Dunkley by-election, 2024

As others have pointed out, the electorate is diverse enough that the by election could be used to draw conclusions about how a general election will go, especially with both major parties trying to win a marginal seat.

Oversimplifying here, but you have “teal” Territory in Mt Eliza, lower middle class mortgage belt in Carrum Downs, low income and renters in Frankston itself and Seaford is more typical middle ring Melbourne (the “sand belt” that I think still functions as a state election bellwether even if Labor seems to have it in the bag now)

It would be good to see a chart of the swings at the last election. IIRC There’s a divide between east and west of the Peninsula freeway (and not just in the Green vote)

Ben, Couldn’t the By-election still be held this month? Is there a law saying it has to be at least 30 days or so?

Daniel, I doubt the government would want to have a by-election right in the middle of the holiday season when most people are either focussed on other personal matters or travelling (potentially interstate or overseas). Therefore, the likely date will be after Australia Day sometime in February.

@daniel the writ needs to be issued by the speaker and given the house is only sitting this thursday until it rises i doubt any election will be held until at least february. if the speaker does not set a date this thursday we will have to wait until parliament sits again next year for a date to be set and a certain period needs to elapse 6 weeks i believe? to allow for nominations etc so december is probably out of the question

also depending on how the anti govt vote holds up this could be in play if the libs decide to contest

If we use Ben’s estimated margins, this seat has trended exactly 8% to Labor since 2007. This is the 12th highest of any seat, and behind only Kingston, Franklin and Solomon if you remove the WA seats. The state seats of Carrum and Frankston both seem to be trending Labor as well. I think Labor will win this in a by election and I wonder if it will get hyped up too much as being super winnable for the Libs if there might be damage to Dutton if he doesn’t.

Any hypotheses for why Dunkley and the overlapping state electoral districts have trended towards Labor?

I agree i think it will be mid feb at the earliest after school holidays are over. I think John’s assessment is correct i would flesh it out a bit more Frankston South is upper middle class but as wealthy as Mt Eliza which is old money/private school territory, Frankston North is a public housing area and one of the most deprived areas of urban Australia. It is also away from the Coast so less likely to gentrify. Seaford is a gentrifying suburb and becoming middle class, a higher green vote. However, i would say the suburb to watch for is Langwarrin it is very middle class area, very anglo, a lot of tradies but more higher income than Carrum Downs and so is a good representation of middle Australia. It is also a very family-friendly suburb and can be a good bellwether.

@ Drake
I would say Carrum was actually trending Liberal prior to 2018 as it became wealthier. However, Labor has invested a lot in that area included expanded parklands, Level Crossing Removal, Metro tunnel and State Labor as soared in popularity along the Frankston line. It is also part of the reason that Caulfield became more marginal (Glen Huntly, Ormond) and Sandringham nearly fell in 2018 (Highett, Cheltenham & Mentone)

With the changing re-alignment in Aus politics that’s been happening since 2018, an area becoming richer doesn’t really hurt Labor anymore. If anything it helps them becomes it likely means the area is getting more university educated which helps them.

All the seats that got talked about as getting more Liberal in the past due to gentrification (Jagajaga, Isaacs, Kingsford Smith, Griffith, Macnamara, Moreton) are all basically more Labor than in 2007.

I would say if Turnbull had not be ousted in 2018, then there is a good chance that Macnamara, Griffith could have fallen to the Libs and maybe even Issacs if they had a strong candidate so it is not really fatalism but choices made be parties on who to target. In NSW at a state level gentrification has not really hurt the state Libs (Drommoyne, East Hills, Oatley have had a long term trend to Libs)

It is quite possible Liberals don’t run or downplay their chances to avoid negative implications for Dutton. But despite Murphy winning/notional retaining in 2019, Dunkley should be winnable if the LNP can bring together an election winning voter coalition, given the tendency for by elections to swing against governments. Dunkley may also be on the LNP’s path back to government and they would rather have an incumbent to defend it (although that’s not a requirement – Morrison won in 2019 gaining the seats Labor successfully defended on Super Saturday). So not running will also have a political cost.

IIRC prepoll voting was way down in Mulgrave which will make it even easier to speculate based on booth results.

