Wills – Australia 2022

@Political Nightwatchman last time she ran she pared the Labor margin back to about 4.5% so with a bigger profile now she is well placed to be competitive at least.

Having said that she was running against first-timer Peter Khalil and long-time incumbent Kelvin Thomson retired, and Khalil has the benefit of incumbency now for 3 terms and surely would’ve built up some level of personal vote now.

@PN yea wills will probably take green voting suburbs from melbourne specifically brunswick and i think this is one place they could win in 2025

i have always wondered how the Palestine issue may play out here especially in the working class north where there is a large Muslim community

The Greens must think there’s a very strong chance of winning this otherwise why would Ratnam, as party leader, give up her safe upper house seat to contest here. Definitely will have a bit of a swing particulary in the Muslim communities north of Bell St and she has the profile of state Greens leader.

Despite many speculating back in 2016 that Willis and Cooper were going to be Green Seats by 2019 or 2022, Labor margins still manage to hold at a even larger margin than 2016.

i think Cooper makes sense as Ged Kearney is very popular and progressive so fits the target demographic. David Feeney was not popular so dragged down the Labor vote. Wills surprises me a bit because Peter Khalil is not really that progressive i think he appeals more to the migrant North and gets some vote in the trendy South by campaign on renewable energy etc.

I’ve always thought that the “””””””progressive'””””””” credentials of any given ALP goon were massively overrated compared to simple incumbency, and certainly neither of these qualities have ever mattered less in the eyes of Muslim and Arab voters. Much like housing, Labor has hoped that token gestures, performative hand wringing and finger pointing will be enough to neutralise Gaza as a campaign issue, and without either a conclusion to the war or a very significant shift in Australia’s policy stance towards Israel at the very least, it simply won’t be. Having said that, Samantha Ratnam’s been a pretty mediocre party leader for the Vic Greens and I’m not sure she’s good enough to seal the deal for Wills.

I think the Gaza issue will shift allot of socially conservative middle-easterners to the Greens that traditionally either voted Labor or LNP. This could cause stress for Labor in these seats.

Traditionally these blocks (like in seats like Blaxland) have low greens vote. But I can see them shifting to the Greens in large numbers due to the war in Gaza.

@ Daniel T
I agree that Greens/Victorian Socialists (in Vic only) will likely benefit from Gaza in terms of primary vote. However, in seats where Greens will not make the 2CP like Werriwa or Calwell may actually drive a swing in 2PP terms to Labor.

One thing that would be in favour of Greens here is a recent change in the vic greens by laws. I believe there was a party wide vote on who in a party was able to vote in party preselections, the previous rule being you had to be a member for at least 2 years to be able to vote in preselection. The stuff I have heard was this rule was used by terfs in the vic greens to control preselection, which flared up into a backlash from most volunteers. This lead to the fiasco in Cooper 2019 I believe was the big election it effected. That rule was recently scrapped which might help re-energise the volunteer base, which the Greens NEED order to win. That boost will definitely help them here also if any of that info is off pls let me know but that’s what I have gathered.

The Greens underperforms in NSW which has actually the lowest Green Vote share out of any other state and territory. I wonder if it has to do with the reputation of NSW Greens and Significant Underperforming Green Vote in Sydney Inner city as I mentioned in the my previous comment on the Grayndler?

I don’t think the Palestine issue will be top of mind for inner-city, progressives who are neither Arab nor Muslim e.g. in Brunswick. It has more potential to be a vote changer amongst Arabs, especially Arab Muslims. They are more likely to know a Palestinian, or have had an opinion on Middle-Eastern geopolitics most of their lives. They may be swayed to vote Green or Vic Socialists as a protest vote.

@Nimalan, this might interest you.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/labor-mps-gaza-backlash-polling-anne-aly/103606272

@Marh, NSW had strong teal and community independent candidates in 2022. NSW also has long-time Labor MPs holding Sydney, Grayndler and Richmond – three seats that the Greens would be really competitive in when the sitting members retire. There are also pockets of strong Green areas such as the northern suburbs of Wollongong but the Greens overperformance is countered by strong Liberal/Labor areas. These factors don’t give the Greens something worth fighting for. Also, NSW is more culturally diverse and generally CALD communities aren’t so Green-friendly.

