Council margin – IND 23.4% vs LNP
Mayoral margin – LNP 6.1%
Incumbent councillor
Nicole Johnston, since 2008.
Geography
South-western Brisbane. Tennyson covers suburbs on the south side of the Brisbane River to the south-west of the city centre, including Fairfield, Oxley, Yeronga, Yeerongpilly, Chelmer, Graceville, Sherwood and Corinda.
History
Tennyson was created in 2008 when the Labor-held Dutton Park ward was split between Tennyson and The Gabba. Tennyson was a notional Liberal ward with a 2.6% margin, and the sitting Labor councillor chose to contest The Gabba.
Tennyson was won by Liberal candidate Nicole Johnston with a 10.7% swing, giving her a 13.3% margin.
Nicole Johnston fell out with her Liberal National colleagues, leaving the party in 2010. She was re-elected as an independent in 2012 – the first independent to win a seat on Brisbane City Council in over sixty years. Johnston significantly increased her majority in 2016, increasing her two-candidate-preferred vote from 57% to 76%. She won a second full term as an independent in 2020, with only a slight reduction in her margin.
- Henry Swindon (Liberal National)
- River Kearns (Greens)
- Nicole Johnston (Independent)
- Kane Hart (Labor)
Assessment
Johnston has a very solid hold on Tennyson.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nicole Johnston | Independent | 11,571 | 51.1 | -1.0 |
| Maurice Lane | Liberal National | 4,394 | 19.4 | +0.8 |
| Jackie Schneider | Labor | 3,212 | 14.2 | -2.0 |
| Patsy O’Brien | Greens | 3,058 | 13.5 | +0.3 |
| Darryl Prout | Animal Justice | 428 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 383 | 1.7 |
2020 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nicole Johnston | Independent | 14,253 | 73.4 | -2.8 |
| Maurice Lane | Liberal National | 5,155 | 26.6 | |
| Exhausted | 3,255 | 14.4 |
2020 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 10,158 | 46.8 | -4.5 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 6,236 | 28.7 | -2.0 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 4,054 | 18.7 | +4.5 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 666 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 153 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 149 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 130 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 85 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 73 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 508 | 2.3 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 10,640 | 56.1 | -2.0 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 8,320 | 43.9 | +2.0 |
| Exhausted | 2,744 | 12.6 |
Booths in Tennyson have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south-west.
The sitting independent councillor won a large majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 69.9% in the north-west to 75% in the north-east.
The LNP won a majority of the mayoral two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 53.8% in the south-east and 67.5% in the north-west, as well as in the postal and pre-poll votes. Labor won 55.1% in the north-east.
| Voter group | IND 2CP council | LNP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 75.0 | 44.9 | 2,584 | 11.4 |
| South-West | 70.1 | 53.8 | 2,304 | 10.2 |
| North-West | 69.9 | 67.5 | 1,579 | 7.0 |
| Pre-poll | 78.2 | 57.1 | 7,331 | 32.3 |
| Postal | 76.1 | 58.3 | 5,362 | 23.7 |
| Other votes | 59.3 | 49.6 | 3,503 | 15.5 |
Council election results in Tennyson at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal National Party) and primary votes for independent candidate Nicole Johnston, the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Mayoral election results in Tennyson at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
what are the odds that Cr Johnston would contest the state electorate of Miller?
Johnston has a chance of holding the balance of power after this council election. If she does, then there’s no chance of her departing. If she doesn’t, there’s a chance, but why give up a safe council seat for a speculative bid at a state seat?
Agree Wilson, although many BCC councillors have successfully made the jump to state or federal parliament – those who won ran on a party label (key MPs like Tim Nicholls and Jane Prentice, both from the LNP). Nicole Johnstone, despite being popular locally, may struggle to win the state seat of Miller as an independent.
Also, she will be challenging a sitting Labor MP Mark Bailey who also has a significant profile as a former Minister. Her bid could end up like that of Angela Owen (Calamvale councillor who unsuccessfully challenged Labor MP Graham Perrett in Moreton 2019), where she falls short even in a somewhat favourable anti-government environment.
Yeah I can’t think of a ‘teal’ type politician that’s broken into state politics like this against a labor incumbent, unless you’re counting clover moore (ED of sydney was new so not strictly speaking a contest against a labor incumbent) or you’re casting the net so wide as to include the likes of JLN and the frank carbone people (movements with almost nothing in common with the ‘teals’ whatsoever). what would she run on? who is her constituency? the liberals who know she exists generally hate her. the greens want their own representative in and are organised, unlike a lot of the sydney rabble. she’s got a very comfortable position on BCC already so it seems like a massive risk to take for no real reason.
IF Johnston were to run in Miller and her vote remain unchanged she could get roughly 36% of the vote, the downside is she doesn’t have the voters in Corinda & Oxley like in Tennyson but will have to appeal to voters areas like Rocklea & Moorooka that don’t overlap with her Council Ward.
I definitely don’t see Nicole Johnston contesting Miller unless she loses her ward.
I also don’t see that happening this year – which means she’ll hit the 20-year mark in 2028.
Sure, I can’t say how well or what she’ll do then, but 20 years is a long time and if she loses she may well simply call time on politics.
I think Tennyson’s mayoral vote will provide a good snapshot of the mayoral state of play on the night, as its past mayoral vote has tracked closely to the council-wide vote. In 2020, Schrinner’s margin of victory in Tennyson was 6.1% (council-wide 6.3%), in 2016 7.7% (council-wide 9.3%), in 2012 18.4% (council-wide 18.5%). Clearly, the mayoral vote in Tennyson closely aligns with the council-wide mayoral vote.
In addition, Tennyson contains strong areas for each of the main contenders for Lord Mayor – Corinda (Labor), Chelmer (LNP), and Fairfield and (parts of) Annerley (Greens), so a good snapshot of the overall council. If either Labor or the Greens are winning this ward on 2PP in the mayoral race, I think this indicates the overall mayoral race will come down to the wire.
Maybe Nicole Johnston should run for Mayor in 2028.