Coorparoo – Brisbane 2024

A contentious issue in this ward is the redevelopment of the Gabba for the Olympics, which would involve demolishing the primary school next door (right on the edge of the ward boundary) and moving it to Coorparoo, a suburb away. There has been community opposition to the school relocation, as well as the price tag of the project.

The new Premier Steven Miles has announced a pause on the Gabba redevelopment process, which may not be lifted by the time of the council election. The community will see this as a win, but who will gain from it? The Greens, who have been fighting against it from the beginning, or the LNP, since Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner recently coming out against the project was probably the trigger for this pause?

It should also be noted that the numbers from the 2020 council election don’t reflect the huge swings towards the Greens and away from the LNP across all these booths in Griffith 2022. On that basis you’d think the Greens are an excellent chance of taking this ward, but Queenslanders are also notorious for voting different ways at different levels of government.

It says on the Wikipedia page the 2pp preferred here is Labor 51.2/LNP 48.8

Is this true? Do they work out the 2CP in council elections? Or is this an estimate based on preference flows in other seats/mayoral preference flows?

Drake, the Wikipedia article gives the ABC as its source. The ABC page only reported a 2CP between the LNP and the Greens, not a major party 2PP figure. The Electoral Commission of Queensland page also doesn’t give a major party 2PP figure, only the 2CP. So I’d say the figure has been made up by a Wikipedia editor.

Green gain, Greens will make 1 seat gain and this will be it. LNP will not repeat their high watermark of 2016/2020. They stand to lose this time but they will still win a small majority in the council.

What happens if the council is a hung council? Who has control?

Interesting prediction, Daniel. It’s a fun contrast with Furtive Lawngnome, who predicts the Greens will win 3-4 other wards, but not Coorparoo. I personally think the very slim margin Paddington is on makes it the most likely Greens gain, with Walter Taylor not far behind, but there’s a possibility that you’d be correct if Max Chandler-Mather’s constituents are impressed with him, but Elizabeth Watson-Brown’s constituents aren’t with her. We’ll see.

If the council is hung, since both the LNP and Labor have repeatedly stated they do not want to work with the Greens, there is the possibility of LNP minority control of the chamber with Labor support. But perhaps there will be a true three-way split with no pact between either side. In that case, perhaps the independent Nicole Johnston becomes the Council Chair (BCCs version of the speaker) as a compromise candidate, and all new bills are negotiated rather than waved through easily by the administration. It’d be interesting to see whether that creates a better outcome for residents than the LNP having it all their own way.

Labor not having voting preferences will give the impression that only voting for labor will mean another 4 years of LNP & would hurt their credibility. Strategically you’d vote Green in this ward.

Predicting this ward is a genuine toss-up with neither the LNP nor Greens having an edge. I think the 5.7% margin is inflated due to the equal vote split of Labor and the Greens in 2020. With the Greens likely to surge ahead of Labor, the combined Labor and Green vote will be more concentrated with the Greens, so the effect of Labor votes exhausting will be much less than in 2020. If I had to go one way or the other, I would predict a Green win here.

I think I’m a bit more bullish on a Greens victory here than you are, GPPS. They got started late, but I think that won’t matter because of how hard the whole Coorparoo Ward area swung to the Greens in 2024. I’d be surprised if the Greens didn’t win this seat.

Wilson, I am leaning more to the side of the LNP. Even though the Greens had a huge surge in vote here at the federal election – local politics is different, and results may not be directly comparable.

For local council elections in Sydney, the comparable Inner West Council still recorded a substantial vote for the Liberals and conservative independents, although the Liberal Party chose to abstain from the most recent (2021) election there.

Nevertheless, a swing up to 3-4% is expected but I still think the LNP hang on by a whisker (about 1-2%) in the end.

I am also aligning a bit closer to @Yoh An’s assessment. When I first looked at a lot of these wards overlaid with the Federal Election results, it did look great for the Greens. However, after reviewing the exhaustion-rate of preferences at the 2020 Brisbane Council election, it made the prospect look more difficult for the Greens. It’s interesting taking the Federal election primary votes and applying a much weaker preference flow from Labor to the Greens, it improves the results for the LNP significantly.

