Dunkley by-election, 2024

I think Albanese will be fine if they narrowly hold on even if its by a 0.1% margin, Labor can argue that by-elections have swings against the govt. Problems would only occur if the swing is large enough for the Libs to win. In contrast, it will be disastrous for Dutton if the Libs can’t even achieve a 3.5% swing to achieve their 2019 result in Dunkley.

@dan no way a 6.3% swing to the opposition would be the same as losing. a 3.5% swing would be a draw anything either way would be a win for one side

I don’t think the by-election will break any leader’s leadership. Labor got a 6% swing in Aston in 2023 and flipped the seat and yet Peter Dutton has since remained. He doesn’t have arch-rivals like Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull did. The swing in Dunkley could just ring alarm bells at most. The Voice referendum has emboldened Dutton but the post-referendum high is all but gone.

I think Albanese’s revised tax cuts were in response to the ongoing cost of living crisis and political pressures and sluggish poll numbers nationwide, rather than an poll specific to Dunkley. It was the Libs who accused Labor of revising the tax cuts for the sake of the by-election.

Regarding redistributions, if Mount Eliza gets redistributed from Dunkley to Flinders, then yes,the margins of Dunkley and Flinders will go up and make them both safer for Labor and Liberals respectively. This is because Mount Eliza is strongly Liberal. It’s worth noting that Mount Eliza is a strong teal-ish area. There are teal-ish areas in Flinders such as Mornington and Mount Martha. This would make Flinders more susceptible to a teal challenger. It has been in teal sights for two elections in a row.

Votante
I disagree.
Albanese’s job depends on a Dunkley win, but NOT Dutton’s
Aston was and is irrelevant because no one wanted Dutton’s job. (clearly you can you dig it !!)
What are you talking about “the post-referendum high is all but gone” ? There was no such thing. I campaigned for 2 weeks pre poll in N Sydney. I can state emphatically that there was no such euphoric “high”. That simply never happened. EXHAUSTED RELIEF -YES . “high” don’t be ridiculous. Frankly to contend such a thing is ignorant, offensive, and insulting.
Albanese’s “revised” tax cuts were because he is driven by fear and avarice and acted (hastily, and stupidly !) in response to internal polling, and his own personal neurosis, and weakness !
His overarching conceit prevented him from seeing how this would fatally destroy his govts credibility and even believability ! Maybe you have as much trouble with accepting this reality as the pathetically clueless Albanese does ??
i SURE AS HELL DO NOT
Who accused who of what could not be less relevant
BTW I normally enjoy your views and find them entirely thought provoking and respectable.Just not this time.

When Peta Murphy passed i would have rated the Liberals chances at 20% – 1 in 5
since then things have “evolved”
I wonder if anyone would argue that Peta’s strong personal vote could be quantified as(less than) 3-4 %?
SAY 3.5%?
Then the polls were moving a little up, then down. However the trend has been down say another 2% nett ?
Now this weeks circus with clown Albanese’s performance with Stage 3 Say another 1 % ?
So that would add up to 6.5% the Dunkley margin which seems to correlate with internal polling indicating that Dunkley is line ball

Paladin, you seem to find a lot of people’s opinions to be offensive and insulting. Perhaps let’s just keep to the topic of the by-election and its political impact instead of cramming in as many insults at the PM as possible in one comment.

This couldbe a chance for libs to snag this seat otherwise ithinkthe redistribution will help Labor hold in 2025

John
Could be..! However on one hand you do have the Victorian Liberal Party who seem consumed with fighting each other…!
On the the other is Nathan Conroy who is quite unknown. However he could have the advantage of having a local campaign and or a national one. A Two pronged campaign. That is a big advantage, but will he be able to capitalise on it ?
Perhaps also this advantage might not be equally shared with the Labor candidate ?

