Warringah – Australia 2022

I point Australian politics are different from America that that LNP Coalition equivalent placing Democrats and Republicans in the same party.

Nimalan is mostly correct with this analysis, especially with regards to Mosman and Manly, when comparing to Warringah. I think these results confirm once and for all that the idea of pushing a capital-C conservative in a seat like Warringah won’t work anymore for the Liberal Party and that we are seeing the return of the small-l liberal leading the discussion. This will be a challenge for the party to adjust at a Federal Level, where they have run with a Capital-C Conservative leadership without any of the pragmatism (Think about Howard Federally and Perrottet at the NSW Level).

What didn’t help the Teal Campaign was the behaviour of Climate 200. After discussions with people I know have been helping with the Teal Campaign, many of them are now blaming the intervention of Simon Holmes A Court with them not being able to win a single seat in the Northern Corridor. I’ve also heard stories (very strong source) that SHaC exclusively on the Northern Beaches for the entire week of the election. The people simply switched off and the feedback was that the movement was becoming cringe. That infamous pamphlet run was the turning points.

With Wakehurst, it was a different story. Regan distanced himself very early from the Teals and Climate 200. His target wasn’t necessarily Dee Why (which had always been the weakest point for the Liberal Party in Wakehurst) but Cromer, which is where he had his biggest swings to him, above where he would have normally expected to poll at a council election.

If NSW is to lose a seat – a high likelihood – then either Warringah or North Sydney – most likely the former will need to get the chop. All of the North Shore seats are well under quota. Mackellar will remain because of its geography but needs to expand and will push Warringah further south. Pushing Mackellar south means Warringah goes west and needs so many votes it will take over central North Sydney – i.e. North Sydney without North Sydney. It would make more sense to have Bradfield take over all of Belrose and Frenchs Forest – as it has been before. Abolish Warringah and have North Sydney go from Greenwich to Manly. The projections may make Warringah even more prone to abolition.

I have mentioned before on another thread that there’s support and respect for more moderate Liberals in affluent, socially progressive seats and this showed through when the 2PP result in Warringah in 2019 was much wider than in 2022 in North Sydney, Mackeller and Wentworth. Add to that, there was a perfect storm in 2019. Zali Steggall was an Olympian with strong name recognition before winning in 2019, Tony Abbott was outspoken and influential in politics and there was a concerted on-the-ground effort to remove Tony Abbott.

The NSW election results weren’t as strong for the teals. The campaign was uncoordinated. Perrottet in 2023 wasn’t as unpopular as Morrison in 2022 and this helped buoy the Liberal vote around here.

@Nimalan, at the federal level, I’d say the Liberal vote correlates with age/density when there’s a teal running. The areas most loyal to the Liberals are either low-density and/or have a high median age e.g. harbourside suburbs in Wentworth, Hunters Hill and Woolwich. The Avalon peninsula is an exception. Newport to Palm Beach are low-density, older and wealthier than most of the Northern Beaches, yet they were strong teal voters.

@ Votante, Totally agree with you regarding density, age and Teal vote we can see this pattern in Kooyong/Goldstein as well. Warringah however, is an exception as on two occasions it at hard right candidates. Mosman and Harbourside Northern Beaches (Clontarf, Seaforth, Fairlight and Balgowlah) should have been sapphire blue but instead turned Teal as they are low density/high median age and very wealthy. The reason i cite Manly village is that it is quite high density, young and very irreligious with a majority of the people claiming no religion. The far right of the party cite this has evidence the electorate is leaving them rather than the other way around. Yet these people at a state level were content for voting for a Premier who was pragmatic yet personally conservative. If Mike Baird was still the MP then i dont believe his religion would have hurt him here and would have still held the seat. I do feel densely populated areas of Liberal Heartland such as McMahons Point, Manly, Milsons Point, Glenferrie , Domain part of South Yarra, is still different to areas like Newtown, Fitzroy, West End etc. For example, in Hawthorn despite a sitting Labor member in 2022 the Teal outpolled Labor in all booths along Glenferrie Road.

@Nimalan. Good points about the demographics and the comparison between state and federal Liberals.

