Wills – Australia 2022

im sure they will change. personally i hope they do as i dont like the yarra crossing in melbourne

If Fatima Payman is expelled then the Greens /Socialists can use this against Labor here. It may actually sign off Peter Khalil’s political death certificate.

As long as Samantha Ratnam is the Greens candidate here she won’t win. She gives me Alex Bhatal vibes (former failed Greens candidate for Batman)

She doesn’t come across as a star candidate or inspiring like Mad Max in Griffith and Bates in Brisbane. I would rank her worse than a “Generic Greens candidate”

@Nimalan you may or may not be happy to hear that Richard Marles this morning has indicated on radio that they won’t be expelling Payman for crossing the floor. Of course she’ll probably be disciplined but I expect nothing more than a ‘warning’ from Albanese and co, nothing too dramatic as they know they can’t afford to lose anyone in the Senate as they’re in minority and if they do the repercussions for Labor in all of their CALD seats in Northern Melbourne and Western Sydney will be nothing but catastrophic next year as Muslim/Middle Eastern voters form a large part of Labor’s voting base.

@Daniel T I respectfully disagree. Given she’s led the Greens on a state level she’d have a fairly high profile and last time she contested the seat she made the seat marginal for the first time in decades. If the redistribution goes ahead as planned it will only add to the Greens base in Brunswick, Fitzroy and others, a majority of those places where the population has a habit of speaking before they think on issues like Palestine amongst others and could win purely based off this sort of manical, populist thinking.

Labor do seem acutely aware of the optics of the Fatima Payman floor crossing and Richard Marles statement today is a diplomatic approach to the issue that does fan any more outrage. There are a few scenarios going forward:
– Fatima Payman has made her point and from now on in will sit quietly up the back.
– She will be emboldened and keep going possibly until the situation becomes untenable – the Lydia Thorpe approach.
– It will embolden other Labor MPs to cross the floor on issues. “Fatima Payman got away with it so why can’t I?
Inevitably in a Labor Party where memories are long she will be either dropped to an unwinnable spot in 2028 or disendorsed when the time comes around.

sorry … “does NOT fan ..”

Samantha Ratnam definitely has a local profile in the area and has a good chance of winning. As state leader however she has had little or no cut through on the wider political stage. Bandt and MCM have no threat from her being a leadership contender. I am not sure why the Victorian Greens can never find a leader who has any presence or cut through.

“Presence and cut through” seems to be dictated by either high energy (like Chandler-Mather) or media attention. Unfortunately for any Greens politician who isn’t high energy, the likelihood of getting media attention is low in such a concentrated media landscape.

@ Tommo9
I did see Richard Marles statement on Fatima Payman after i posted this.. As mentioned, in the Macnamara thread i have friends in both communities so i am not saying if what Fatima Payman did do was morally right or wrong. However, i know it will be received differently in different demographics. For example the attacks on Fatima Payman among the Libs will hurt them in the seat of Bruce/Holt where there is a growing Afghan community and also Werriwa where there is a large Muslim community. This is especially interesting when the Libs wanted to abandon the affluent for working class outer suburbs. However, there are lot more Muslims in those areas than Teal seats.

@Nimalan Middle Eastern/Muslim voters have always been more entrenched as part of Labor’s voting base so Labor has to be very careful treading waters on this, because if they expel her for this then there’s guaranteed to be backlash and too many seats to count that would all be at risk (Not just Wills, but also Cooper, Calwell, Scullin, Chifley, Greenway, Werriwa, McMahon, Parramatta, Watson, Blaxland, Macarthur, Cowan, Oxley, Rankin), and they won’t even be guaranteed to sandbag Macnamara successfully in trying to appease the Jewish voters east of Chapel Street. In short it’s an electoral risk they just cannot afford, particularly in alienating their loyal voting base. It’s political suicide.

Yes Payman crossed the floor but the government was going to move an amendment to the motion which suggests to me that the government technically supported this motion and she was following the party lines, just not the amendment as it was voted down.

