Council margin – GRN 12.3% vs LNP
Mayoral margin – ALP 5.6%
Incumbent councillor
Trina Massey, since 2023. Massey replaced Jonathan Sri as councillor for The Gabba in April 2023.
Geography
Inner south of Brisbane. The Gabba covers the suburbs across the river from the Brisbane city centre, including Dutton Park and West End.
History
The Gabba replaced the Dutton Park ward, which covered the inner south and some nearby areas. Dutton Park was traditionally considered to be a safe Labor ward.
Tim Quinn was first elected as a Labor councillor for the Gabba in 1985. He held the ward covering the area right up until 2003.
Quinn served in civic cabinet throughout Jim Soorley’s mayoralty, serving as deputy mayor from 1997. Quinn was appointed as Lord Mayor to finish Soorley’s fourth mayoral term in 2003, and resigned from Dutton Park. Quinn was defeated by Campbell Newman in 2004.
Helen Abrahams was appointed to finish Quinn’s term as Dutton Park councillor in 2003. Abrahams had previously served one term in Paddington from 1991 to 1994.
Abrahams was re-elected in 2004 with a 9.1% margin over the Liberal Party, but the Greens polled 25.1% in their first contest in the area.
Dutton Park was replaced by the Gabba in 2008, and Abrahams scraped by with a 2.7% margin. The Liberal Party outpolled Labor on primary votes, 37.1% to 35.8%, and Labor only won on Greens preferences.
Abrahams was re-elected again in 2012. She increased her primary vote to 45% mostly at the expense of the Greens, and increased her margin to 8%.
Abrahams retired in 2016, and Labor dropped to third place on primary votes. Greens candidate Jonathan Sri came second on primary votes and won the ward on Labor preferences.
Sri was re-elected with a substantial swing in 2020, and retired from the council in April 2023. His seat was filled by Trina Massey.
- Trina Massey (Greens)
- Rebecca McIntosh (Labor)
- Laura Wong (Liberal National)
Assessment
Sri won by a very comfortable margin in 2020, and the Greens are in a strong position in this area, but the absence of the longstanding local councillor and his replacement by a new face could provide Labor with a chance to regain some of that left-wing vote.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jonathan Sri | Greens | 9,383 | 45.6 | +12.8 |
| Nathaniel Jones | Liberal National | 6,060 | 29.5 | -5.1 |
| Rachel Gallagher | Labor | 5,136 | 25.0 | -5.4 |
| Informal | 495 | 2.4 |
2020 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jonathan Sri | Greens | 11,418 | 62.3 | +7.3 |
| Nathaniel Jones | Liberal National | 6,899 | 37.7 | -7.3 |
| Exhausted | 2,262 | 11.0 |
2020 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 7,177 | 34.8 | -4.9 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 6,728 | 32.6 | +8.0 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 5,646 | 27.4 | -3.7 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 616 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 141 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 116 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 79 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 75 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 47 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Informal | 479 | 2.3 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 9,723 | 55.6 | +2.4 |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 7,753 | 44.4 | -2.4 |
| Exhausted | 3,149 | 15.3 |
Booths in The Gabba have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
The Greens won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred count in all three areas, with a vote of 66-69% in the west and south-east and a vote of 56.5% in the north-east.
Labor’s primary vote ranged from 24.8% in the west to 31.9% in the south-east, but even in the south-east the Greens outpolled Labor.
| Voter group | ALP prim council | GRN 2CP council | ALP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 24.8 | 68.7 | 58.6 | 2,440 | 11.9 |
| North-East | 29.7 | 56.5 | 52.4 | 1,481 | 7.2 |
| South-East | 31.9 | 66.2 | 64.1 | 545 | 2.6 |
| Pre-poll | 25.2 | 66.9 | 57.8 | 8,466 | 41.1 |
| Postal | 21.8 | 58.0 | 47.8 | 4,265 | 20.7 |
| Other votes | 25.3 | 53.4 | 61.9 | 3,382 | 16.4 |
Council election results in The Gabba at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal National Party) and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal National Party and Labor.
Mayoral election results in The Gabba at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, the Greens and Labor.
The Gabba area is now Greens on the local, state and federal level. Greens retain even though Jonathan Sri is gone.
Some observations from doorknocking around the Highgate hill area the other day I’ve seen equal numbers of Greens and Labour signs (liberals no existent unsurprisingly) but the lab signs have been in the most random places. One on a construction site, another on a public car park and the weirdest one, attached to some guardrail on the side of the road. Weird stuff
Some observations from doorknocking around the Highgate hill area the other day I’ve seen equal numbers of Greens and Labour signs (liberals no existent unsurprisingly) but the lab signs have been in the most random places. One on a construction site, another on a public car park and the weirdest one, attached to some guardrail on the side of the road. Weird stuff (also I’m relatively sure is illegal)
This could probably be a GRN vs ALP result.