In my opinion, a redistribution shoud have Mount Eliza removed from Dunkley and move the border of Dunkley to the north as I feel there is a better community of interest due to the Frankston Line and the lack of community interest for Mount Eliza sharing with working class Carrum Downs and public housing Frankston North

@marh mount Eliza is too big for Flinders to absorb

Also moving Dunkley up north like that tends to result in Isaacs becoming a horror show of an electorate stretching from Dandenong to Brighton, so the knock-on results are not worth it.

I agree, i would prefer Issacs focused on Kingston Council. I think the Coastal areas of Casey LGA can go into Flinders instead as Holt is fast-growing.

Nimalan, that’s what I actually proposed. The Pearcedale-Tooradin SA2 from Holt to be transferred to Flinders.

I just had Dunkley taking the small part of Carrum (south of the Patterson River) from Isaacs to get it within the required range of quota.

As for the byelection, I think there’ll be a small swing against Labor but nowhere near enough to wipe out a 6.3% margin.

I know things have changed a lot in terms of Labor’s polling & popularity since the Aston byelection, but that saw a remarkable 6.4% swing towards Labor in a circumstance where there is nearly always a swing against the government.

While obviously it’s two different seats, two different sets of circumstances, a swing big enough to hand Dunkley to the Liberals would effectively represent a -12.7% turnaround for Labor since the Aston byelection.

If anything I just think that while the honeymoon boost (in full effect for the Aston byelection) has been completely wiped out now, their popularity is just back to roughly what it was at the time they won the 2022 election. So I think we’ll see a small swing against as we usually do for byelections, but nowhere near enough to wipe out a 6.3% margin.

Not in Victoria, and not in the southeastern suburbs which have been trending towards Labor.

ive left flinders unchanged due to being within tolerance. liberals would be crazy not to contest this division. with cost of living biting and the govt in disarray and down in the pollls its their chance to wound them even further

@ Trent
In my comments on submissions stage, i have added the suggestion to transfer Casey Coast into Flinders as well. I do agree there will be a swing against the government due to bread and butter issues especially around Langwarrin which i mentioned is a good bellwether. If we compare Aston to Dunkley
1. Dunkley is a much more unequal seat it has areas like Mt Eliza which are much wealthier than any part of Aston (only Lysterfield) comes close but then it as areas that are much poorer like Frankston North and Carrum Downs.
2. Aston is much more ethnically diverse while Dunkley is much more Anglo
One interesting demographic fact about Dunkley/Frankston LGA that it is very irreligious and Langwarrin i mentioned is majority No Religion so i dont think there will be much interest in Trans issues etc so a culture war on this will not really work. Dunkley had one the highest Yes votes for SSM.

@john, the main reason I moved Pearcedale-Tooradin into Flinders was because I restructured the seats around Bruce, Holt & La Trobe so Holt had to free up capacity to take the Clyde North area from La Trobe.

The intention was for Bruce to be based on Dandenong plus the older suburbs beyond it (Hallam, Endeavour Hills); La Trobe to be based on the Narre to Pakenham corridor exclusively (no rural areas); and Holt to be based on the growth areas around the Cranbourne line (also losing its more rural area).

So it made the most sense to send the coastal part of Holt to Flinders which had capacity, and the most of the regional parts of La Trobe (Koo Wee Rup, Bunyip-Garfield) to Monash.

@trent ive move bruce into casey now casey is solely within bruce and holt and bruce and holt sit solely within casey lga as well.

Out of all the states for Labor to hold a by-election Victoria is the best place to have it.

Another interesting thing to see is the absence of Daniel Andrews who seemed to drag down the vote in working class areas as well as the absence of united Australia will be interesting to see.

@spacefish albo seems to be dragging it down at a federal level too

@ Space Fish, Daniel Andrews did quite well in Working Class suburbs in the South East around Dandenong, Hallam, Springvale etc despite these areas being demographically simmilar to northern & western melbourne. It will be more interesting if there was a by-election in Calwell than South East Melbourne

@john, yeah it would all have depended on what seat got abolished. My proposal abolished Hotham which meant that Bruce and La Trobe both had to move west towards the city. Whereas if an outer seat such as Casey or McEwan was abolished, then Bruce & La Trobe would need to move east instead while Hotham would more likely become the Dandenong based seat.