The swing to Zali Steggall at the 2022 election can’t be linked to just her personal popularity or the loss of Abbott’s personal vote or Katherine Deves. There was a group who voted for Abbott, as they were Scomo fans in 2019 but turned on Scomo in 2022 and switched to other candidates (like in most other electorates), hence the PV swing to Labor/Greens as well as Zali.

There’s a difference between Liberal heartlands like Manly and Greens strongholds like Newtown, Fitzroy, West End etc. Greens strongholds tend to be those with a much younger demographic and larger student population and are much closer to big inner-city universities. Younger people are more focused on young person issues like renting, universities, student debt, public services and social issues.

The teal movement in Manly and elsewhere filled a void by offering an alternative that was economically liberal and business-focused but yet socially progressive and supported climate change action. There’s growing divergence in both sides on environmental and social issues, whereas traditionally, it was mainly economic issues. Voters living in teal electorates tend to be older and wealthier working professionals. The teal candidates were “like them” in many ways e.g. highly-educated, professional backgrounds. As Julie Bishop said, the teals are “Liberal women who aren’t in the Liberal Party”.

Despite what the hard right of the Libs say, the teals aren’t some left-wing force but rather Libs who think the Liberal Party has become a combination of the UAP and One Nation.

Agree Dan, many teals are ‘moderate’ liberals who feel the current party has abandoned them. Essentially, these members are fiscally conservative but socially progressive, and can be likened to some Republicans in the US who have defected (some examples include ex Rhode Island Senator and Governor Lincoln Chafee who became a Democrat and also Liz Cheney)

Yoh An Chaffee is actually a Libertarian now. And Cheney is still a Republican. Even those such as Cheney would still be more to the right of the Liberal party because of her views on social issues. It’s a long way from Australian politics.

If you want a comparison, I would say the teals are closer to the UK Liberal Democrats (many who are economically liberal/conservative) but are progressive on many other causes. I would also liken some of them to moderate prime ministers such as John Major, Tony Blair and David Cameron.

Australia unfortunately is a more conservative country than where I’m originally from, the UK (I hail from a working class town in the north which happens to be the exact same town Antony Green was born in)

But these electorates (the traditional liberal seats) don’t come anywhere near close as the demographics as republican/conservative areas on the U.S. in fact many of these areas are held strongly by democrats their equivalents in the United States.

Australian politics seems to be undergoing a radical shift, Union workers and union prevalent areas seem to be trending away from Labor and some of them go to the Greens as well as the coalition. But some richer city dwellers seem to be more open to voting Labor or Labor-leaning independents.

The coalition need to follow the lead of the UK conservative party and the German CDU (Angela Merkel type conservatism) if it wants to stay the natural governing party of Australia.

Labor needs to stay towards the centre and hold the centre mantle and not drift to the left otherwise you get a repeat 2013 which the coalition only won due to Labors unpopularity rather than what Peda Credlin thinks and boasts “Tony Abbott was popular” which is an outrageous lie. Abbott often had negative approvals as opposition leader and trailed Gillard and Rudd and preferred PM.

Nothing to see here under Dutton, Steggall will be reelected in a landslide.

Agree daniel, Australia is structured very similar to the UK in having most of its population in major cities rather than small backwater towns as is case for the US.

Therefore, for the conservatives to try and replicate the campaign style of the US republican party will fail.

Even republicans in US didn’t perform as well as they expected in the recent midterm against a fairly unpopular president, partly because they selected too many hard right candidates in urban dominated areas that ended up being major flops.

Part of the Liberal Party problem is that they seem to have no economic ‘ideas’ – the last one they had was abolishing the carbon tax and that was purely negative. They have not had a leader since Howard who was interested in economic reform and no one in the current party seems to have taken on the mantle for anything beyond ‘cutting taxes’. They have always been intellectually strong on national defense and with people like Andrew Hastie and James Patterson around, that is unlikely to change. But without an economically rigorous thought leader, a vacuum has been created which various social conservative culture warriors and assorted right wing loop fruits have rushed to fill. The ideal model for the TEAL seats is someone who is a ‘dry’ economic thinker and socially ‘liberal’ – and both Allegra Spender and Kate Chaney seem to be filling that role.

