Senate – Western Australia – Australia 2022

The Senate is set up for stability. We elect six people on a quota that’s one-seventh of the vote.

Three-sevenths is 43%, so you need a VERY one-sided result to get a “4-2”.

Labor also went backwards on primary vote, and recorded one of their worst ever primaries, and it hasn’t translated into Senate losses for them. In fact they might gain a seat despite losing votes.

If the majors primary went backwards then why isn’t it translating into a larger senate crossbench?

The Greens won three extra seats, plus Pocock and JLN. That’s five extra seats. It appears likely that Hanson will hold her seat, and the two ex-CA seats lost their seats. So that’s a net increase of three crossbenchers.

Pleased to see another win for Diversity with Fatima Payman regardless of political party. Someone young and the first of a refugee background to be elected to Senate following Dai Le in the HOR. As someone of an ethnic minority background myself this is important to me.

Having listened to the full speech by fatima Payman and all Labor Senators voting for Simon Birmingham’s motion to condemn the phrase she used in regards to Israel. I think she has made her mind to leave the Labor Party.

By the sounds of it and from what I’m hearing, she wants to be pushed out, if that doesn’t happen she may quit and go Independent anyways.

@ Patreon
I doubt she will be kicked out of the ALP, this may alienate Muslims voters further. Josh Burns while condemning that phrase described her as a friend. There is no doubt the Libs will attack the Labor party on this but we are already seeing that the Bipartisanship on Israel no longer hold. It might be the case that that the Labor party has already made a strategic calculation to sacrifice Higgins and Macnamara to hold Calwell, Wills, Blaxland, Werriwa, Bruce, Blaxland, Watson etc instead. Whilst the Libs may have also made a calculation to sacrifice targetting Muslim voters on share social conservatism on LGBT and focus on Higgins, Goldstein, Wentworth etc

Of course she was going to support Gaza of obvious reasons. But she made a fool of herself saying it publicly and costing herself another term in the senate.

She could join the Greens, Mehreen Faruqi and Sarah-Hanson Young will welcome her in open arms.

I am personally getting sick and tired of these protests here in Melbourne.

@ Daniel T
I am not saying whether she was morally right or wrong in her comments as i want to focus on demographic analysis than encouraging partisan cheer leading. However, i think this issue is very much a demographic question on what seats each of the major parties see their future is. Prior to October 7 it was often said these outer suburban seats which have a lot of Muslims are the Liberal parties future they voted strongly against SSM while areas that had more Jewish residents were wealthier more Tealish, better educated etc Sky News attacked those residents as woke elite, latter sippers etc. However, no Sky News talks about Fatima Payman being “imported” and that multiculturalism has failed. This has thrown a spanner in the works for both parties for this reason. Dutton is now better received in Dover Heights where Turnbull was once the MP than in Meadow Heights which had the biggest Anti-Labor swing in 2022 Federal and state elections.

Payman was third on the 2022 Labor ticket and only got elected because of the McGowan effect. While the two Senators ahead of her on the ticket are both ageing and might retire at the next election, I’m skeptical as to whether Payman has the necessary union and factional connections to move further up the ticket. If that’s the case, then she’s unlikely to get re-elected in 2022, and being outspoken or leaving the Labor Party would have little negative consequence for her in that respect.

She’d probably be an independent rather than join the Greens though, as if she did the latter, she’d then be beholden to a party philosophy once again (though the Greens are a lot less rigid on that than Labor are). Her re-election chances wouldn’t increase anyway in that scenario, as the Greens are not going to put her above Jordon Steele-John on their ticket and they’re not going to win two WA seats at a half-Senate election.

But I’m glad she’s speaking her mind on an important issue to her, just as I’m glad protesters are doing, no matter how great a tragedy that is for people whose approval isn’t required.

@ Wilson
i was thinking that Fatima Payman may move up the ticket for 2028 and be the lead candidate for the left faction as Sue Lines is ageing like you said and may not run in 2028. I agree Labor will not win 3 senate seats in normal circumstances.

It wasn’t the smartest of comments from Payman and probably wasn’t well received by the Labor leadership.
She is unlikely to win reelection, unless she is put higher on the ticket next time and I highly doubt she would be expelled from the ALP caucus due to the message that would send to voters in Calwell, Wills, Watson, Blaxland etc.

She is still very young and considering the impending redistribution she may well attempt to transfer to the lower house, however I would anticipate that would be unlikely given the recent comments. Either that or end up in state politics.

sh will lose her spot in 2028 as labor only usually get 2 senate spos in wa but got lucky with the circumstances of 2022

@ John
I agree that the Labor usually only gets 2 senate stop but what happens if they gets pres elected for the top 2 especially if Sue Lines retires that election (2028)?

@nimalan shes damaged goods now no way not in wa anyway.

@Nimalan, i don’t think the ALP wants to get rid of her, however i think she has made her mind to leave the ALP and probably prefers the ALP push her out rather voluntary resign from the party.