Great points SpaceFish. I feel like a lot of factors dragging both parties votes in 2022 no longer exist and therefore will cancel each other out. The 2022 federal election in Victoria was interesting because there was a real motivation to boot out the Morrison government (the Libs copped a -7% swing) but also there was a cohort of voters wanting to “send a message” to Dan Andrews, and this could have accounted for the 5% UAP vote, and the reason Labor only had a +1% primary vote swing despite the Libs copping a beating.

It possibly wasn’t a case of the -7% LIB vote going 1% to Labor and 6% to alt-right parties; but more likely that there was a significant LIB -> ALP swing mostly cancelled out by an ALP -> UAP/etc swing, in which Labor only came out as a net +1% on primary vote but a net +3.5% on 2PP after preferences.

The combined UAP + LDP vote at the federal election almost exactly matched the combined ‘Freedom’ Party + LDP vote in Frankston at the state election too. So it’s most likely the same cohort of voters in both elections.

Without the Morrison OR Andrews factor this time, and assuming UAP don’t run, those variables are all gone.

And I don’t think voters are currently wanting to take a bat to Albo the way they were for Morrison. Things are tough, and I’m sure some are disappointed that Labor haven’t been more effective at tackling the cost of living, but at the same time I don’t necessarily think working class voters in Frankston & Carrum Downs see the Liberal Party as a better alternative to represent working class interests.

Labor’s polling is still higher than it was at the 2022, even if it has significantly come down from its honeymoon period, while the Liberals’ polling is still only at or around 2022 levels and Dutton is no more popular than Morrison.

I tend to think the result will fall somewhere maybe between the 2019 & 2022 results.

If this is held after the redistribution is held (which I hope is cancelled or amended because in a rapidly growing state, a seat being lost is the last thing we locals want, more people per constituency)

Then I would recommend the parties to campaign in the parties to campaign in the areas that will be added to the seat and focus less on the areas that will be removed from the seat, this will be strategic and will help them at the next election.

I think Labor could lose this simply because it will be a way for the electorate to send the government a message about the voice and other problems. Without risking costing it it’s majority.

If Jane Hume wanted to transfer, this is her chance. (although she doesn’t live here)

Why would Jane Hume transfer here? She would lose…

Labor will lose some of Murphy’s personal vote as she was a fabulous local member. May she rest in peace. Always thinking of others before herself, even in her final days. A true warrior for social justice.

Labor was also about +4.5 more Labor than the national TPP but it will likely come down a fair bit, but there is no way it will come down below the national TPP, even with a byelection.

Frankston, stereotypically, is seen as one of the most working class, deprived suburbs of Melbourne (it has a ‘reputation’) but the area is actually very demographically diverse. However, with Mornington out of the seat, and Mount Eliza only a small proportion, it is largely working class, with middle class Langwarrin the deciding factor.

The fact that Victorians despise Dutton will absolutely help Labor retain.

It’s actually really amazing to think that the people of Frankston have ever had Liberal representatives at either state or federal level, but we all know this was due to Mt Eliza, Frankston Sth etc.

In 2022, there were quite big swings to Labor in Mount Eliza and Langwarrin. In Frankston, Seaford and Carrum Downs, the swings were mixed. The combined 10% vote for UAP, ON and LDP was probably inflated due to pandemic politics and the anti-establishment sentiment. This was more pronounced in Carrum Downs.

I believe the Liberals will contest to test the waters in Victoria and as a mid-term litmus test as part of their realignment strategy and orientation towards working-class outer suburbs. It is also to recoup their lost primary vote in Dunkley and see if they’ve recovered from the Aston by-election.

Labor’s post-election honeymoon ended ages ago but in Victoria is still holding up. Statewide polling doesn’t give the full picture. A geographical breakdown would be nice. The last election was like a number of mini elections and there were seats swinging in either direction. A swing in Dunkley could be cancelled out by a swing in Calwell and of course, the statewide 2PP will more or less be the same.

