Dunkley by-election, 2024

@Nimalan,

Why do you believe the Teal vote is tactical? Everything I have seen suggests the Teal vote has an old fashioned class based appeal. I think a lot of the ALP/Green vote that switched to the Teals was people voting against the Liberals, now they are voting for Teals, so I don’t think the vote is tactical in any way shape or form.

@ MLV
Apologies i did not mean to suggest the Teal vote was purely tactical but a lot of it is. For example, in Goldstein the Labor PV crashed a lot in the middle class suburbs along the Frankston line which is more Labor Friendly (Glen Huntly, Ormond, Bentleigh, Cheltenham etc). Labor voters in these areas knew there was no chance Labor could win Goldstein so they switched to Teal to oust Libs. However, in the State electorate of Caulfield which was seen to be competitive, The Labor PV held up much better in the overlapping areas as Labor did not run dead so Labor only lost some centrist voters to the Teal and the Greens actually increased their primary even with a Teal. If a Teal ran in Hotham for example, i dont believe the Teal would have polled as well in East Bentleigh eventhough it is demographically identical to Bentleigh in Goldstein. It is the same in Fowler, where a lot of Dai Le vote was also Liberal voters tactically voting to oust Labor for example in Abbotsbury a liberal voting part of the electorate the Lib PV Crashed 35% while Labor only decreased 5.9% in the same booth. In safe seats where a major party can win from another major party then a minor party or independent is the best bet to defeat the incumbent major party. In a more marginal seat like Higgins the ALP/Green vote would have held up much better though i agree the ALP/Greens would have still lost some voters to the Teal.

It will depend where the move the move the boundary though and what happens at the by ele tion

Nimalan is right but it’s possible those areas genuinely prefer teals to Labor/Greens and have not yet had a political movement that suits them (socially and environmentally progressive but pro business and easy on class politics). There’s enough low hanging policy fruit that the Greens can pursue economic reforms towards social democracy without alienating the doctors wives but I don’t see that holding forever.

But yes the teals definitely campaigned around a tactical vote and didn’t seem to make the case successfully anywhere to vote for them in seats where Labor are competitive. Jo Dyer and Claire Ferres Miles barely got off the ground. I think the teal campaign in ALP held Hawthorn did more harm than good to John Kennedy’s reelection hopes.

I agree with Nimalan.

The teal vote is absolutely genuine and a preference over Labor, Liberal & Greens in some areas for sure. In particular suburbs like Camberwell, Brighton, Kew and Sandringham, where voters may feel disillusioned by the direction of the Liberal Party but voting Labor or Greens is a step too far.

However, there aren’t very many (if any) seats where the genuine teal vote alone would result in a victory.

So what we saw in seats such as Kooyong & Goldstein, where “teal” areas do dominate the seat moreso than elsewhere AND both Labor & Greens are seen as uncompetitive, was that the more middle class areas which are more Labor-friendly such as Bentleigh, Highett and Caulfield South tactically switched their vote from Labor to the “teal” candidate as they were seen as the most likely way to unseat the Liberal MP.

So we saw a crash in the Labor vote in those areas at the federal level, but I don’t necessarily think that was a genuine preference for the teal over Labor, as much as it was tactical.

As Nimalan says, this is actually supported well by the overlapping state results in which Labor were actually more competitive due to tiny margins. This includes the seats of Caulfield, Brighton and Sandringham.

In all of these 3 seats, which were notionally held on <1% LIB v ALP margins going into the November election, the Labor vote held up and they finished comfortably ahead of the teal candidate. This is because Labor voters didn't feel like voting teal was the realistic way to defeat the Liberals.

So while I think some areas definitely have a genuine teal vote that is dominant, to win the seat generally also relies on Labor/Greens voters also tactically changing their vote to get the teal into second place.

Its the same in the country when the labor vote crashes for a strong independent, eg Vic state seat of Mildura in the past. This really is nothing new, just in the city rather than in the country

@captain thats because the teal in mildura was a failed labor candidate from the 2014 election. here in benambra one of the teals in 2018 was a failed federal greens candidate and id wager the other was a labor or greens voter. they cant get elected under those party banners so they claim to be indiependat. same with all the teals. wilkie down in tasmania is a failed greens candidate

John, I was thinking more of Mildura of 1996, 1999, 2002, 2006, after election of Russell Savage, the ALP vote dropped to 5% -6% and rebounded after he was defeated

@curiously when savage lost 18% of his primary labor also lost 3% in 2006. the same with last year despite cupper only gaining 3% of the primary vote labor lost 11%?