This one could be interesting, I doubt the redistribution will change the seat drastically and may even potentially add in more of Fitzroy North. Ratnam and the Greens must be optimistic otherwise she would have stayed where she is for transferred to the Vic lower house.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens went after Fraser, a seat that is highly multicultural and has areas with very strong votes for the Greens and Mulino is one of the most conservative Labor MPs

@Marh The Green vote spreads a lot more through metropolitan Melbourne and Brisbane, whereas in Sydney it’s very clustered and seats where they would generally have a decent vote were affected by the Teals.

Agree with other commenters – Greens think a high profile candidate (who is risking her political career), favourable redistributions, and Palestine will be enough.

I also think there’s a reasonably good chance the LNP will preference Greens over Labor to try force Labor into minority. That would make this a near certain Green gain, prevent awkward exclusion order issues in Macnamara, and make a bunch of other seats winnable or at least interesting (Cooper, Fraser, Canberra, Sydney – yes I think Plibersek is vulnerable. Grayndler too if PM moves to Barton. Cunningham and Newcastle likely ALP vs GRN contests with a real campaign and a lot more marginal. ).

FWIW I don’t think Ratnam has been a particularly effective state leader. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Victorian Greens kick into a higher gear with a new leader. I think Sarah Mansfield is the best of the bunch but Sandell will probably get the nod.

@john not necessarily because she only has to resign before a certain period and the time it can take to fill a vacancy she can easily fill her own vacancy if she fails. Though bandy would be looking over his shoulder if she wins

@ Votante,
Thanks for the article as you said i said i expect the Greens/Socialists to better in the absence of an independent. The article says that Muslim voters have a “greater disdain for the liberals” according to Redbridge research so i dont expect there to be a shift to the right among the Muslim community and probably will lead to lockdowns being forgotten.

I agree that this seat is vulnerable to the Greens sooner or later. This is perhaps the only Greens target seat with a large Arab/Muslim population. Coincidentally, suburbs in the north have large Arab/Muslim populations and are generally safe Labor. I can see why Ratnam is seeking to connect with such communities over the Palestine issue.

@John
“I also think there’s a reasonably good chance the LNP will preference Greens over Labor to try force Labor into minority”. It may be possible in a seat or two. It is fairly risky as there’s a lot of Liberal insiders who repudiate the Greens, given the Israel issue as well as the culture wars and the Liberals see the Greens as polar opposites. Many Jews have labelled the Greens as anti-semetic. A preference deal could cause a backlash in other seats. The teals/Labor could use this against the Liberals in Macnamara, Goldstein and Wentworth and maybe even Higgins.

@Nimalan, Vic Socialists and Socialist Alliance (if they are still around) are also competing for the same Palestine-concerned voters. They do have a stronger focus on workers’ rights and class warfare and can appeal better to the working class northern suburbs than Greens could. From memory, Vic Socialists came third on primaries in various electorates at the last state election. Either VS or SA could split the left-of-Labor votes and deny the Greens the seat.

The Greens will be largely targeting Labor held seats (Richmond and Macnamara) even if they don’t get Liberal preferences, but it’s in the LNP’s interest to make Labor vulnerable in a bunch more seats, and also spread the Greens thin (if they want to try take back Ryan or Brisbane). I don’t see the Liberal voters in the ALP vs Green seats being the kind that would cry foul at Green preferences either, and even in Higgins etc. easy enough to hide behind “put Labor last”.

Of course I don’t see any kind of formal preference deal happening – Greens will almost certainly preference Labor over the LNP in every seat (even if Bass ends up Bridget Archer vs an SDA ghoul).

Other John: I don’t think Ratnam is a threat to Bandt’s leadership whatsoever. Bandt’s most likely replacement would be a Queenslander, at the moment Waters or Chandler-Mather, but I think he’ll be hanging around for a while yet. In fact, this move may be Ratnam jumping before she’s pushed.

@John, I just don’t think there is any chance that the Liberals will preference the Greens. Liberals will never live it down if they effectively help add to the Greens seat tally, and all their criticism of the Greens (including full-throated antisemitism allegations) will ring hollow if they “gift” the Greens seats.

Regarding Ratnam as a candidate, yes she has a high profile but I am not really sure whether she is a good campaigner. She got a great result in 2016 Wills but that was with the benefit of the 20-year incumbent retiring and generally solid swings to the Greens in the inner north of Melbourne. Under her leadership of the Vic Greens, the state primary vote has hardly moved despite a massive collapse in the Labor primary vote in 2022.