I should have added, if someone like Dominic Perrottet went to Canberra, he could fill that economic void.

And one more thing ..
I wish Peta Credlin would put up or shut up – run for parliament and do the hard yards – or walk away and stop throwing grenades from the side line.

Agree redistributed, if Dominic Perrottet or even Mike Baird were to run for Federal Parliament and be successful, they could well offer ideas and a personality/style in the mould of former NSW premier John Fahey who served as Finance Minister under John Howard.

The “Tony Abbott is popular” narrative stems from 2013 when he won in a landslide. He wasn’t popular himself but Rudd/Gillard were worse. His honeymoon period lasted under 6 months and Labor/Shorten then started polling better. He has since been knifed by his party and lost his own seat. The political landscape has shifted over the ten years since, especially with a political realignment with wealthier voters more supportive of socially progressive causes and action on climate change.

The NSW Liberal Party has been better at balancing pragmatism with economic/social conservatism. Dominic Perrottet as a ‘man of faith’ maintained appeal better than Abbott/Morrison. Perrottet, Mike Baird or Matt Kean would not contemplate on running federally until the redistributions are finalised.

Electorates like Warringah are not religious. A religious fundamentalist party isn’t going to be the perfect party for voters, nor would a party that tries to emulate the Trump/Republican party and its fight on the culture wars and other non-economic issues.

I agree with Votante, areas such as Fitzroy, Newtown despite gentrification are still economically left wing with a lot of students etc and quite alternative. If you walk around Brunswick Street Fitzoy you will see posters calling for a Socialist Revolution etc not something you will see in Glenferrie road Hawthorn despite both roads having tram tracks running through it In areas such as Glenferrie, Camberwell Junction, South Yarra, Manly, Toowong etc many of these people are young professionals who are yet to purchase homes and move to the suburbs. Many would have grown in affluent suburbs, went to Private Schools and may work for Goldman Sachs. These are not people who are in anyway attracted to left-wing economic policy or Socialism. One economic issue however, is barriers to home ownership. I will come to that later. As you Yon An said in Australia the majority of people live in diverse cities which is different to the US where the electoral college gives greater weight to smaller less diverse rural states. I can understand why at a federal level it works to some extent because Queensland is an important electoral battleground and Queensland is the only state where a majority of the population lives outside the Capital city. It makes no sense at a state level in Victoria where the only area that a populist message would work is the La Trobe Valley which is not a battleground these days anyway. Finally, i agree with Redistributed the lack of economic differentiation with Labor makes the Liberals vulnerable to focus on culture wars instead. It is something Andrew Bragg also cited. The Howard years were characterized by economic reforms such as the GST, Future Fund, reform of the Waterfront, IR changes and solid economic management. This meant while the Doctors Wives may have been unhappy about the Pacific Solution, Iraq War, David Hicks and not ratifying Kyoto they stood by the Libs in fact Higgins, Brisbane, Curtin and Kooyong had the smallest swings to Rudd in 2007. The term of government between 2013-2022 saw virtually no economic reforms. The NSW Liberals avoided this because they had an excellent record of service delivery when building Westconnex, Northconnex, Sydney Metro North West, South West Rail Link, South East Light Rail, Western Sydney Airport etc so they had a reason to bind together and not get distracted. Some economic reforms the Libs should consider should include raising the GST rate, phasing out stamp duty. This would tie in nicely when i mentioned Young professionals facing barriers to home ownership. Tony Barry said this was something that the Libs have missed. He said “you cant be Conservative if you have have nothing to conserve”.

@Yoh An

Now that i read your comment, would Mike Baird be interested in Cook, and then being Federal Leader?

My thought is that as a Conservative but a sensible Conservative, he may a net-negative in Teal seats if he runs there, but a net-positive if he is Leader. I doubt his ability to win Warringah (esp. from outside) but I think he can campaign with a moderate candidate in that seat (while he runs elsewhere) and do okay. (Perrottet similar story but he should go Mitchell)

I also note his father Bruce was the member for Cook for several years – he moved from State Northcott (Pennant Hills-ish?) so that was a parachute too. Given the family connection, I doubt Mike Baird doing this will be that bad – certainly no worse than Keneally jumping from Scotland Island to Fowler!!!

