing against them. But given that was caused by a resignation rather then a death that won’t happen this time. And that a seat hasn’t changed hands due to a death since 1966
@John interesting. That’s also the most recent time the Liberals won a federal seat in the ACT.
I’ve created a countdown for the Dunkley by-election. You can view it here: https://countingdownto.com/?c=5361958
The countdown is until 6:00pm AEDT on 2 March 2024, which is when polling places close.
given that 19000 people have applied for a postal vote we probably wont have a result on election night if its close. the liberals will be favoured so if they can get close on election night they will be in with a shot. if theyre ahead then it will be probably over
I attended the Wednesday debate with ABC’s Ali Moore and it was pretty rough going for the Liberal candidate. First he failed to turn up on time ( it impressing the crowd), then he lost his temper when asked about his links to local developer proposals. He needs to be a bit more mature. If he can’t handle local questioners with respect, he will struggle with the step up to federal parliament.
It’s heating up in dunkley. Only 1 week left
I don’t think the state Liberals infighting will harm the federal Liberals in Dunkley, nor did I think it was a significant factor at the Aston by-election. It certainly detracted them but I wouldn’t put the blame solely on John Pesutto like some Libs did. John Pesutto and the state Liberals have since been emboldened by swings at the Warrandyte and Mulgrave by-elections.
Whilst turning up late and losing temper are bad form, it’s not a deal-breaker. I doubt the average voter even knows about it.
According to Kos Samaras, both parties see this seat as a must-win. LNP sees it as a part of a long-term strategy to win outer suburban seats and as a path to federal victory. Labor obviously aims to maintain its grip outer suburban and/more low-socioeconomic areas.
Attorney General Mark Dreyfuss was there today at the frankston boothbut didn’t do much other then talk to Jodie belyea. She also didn’t seem to do much as there wasn’t much interest in her from the swing voters. She quickly up and left to the carrum booth. Nathan conroy seems to able to connect with the swing voters and this could be thr deciding factor
A Greens volunteer I spoke to yesterday said those coming through the Frankston booth yesterday were going Labor’s way and strongly (with the Liberal candidate again described as aggressive). The question emerging now is whether a return to Council as Mayor has now become untenable if the Liberal Candidate loses (despite him having every legal right to return). On 3 March, Frankston Council has to work with the Allan and Albanese Governments again. If the mayor loses, Council will surely not allow him to return given his comments about state and federal Labor governments during this campaign. I’m told that Councillors don’t think that can work.
Sky news trying to say anger is felt on the ground and labor will be sent a message. On insiders yesterday a reporter was saying how low energy the lnp launch was and how they aren’t hopeful.
I still think 52-48.
@tom it was pretty even Saturday as dar as rustedon. Today I think it’s going the libs way. Jim saying 51-49 don’t ask which way
Does anyone actually believe any of this ‘on the ground, ‘word at the booths’ rubbish? Particularly for early voting, where you are clearly going to get the more engaged, rather than the swinging voter who decides elections?
New poll 51-49 to the libs
@John – most sensible people are raising their eyebrows at the quality of that poll, given the very small sample size. Basically proves nothing more than that it’s 55/45, one way or the other.
Which poll is that?
I think the result will be close to 50/50
Note that PM by talking about the average by election swing, is preparing for the worst.Is that because he knows something we don’t?
I expect the swing against Labor to be worst than that what statewide and national polls say as people can give a kick to the government and not change the government. The Liberals ad emphasis this as saying “it wont change the government but you can send Labor a message”. I think Labor will be happy even they hold the seat by 0.5% in these circumstances. If Labor does loose the seat they may pick it up again at the general election. I think Ryan by-election in 2001 is an example of this.
the yougov poll is certainly more believeable then the guardian one. which suggested no movement in the labor primary vote pretty much meaning that labor has lost no vote from peta murphys personal vote and also the ougov poll show a huge increase in support for the independant Darren Bergwerf