@ (other) John, I don’t really see why Bandt would be any more worried about his leadership if Ratnam gets elected. Extremely unlikely a first-term MP would suddenly get the leadership; in fact her election may help insulate him because it strengthens his Victorian power base (in opposition to the Queensland bloc).

@ Votante
I agree with you that the Socialist parties are probably a better fit for the working class northern suburbs and they have already done well here. The issue is that i am not sure if either Socialist party going make the 2CP in any seat including Calwell. I think there is a good chance they will outpoll the Greens in Calwell and in many booths in Wills (They may even outpoll the Libs in the poorer booths). In the 2CP stage the Socialists do preference the Greens over Labor and the preference discipline is quite strong I also expect the Socialists to do well if they campaign around Dandenong, Brimbank etc as well and may come 3rd or even second in some booths. I also think the Greens and Socialists probably have some difference in the demographics that vote for them. I doubt the Socialists will do well in more Blue/Green areas like Macnamara, Higgins etc

The Greens are increasingly becoming the party of the inner city renter and young professionals, i.e. the exact opposite of the demographic that would vote UAP/One Nation. Socialists can do well among the working class voters who would appreciate their economically left wing and anti-elite message.

@GPPS – Liberal preferences already got a Green MP elected – Adam Bandt. They stopped preferencing Greens over Labor for a while but have started doing so again at some state elections (most notably QLD 2020 and Vic 2022). Agree Ratnam is not a good campaigner – I’m still annoyed at the Vic Greens not seizing the initiative to win a swag of seats in 2022 (the ones that are now ALP vs GRN marginals. But she is about as high profile a Green candidate as you can get in the area (former leader, former mayor) and that alone will shape the race. In 2022 (federal) it was clear the Greens weren’t targeting the seat.

@Nimalan/Votante – Vic Socialists will likely be a help to Greens as they were in 2022 (picking up the slack from a pretty limp Green campaign), and could help the Greens seal the deal with campaign activity in the more traditional working class parts of Wills/Cooper/Fraser. Greens should be able to stay ahead of them easily in those seats – even with quite a few seats where Greens didn’t try, VS only outpolled Greens in Thomastown and Greenvale. Still quite interested in what they can do in Calwell and the southeast.

I think it’s pretty damn unlikely Dutton recommends preferences to the Greens but he might consider it if the Qld state campaign sets the precedent. Certainly not worth counting on from the perspective of the Australian Greens overall campaign strategy

Regarding VIC Socialists and Socialist Alliance, I agree that they appeal more in northern, working class suburbs. Their support was probably somewhat driven by anti-Andrews and anti-lockdown protest voters at the federal and state elections in 2022. Dan Andrews has since retired and lockdowns, hopefully, are permanently over. VS might get support regarding the Palestine issue and economic issues in 2025.

I don’t think VS will outpoll the Greens in Wills overall but may do at some polling booths. If VS takes votes off the Greens and/or Labor-turned-VS voters put Labor ahead of the Greens then this would deny the Greens the seat.

@ John
The Victorian Socialists also outpolled the Greens in Kororoit as well. Broadmeadows is interesting as while the Greens outpolled the VS by 0.4% on primaries, Arie Huybregts who was listed as an independent but was actually running for the Socialist Alliance got 1% so a combined Socialist vote exceeded the Green vote. In St Albans the Greens outpolled VS by 0.2%, however, the VS ran here for the first time and it very possible that VS could outpoll the Greens there. One thing i notice when looking at booth results is that the VS results vary dramatically by booth while the Greens are more uniform. In Broadmeadows VS got 20% (even outpolled the Libs) in Upfield booth but only 3% in Middle class Oak Park.

Samantha Ratnam has had almost no cut through as Greens leader in Victoria. She occasionally gets a media gig but not nearly as often as she should. The Greens vote has stayed at the same level – down in 2018 and back up by the same amount in 2022. Yes, they have won two more lower house seats and recovered the upper house seats lost in 2018 through being shafted by Group voting. She would have a high profile in Wills but seeking preselection may be a ‘tap on the shoulder’ so they can seek a new, more effective leader.

I don’t think VS support was driven by anti-Andrews protest votes in the 2022 state election given that their preferences generally went to the Greens and Labor. In the Greens/Labor contests, the VS preferences went much more to Greens than Labor too. If VS run a strong campaign here it will only benefit the Greens.