Regarding teals, Flinders looks like a better bet though neither are easy to gain. Flinders has a large, older, rusted-odd Liberal base especially in the south-west and inland to the east. Dunkley is not an ideal teal target as it’s mainly outer suburban, mortgage belt and will likely shift north at the redistribution.

Kate Lardner did well at the state election because Mt Eliza and Mornington/Mt Martha are all quite teal, small l-liberal areas put in the same electorate.

You won’t see Lardner or any other Teal stand in this seat.

You might see another big name though…

@John that’s because country people don’t like Labor or the Greens. I fully understand what you’re saying, having grown up in near Port Macquarie and still having family there (Port is a very Coalition-voting area; although the Yes vote for gay marriage was quite high the No vote for the Voice was high too and the Coalition wins every booth here). Well, technically I actually grew up in a rural town near Port Macquarie, in the federal seat of Lyne and the state seat of Port Macquarie (I grew up in the Camden Haven region), but you get the idea.

The independent who ran in Cowper (Caz Heise) was indeed a teal but she was from Coffs Harbour and the booths she won were all in Coffs and the nearby town of Bellingen. The MP for Cowper at the moment is Pat Conaghan, who is from Port Macquarie, and won all the booths in the rural towns as well as Port Macquarie booths.

In Lyne, the Nationals won every booth. The reason the Purfleet booth (Purfleet is a suburb of Taree) was marginal however is likely because it’s a suburb with a large Indigenous population (it’s also somewhere we consider a no-go zone as there’s lots of crime there). People here describe it as being an “Aboriginal mission” (people here, especially people over 35, often refer to Indigenous communities here as “missions”, even though Purfleet didn’t have any missionaries and was founded as a housing commission suburb for Aboriginal people). Now Indigenous people do often vote Coalition here, but Purfleet is comparable to a community like Hermannsburg, but with less Aboriginal language/culture, more crime and alcohol and a subtropical climate. I’m not being racist here (I’ve got mates who are Indigenous): I’m just making an observation.

anyone got any insights on a date?

@John early 2024 is all we know so far. Is there any date it has to be by?

Probably some time after the Brisbane City Council election. Maybe March or April 2024?

Easter sat is march 30th and then school holidays start April 13th and it would be a brave govt to hold it on the 6th between those 2 events.. so I’m saying it will be march 23rd. Or earlier. We will most likely get a date when parliament returns on Feb 6th

What would change if the Liberals did not stand a candidate?

It has been reported that Jodie Belyea will be the endorsed ALP candidate.

@paladin the liberals would be crazy not to. this is by no means a safe seat and swing to them would bolster there chances in 2025

Today’s inflation rate is pleasing and fell to the lowest level since Jan 2022 (Before Ukraine War started). This will boost the chance for Labor to retain the seat at the by-election.

John
Considering that the Victorian Liberal Party are so useless that they virtually couldn’t find their way home from a Friday night piss up at the local. Or perhaps even couldn’t get there in first place …..!
How about letting Advance Australia run the BY election campaign ? They went ok in the referendum , and that was a much more formidable task.
How’s that for a creative proposal ?

@nomalan I think will retain it as a 6.3% swing in Vic is gonna be a lil hard

A 6.3% swing will be difficult. I expect the Libs to do much better than they did in Aston but Dutton doesn’t exactly appeal to Victorian voters. The Libs would consider a 3% swing a victory even though this seat used to be Lib held until 2019 and the average by-election swing against the govt is 3%.

Whilst i agree that 6.3% will be difficult i also agree with Dan M assessment that Libs will do better than in Aston. I am interested in more economic data such as Quarterly inflation & December inflation figures before making a prediction.

Why wonder why VIC, TAS (and SA Narrowly) had a Labor TPP swing in 2010 but NSW, QLD, and WA had an LNP TPP Swing? It is due to Abbott’s appeal to mining for WA and QLD and Economic Liberalism for NSW but at the expense of SE Australia. Conversely, Gillard was Victorian which may have played with some of the swing but then I don’t know about the Tasmanian (and the smaller SA) ALP swing.