There’s been a lot of comment on the imminent re-distribution re Dunkley. Flinders is only under quota by a few thousand so why would it need around 10,000 voters from Mt Eliza/ Dunkley ? Why not just get 4000 or more from Holt to the east ? Before the last re -distribution IIRC Flinders went all the way round Western port areas now mostly in Holt.

@ Paladin
I actually prefer the coastal areas in Holt going into Flinders and that is what i proposed in my submission.

@paladin as a frankson based seat and him being the frankston mayor id say his chances of recognition are high enough. its communities of interest mount eliza is part of the mornington lga so they will come from there.

On the actual by election, I think it is fantasy to think Albos job is on the line if Labor loses – for a number of reasons.

1. Surely, surely the major parties have realised the folly in perpetual leader changes. Only really NSW Libs got away with it, and almost all those changes were forced not made for political reasons.
2. As Kevin Bonham puts it, the margin is on line for opposition swing in a by election, and we are at a nadir for Labor this term. Add in what seems a pretty sizeable personal vote and a Government loss is almost expected and nothing to be too concerned about.

OTOH, if the Libs not just lose but barely make a dent in the margin then surely Dutton’s position must be under a little bit of a threat, even if the Libs changing leader is unlikely.

Nimalan
Sorry i missed that. What is your view on the effect of the transfer re Holt-Flinders on Dunkley? Could Dunkley be drawn further south in Flinders ?
John
We’ll see i guess
MLV
Always good to receive a dramatically opposing view. IMV Albanese’s job has been on the line since the referendum. Most Yes voters seem spectacularly incurious about the effect of the referendum on NO voters. In a seat like Dunkley there will be an impact. It is difficult to say whether the effect of the voice began, created or just reinforced a view of Albanese that he is adversarial, and divisive or that it was illustrated/illuminated by the referendum. His assertions of inclusion, and unity never had substance, particularly in reference to “fighting Tories” . Similarly such obvious contradictions have only undermined his position
Yes Labor are deeply scarred by the RGR experience, however there is already factional positioning happening as evidenced by the naming of contenders Burke Plibersek, and Chalmers . If it was from the coalition it would be Shorten, or Marles.

Thing about using Historical reference is that it’s easy to be selective.
Albanese got the job in the first place being seen as a” stop gap or temporary leader” until Tanya was ready
and through “seniority” (which BTW is almost always historically disastrous) It was expected that labor would lose in the Eden -Monaro by-election, and they should have lost conclusively. In which case there were plans to move on (with Tanya). This event illustrates how Albanese got his chance through pretty lukewarm support and also how he is perceived internally. His colleagues know they must submit virtually all proposals in writing in order to be received positively, such are his sensitivities (to the perception of criticism). This impediment serves to constantly remind colleagues of his frailties, and limitations.

We don’t know how committed Dutton will be to campaigning in Dunkley, let alone how that will play out. I doubt very much whether the ALP will be as sanguine as you seem ,in the event of a Dunkley loss !!

@paladin – I agree with Wilson, you seem to like to sprout a lot of strong opinions, with not much to back them up.

FWIW I have been predicting for 18 months that the start of 2024 would be when the Government announced changes to S3 – they couldn’t have the speculation drag on until the May budget. Slow news cycle and a fresh narrative for the year, etc, etc. The pressure on people from inflation just made it more urgent to do now and to land at the position they did. There’s a scenario in that the by-election has not affected the timing at all.
Labor is polling somewhere b/w 50-50 and 52-48. I would think Labor learnt last time what happens when you change a leader, especially when you are in front in the polls. It’s fortuitous timing that Nemesis is playing at the moment, if anyone needed a reminder.
Seats like Dunkley might be under pressure at the by-election and at next General election – but the polls at the moment are saying that there are swings elsewhere to balance out.