Victorian Socialists have already announced a lead candidate for the Merri-bek Council–which overlaps almost exactly with Wills–in the upcoming October council elections, Louisa Bassini an inner-north community lawyer, unionist, and housing advocate. This being their first announcement and with their council campaigning launching next weekend in Brunswick, further demonstrates VS commitment to Wills to Labor’s detriment and the Greens’ gain.

@KT1
Fraser is definitely one to watch for the Greens, even if its chances at flipping in the next election are incredibly low and therefore the Greens probably won’t run a proper campaign (much stronger Victorians targets exist). However, the Victorian Socialists are likely to run a campaign in Fraser alongside a Wills campaign. Partly in order to increase their chances at the Victorian upper house seat Western Metropolitan, and partly to defend their only councilor, Jorge Jorquera (Maribyrnong Council) who also ran in the 2022 state election in the seat of Footscray (within Fraser) with 9.3%. At that same state election VS got 6.6% and 5.9% in St Albans and Laverton respectively, the other two state electorates which overlap Fraser. In the cases of Wills and Fraser the 2024 council elections will be important to watch as VS “will be fielding a large team of candidates across as many council areas as possible in October”, with an emphasis on taking “a stand against the genocide in Gaza”.

If the Greens manage to win Footscray in 2026 ALP 54.2% vs GRN 45.8% (13.9% 2PP swing mainly thanks to VS), then their chances in Fraser improve; although looking back to Wills the Greens won Brunswick in 2018 and are yet to win federally. Realistically for the Greens to have a chance in 2025/2028 they would need the Labor vote to fall behind the Liberal, which to me seems like a stretch considering the continued failures of the Victorian Liberals. Additionally the Greens can’t just rely on VS to campaign for them in working-class outer-suburbs, as @Vontante brought up not all Labor->VS preferences will flow Greens (however, the 3CP flow from VS in Fraser 2022 was ALP(18%)/LIB(9%)/GRN(73%) and 2PP flow in Wills 2022 was ALP(20%)/GRN(80%). Right now the message I’ve been seeing on Twitter from VS activists has been very much “teach Labor a lesson” over inaction on Gaza, with outright celebration of Samantha Ratnam’s candidacy announcement — all this seems to indicate that they will campaign explicitly on preferencing the Greens above Labor.

Samantha Ratnam has won preselection and is now officially the Greens candidate for Wills, a rematch of the 2016 election.

I would hope Victorian Greens have learned from their 2022 surprise near gains not to miss opportunities like Fraser, but they may depend on VS to wake them up.

Its not clear when Ratnam is resigning from the Victorian upper house but it will have to be before nominations close. I don’t think it’s a good look for a party leader ostensibly for the whole state to be explicitly focused on winning one seat at a different tier of government – she’ll seem distracted.

Samantha Ratnam has released their ad for Wills. There is clear references to Palestine

Wills may be a better target than Macnamara depending on the redistribution.

@John

“I would hope Victorian Greens have learned from their 2022 surprise near gains not to miss opportunities like Fraser, but they may depend on VS to wake them up.”

Are you referring to Pascoe Vale, Preston, and Footscray?

I’m very dubious about the implication that in general the Greens casting a wider net in terms of target seats would see them win more seats. Afterall, in that same election they narrowly failed to regain Northcote, who’s to say the conterfactual where they actually put *less* resourcing into Pascoe Vale, Preston, and Footscray wouldn’t have seen the Greens actually *gain* a seat?

Targeting everywhere is the same thing as targeting nowhere.

VS have a completely different goals in campaigning. They are not a party competing for lower house victories, they’re mostly at the stage of trying to show signs of growth literally anywhere to stake their legitimacy as a movement on and the theoretical chance of winning upper house seats with a spread out vote. The Greens would be very silly to put more resourcing into the seats VS tries to run up their numbers in because it would necessarily mean taking resources out of the Green’s actual winnable seats!

Do people really think a conflict on the otherside of the world that has nothing to do with Australia or the everyday lives of people in Australia will change people’s votes? Especially when Labor is seemingly taking a nuanced approach and moving further away from Israel.

@Adam Yes. Not more than a couple of % on its own, but importantly it will galvanize a lot of volunteers for the Greens and for Victorian Socialists

@Adam For the 900,000 Muslims and Jews in Australia it’s certainly front of mind.

I wrote previously that the Israel/Gaza issue wouldn’t be at front of mind for the average inner-city, progressive.

It is for Arab Muslims and Jews as a large proportion of them know of someone who live over there and many of them could be migrants themselves from Israel or the Levant. What I believe is an overlooked election issue is Islamophobia and anti-Semitism, both of which have rapidly increased since the Hamas attacks of October 2023.