Also, a former NSW Liberal Leader/Deputy will probably be the best leader for the Federals because the current lot have no clear alternatives to Dutton (who will be mashed come 2025). Any of O’Farrell, Baird, Berejilkian, Perrottet, Kean would do better than anyone in Federal right now!

@Votante
I do understand the next redistribution will be radical, but I think there are a decent amount of seats that will stay intact.
My prediction is that Warringah/Cook (Baird) (Both needs to expand but both are “Corner” seats) and Mitchell (Perrottet) won’t move enough to significantly alter the political landscape. I think the main changes will be in:
– Georges River/Canterbury-Bankstown, and some Hughes (I predict Hughes will take in Chipping Norton, Padstow, Panania, Milperra and Revesby)
– South-west Sydney, around Fowler, Werriwa, Macarthur and Hume
– Berowra and Bradfield due to knock-on from Warringah/Mackellar but if those 2 seats gets screwed up then Kean can run in Bennelong

Thoughtful insight redistributed, I think you are correct. The extent of actual economic thought in the Liberals at the moment is mostly derived from backbenchers like Andrew Bragg. It’s a shame that Angus Taylor hasn’t been more vocal or a ‘mover and shaker’ on the economic front like Dom Perrottet.

I think given the radical redistribution Stegall is the only teal that is gonna be considered a chance at being safe the rest will be worried

Most if not all the 7 teals will be relected.

@Mick Quinlivan
@Potatoes

All the Sydney Teal Seats are at or near the corner so the redistribution won’t affect these areas much. Bradfield may do something more radical though.

Wentworth has to expand to either Sydney or KFS so Spender is safe. Warringah has a big margin so no issues for Steggal either.

Scamps would be slightly scared if St Ives is added to Mackellar, which I think is likely. I doubt it will be enough to make her lose given she will have a sophomore surge though.

Tink is in a weird position because she has both 2pp/Libs and 3pp/Labor to worry about. I think she will be fine anyway but I reckon Labor and will make a messed up submission on this seat (based on them trying to make a Concord-Drummoyne-Balmain seat last time) though they will be more tame this time given they are against a Teal, not a Green.

@ Leon IMHO if Tony Abbott retired gracefully at the 2019 election and Mike Baird ran for Warringah he would have won the seat. However, retaining the seat at 2022 would have been difficult just like it was for pretty much all of the Liberal heartland seats. However, Mike Baird could have got at least 40% of the primary vote and won the booths in Mosman and the booths low density affluent booths in the Northern Beaches. The Libs would have easily won the notional TPP against the Labor maybe around 6% similar to Wentworth or Mackellar. If Mike Baird ran in 2022 for the first time i dont think he would have won the seat but may have actually had a small improvement in the primary vote and ironically recorded a notional swing to the Libs versus Labor against the state trend. While Mike Baird is a man of faith i think this could not have been seen as a negative in the Northern Beaches he may have portrayed himself as a “Compassionate Conservative” for example he was vocal to admit Syrian and Iraqi refugees and he his father had a similar reputation.

I am not sure where the love for Mike Baird has come from. While O’Farrell and Gladys left under something of a cloud, Baird left because he p*ssed so many people off there was no one left to fight his corner, some sympathetic sections of the press gallery aside. He also has the same kind of air that Turnbull had but worse, well off son of a former state/federal minister who walked out of office straight into banking. He also didn’t get the NAB CEO position he so dearly wanted/felt he deserved, and has since got a couple of ‘jobs for the boys’ positions. We have already had the left spending way too much time trying to rehabilitate Kristina Keneally’s reputation, we don’t need the right doing it for Baird.

Also, don’t underestimate how much of the support for ‘socialists’ comes from sons/daughters of the wealthy. Socialism/communism has almost always been about the ‘lesser aristocrats’ reclaiming their ‘rightful’ place in society from the capitalists.

But some of the comments here put into perspective the problems the Libs have, try to appeal to more culturally/religiously conservative outer suburban voters and they lose these heartland seats to the Teals. Protect these against the Teals and they lose the outer suburbs. This is why they are paralyzed on economic reform – same for Labor to some extent.