*Also adding to that Bruce, Holt, Isaacs, Hawke, Gorton. Too many to name.

@ Tommo9
Cooper is only 4.2% Muslim and Labor has support south of Bell Street as well, Issacs, Oxley is also less than 5%. I dont think in those 3 seats, the Muslim vote will be enough to impact. Full list can be found on the link below. Some right wing Liberals prior to October 7 used to believe they can win Muslim votes by focusing on social conservativism such as Trans issue especially since they dont want the Teal seats back. They was also a feeling the Geopolitics has shifted from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. However, the Middle east is a volatile region and something can always go wrong.

Full list of electorates by Muslim%
https://www.muslimvotesmatter.com.au/electorates

@ Nether Portal
From WA Senate thread
I am not sure that Muslims will not vote Greens/Socialists just due to their stance on LGBT issues.

@Nimalan not just LGBT but also critical race theory, etc. I just can’t imagine it happening.

@ Nether Portal
Just like Wilson stated in the WA Senate thread about abortion. i dont know how Critical Race theory is relevant to Muslims as hardly any of them identify as White (with possible exceptions of Bosnians & Albanians). If you listen to Palestinian activists such as Randa Abdel-Fattah or Nasser Mashni they have often argued that both Australia and Israel are settler colonial states and draw comparisons with the indigenous cause. You will see Aboriginal Flags at Pro-Palestine rallies but not Australian flags.

@Nimalan while that is true it’s just hard for me to understand why a Muslim who opposes the Greens’ social agenda would support the Greens simply due to a conflict that’s not really any of our business as Australians. (Though in saying that I’m a bit autistic so I don’t understand a lot of things.)

I do agree that some Invasion Day protesters are also pro-Palestinian protesters so critical race theory is probably the wrong example. However I have no idea what the Greens policy on LGBT education is called, but basically the stuff right-wingers call “woke grooming” but I just call “woke” since nothing can be compared to paedophilia or paedophiles (perhaps the worst people in the world along with terrorists).

Nether Portal, where is the evidence for this general consensus of Australian and British Muslims being more conservative than American Muslims that you claimed in the WA Senate thread? I have not heard of this consensus reported anywhere.

@Wilson:

Most Australian Muslims are against same-sex marriage and some even believe that homosexuality is a sin that is unacceptable. Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-31/same-sex-marriage-why-have-muslims-been-so-quiet-in-debate/8860486

Many high-ranking sheiks and imams are also homophobic. Malcolm Turnbull even regretted inviting Sheikh Shady Alsuleiman to an Iftar dinner at Kirribilli House in 2016. Former Australian Grand Mufti Ibrahim Abu Mohamed defended Alsuleiman saying that homosexuality is a sin, and Hizb ut-Tahrir (an Islamic extremist organisation that has an Australian branch) declares that homosexuality is a sin and a disease. Some Muslims even believe that homosexuality is a disease, though this is a minority view that is held by Islamists not normal Muslims.

As to why a Muslim who opposes the Greens’ social policies would support the Greens due to Palestine, it’s entirely possible that Palestine means more to them than any social policy. Many of them would strongly disagree with the idea that the conflict is none of our business as Australians, just as many people would strongly disagree with the idea that the Holocaust was none of our business as Australians.

While there’s obviously a diversity of opinions and priorities among Muslim Australians, I’m sure there are many who don’t consider social policy to be the most important factor when voting. After all, it’s not like same-sex marriage is going to be overturned, and neither major party is campaigning on that, so you’d think people would realise after a decade that political opposition is futile.

Nether Portal, that’s good to know, but it doesn’t prove that there’s a general consensus of Australian and British Muslims being more conservative than American Muslims, which was your claim. Can you substantiate that? There are also Muslim clerics in the United States who believe homosexuality is a sin.