Here’s an example of the comparison between the Federal division of Brisbane and the Central Ward specifically. At the Federal election, Labor’s preferences split between Greens and LNP ~83% – ~17% when they were excluded from the count. For Central Ward, the preferences split 41.1% (Greens), 11.5% (LNP) and 47.4% exhausted. Applying the optional BCC Central ward preference allocation to the 3CP results in the Federal division of Brisbane, LNP would have just beat out the Greens with around 51.7% of the vote on 2CP. The Brisbane 3CP figures I used were 30.09% – Greens, 28.43% Labor, 41.48% LNP.

Here’s an example of Federal division of Ryan treated with the same optional preference distribution as Walter Taylor in 2020:

Ryan preference distribution:
81.6% – 18.4%

Walter-Taylor preference distribution:
40.1% – 9.9%, 50% exhausted

Ryan 2CP using Ryan 3CP & Walter-Taylor preference allocation would have ended with a LNP vote of 51.3%, narrowly beating out the Greens.

Here’s an example of Federal division of Griffith treated with the same optional preference distribution as Coorparoo in 2020:

Griffith preference distribution:
81% – 19%

Coorparoo preference distribution:
38.9% – 11.8%, 49.3% exhausted

Griffith 2CP using Griffith 3CP & Coorparoo OPV would have ended with Greens still on top with a reduced, but still significant vote of 56.2%. Of course, much of this Greens vote is concentrated into the West End corner of Griffith, which The Greens held Gabba ward is positioned in though. Still, based on the Griffith booths within Coorparoo ward, there was some extremely strong booths for the Greens. If I get some time tomorrow, I might figure out the notional 3CP vote% of Coorparoo ward using the Griffith results and then apply the 2020 preference distribution to see what ballpark notional 2CP we end up with.

SEQ Observer, those already weak 40% or so preference flows from Greens to Labor have the potential to drop even further, given that Labor is not actively recommending preferences this time round.

I’m not sure what Labor’s stance was last election, but if they did recommend preferences to the Greens then this change of strategy could see Labor to Green preferences as low as 30%, with an exhaustion rate exceeding 50%.

I know the figures SEQ Observer gave are indicative only, but I do think the primary votes will differ even from the booth results in Griffith 2022. This is partly because Labor have not run a very active campaign from what I’ve seen while the LNP and Greens have, and partly because of increased momentum after 2022. The realisation that the Greens can win in an area like this and the increased name recognition of Max Chandler-Mather may cause the Greens primary to increase. I could be wrong, but I’m still sticking to my prediction of a Greens gain.

SEQ Observer’s analysis is deeply flawed. You cannot analyse what might happen in Central by looking at all booths from the division of Brisbane. That is insane. The central ward section of Brisbane is much stronger for the Greens than elsewhere and they would have easily won Central on fed 3CP figures using OPV and standard exhaust rates. I don’t even know why you’d post such analysis without looking specifically at the booths in the Ward you are analysing, especially since you recognise as much when talking about Coorparoo. All of the Greens main BCC targets would be won using OPV on fed22 numbers.

@SEQ Observer is wrong

I’ve only dumped calculations here to provide a raw indication of how optional preferential voting can alter the performance of the Greens.

I’m not attempting to extrapolate all Brisbane Fed results to stand in for Central. If I had time I would do a notional count based on the specific booths but it sounds like you’ve already done it.

@Wilson @Yoh A while I expect a big boost in the Greens primary vote from the 2020 BCC election. I currently expect that this vote will fall short from the Federal election results. Mostly due to the incumbency advantage of the LNP which will give the LNP a strong primary vote to start with. These expectations might change if I see some polling on the BCC election that suggests otherwise. But until then I’m operating on the assumption that Schrinner and LNP are fairly well regarded at BCC level.