@ Marh
I agree in WA it was the mining Tax that hurt Labor and cost them the seat of Hasluck in 2010. In NSW and QLD, i would actually say it was the unpopular Labor governments that hurt Federal Labor and the LNP ran a proxy state election that year. This was not the case in SA, TAS and Vic which is why Labor got a swing to them in each of those states. In Hindsight, Labor could have won 3 seats (Aston, Dunkley and Boothby) to offset the losses in WA, QLD and NSW. I dont know why Labor lost Soloman in 2010 though i would have expected a sophomore surge there.

The Liberals can field a candidate but the swing may be unpredictable and even misleading. Unlike Aston and Fadden, the Liberals had something worth fighting for and they even campaigned as if it was one of their own marginal seats, following the shock loss in Aston. Albanese’s electoral honeymoon lasted until mid-2022 and there’s been growing unpopularity. The Aston by-election was an outlier since the Liberals had a dud parachuted candidate, there was election fatigue and quite a strong Labor campaigner who had run before.

6% is a quite a buffer but Liberals may want to use this by-election to test the waters in greater Melbourne. On average, there’s a swing to the opposition at by-elections. Albanese’s electoral honeymoon lasted until mid-2022 and there’s been growing unpopularity.

@Marh, Nimalan, other than the mining tax and unpopular state Labor governments, there are other reasons I can think of. In 2010, Julia Gillard had a homefield advantage in Victoria and to a lesser extent, SA. There was a massive swing in Lalor. It’s interesting how Labor got a swing in Victoria but a few months later state Labor lost government. In QLD, Labor’s fortunes of 2007 were reversed as local boy, Kevin Rudd got knifed and the swing voters who supported Kevin from Queensland had voted for other parties.

Nimalen, Unpopular territory gov in 2010, they lost in 2012

I say other factors besides the State Government, Gillard Hometown factor and mining were:
– Unionised workers were initially skeptical for Tony Abbott since he played some role in introducing Workchoices which wouldn’t go well for Vic, Tas and SA.
– Tony Abbott focused too much on his energy for the Northern States

I’m not convinced these inflation figures will be enough for Albanese and Labor to claim credit. Too soon plus on the break down on of the inflation figures, you’ll see housing, energy, food and insurance costs are still rising above the inflation trend. Opposition will likely highlight this.

Voters will notice these essentials are still becoming more costly, because they pay these bills very regularly. In effect they won’t buy party rhetoric or media headlines on inflation or cost of living getting better. Until there’s any change in essentials or interest rates come down – Albo won’t recover in approval ratings.

@stew agree by the time the by election happens it would not have flowed through

The thing to remember re inflation coming down is it just means prices are going up (slightly) more slowly. That isn’t exactly a win, at least on the short term, for Labor. And if the driver is an overall softening of the Labour market, e.g. more unemployment, it might not be seen as a win. I tend to think the inflation rate is baked in re polls for a while anyway.

Voters read their utility bills, grocery bills and mortgage/rent payments.

Economists and central bankers read CPI figures

I do agree that it is not going to easily translate into short term political dividends for Labor. However, it does tell an economic narrative in a debate that they are on the right trajectory. The job for the government is to bring inflation under control without causing a recession it is narrow path but that will determine the fate of the government whether they succeed or not.

@ Votante, Marh and Daniel T
Good points agree with your analysis

I agree with Namalan in that while it may not being felt in prices, people will see inflation going from 8.4% to likely a number starting with a 3 within a year. Interest rates have been priced in to happen towards the end of the year. People know the pain is coming to an end and is on the right way back.

The recent economic news won’t favour Labor in the short-term i.e. in Dunkley. Voters won’t get too excited about forecasts. They gave Labor the benefit of the doubt for the first year or so but things soured from mid-2023. Economic issues, especially inflation and interest rates, are a thorn in the side for Labor.

Interest rates and inflation could start falling by the end of 2024. Add to that, stage 3 tax cuts (which has bipartisan support) will kick in mid-2024. These could form part of Labor’s imrpoved economic narrative. Because of these reasons as well as redistributions in three states, there won’t be an early election in 2024.

New Roy Morgan poll 51-49 to lnp

51-49 TPP is irrelevant, Labor would form minority under that unless the coalition somehow managed to take down a few “Teal” Independents. Labor would probably be around 69-70 seats and the coalition around 63-64 under that poll, So Labor minority

@daniel t that works out fine for a Labor minority with teals will only send those seats back to the libs in 2028 so they can live with I think and tbh I reckon that’s the best outcome for the libs if. The libs make govt those seats will stay teal but If they back Labor in they will lose.