And just because Peter Dutton said the Referendum was divisive, doesn’t mean it was.
PS – you mis-interpreted Votante’s comment about a post referendum high, entirely

@ Paladin,
If the coastal areas of Holt are transferred to Flinders (these areas are quite Liberal as they are rural and not ethnically diverse unlike the rest of Holt), i think Flinders will see a slight increase in the Liberal Margin. I personallt think Dunkley will move north and take Paterson Lakes (Liberal suburb), Carrum/Bonbeach marginal Labor) so maybe not much change to it is margin if that happens. If Dunkley moves South (which i dont think it needs to otherwise Flinders may have to take suburban areas in Holt as well), then it would improve for the Libs but Mornington itself is not as strong for Libs as Mount Eliza and less affluent as well.

I voted Yes, and yet even I feel angry with the government over the referendum. They were arrogant and complacent to think it would easily pass, and in doing so they have left indigenous Australians feeling hurt and set back progress on indigenous affairs by a generation. The argument on the purported necessity of enshrining it in the constitution was absurd. They could have just legislated it. It was one of the worst political decisions of our time.

I suspect Greens will run, but no noise whatsoever about a candidate.

Getting pretty tired of the Greens’ approach to by-elections. They should either run properly or not at all. I suspect their attempts at the former led to diminishing returns – little media play on Green issues, usually a primary vote swing against them (due to other minor parties), or a small positive swing but lackluster performance when Labor aren’t running, and it pulls volunteers away from long term campaigns in winnable seats.

But with council elections this year the Greens could at least go for some early name recognition, and it could coincide with hard ball on the stage 3 tax cuts to get some media play. It could also be used for training.

Do Greens running really help the seat stay in the red column? Preference flows are pretty good and it helps to have extra volunteers handing out with a different message to the one Labor is running, but there aren’t that many strong HTV followers in the Green vote so it’s likely they would have voted Labor anyway. Still, the last time Greens stood aside explicitly to give Labor a clean run (Doboy Ward 2020) it didn’t work, and that’s with OPV.

If Labor benefit from Greens running, then they should threaten (behind the scenes) not to as part of bill negotiations.

@ John
The Greens running probably does help Labor especially in more affluent parts like Mount Eliza. The Greens also have a disciplined flow of preferences, In Higgins i dont think Labor could have won without Greens. In a seat like this Greens dont aim to win especially in a by-election but may want to build their brand especially to win a seat in the South East Metro region in 2026. I actually wonder if Family First will run they ran in every Victorian lower house seat in November 2022 and in the 3 state by-elections since, if they run it will be first time they ran since 2016 in a federal seat. Dunkley is not a good seat for them as it is very irreligious but they will do well in neighbouring Holt if they ran

I think this seat will be line ball and could go either way. Although 6.3% seems a pretty steep mountain the govt is in a form slump and there is perhaps an opportunity for the libs to snag the seat. Though they won’t win by much if they do the margin is just within reach for an outside win. Labor will be sandbagging ere they are worries they will lose in an upset. As we saw in Aston nothing is certain.

@John, interesting points about the Greens. The Dunstan by-election in SA seems to be an exception to the rule then, as the impression I get is that the Greens are taking that by-election seriously. I think the Greens, and most parties for that matter, are happy/willing to run in by-elections because it increases the chances that their voters will remain loyal. The logic is that if you give your normal voters the opportunity to vote for someone else (because you’re not on the ballot), they’ll start getting more comfortable voting for someone else, and will be harder to count on at the next general election.

@gpps Il concede Dunstan is lost to Labor. Unless PM shoots someone dead in central Adelaide tomorrow in front of 100 witnesses

Have the Greens ever not run in a by-election?

I mentioned earlier that there is a possibility Dunkley will flip but Labor will gain as the general election, especially if the redistribution works in their favour.

@Paladin, “Albanese’s job depends on a Dunkley win, but NOT Dutton’s”.
Do you mean long term or short term? I don’t think Albanese’s job is on the line at stake at this by-election, even if Labor loses. As Mostly Labor Voter mentioned, Labor has hit the nadir it seems. Add to that, on average there’s a swing to the opposition at by-elections.