Muslims in Northern Melbourne that can’t Labor (due to vague Middle Eastern stance) or the Greens (due to Social Policy) might plan to vote for Victorian Socialist as they already have a high voting number plus they focus and campaign much more on Palestine and economic issues rather than their own socially progressive views.

@Wilson, Muslims in USA tend to be more secular, educated and wealthier although they still mostly support Palestine hence there are fears Biden might lose Michigan (by extension probably the election) to Trump since it has the highest percentage of Arabs.

Marh, I didn’t think the Greens would be campaigning on social policy in a place like Wills. Is that the situation on the ground? If not, then I think the VS effect may not be as high as in the last state election, as they don’t have the volunteer power or the media traction that the Greens do.

The victorian socialists will preference Greens over Labor though

@Nimalan further to your point about the perception that prior to October 7 geopolitics shifting from the Middle East to the Indo Pacific/China, support for AUKUS might have been higher among Muslim communities due to general heightened anti-PRC sentiment at the time. Ironically, the shift in focus to the Gaza means the Libs’ rhetoric on China have moderated to the point that Dutton has declared himself “Pro-China”, giving the Libs a potential opportunity for a comeback among the middle ring Chinese seats that they lost or nearly lost. Dutton has pretty much given up on the teal seats which means the only way back for the Libs to even a minority government is to sweep the white working class and lower middle class outer suburban seats along with seats like Bennelong, Tangney and Chisholm (which the redistribution has given the Libs a chance again).

@ Dan M
If there was anti-PRC sentiment among the Muslim community in Australia it would only be due to the Uyghur issue not due to issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong etc which are not as relevant or of an interest to Muslims. However, the Uyghur issue does not get much coverage in the Muslim world and pretty much no Muslim country has actually criticized China on that matter. We dont really massive pro-uyghur demonstrations in either the Muslim world or in diaspora. It is actually Western countries that speak on that issue. Ironically, Michael Danby speaks up on that issue but i dont think that has won him many fans in the Muslim community. See article below, in the Muslim Countries of South East Asia there is actually a preference for China over the US.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/4/4/majority-in-southeast-asia-would-choose-china-over-us-survey-suggests

@Dan M, looking at the massive swings against Libs in Chinese heavy polling booths in 2022 that might be due to a mix of correction votes (Libs made lots of inroads in the Chinese community in 2010s), disapproval of Scott Morrison China Policy in normally Chinese Lib votes and more 1.5 to 2nd generation registered to vote as most were born after 2000.

Based on the UK election Labour should be worried here.

Greens swing in most Islamic parts of London

East Ham: 11.2 (+9.6)
Bethnal Green and Stepney: 13.7 (+9.5)
Ilford South: 8.4 (+7)
Poplar & Limehouse: 13.9 (+10.5)
Stratford & Bow 17.3 (+13.6)
Ilford North: 3.8 (+2.5)

Labour swing in most Islamic parts of London
East Ham: 51.7 (-26.1)
Bethnal Green and Stepney: 34.1 (-39.4)
Ilford South 40.2 (-25.1)
Poplar & Limehouse 43.1 (-17.3)
Stratford & Bow 44.1 (-26.4)
Ilford North: 33.4 (-20.8)

@Marh I agree the NSW Liberals have done very well among Chinese voters (and ethnic voters more generally) holding most of the state seats with the highest Chinese populations (Epping, Oatley, Ryde, etc). The NSW Liberals have probably done better than any state branch of the Liberal Party has ever done in reaching out to not just Asian communities but ethnic communities in general. NSW Labor has very done well too but so has every other Labor branch. NSW is the only state where multicultural seats aren’t overwhelmingly held by Labor.

As for UK Labour and the Greens, it may be a concern now that we’ve seen it there and Wills already has strong Greens areas in the south in and around Brunswick. However, Liberal preferences will favour Labor so the Greens will have to finish considerably ahead of Labor, or they need to finish first or second to the Liberals.

The UK elections convinced me that Labor is in trouble here.