Agree seq observer, the large swing against the lnp federally was probably due to Scott Morrison’s unpopularity.

Bcc has a decent and fairly popular leader (schrinner) who at least is seen as competent and delivering a good infrastructure program, similar to dom perrrottet as nsw premier.

The most recent nsw election did see a swing against the coalition, but not that large so the lnp in bcc can easily weather any modest swing against them.

Any Ward with <6% margin can easily flip over especially if the government has been in office for 16 years

Fiona Cunningham seems to have replaced Krista Adams as the LNPs attack dog this week, being the latest to accuse the Greens of supporting crime and demanding Labor distance themselves from the Greens. Perhaps she’s now concerned of losing her seat, so she’s coming out swinging.

The LNP is very concerned about this seat, and they are right to be. They did a flyer-drop this week in the ward trying on the standard “Greens want to break into your houses and murder your children” angle of attack. At the same time, they also ran a campaign on Facebook with the same message, and a very misleadingly edited footage of Jono Sriranganathan.

It’s a bit disturbing how quickly they attack the mayoral candidate of colour with this sort of attack, and lump in Kath Angus as well for good measure. Who is a midwife, not an organized crime member, and certainly hasn’t made any comments even close to the nature of provocation that Sriranganathan has made.

It seems the LNP see Sriranganathan as the achilles heel here in Coorparoo. They could be right, Sriranganathan hasn’t been seen in the ward at all and he doesn’t appear to be popular in the area. But I think this ward is becoming a safer flip for the Greens.

Coorparoo does have a lot of old people who will be scared off by someone like Sriranganathan. I do think that there are still some areas and demographics where a party needs to present a candidate who looks “safe” (by which I mean white and middle class) and has a manner of speaking that is within the comfort zone of the voters. This isn’t limited to Brisbane, the Liberals notably overturned their own preselection in Cook to install the Anglo-Australian Scott Morrison as candidate over the Lebanese-Australian Michael Towke. Though it has been alleged Morrison used some underhanded tactics to bring that about.

Nearly half of the election signs I’ve seen were for the Greens, & I know the suburb like the back of my hand.

What I’ve seen from around coorparoo and being out doorknocking is there is a stark divide in the apparent support level between the eastern and western parts of the electorate. I’ve seen streets in East Brisbane where every second house has Kath Angus signs but when u get to the eastern end there are a lot more Fiona Cunningham signs up. However I have seen Green signs in every part of the ward but Liberal posters are non existent west of Logan road and Norman creek. I’ve also talked to a number of strong Green supporters in the east of ward who seem a bit nervous to put a Green sign up given the comparatively strong LNP presence.

@Sam yeah the number of election signs is sparse among the south-east end, i’ve even seen a couple of houses that still have the vote yes signs still but they could either be Labor or Green, but i have seen a Schrinner Sign that has coffee stains spilled on it.

I think the LNP will need to increase their primary vote to hold onto this seat, and I just can’t see that happening. One “similar” example under OPV that comes to mind is Pittwater in the 2023 NSW election. All other things equal, if the Libs had done any worse than the 44.7% primary they got, I think they would’ve lost. The LNP here in Coorparoo are already at that position, and I think it will only fall further.

The combined “left” vote (ALP + GRN) is already 55.1%, which seems a winnable position for either ALP or GRN provided that the “left” vote splits more lopsidedly (efficiently) to minimise the effect of preference leakage (e.g. say 35/20 vs actual 27.5/27.6). I think both of these factors will work in the Greens favour at this election – the combined left vote will increase beyond 55.1%, the left vote will consolidate more around the Greens, and there will be a lot more HTVs than last election, so better preference flows between ALP/GRN. All these factors point me to predicting a Green win here.

Another thing to note is that the LNP lost ground on their primary vote in 2020 (compared to 2016) with some striking proportionality to the population growth in the area. There was approx. 1.9% more votes in the ward in 2020 than there was in 2016, and the LNP lost about -1.7% in their primary in 2020 from 2016.