@trent Ive abolished jagajaga which is in between those two. Ive pushed Hotham eastwards.
Regardless of what happens at the by election I think the redistribution will favour Labor in this seat even more so a liberal victory might be short lived

@daniel t the redistribution doesn’t take effect until the next full election any by elections held before then are held on current boundaries

It seems that Mount Eliza despite having an old average age and being old money area with high Lib votes, it actually had a quite high Yes vote for the Voice Referendum in all booths. I wonder if it is due to a large Wealthy British immigrant population (nearly 10% in the ABS) compare this to Toorak which had one booth that voted No (in the ultra wealthy St George’s area) and another only narrowly Yes?

The various redistribution submissions have Dunkley either pushing up into Patterson Lakes or down into Baxter – both of these areas voted Liberal in 2022. It would be enough to reduce Labor’s margin but not by a significant amount.

@redistributed what about dandenong south sa2? also coupled with the redistribution a swing against labor could put it back in the liberal column

@John, Dandenong South SA2 does not share a community interest with Frankston as it is a heavily non-Anglo area (mainly Albanians from the town is Kisava, and Afghans) south of Dandenong Station and that area is currently in Isaac’s and has a large Labor Vote.

Peta Murphy was my local member and I had spoken to her a only a few times at community events and once at the train station while she was campaigning. She was always pleasant and friendly. She mentioned that her husband was into redistributions, so he would have been following them closely (this was back in 2019).

She always seemed to be an engaged and active local member, and from what I’ve seen, she was well-regarded by people on all sides. She was always at community and local events – and not just when she was invited to be the guest.

So it was sad to hear the news.

Remember, the redistribution has no impact on this by-election. It will be held on the existing boundaries. For the record, one of my original proposals moved Carrum and Patterson Lakes (south of the River) into Dunkley, in the end I left it Isaacs and put Bangholme and Lyndhurst, south of Eumemmering Creek. That area doesn’t really feel like it fits at home with anywhere, its mostly paddocks and green wedge zone. Most of the elector numbers come from a mobile home park on the bank of Eumemmering Creek.
Because the small numbers were all that were needed to bring Dunkley into tolerance, I added that and left it as that.

There are numerous pockets of wildly different demographics. In the south is Mount Eliza which is old money and lots of it. Some of the houses there are worth more than Toorak. Frankston South is the aspirational new money. The problem here is that it’s quit a small area. But it does spill out to the southern parts of Frankston proper.

Then you’ve got the middle Karingal and Heatherhill areas, west of the Mooroduc Highway. This area is not served by Metro trains, there is a diesel train on the Stony Point line but it is such a restricted service that most people wouldn’t use it. Then Langwarrin further east which is newer and decidely middle class.

To the north you have Frankston North, and the northern parts of Frankston, these are very much working class. Carrum Downs then is a mix of boomers that moved to the new estates during the 80s, low socio-economic areas and then more working class, aspirational middle class. And those that missed the boat on housing prices further north. Seaford then is different again, depending on where you are. Belverdere, east of the M3 freeway is more working class, then between the M3 and the railway line it’s more middle class and then a narrow strip of upper class along the Highway and Kananook Creek.

There are large numbers of immigrants in Heatherhill, Carrum Downs and Langwarrin, and somewhat in Karingal. Fewer in most of the other areas.

I think the chance for this area to swing Liberal was 2010-2014. State seats of Carrum and Frankston (and Mordialloc) all went Liberal. But then it swung back to Labor. Hard. Mostly because of state issues, a lot of it to do with the Vic Liberal party treatment of the Frankston Line. Removing it from the City Loop, and proposing to take it out of the city altogther (remember their proposal for a metro tunnel was to go into Southern Cross via the Docklands). I think the whole carpark saga didn’t help when it came to light.

Then, the Liberal Party put up Sharn Coombes from Survivor fame as their candidate in 2022, who didn’t live in the area (well she moved to Mt Eliza) and I’m not sure that went down well, especially in the lower socio-economic areas. Similarly, I don’t think Jane Hume would be accepted here for those reasons.

I think unless an ALP member makes a major gaffe, or the ALP really get on the nose, it’s looking like an ALP seat for a while.

Curiously for me, I was in the Isaacs electorate when the then-member Greg Wilton died too. That’s the only by-election I’ve ever voted in.

so unless the govt sets a date tomorrown we will have to wait until february when it returns. given the controversies of late il wager theyll wait til next year and hope for a reset

It seems like Dunkley will expand northward to Carrum and Patterson Lakes. I don’t think it will lose Mt Eliza to Flinders. If it does, then Flinders will become more competitive for the teals. They tried twice – in 2019 and 2022. At the 2022 state election, the teal candidate for Mornington was ahead on election night but the results flipped once postals and prepolls were counted.

