Council margin – ALP 13.4%
Mayoral margin – ALP 7.9%
Incumbent councillor
Charles Strunk, since 2016.
Geography
South-western Brisbane. Forest Lake covers the suburbs of Richlands, Doolandella and Inala, on the southern edge of Brisbane City.
History
Forest Lake replaced Richlands ward in 2016. Richlands had been traditionally considered to be a safe Labor ward. Labor’s Les Bryant was elected in the area as councillor for Inala in 1991.
A redistribution in 1994 replaced Inala with Richlands, and Bryant shifted to that ward. He was re-elected in 1997, 2000 and 2004.
In 2004, Bryant’s margin was 15.8%. The 2008 redistribution expanded the Labor margin to 18.9%.
Bryant retired before the 2008 election, and was succeeded by Milton Dick, who held on despite a 14.9% swing to the LNP.
Dick was re-elected in 2012, winning a 13.7% swing while Labor was losing ground across the city, and has served as leader of the opposition on the council since 2012.
Dick retired in 2016, going on to win the federal seat of Oxley at the 2016 federal election. He has served as Speaker of the House of Representatives since 2022.
The renamed Forest Lake ward was won in 2016 by Labor’s Charles Strunk, despite a swing of over 12% to the LNP. Strunk was re-elected with a substantially improved margin in 2020.
- Kylie Gates (Liberal National)
- Vi Phuong Nguyen (Greens)
- Charles Strunk (Labor)
Assessment
Forest Lake is a safe Labor ward.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Charles Strunk | Labor | 12,667 | 52.8 | +3.6 |
| Roger Hooper | Liberal National | 7,399 | 30.9 | -9.8 |
| Jenny Mulkearns | Greens | 3,920 | 16.3 | +6.2 |
| Informal | 1,044 | 4.2 |
2020 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Charles Strunk | Labor | 13,971 | 63.4 | +8.1 |
| Roger Hooper | Liberal National | 8,072 | 36.6 | -8.1 |
| Exhausted | 1,943 | 8.1 |
2020 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 11,474 | 44.7 | +1.3 |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 8,258 | 32.2 | -11.5 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 2,716 | 10.6 | +4.4 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 1,636 | 6.4 | +6.4 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 445 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 441 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 423 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 183 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 110 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| Informal | 1,232 | 4.6 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 12,898 | 57.9 | +7.6 |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 9,375 | 42.1 | -7.6 |
| Exhausted | 3,413 | 13.3 |
Booths in Forest Lake have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the council two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.5% in the south to 65.6% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim council | ALP 2PP council | ALP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 18.2 | 59.5 | 55.3 | 3,555 | 14.8 |
| Central | 22.8 | 65.6 | 61.1 | 1,973 | 8.2 |
| North | 24.3 | 65.3 | 64.6 | 923 | 3.8 |
| Pre-poll | 14.1 | 63.6 | 57.7 | 11,975 | 49.9 |
| Postal | 13.2 | 66.9 | 58.3 | 3,588 | 15.0 |
| Other votes | 22.1 | 59.7 | 54.5 | 1,972 | 8.2 |
Council election results in Forest Lake at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
Mayoral election results in Forest Lake at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
The Courier Mail reports that the local Labor branches are furious with Strunk for sacking popular staffer Nayda Hernandez, who is now running as an independent in the Inala by-election. They have now passed a motion of no confidence in Strunk, and I can’t imagine many will be keen to volunteer for him. I expect a large swing against Labor here, but the margin is so great that I would imagine Strunk retains the ward.
Wilson, if that is true then perhaps a likely outcome will be a swing of similar magnitude to last election. Only this time will it be in the opposite direction, returning the seat to marginal status.
Doing a quick look at ECQ looks like the Greens actually came first on primaries in the Inala booth and came close in the Durack Booth obviously small numbers as these were smaller election day booths but still interesting to see.