On population growth alone Queensland in general, but Brisbane in particular, has seen a surge since the pandemic. The ABS publishes data here https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2021-22 which lets you determine the approx. population growth in the ward between 2021-2022 and unfortunately will only publish the 2022-2023 estimates after the election.

Good news for the Greens is that East Brisbane and Greenslopes grew by approx. 2% and 1.7%, respectively over 2021 and 2022. Woollongabba also grew a massive 4% over this year, but I think the vast majority of that growth will be outside of the Coorparoo ward’s boundaries (which only slightly cut into the Woollongabba SA2 area). The “LNP heartland” of the seat, the Coorparoo SA2 region grew by a pittance, 0.4% during the same period.

Not all of this new population will vote, and it’s not typical to change how you vote based on where you move to. However, I think when you pair this trend with the decline of the 2 party system within the Australian capital cities, the strength of the Greens’ ground game in the ward, the 20 years of LNP hegemony on the council and the strength of the candidate in Kath Angus, there is a very compelling view for a Greens flip here.

I think they are seriously concerned about Sriranganathan, and I think they are right to be, but I don’t foresee his lack of popularity within the ward being strong enough to maintain Fiona Cunningham’s seat.

I did some further digging because I realised I have half-baked my own idea in the previous comment. The following breakdowns are for SA2 regions. Coorparoo, Greenslopes and East Brisbane map perfectly (at least from what I can tell) to the suburb boundaries in the Coorparoo ward map. The SA2 portion of Woolloongabba is approximately half accounted for in the Coorparoo ward map, and it is a similar story for Camp Hill. So these breakdowns should be taken with a grain of salt for Woolloongabba and Camp Hill.

In the SA2 breakdown, between 2016 and 2020, we saw population growth of:
Coorparoo 10.3%
Greenslopes 6.7%
East Brisbane 8.3%
Camp Hill 6.2%
Woolloongabba 9.9%

In absolute terms that is:
Coorparoo 1792
Greenslopes 668
East Brisbane 516
Camp Hill 741
Woolloongabba 604

In the SA2 breakdown for 2020 to 2024 we’re likely (there is some forecasting involved) to see a breakdown like this:
Coorparoo -0.1%
Greenslopes 7.1%
East Brisbane -1.5%
Camp Hill 2.3%
Woolloongabba 43.3%

In absolute terms:
Coorparoo -24
Greenslopes 751
East Brisbane -112
Camp Hill 281
Woolloongabba 3010

It’s worth noting that these are population projections, not voter projections, but my gosh you really just can’t look at that and think it indicates anything but a dagger at the heart of the LNP primary vote in the ward. You simply have far, far, more people in the areas of the ward to vote for the Greens. A decent amount of those people will be voters.

This data comes from the ABS source in the my prior comment.

Sriranganathan was in Holland Park the other day apparently. If he’s really considered unpopular around Coorparoo, it seems odd to me he’d then visit the neighbouring ward.

Perhaps he’s been doing more north of the river than south as north is where there is a larger deficit in the Greens/Labor mayoral 2PP in target wards than on the southside – i.e the LNP perform much more strongly in the mayoral race than the council margin in Walter Taylor, Enoggera, Paddington etc (strong ticket splitting for Adrian Schrinner there) whereas in Coorparoo and Holland Park, the Labor/Green mayoral 2PP is very similar to the ward margin so less mayoral votes to have to make up for.

Obviously I can’t comment on the candidate’s strategy, but Sriranganathan has a very, very, low chance of winning the mayoralty. I can’t imagine he would choose to jeopardise a candidate that has a good shot of flipping a council seat in order satisfy his own, much less realistic, ambitions. There are good reasons to run, it sows the seeds for the next campaign primarily by growing your donor and volunteer lists, and helps build out your organisational footprint. I think Sriranganathan can expect to achieve some of those less outwardly attractive objectives.

I would imagine he would know where he is popular and where he is not, so I suspect the abscence of Sriranganathan and Sriranganathan election signs in the Coorparoo ward are not a co-incidence. You’ll see plenty of Kath Angus signs, but few Sriranganathan signs in the ward. I don’t think that is an accident.