Payman showed a lot of bravery in crossing the floor on the vote to recognise Palestine as a state, because it will probably get her kicked out of the Labor Party now.

There is a possibility that Labor choose to just reprimand her though, because expelling her over this would be a horrible PR move when it comes to voters who are pro-Palestinian, especially Muslims, who have long been a solidly Labor-voting community.

If she is expelled, as I stated in May, I expect her to sit as an independent rather than join the Greens or any other party.

@ Wilson agree if she is expelled it will be weaponised against Labor in a seat like Wills.

Don’t think she will be promoted on the ticket anytime soon after today, assuming she doesn’t get expelled.

It’s time for the anti-semitic prick to be booted from the Labor party. As long as she is there Labor will have problems with Jewish voters in future elections.

@Daniel T The only reason she won’t be expelled is because it would make Albo “look bad”. What a fucking joke.

She needs to go. Regardless of whether you support Israel, Palestine, both of nobody, there isn’t a genocide or apartheid going on in Palestine. Israel is not committing genocide or apartheid. Payman and the Greens have supported these radical views and it’s absolutely ridiculous. They’ve still refused to condemn Hamas or antisemitism. What a fucking joke, as SCart said. Even Pauline Hanson who some lefties think is “racist” (I don’t hold her views or vote for her but I don’t think she’s racist or discriminatory against anyone) condemned Fraser Anning for being a racist piece of shit.

You can bet full well this will be a Coalition attack line in the future, and Albo will simply just deflect and try and say “erm ackshually this is Dutton’s fault!”

I guarantee she’ll lose her seat next time. She’ll say it’s Islamophobia but it’s not, it’s just she’s a bad Senator and is already facing expulsion from Labor after less than one term!

Though in saying that, Labor’s position on members crossing the floor on motions where Labor has an official policy (i.e Labor MPs can’t do it so that’s why no incumbent Labor MPs opposed the Voice yet I’d say about half of Labor voters did, if not more), is stupid. The Coalition is right in allowing its elected representatives to vote however they want on whatever they want as long as it isn’t stupid or against the core principles of the Liberal and National Parties.

@Nether Portal – I couldn’t agree with you more. The fact how the Greens ‘champion social justice’, yet then proceed to have an MP (Jenny Leong), and a candidate (Peltherre Chris Tomlins), make anti-semitic crap on social media, shows plain hypocrisy. They need to actually condemn this war, and especially Hamas and anti-semitism, yet of course they won’t as they could lose their precious student votes. What a waste of a party.

@Nether Portal Tbh I think the Coalition should have allowed a complete conscience vote on the Voice (and I say that as someone who voted no).

@James The shit that Jenny Leong was saying wasn’t just anti-Semitic. The “tentacles” trope has its origins in literal Nazi propaganda (for legal reasons, I am not calling Jenny Leong a Nazi).

If Payman or the Greens are antisemitic, then most of you commenting today are anti-Arab racists, using the exact same logic.

@SCart – I was unaware of the true meaning of that post. Just heard on the news that it was ‘anti-semitic’. Thank you for clarifying.

Hoping Senator Payman won’t be kicked out of the party, and it would be great if Labor allowed their MPs more freedom to vote against the party. Challenging the powers that be and forcing them into an unpleasant position that may make them reconsider party positions can only be a good thing for the party.

@Nether Portal, Coalition MPs have previously described Israel’s conduct as apartheid. This shouldn’t really be controversial. In 2021, then-Nationals MP for Flynn Ken O’Dowd said: “The core of the problem is that Palestinians do not live in freedom and dignity. To live under apartheid-type rule is inexcusable.” Mark Coulton, the Nationals MP for Parkes, said in 2021 that “I think we have a level of apartheid, with a suppressed people, and the West Bank has been cut up to such an extent that I don’t know how that (a two-state solution) would work.”

So you really don’t have to be a radical leftist to see that Israel’s conduct constitutes apartheid.

@np her election was an anomaly anyway labor only got 3 senators in wa because of the inflated mcgowan covid ani Morrison vote. She’d lose her seat regardless in 2028

@scart the policy of no was only binding to the cabinet. It was so a united front could be formed.

@np she won’t they’ll put someone on who supports the party position. And doesn’t draw any unwanted attention she will probably et 3rd spot as a way of saving face at best.

@patreon thats why they won’t expel her. The same reason NSW libs wont ex0el Turnbull or kean because that’s what they want them to do

@John but it would have made them look more neutral, more progressive and thus better (if only slightly) in the teal seats. If the Liberals had Frydenbuerg or even ScoMo as their leader, it would have been neutral, just like Howard with the republic in 1999, or Turnbull with gay marriage in 2017.

@scart dutton is gambling on the facts that he can’t out teal the teals in the short term and is willing to sactifice them in the short in return for gains in outer surburban working class seats off labor. And i think the gamble will pay off. You see if he takes enough seats off labor in 2025 labor will be forced intoinority far enough he will have to go into govt withthe labor leaningteals thus exposong them to the voters where their loyalties lie. Then next time will come and clean sweep them.