The UK elections saw huge swings away from Labour in seats with large working-class or middle-class Muslim populations. Pro-Palestine independents, Greens, Workers Party and Socialists polled really strongly in such areas. Jeremy Corbyn and (I think) Muslim, pro-Palestine independents won seats off Labour.

It may be more pronounced in Wills as the Muslim population is of Middle Eastern descent, less so South Asian, whereas in the UK it’s the opposite. Middle Eastern people are more likely to have some family connection and may have geopolitics closer to the front of mind. The UK has shown that voters of similar demographics can swing to the Greens. The main difference is that there’s compulsory voting here and not everyone votes based solely or mainly on Geopolitics.

@Votante same the UK election showed me that in some form but I’d need to see it tested out in Australia before I could make an actual judgement. The first taste of what we could get will come at the NSW council elections later this year.

Progressive Muslims will definitely swing to the Greens, and that could give them Wills since the south (Brunswick) already votes Greens but I’m convinced the more socially conservative ones will stick with Labor or maybe back an independent who supports Palestine and advocates for local issues and ethnic issues.

@Ben Raue can you please open the NSW local elections thread for comments?

Whoever Muslim Votes endorses in seats like this could do well but likely will fall short to the Greens but deliver decently strong preference flows to them. In the ultrasafe Labor seats like Calwell and Blaxland, the Muslim Votes candidate would likely do decently well but victory would require strong Lib preferences like with Dai Le in Fowler but if the Libs preference them on a HTV, they would get ripped to shreds by Sky After Dark even more so than the treatment they give John Pesutto.

Wills is gone, especially after what happened in the UK. Peter Khalil might as well announce his retirement now so that he’s not defending a lost seat. Cooper is also at risk especially post-redistribution but Ged Kearney at least appears to be very pro-Palestine in the same way Maria Vamvakinou has been.

Agree with the suggestion that any risks of the Muslim-dominant seats like Wills, Blaxland, Watson, McMahon etc will come from the Greens or the Muslim Votes group, the former is very likely to make in-roads (if not outright win) the inner-city seats like Wills and Cooper, whilst the latter will probably give preference flows to anyone other than the two majors which would see a swing against Labor, not enough for the likes of Jason Clare or Tony Burke to lose but enough to give them a scare. Can’t ever see the Liberals preferencing them given their unashamed pro-Israel stance.

Is it that Melbourne Muslims are more progressive and Sydney Muslims are more conservative or is it just part of the general fact that Sydney is more conservative than Melbourne?

The progressive Muslim vote seems to be less present in Sydney and the No vote for gay marriage was higher in Western Sydney than in any part of Melbourne.

When comparing the UK elections with the Australian elections, you do have to note that there’s voluntary voting in the UK. There was voter apathy and a low turnout. There were Labour supporters who didn’t show up to vote because they believed Labour had it in the bag. This meant that the Labour vote was suppressed and magnified the anti-Labour swing. In Australia, there’s compulsory voting. Most voters in Wills and Calwell aren’t Muslim.

Another factor in seats like Wills and Calwell is that there were swings away from Labor in 2022 yet they managed to hang on. Labor probably lost a lot of Muslim voters back then and if the status quo remains then Labor would retain in 2025.

Wills may well be at risk given the results in England, and the redistribution, but Cooper isn’t. Cooper doesn’t have a very large Muslim population at all.

@Votante I read a RedBridge analysis by Kos Samaras this year about Muslim voters and all the signs indicate that they had their baseball bats ready to strike Labor next year for Gaza, but there were 2 things:

1. They hate the Liberals even more for reasons we all know well.
2. They would keep voting Labor for as long as Maria Vamvakinou was the MP as they liked her and her activism.

Noting that No.2 won’t apply at the next election, it’s quite likely Calwell could return to being a less safe seat for Labor like it was when Latham was the leader. Even though it’s in the traditional working-class heartland of Melbourne, the anger of those voters from lockdowns and mandates last time round could well be replaced by Gaza and they might not return. With the recent events involving Senator Payman Muslim voters could very well snub Labor for what occurred. I still except Labor to retain it but it won’t be very safe, and that’s even if the preferred candidate Basem Abdo is the nominee.