I think this will be a Green gain, even if they don’t perform well in some Wards/the Mayorality as they’re suggesting they will. @Cryus is on the money with the detailed, objective analysis of the shift in population demographics in the area. The incumbent Councillor, Fiona Cunningham, seems to tick all of the boxes of how to behave in an area where the Greens are on the rise, but it just won’t be enough to combat the overwhelming advantages the Greens have with younger voters and the unshiftable antipathy LNP-leaning voters have towards the party in all inner-Metro areas on the East Coast of Australia.

Cyrus, I wouldn’t necessarily say the vast majority of population growth in Woolloongabba recently has been outside the Coorparoo Ward boundaries. One of the biggest recent developments in Woolloongabba has been South City Square, which lies within Coorparoo Ward. Stages 4 and 5 of this project were completed between 2022 and 2023. Space is at such a premium that I would expect a healthy level of population growth in each ward’s slice of Woolloongabba.

That is a good point @Wilson! Even more reasons to be bullish for a Greens pickup here.

Another ward where the Greens just cannibalised Labor’s vote instead of making big inroads into the LNP vote.

Yep, pretty much. In OPV you do need to eat into that primary vote of the candidate ahead of you. I think most people expected at least a slight swing against the LNP – which would grant that to the Greens & Labor – but that basically didn’t happen Brisbane-wide. Without that, pretty much impossible to make pickups in OPV.

The Greens appear to have underperformed their federal vote share here. According to Antony Green’s calculations, the rough Green primary vote in the 2022 federal was 40% in Coorparoo ward. They are sitting at 35% now which wasn’t high enough to win. Seems like there are a fair few swing voters who vote for Max Chandler-Mather at a federal level and Fiona Cunningham at a council level… an interesting thought.

This is an area of Brisbane where campaigning has been oriented against Labor for quite some time. I remember Max Chandler Mather standing out for much more readily attacking Labor (in federal opposition) than most other Greens.

On the other hand the campaigns in Maiwar etc. have been much more successful at getting former LNP voters.

But both approaches will be needed – “if you don’t like Labor, we hear you, but vote for us instead of the LNP to get real representation and change”

So much for the Greens claims they were “only 300 votes away from winning” and then “only 150 votes or 0.06% away from winning”. Current estimate is that they’re about 800 behind and that could grow further. The absents still to come will be heavily coloured by strong LNP booths like Carindale prepoll, Camp Hill and Holland Park. The arrogance of the Greens and their supporters knows no bounds. Hopefully their “internal polling methods” STAY internal from now on. Their published primary vote results for Paddington and Walter Taylor appear to have been way off the mark and they were in 2020 as well.

The Greens campaign as if people have serious issues with the Brisbane City Council, yet time and time again the incumbent team is re-elected with little skin lost. Voters will become increasingly dubious of Greens claims going forward. And the premature call of Walter Taylor at their election night function was a disgusting thing to do. I feel bad for Michaela that she was put through that humiliation by Sriranganathan when there was absolutely no reason to. Could end up being a similar result in Paddington – time will tell.

The premature Walter Taylor call was likely done when the ABC computer (which was struggling all night) called it as long as it didn’t disagree too much with scrutineers. Sad for Michaela.

The results in Coorparoo suggest the seat is winnable but they didn’t quite make it. Same with all the other seats they mentioned at the press conference. They may have systemically underestimated the LNP vote and ALP exhaust but it wasn’t dishonest, and it would be important for volunteer recruitment on election day to show there’s something to play for.

Spare us all the mock outrage, Mike. Your pre-existing antipathy towards the Greens is very apparent.

The rage at a party competing to be elected is something I will never understand.

The public thrives in a healthy, competitive, democracy. How much hate does one need to have to be blinded to that simple, core, fact of democracy.

Even I knew it was going to take more 300 to win. maybe I should throw my hat into the arena in 2028?