I’ve yet to look into this ward, but it does seem like it will be a GRN vs ALP.
I’m not sure that’s a contest where GRN will prevail.
I’ve just had a look at the LNP how to vote, and they are (very strangely) running the “Just vote 1” here in The Gabba as well. If the LNP votes heed that call then there is perhaps little to worry about. I think there is literally no hard data for LNP -> ALP / GRN preference flows in council elections, so it will still be novel and nice to see how this turns out.
Trina Massey could run the margin up to 50% – eliminating the need for preference distribution. However, I think this is unlikely, she doesn’t have the incumbency advantage that Sriranganthan has (i.e. its her first time being tested on the electorate) and she definitely doesn’t have the profile. I suspect her first preferences may even drop.
If the margin isn’t run up to 50%, how much does Labor even gain from that position? I am unsure even if that will happen. This seat is quite peculiar.
My feeling is that this seat will drop hard on margin, perhaps ending at a 6-7% margin VS. the ALP. I don’t think it will be the Green’s safest seat in the council after election night – I think that will go to Paddington or Walter Taylor.
Agree Cyrus, this contest may play out similar to the NSW seat of Balmain in the recent state election there (2023). That contest saw a popular incumbent (Jamie Parker) retire, and the open seat recorded a substantial swing (8% in 2CP terms) against the Greens.
For Balmain, Labor benefitted by having nominated a high-profile local councillor as their candidate. This is similar to The Gabba ward where the ALP has also chosen a fairly strong local candidate in Rebecca (Bec) McIntosh. She appears to have very similar credentials to the new appointed Greens councillor (Trina Massey) so that should make the contest more competitive compared to the 2020 result.
What makes McIntosh a strong candidate?
Wilson, I am just pointing out that McIntosh has a similar background in youth activism which may appeal more to the voters of this ward/district. Then again, the previous candidates for Labor against Jono Srinigathan failed to make much headway despite being considered locals in the area.
Going back to the Balmain contest, Labor also didn’t see much success despite running a younger, local candidate for the 2019 election (Elly Howse, who suffered a 5% 2CP swing against her) but then recorded a substantial swing in their favour when Jamie Parker retired.
The one thing that benefits Trina Massey is that she is an appointed incumbent rather than a fresh face, so that would partially offset any swing against the Greens. Especially if she has worked hard to build a local profile compared to the other appointed councillors elsewhere.
“I’ve just had a look at the LNP how to vote, and they are (very strangely) running the “Just vote 1” here in The Gabba as well.”
I don’t know why that is strange? The NSW Liberals have always exhausted preferences in Greens vs Labor races and there’s never been the slightest debate about them changing that decision (despite Labor trying to suggest that was changing in 2023). It’s really obvious why. They don’t like preferencing Labor, and they don’t like preferencing the Greens. Under CPV they have to choose one of two poisons, whereas under OPV they can just choose to take neither poison, so of course they do that.
Fair point. I didn’t consider they hated them equally!
I figure they seen the Greens gunning for a lockdown of the inner city, they could contribute to undermining that narrative here in The Gabba by potentially thinning the margin the Greens hold this seat quite considerably in an ALP vs. GRN matchup.
But yeah I guess at the end of the day it’s much of a muchness to them. Probably simpler to communicate “Just vote 1” across the board.
In NSW elections, it seems like approximately 2/3rds of Liberal votes exhaust in Labor/Greens contests, and the remaining votes split fairly evenly. If this or any other ward does end up as a Labor/Greens contest I doubt LNP preferences will be very decisive because of that – I would expect the primary winner to win in such a contest unless it is very close.
I haven’t done the numbers but at a glance at the past few elections it doesn’t seem like retiring mid-term is necessarily very damaging, which makes sense given the replacement generally has up to a year to build up a profile. A swing against the Greens is possible but I doubt it will be significant, and Sriranganathan running for mayor probably helps offset that. Massey has been pretty active and visible although she doesn’t yet have Sriranganathan’s profile.
@Babaluma great points.
I guess we are all being a bit dour on the Greens in this ward when I think the expectation is that they’re going to have a bit of a ripper of a night.
Perhaps it is more likely that Massey simply runs up to 50% on FPs.
Sri being on the ticket as the mayoral candidate will help stem any loss of personal vote. The “your local Labor team” ads in Balmain were quite compelling – the Greens can very easily do the same in this area.