In Wills it’s a different story. Muslim voters aside, you’ve got the Greenies vote down in Brunswick and Coburg all tied up and they won’t go back to Labor. It’s just a matter of how hard the Muslim vote in the north like Pascoe Vale, Fawkner etc swing the other direction. Liberals could be reduced to nothingness and Labor might suffer from the lack of preferences against the Greens and Ratnam who’s fairly high profile. Add to that Peter Khalil has been fairly silent on Gaza itself compared to Ged Kearney next door, all the conditions are right for Labor to lose unless if they do a complete 180 on Palestine and Gaza this year.

@Adam/Tommo9/Votante

Firstly, Cooper is only 4.2% and there actually more Eastern Orthodox Christians than Muslims and the Greek community is more influential than Muslim community. In Wills the danger is the Sydney Road corridor which combines Green inner city trendies in the south and Fawkner and Hadfield which are over 25% Muslim and strong for Labor if there is a swing here to Greens either directly or via preferences will put the seat in jeopardy what Peter Khalil needs is a good result in the Pascoe Vale Road corridor where you have middle class nuclear families and more Italians and Nepalese who will be neutral on this conflict. The other issue i have mentioned is Peter Khalil is very Hawkish on foreign policy and supports AUKUS so this will be weaponized against him.

While Willis does add Green heavy areas of Carlton North and Fitzroy North, I wonder it might ironically will save Labor due to correction votes from not having Adam Bandt as their MP?

@ Marh
Possibly however, i think correction would be smaller than if it went into Cooper as Ged Kearny probably appeals more to these demographics than Peter Khalil.

There will definitely be a swing against the Greens in the Melbourne part transferred to Wills. But the Greens still polled >45% in the senate in all the polling booths transferred, a lot of them >50%. They’ll still easily win the booths. Pretty much all the way up to Bell Street and even parts of Coburg are winnable for the Greens. The question remains how much of the northern working class vote the Greens can take off Labor.

Peter Khalil and Josh Burns have broken ranks on the LGBT census question. It seems both of them are trying to win over left wing Green voters not just rely on centrist voters.

@nimalan albo has backflipped on his backflip to allow the questions

also Jeremy Laxale from bennelong and Michelle Ananda-Rajah also spoke out against labor. coincidently all 4 mps will probably be out of job before the census is conducted

@ John
I agree Albo just changed the position but Peter Khalil and Josh Burns came out against the initial decision the reason i mention them is both of them are most vulnerable to the Greens. It seems Josh Burns is not soley relying on the Jewish community East of Chapel Street and Peter Khalil is trying to maybe get some votes south of Bell Street. It is more about which demographics they are targetting rather whether those questions should be on the Census.

Albo just backflipped on his backflip over the LGBT question in the next census. dude would have won us the gold medal in the olympics

@nimalan yes jeremy laxale in bennlong and rajah in higgins also spoke out as wel as a third person mention on the news this morning whose name i missed but it may have been khalil or burns either way the mps who are speaking out probably wont be around when the census is conducted. and if albo keeps going the way he is he may not even be the PM so dutton could just reverse it back

@ John
I am not saying whether Albo is right or wrong on the decision. It does not surprise me about Rajah in Higgins as there is a big Green vote suprises me about Jeremy Laxale as it is a seat voted against SSM. I am more interested in demographic analysis how it plays out. In Macnamara, Josh Burns may win if Jewish Liberal voters tactically vote for him to keep the Greens out.

@nimalan im sure those jewish voters are already voting for him and if he sheds many more votes to the greens he will probably be out of the 2pp and it may be a lib vs green contest.

howwever unlikely if the libs could get back to their 2016 results they could theoretically win since Labor -> Green preferences are weaker then Green -> Labor. also wouldnt those jewish voters be voting for the libs instead?