Council margin – LNP 1.9%
Mayoral margin – LNP 2.9%
Incumbent councillor
Adam Allan, since 2016.
Geography
Northern Brisbane. Northgate covers the suburbs of Nudgee, Banyo, Northgate and Wavell Heights.
History
Labor’s Kim Flesser held Northgate from 1997 until 2016.
Flesser managed 59.5% of the primary vote in 2000, but his margin was cut to 5.9% in 2004.
In 2008, Flesser’s margin was cut even further to 1.6%. In 2012, Flesser managed to keep the anti-Labor swing to a slim 1.2% and hold on with an extremely slim margin.
Flesser retired in 2016, and a 2% swing gave victory to the LNP’s Adam Allan. Allan was re-elected in 2020 with a tiny swing in his favour.
- Tiana Peneha (Greens)
- Adam Allan (Liberal National)
- Vicki Ryan (Labor)
Assessment
Northgate is a very marginal seat and could be in play in 2024.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adam Allan | Liberal National | 11,315 | 46.7 | +0.0 |
| Reg Neil | Labor | 8,810 | 36.4 | -2.7 |
| Jim Davies | Greens | 4,106 | 17.0 | +2.7 |
| Informal | 666 | 2.7 |
2020 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adam Allan | Liberal National | 11,750 | 51.9 | +0.1 |
| Reg Neil | Labor | 10,911 | 48.2 | -0.1 |
| Exhausted | 1,570 | 6.5 |
2020 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 10,297 | 45.3 | -4.9 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 7,943 | 35.0 | -1.3 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 3,149 | 13.9 | +4.8 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 720 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 213 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 126 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 108 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 87 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 83 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| Informal | 658 | 2.8 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 10,844 | 52.9 | -3.2 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 9,665 | 47.1 | +3.2 |
| Exhausted | 2,217 | 9.8 |
Booths in Northgate have been divided into three parts: central, north-east and west.
The Liberal National Party won the two-party-preferred vote in the west, while Labor won in the centre and north-east. The LNP won the pre-poll, postal and other votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.1% in the north-east to 18.6% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim council | LNP 2PP council | LNP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 19.2 | 48.4 | 50.6 | 3,960 | 16.3 |
| North-East | 12.1 | 44.2 | 47.8 | 1,899 | 7.8 |
| West | 18.6 | 55.0 | 55.4 | 1,422 | 5.9 |
| Pre-poll | 14.8 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 6,669 | 27.5 |
| Postal | 17.0 | 56.7 | 58.0 | 5,483 | 22.6 |
| Other votes | 19.4 | 52.3 | 57.1 | 4,798 | 19.8 |
Council election results in Northgate at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Mayoral election results in Northgate at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
This seat seems to reward and insulate incumbents, which makes me somewhat cautious about Labor’s chances. Labor managed to hold on here by 1.6% in 2008 when they lost their majority, and even more remarkably in 2012 by 0.4% despite the further swing to the LNP and anti-Labor environment. Labor then lost the seat in 2016 despite the council-wide swing back to Labor probably due to losing their incumbent and the Greens splitting the left vote, and the LNP insulated themselves here from a further swing back to Labor in 2020.
That said, given that the LNP have never held this by particularly large margins, and the fact Labor could hold on here in bad years, Labor have potential here. Not sure, I think this is a toss-up.
I think it’s more like COVID rewarded incumbents, and Labor hasn’t even tried for several election cycles. Wavell Heights and Kedron are probably better for the LNP, but places like Nundah, Nudgee, Banyo etc are suburbs that are far friendlier to Labor at the state and federal level. The margin’s tiny. Labor are putting in at least a token effort this time. They’re briefing to the media that they expect to win Northgate. Seems reasonable enough to me.