@John i don’t think you can safely assume teal seats will automatically return to the liberals if their members side with labor. sure these seats have a history with the liberal party but on traditional tpp factors most sit around 5% liberal and with demographic change and political polarisation they will likely become friendlier to the left. the coalition should target outer suburban seats held by labor currently below 8% tpp in my view as these seats will be the first to resonate to duttons conservative leadership

@louis a large portion of the voters that come from. The liberals wouldn’t vote for them if they put Labor in power. They are upset at the liberals but won’t vote Labor but if they had to choose between. Lab9r and liberal they would rather have liberals in.

John
Morgan poll puts the ALP AT 29%. If this concretises it’s significant.
There seems to be a prevailing view, or commentary that the teal seats can be seen as a block, or entity.
Perhaps this is a misdirected assumption ? If the teal seats are viewed singly, or even into groupings they are quite different.
McKellar the libs will retake.
Waringhah Zali retain
N Sydney abolished
Wentworth Alegra retain
Kooyong Libs will retake
Goldstien up for grabs
Curtin IDK depends on the WA rebound
All will be affected by the redistributions..
The Melbourne seats will be affected by the anti semitism outbreak.This will be far more influential than is currently recognised.
The teals were elected on a platform of “real climate action” whatever that’s meant to be, & transparency in govt. What is the outcome ?. An explosion in energy costs, and a (so far inconsequential) real loss of energy security. Rising concerns about the legitimacy, & cost of renewable energy.
The most opaque, and ineffective govt in living memory ? The proposition that the Ukraine war has fuelled inflation, at the same time ignoring the (effect of) increase in govt expenditures of $100s of billions (on and off budget) So much for “transparency !!!!”
ISSUES To which the Teals have had absolutely no (interest?),impact, or influence upon.Consequently how can, or could they claim to have met the election commitments ?
Would anyone seriously suggest they continue their previous platform ? Some will survive propounding the illusion that they are “true independents” FWIW… But most won’t.

@paladin I’m of the same view on the outcome of those teal seats. I think the 2pp in Wentworth will move closer to Labor thanks to the redistribution so long term it might be better for the libs for spender to be there. In Warringah I think the 2pp will improve for the libs thanks to the abolition of NS and Mackellar moving south. Warringah will become an enclave for the teals rather then the centre.

John
Absolutely agree on all counts.
Wentworth looks to have between 20- 30 000 new voters depending on how many are pushed into Kingsford- Smith. (id estimate 5000+). Allegra ought to strongly appeal to at least 60% of them.
Zali could be unseated if the LIBS had a strong candidate, & campaign they are currently incapable of producing. Or someone was that was capable of showing her complete lack of substance. She makes Scomo look like a brain surgeon.
WRT to Curtin, instinct moves me to suggest Chaney’s fortunes are more tied to the fortunes of this govt than the others. Looking at the (voice) referendum results it looks like the Yes campaign won any pre-poll booths, in Curtin. The result itself was knife edge, in contrast to most teal seats. So the most likely conclusion is that Chaney’s survival depends on the indulgence, acquiescence, or even complacency of her electorate
How would you see it ?

Most of the teals only barely got in and that’s thanks to the anti Morrison/govt vote. If they same election were held in 2025 with them competing against the libs in opposition they would have lost. Most of the teals will face redistributions but into friendlier territory however Curtin will shed territory so

Zali’s majority is inflated as she faced on two occasions faced unpopular Liberal candidates. Tony Abbott and Katherine Deves lost votes that Zinnerman, Frydenburg, Sharma would have not lost the booths in Mosman and around Clontarf,Seaforth etc should be sapphire blue. I think Giesele Kapterian for the Libs will run against Zali Stegall and will actually make it a contest.

@nimalan that be said I don’t think the liberals can beat her. Though that will change in 2028 if supports a Labor minority govt

@ John, i dont believe she will be easily beaten but what might happen is that Gisele Kapterian or a moderate liberal in Warringah may increase the Liberal Primary vote to around 40% and outpoll Zali on primaries. There may also be a swing in notional TPP versus ALP terms to Lib. Currently, the notional TPP for the Libs is too low especially with such a low ALP primary vote.

Liberals have selected Frankston Mayor Nathan Conroy as their candidate. This definitely puts the seat in play.

Labor could lose the seat at the by-election but regain in 2025, this has happened before many times.