I agree that Peta Murphy’s personal vote boosted Labor’s 2PP. By-elections can be swingy with lower voter turnout and high voter apathy, especially when it’s during the summer or just after school holidays. I still think Labor will hold this. A possible outcome is that the Liberals win the by-election but lose in 2025. On average, there’s a swing away from the government at by-elections. Labor could win/regain in 2025 following redistributions and falling interest rates, improving Albanese’s popularity in the mortgage belt.

@John, because they’re still in mourning, I doubt they’ll set a date so soon. I expect late February or March.

I think this could be much trappier for Labor than many here seem to think.

1) The competency problem, which bedevilled the Morrison Government, is starting to hit this Government. Not just the recent response to the high court decision, but also persistently high inflation, interest rates and energy price rises (which they are now starting to own), conflicting messages on foreign relations (China, Israel/Hamas), failure of the Voice etc are starting to have an effect. This may not be hitting Labor yet, but I certainly wouldn’t want a by election now in a relatively marginal seat.

2) At least some of the 2022 margins are inflated, and working off the 2019 margins makes this much closer. Labor also lose incumbency and sophomore advantages, meaning the Libs have a smaller mountain to climb.

3) Feeding off point 1, as someone noted upthread, a lot of movement here was Lib -> ‘right’ populist parties -> Labor, so if there is still a general ‘anti-government/anti-establishment feeling out there those votes and more could (are likely to?) flow straight back to the Libs.

4) I don’t think it is wise to underestimate how big the detention stuff up will be in the outer suburbs.

Not saying Labor will lose, but I would not be glibly thinking this is just Labor retain.

@vitante bs they dont want to lose the seat. They didn’t seem to when that woman senator died

Looks like will wait til Feb to pick a date at earliest. Which means it will be March at earliest. Constituents now have no representation for 3 months and nowhere to send there enquiries

With Easter on March 30 I’d wager the election would be the week before if not mod April as they won’t be holding an election during Easter holidays

@John, replacing a dead senator doesn’t require a byelection. Generally, school holidays are a bad time for elections. Campbell Newman copped a lot of flak for calling an election for January and the timing was even mentioned in the review of the Queensland LNP’s 2015 election loss. Since it’s close to Christmas, I guess they’ll decide in January and schedule a date in February or March. Hopefully it will be long before Easter.

@she wasn’t a senator she was the member for Dunkley ie on the lower house. A by election is required and to set the date the speaker must set the date in parliament. Given it doesn’t sit until Feb 8 and the usual process that must go on. Issuing writs, nominations etc. the earliest and election will be half is probly March 16 or 23. Given Easter weekend falls on the 30th that’s out and they won’t conduct it during holidays. So if not then they will have to wait until the 20th of April and that seems an awfully long time to deprive people of a local member. So my money’s on march

@john, there is no requirement that parliament be in season for the writs to be issued. The speaker may issue writs at any time. I think we’ll see the writs issued early in the new year, and the election held some time in February.

He must inform the parliament though

What if Kate Lardner ran here as an Independent? It could be the perfect storm if the ”teals” campaign on the fact the government isn’t doing enough to cut emissions, and if they play hard on the fact they keep approving new coal and gas projects.

@ Daniel T
Interesting question the issue is that if a Teal ran. They will only do well in the very affluent areas such as Mt Eliza and Frankston South. They will not do well in middle class Langwarrin/Seaford or low SES F Carrum Downs/Frankston North. A lot of the teal vote is tactical and in a seat where Labor/Greens are competitive the tactical vote will not occur so it is only the small-l-liberal vote. If a Teal ran i expect the Liberal primary in Mt Eliza/Frankston South to drop but Labor PV in these areas will drop as well as they now have a centrist option and some of it will flow back to Libs in preferences

If Labor lose the seat it will for E them to divert more resources to this seat to win it back as I expect the redistribution to be favourable in Dunkley

@ John
if there is a redistribution i expect Dunkley to just move slightly north and have the Paterson River as it northern boundary that should not really make much of an impact to the margin though.