@Votante I believe it is definitely front of mind for the inner city progressives. Most would already be voting green anyways though

@A A, I agree that they wouldn’t be Labor/Liberal votes to begin with. I was meant to say that it isn’t a vote-changing issue for inner-city progressives as it would be for Arab/Muslims.

Well the majority of Australians support the current position (supporting Israel while calling for peace) but it’s probably more 50-50 among Muslims with a lot wanting Australia to stay out while others support Palestine and others support Israel (of course I don’t have any reliable stats to back that up though). However, one thing to note is that a Muslim who votes for the Greens is a very progressive one. That Muslim would be pro-LGBT, pro-abortion, pro-euthanasia and pro-affirmative action (all of which are things that Hamas is adamantly against).

I think people here should be very wary of speaking for a minority group like Muslim Australians, unless you are one of them, or you’ve seen polling of their views from a credible pollster. There’s been a long history in Australia of people who are not from a minority group erroneously assuming how the people in that group think, which has led to misunderstandings and deteriorating relations between various minorities and the majority.

@Wilson yes and I apologise if I caused any offence, that’s just my observation. But in saying that none of my friends are Muslim but some are ethnic. I myself have mixed European and Lebanese Catholic heritage going way back but I’m non-religious. Growing up in a rural town people were classed as either “white (European), black (Aboriginal), Asian (Chinese) or Indian”.

I can’t speak for most groups really except people where I grew up and where I’ve lived before.

In saying that, however, it seems weird to me because in Sydney the seats of Chifley and Blaxland which have high Muslim populations wouldn’t ever vote Greens. They’re safe Labor seats in the working-class suburbs of Western Sydney.

*another working-class safe Labor seat in Western Sydney with a high Muslim population that I forgot to mention is of course Watson

I would say that the idea that a Muslim would only vote for the Greens if they were pro-LGBT, pro-abortion, pro-euthanasia and pro-affirmative action is a very big assumption to make. That might be the case for Muslim Greens politicians like Mehreen Faruqi, but simply voting for a party doesn’t mean you agree with all aspects of their worldview. It’s as absurd as saying every single Muslim who has voted for Labor is pro-union and pro-Indigenous voice to Parliament. Is there really not a single Muslim in Australia who might vote for the Greens because they’re the only party with a national profile that is advocating for the rights and wellbeing of Palestinians as a group?

The other danger here is that if you end up with a single issue that starts to dominate the campaign but it is one that a majority of voters don’t care about, or at least is a long way down their list of priorities, then someone else who is more focussed on the broader electorate can win. Not saying it will happen, but I can see an Israel focussed campaign leaving lots of space for a centrist independent or even the Libs to come along and cause an upset.

@ Nether Portal
Further to Wilson’s point. I think Social issues like SSM are sometimes over-stated. There has been some talk and i mentioned this in the Bruce thread whether communities such as Muslims could shift to the right as part of a realignment, as we discussed in the Bellarine some in the right believe that working class ethnic communities could be targeted. I have always skeptical as there is probably only a few areas of commonality. When people live as a minority in society there are a lot of things people just accept even if they dont like it. For example, many Muslims probably feel that pork, alcohol, gambling, pornography and strip clubs violate their religion but voting for the right will not change that. Many Hindus will feel the same about Beef but voting for the Liberals/Labor will not change that. Abortion is not really fault line in Australia even Susan Ley is Pro-Choice, parties generally avoid this topic and prefer the status quo.

Although MPs in a lot of the working class western Sydney areas with high muslim populations (Tony Burke, Jihad Dib) are vocal supporters of Palestine. So the personal vote could be there.

@Wilson that point is valid. Areas like Blaxland and Watson, which have high muslim populations, have very high support for Labor, but also had very low support of same sex marriage in 2017. So there could be a large pro-Palestine protest vote to parties like The Greens, even if voters don’t agree with their policy base. Although these areas would also be vulnerable to emergence of Dai Le style independents who are firmly pro Palestine.

@MLV
I think it is very unlikely that a Libs can win Wills i would say it is close to impossible and cause an upset it maybe among their weakest seats in the nation. There is only some pockets such as Oak Park/Pascoe Vale (middle class suburbs where there is even a decent Liberal vote), these areas have more Italians and less Muslims but if even if those booths voted Lib not enough to remotely put Wills under threat of moving rightwards.