Wynnum Manly – Brisbane 2016

Council margin – ALP 0.6%
Mayoral margin – LNP 10.6%

Incumbent councillor
Peter Cumming, since 1994.

Geography
Eastern Brisbane. Wynnum Manly covers along the eastern coastline of Brisbane on the south side of the river, including Manly, Wynnum, Lota and Lytton.

Map of Wynnum Manly's 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Wynnum Manly’s 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Wynnum Manly underwent minor changes, swapping a small amount of territory with Doboy.

History
Labor’s Peter Cumming won Wynnum Manly in 1994. He has been re-elected five times.

His margin was cut to 5.8% in 2004, when the LNP won the lord mayoralty, but managed to increase his margin to 9.1% in 2008.

In 2012, Cumming’s 9.1% margin was cut to 1.2%.

Candidates

Assessment
The Labor margin in Wynnum Manly is very slim, but it seems unlikely that the Liberal National Party will be able to gain even more wards on top of their current 18.

2012 council result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Peter Cumming Labor 9,019 43.0 -10.2 42.8
Deirdre Thomson Liberal National 8,808 42.0 +4.2 42.8
Matthew Brown Greens 1,427 6.8 -2.1 7.9
Barry Myatt Independent 1,715 8.2 +8.2 6.5
Informal 472 2.2

2012 council two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Peter Cumming Labor 9,677 51.2 -7.9 50.6
Deirdre Thomson Liberal National 9,231 48.8 +7.9 49.4
Exhausted 2,061

2012 mayoral result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 11,454 54.8 +2.8 55.1
Ray Smith Labor 7,045 33.7 -4.6 33.5
Andrew Bartlett Greens 1,867 8.9 +2.2 8.8
Rory Killen Independent 315 1.5 +1.5 1.5
Chris Carson Independent 217 1.0 +1.0 1.0
Informal 542 2.5

2012 mayoral two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 11,660 60.3 +3.4 60.6
Ray Smith Labor 7,692 39.8 -3.4 39.4
Exhausted 1,546
Polling places in Wynnum Manly at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. North in blue, South-East in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Wynnum Manly at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. North in blue, South-East in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Wynnum Manly have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

In the council election, the ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote, ranging from a slim 50.1% in the south-east to 55.9% in the south-west.

For the mayoral election, the LNP’s two-party-preferred majority ranged from 56.5% in the south-west to 62.7% in the south-east.

Voter group ALP council 2PP LNP mayoral 2PP Total votes % of votes
South-East 50.1 62.7 6,288 28.9
North 52.0 60.0 5,537 25.4
South-West 55.9 56.5 3,602 16.5
Other votes 47.2 61.3 6,338 29.1
Two-party-preferred votes for mayor in Wynnum Manly at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for mayor in Wynnum Manly at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Wynnum Manly at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Wynnum Manly at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.

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