There’s consensus that a bad by-election result can precipitate a leader’s resignation or a leadership spill. Turnbull lost his job just a month after by-elections where Labor increased their margins in Labor seats. The differences between 2018 and 2024 are that the rules have changed so that it’s harder to call a leadership spill especially when the PM has won an election and Labor is currently slightly ahead on the polls whereas the LNP weren’t in 2018.

You mentioned the Eden-Monaro by-election. I think Scott Morrison and LNP, as were the Premiers, were riding on a high in the polls back then due to the pandemic. Of course, it was very hard for Albanese to catch up.

A loss in dunkley would cause some internal rumblings for labor

The Greens did not contest Groom 2020 but that was the first one they had not contested since Warringah 1994.

@ John

I am not sur ethe rumblings would be that heavy as Labor as done the nearly impossible and won an opposition seat while in government.

If Dunkley was a safe Labor seat and they lost it, there would be rumblings, but it is a marginal seat that in the last 15 to 20 years has been held more by the Liberals than Labor.

I expect a big swing on primaries against labor with a moderate 3 – 5 % swing against in the 2pp.

If the RBA starts lowering rates before the by-election then the ALP will have no problems, but I am sure they will wait until after the next couple of CPI releases

@captain. yea there were several factors at play though in Aston. a government on a honeymoon. a dissafected cchinee population receiving getting influneced by chinese state media tellin them to vote labor due to morrisons hirt front over origin of covid, loss of the sitting members personal vote, and a parachuted liberal candidate all caused that. im willing to wager aston will be regained at the next election. it is by defination a safe seat as it is over the 6% margin. in regard to 2pp im thinking about the same 4-5% but that puts it within reach of an upset. there wont be a rate reduction before the by election there is only going to be one meeting before the by election on 6th feb. the data released today sugget they will start lowering rates in june as suggeted by analysts. there wont be a reduction on tuesday. if it were to increase on tuesday the govt is probably toast

Votante
Re Albanese/ Dutton : Who wants Dutton’s job ? No one ? . Albanese ? The 5 + contenders named above. IDK how long until that changes.
I responded to MLV above . I disagree that Labor “has reached a nadir” What would you see as improving, or retarding their fortunes or the poll trends ? It is difficult to think of a more anticipated poll than this weeks news poll . On trend labor appear to be moving toward a much lower “nadir” indeed.

Re By elections Dunkley has some notable distinctions
1/ it’s perceived as a “safe ish” labor seat like so many others Ie Blair,Macquarie, mcEwen, and others. So the result may have wider ,and deeper implications.
2/ If Labor were to lose to a Lord Mayor candidate they won’t get it back.
3/ Any (by-election) loss is a concrete illustration of the electorate’s frustrations and an examination rather than a test or challenge.
4/ it’s a perfect forum for the govt to be exposed, and make even more mistakes, & misjudgements.

There is much said about “the rules”. The reality is those “rules” can be changed with one vote in caucus . Just as in British Law it was, or is illegal to urinate in public, except against the wheel of a cart ! Seeing as there are few carts around it is now difficult to test this law ! I suspect it was changed without resistance when appropriate !

Mentioned E-M because the result legitimised Albanese’s PM ship. IMPROBABLY as it were. The main factors were
1/ Barilaro undermining the Coalition campaign
2/ The SFF preferencing Labor
3/ Kristy McBAIN campaigning strongly
4/ HER POWER BASE AS a Mayor
5/ Albanese being somewhat present, and competent.Although his campaigning competence remains highly suspect.
I seriously doubt Scomo , Covid, or poll ascendency had much to do with the outcome

@paladin agreedifthelj s can snag the seat they should be able to hold it.