@Scart I agree even though I too voted No.

@Wilson I have Lebanese heritage, so it’s not possible for me to be racist to Arabs.

What Jenny Leong said is definitely antisemitic. Is she a Nazi? No, because that’s on the other side of the political spectrum and involves other political views.

Now Richard Marles is going about some “SoCiAl CoHeSiOn” bullshit as to why Payman isn’t being kicked out. Yeah newsflash idiot, people who say “from the river to the sea” ARE damaging to social cohesion, not the people who want them kicked out.

Nether Portal, do you seriously think having Lebanese ancestry gives you immunity from anti-Arab racism? That’s a pretty hilarious invocation of pure identity politics. It is entirely possible for someone of Lebanese ancestry to be racist towards Arabs. Are you connected in any way to Lebanese culture or the Lebanese Australian community? If so, look up the definition of Uncle Tom. If not, then you and your family have successfully assimilated into the White Australian community, and you’re as capable of holding prejudicial or superior attitudes as any other White Australian person.

Glad nothing will happen to her…. common-sense has prevailed

Fatima Payman will not be expelled but suspended from all caucus meetings for this sitting of parliament.

@Wilson I am not promoting identity politics and I would ask you not to make accusations of me being an “Uncle Tom”.

My family is still quite connected to Lebanese culture, for example we cook and bake traditional Lebanese dishes. I also have family from Europe but they don’t practise their culture much as a lot of it was never really known (mostly because of WWII).

My family were indeed Catholics though so it’s different to Muslims, and I was born in Brisbane and grew up in regional NSW with my connections to Sydney mostly being to the northern and northwestern parts as opposed to places like Bankstown with large Lebanese communities.

Anyway.

@Nimalan so she’s now considered an Independent Labor Senator (like how Moira Deeming used to be an Independent Liberal MLC in Victoria or how Mark Turner used to be an Independent Labor MLA in the Territory)?

Not sure how it is common sense to refuse to condemn Hamas. I agree with everything NP said. Calling her out does not make you Anti-Arab. It is actually common sense.

An organization that is deemed by the USA and most UN countries as a terrorist group should be condemned at all costs regardless of what else is happening. One wrong does not make a right. I would also ask people who agree with her to name a single war in the history of the world that has not had civilian casualties (doesn’t make it right) I am just stating fact.

She may stay in Labor for reasons others have stated. Labor doesn’t want to lose a member on the floor of the senate, nor do they want to alienate the Pro-Palestine people from going to the Greens. But at the end of the day I would much prefer a Labor party that sticks to principle and call out Hamas for what it is, rather than caring about losing voters to the Greens. Because they aren’t going to the Coalition.

As NP said. She is out in 2028 regardless. Labor could still do well in 2025 in WA but not in 2028, 2028 will be after 6 years of Labor government and if they win in 2028 it will be very close (much like Hawkes 1990 win) or 2010 with another hung parliament.

@daniel T labor will only get 2 in 2025. the 2022 vote was inflated and it will return to 3-2-1 to the libs

John I didn’t say that wouldn’t be the case (although the Libs may not necessarily get 3) could be similar to QLD where it is 2-2 and then the other 2 go to minor parties) I seriously wouldn’t rule out One Nation. Just watch.

Labor will still win the TPP in WA. But will lose a seat or 2 and will definitely not win 3 senate seats. Liberals could win 3 but not guaranteed and could be 2-2-1-1

Coalition is very unlikely to pull 2013-2019 numbers in WA. I would say it will look allot like 1998 (although Beazley’s Labor barely lost the TPP in WA by a fraction of a percentage point)

And to add to it further, Why do you think Ben Small is moving to the lower house? Because the Libs are no longer guaranteed a 3rd seat anymore, and he learned that in 2022.

If the Libs were THAT confident about winning the 3rd seat, wouldn’t they have put him on the ticket in 2025?

They won’t be denied the 3rd seat by Labor as I said before, but rather by a minor party (most likely One Nation)

Also why don’t the coalition run joint senate tickets here? Libs don’t represent rural areas as well as the Nats do. So it is strange you have Liberals from the regions in WA. Something completely opposite of the Eastern states.

@daniel t one nation is not strong enough in wa. they only get one in qld because of PH and her personal vote and the fact ONP are quite strong there. i guarantee 3 libs and i think libs will win the 2pp but narrowly. libs to win Tangey, Bulllwinkle and Pearce. Swan, Cowan and Hasluck to be competitive and bring Burt and Perth back to marginal. Labor to only safely retain Fremantle and Brand

@daniel t because he wants to be in lower house? the lower house is better why do you think KK, Barnaby Joyce and others have moved? the libs and nationals arent in a coalition in wa and are rivals.

also wa already has/had 3 senators at the time as well so there wasnt any positions available

@John One Nation had three Upper House seats in WA from 2017 until 2021 (though to be fair I think two of them quit the party before they lost their seats).