@Paladin Macquarie and McEwen really depend on redistribution. If Macquarie loses the Blue Mountains and is mostly or entirely based in the Hawkesbury then it becomes a notional Liberal seat, while if McEwen loses some outer Melbourne booths it becomes notionally Liberal. But if Macquarie loses most of the Hawkesbury (including around Pitt Town and Windsor) and if McEwen loses some rural booths then they become safer for Labor. Same with Paterson: it will likely be notionally Liberal because it would have to lose Maitland and Kurri Kurri while keeping Port Stephens and gaining some rural booths from Lyne and maybe Hexham from Newcastle. Blair is only Labor-held because it includes parts of Ipswich; towns like Esk are very friendly for the LNP. They’re examples of seats that are quite complex.

Remember that the govt achieved a 6.4% swing in the aston by election so the 6.3% isn’t entirely unachievable

Nether Portal
Thanks for your comment
Agreed mostly. I was just casting round for seats most similar in the sense of contest, so it’s an imperfect comparison at best. I’m intrigued at your view of Maquarie, as i can’t see any outcome good for Labor !.I figure it’s about 12000 voters under quota and can’t see where many la labor voters might come from.OTOH if any part of the upper Blue Mountains go into Calare game over.
Have no idea about McEwen. Can’t see how with an outflow of about 35000 mostly labor voters Paterson doesn’t go liberal so i was really talking PRE -REDISTRIBUTION.

Wilson
Your quite right there ARE a lot of offensive opinions. However i’m actually very hard to insult. Except when someone wildly and strongly contradicts my lived experience
AS for your advice re Albanese, perhaps that is an oxymoron, contradiction in terms !? As it is simply impossible to EVER insult the poor pitiful fool enough, in the second place !!. Albanese is by any, and every measurement the worst PM in Australia’s history. That is the only notable achievement attributable to him
Seeing as i only have the ultimate contempt of pity for this man, i always FEEL like i’m going to easy on the useless idiot.
You will note i refuse to name him as PM as he is and always has been completely unworthy of the highest office. And yes the failure of his PM ship is a critical factor in this by election. The evidence of this fact lies in the question “IF SOMEONE ELSE WAS LEADING LABOR WOULD THE BY ELECTION BE A CONTEST ?”
Just remember you brought (the subject)it up.

@paladin i think paterson is a done deal for the libs. mcewen and macquaire are likely targets as the redistributions wil most likely favour them there

High St
G’day neighbour !
You’re very welcome to point out any unfounded views on my part, or unacknowledged as mere opinion
Happy to to pledge to redouble my efforts to provide more facts and evidence.

Perhaps the evidence of an impetus to change S3 is irresistible ? So i agree. Perhaps also momentum came with the failure of the referendum ? Who knows when plans for the alteration of S3 began ?. Is there any doubt that the impending by election commenced or accelerated them ? Isn’t that extremely likely ? So I’m doubtful that “There’s a scenario in that the by-election has not affected the timing at all.”

The urgency you refer to is not c of living, it’s the govt need to change the debate. In reality S3 will have minimal effect on C of L ESPECIALLY when measured against the abolition of the LMI Rebate. Labor better hope the libs fail to gain traction with that (comparison)
Instinctively it looks to me that the polls have shifted permanently to 50-50 or more against Labor on a trend
so the next few polls will be fascinating. If so thats the end of Labor being ahead .
“Nemesis” mmmm !
The situations are different in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2018 , and now. Its a big subject. However it could be argued that some of the political assassinations forestalled even more calamitous results !? They were certainly entertaining !!

“but the polls at the moment are saying that there are swings elsewhere to balance out.” Where would these polls be ?
I’ll respond to your contentions about Dutton and the referendum later

Agree this seat should be a linebacker contest unless one trips up. 4 weeks left till polling day

Word on the street in dunkley is liberals up by 4 points

The partisan cheerleading is really getting out of hand. Can we stick to the facts in the discussion? Nor is “Word on the street” worthy of being mentioned as a source. Please point to something halfway credible (hopefully better than an opinion column from the Oz).

Nicolas
I do empathise, with your view. It’s a measure of the fundamental decency, and generosity of australians that so much hope and goodwill was invested in the voice. Surely much effort (and expense) for very little result ? Your last sentence really is the salient point, about the referendum being a political decision. Although it was (constantly) portrayed very differently.
One positive that can be drawn from the Voice is that several Indigenous No campaigners remarked that they were surprised at how much other australians cared about the indigenous (cause). Wouldn’t it be ironic if the divisiveness of the voice were offset partially by something so unifying ?
Why can’t we just focus on solutions, and outcomes ? “re closing the Gap” What is the big problem with having a full audit of all the agencies , or a royal commission into aboriginal child abuse ?

This seat just doesn’t seem to swing very much, so for the Liberals to get the 6.3% swing they’ll need seems unlikely to me. The last time there was a swing of at least 6% here was in 1990 during the Victorian economic meltdown (6.8% swing to Liberal). Even in 2007 when Labor got big swings in outer metropolitan seats, this seat only swung 5.3% to the ALP (exactly in line with the Vic state swing). Aston is different at it was one of the few areas of Melbourne that does big 6-10% swings, but Dunkley has no history of this.

Finally, I think it’s clear that this part of Melbourne has been trending Labor – remember Labor even managed to get a swing to them in 2019 despite most of the outer suburban seats swinging against Labor and despite Labor’s tax policies. Note also that Labor margins in state seats like Frankston, Carrum have become safe for Labor. I would predict a Labor retain with a max 3% margin (ie lean ALP).

@gpps this a by election though given the fate of the govt is not in the balance people ,as see fit to send the govt a ,essayed. If all the right factors bend the liberals way as they did for Labor in aston a
Iberal win cannot be ruled out

Comparing this to state results, Frankston and Carrum are safe Labor seats, and last year Hastings (which Langwarrin is in) had a swing towards Labor, against the odds. Mornington (which Mt Eliza is in) was almost won by a Teal. I think the Liberal brand is trashed here, and Dutton is poison. The tax changes will benefit an even greater % of this electorate than nationally, and they will be very popular.

@by last year I assume you mean 2022. Federal Labor has had a few bad things wrong. Col voice and the govt is off its honeymoon. Id wager a close election. <1% either way

@adam so you think people wil, vote Labor foran $15/week when the govt 5oook$1500 off them last and is raising gruel and alcohol taxes and considering banning salmon?

John.
I agree with you that Dunkley is nearly line ball. However Newspoll is stuck at 52- 48 though its shifted a little in composition . There simply isn’t enough movement atm for anything other than a narrow retain for Labor. Clearly there isn’t enough pain yet for voters to be paying attention to the all round indefensible actions and performance of the govt.
Tomorrow i’ll be at the anti RENEWABLES rally in Canberra. Hardly anyone understands the biggest, best , and most costly scam/con job, in history. So there doesn’t seem much willingness to wake up and see where we are being taken, and we sure are being taken !!
There’s no doubt of the veracity of your argument to Adam re $1500 vs $15 pw. Nor the outright betrayal wrt to compensating “bracket creep” however again no one seems to be waking up.

@paladin thats for “if a federal election were held today” choice. people tend to want to punih and send a message t a particular party more often the govt when the fate of the govt isnt in the balance. also thats within the margin of error and isnt a seat by seat poll. they should be conducting a seat by seay poll in dunkley and les so in cook. and based on the info i got sat id say the libs are within a chance

They should do an opinion poll for Dunkley specifically.

@np last sat I heard libs up 4 points so 52-48 I assume? Il follow up this weekend

@John where did u find this

The Guardian has a uComms poll that is 52-48 from 626 residents. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/09/dunkley-byelection-poll-stage-three-tax-cut-changes-cost-of-living-attack-ads

Note: Labor are ahead 52-48 in that poll, the opposite of what the other John was suggesting

Also to update on an earlier comment, the Greens have preselected Alex Breskin, their south east Metro candidate from 2022. A relatively strong candidate – Greens treated SE Metro a winnable seat and he was quite an active campaigner then. But having left it this late I’m not expecting too much for Greens at this by election.