@ Mostly Labor voter
RE Mike Baird.
As a Premier, he is applauded for his economic reform in the long term leasing of the poles and wires a difficult decision but one that took courage that no labor government would do. He was Treasurer in a government that helped get NSW literally moving again with building NW rail link, SW rail link etc and Sydney light rail. The lease of the poles and wires enabled building of the Sydney Harbour Rail Tunnel and new stations in the CBD. Mike Baird won the outer suburbs in 2015 such as Camden, Penrith, Mulgoa etc they were even swings to the Libs in seats such as East Hills at that election. Out of all the seats which had sitting members lost in 2015 the only won that Libs would regret is Strathfield. Unlike many other Conservative leaders such as Abbott and Dutton he does not give the nasty image I do agree that Mike Baird made some mistakes in government such as lockout laws, greyhound racing and council mergers. However, the NSW liberals had a purpose which is why they did not get involved in culture wars. At 2022, the Tide was too much so Penrith, Camden, East Hills were lost. I would say that is in part because Chris Minns had better appeal to the outer suburbs that Albo from Marrickville did. The 2011-2012 was the longest period of Liberal Government in NSW history and has already left a legacy of state building.

Agree Nimalan, Mike Baird may have made some foolish moves like council mergers but overall, he had better sense of purpose and strategy with infrastructure development compared to the likes of Tony Abbott or Scott Morrison.

@nimalan tony abbott isnt a man who will capitulate its best to go down swinging. we had the same issue here in benambra at the vic state election. jacqui hawkins was already measuring out the curtains in bills office but bill didnt quit and go quietly he saw off the challenge and retained his seat. same with scomo in 2019 bill shorten was already boxing up his stuff to move into the lodge but the liberals didnt just pack up and go home.
@mostly labor voter he was still popular at the time though

@Nimalan, I don’t think flogging some assets to build others counts as some kind of economic reform. It seems that privatization was an issue at the last election, and certainly in my circles there was a lot of disquiet about Baird ‘Selling anything that moved’ during his tenure. Most of the infrastructure was needed, and it is true that at least some of the more iffy items, like light rail, are not really sheeted home to Baird. But while there is limited opportunities for reform at State level, he would have been getting advice around stamp duty/land tax, which at least Perrotet picked up and tried, albeit at a small scale.

@Potatoes, possibly, but I do think he worked hard on being ‘likable’, and there has been a very serious attempt at smoothing over all the controversies by his boosters in the press. This likability though is another reason I am suspect about his suitability as a reformer. Keating and Howard, and to some extent Gillard, didn’t care if they were liked, as long as they were respected. Baird seems to want to be liked, almost to the point of not being respected.

@ Mostly Labor voter
I would say Asset recycling in this case was necessary for State Economic Development. Even if it may not be technically economic reform in the like tax reform. Nevertheless, it was necessary to improve the productive capacity of the economy and allow Sydney to continue to grow and reap the benefits of economies of scale in contrast to Bob’s Carr approach of putting Sydney is full sign. The Achilles heal of the Carr years was his ability to build the infrastructure that Sydney desperately needed. Interestingly Carr first floated the idea of privatizing the electricity generation to allow for infrastructure investment but was prevented by the NSW Labor conference. If he was allowed to do that then history would have been very different. Morris Iemma also tried this in 2008 and this led to his downfall. I would argue that once Morris Iemma could not do this NSW Labor entered a downward spiral that it never recovered from. From then on as it lacked “purpose” of being in government and this led to all the scandals. This led to a drag for Federal Labor and the loss of Bennelong, Macquarie in 2010 could be blamed in part for state Labor. When Gillard offered to fund Epping to Parramatta rail link it backfired as it tied her to that government. Daniel Andrews also leased the Port of Melbourne in exchange for funding to remove level crossing and that has led to his success especiially in SE Melbourne in seats like Dandenong we did not see anti-Labor backlash that was seen in the Western Suburbs in 2022. Again like Yoh An said it gave purpose for Daniel Andrews and when a government has Purpose it succeeds as members of the government will play for the Team rather than playing their own games. This is what kept the NSW Coalition Government going as it was focused on delivery than fringe issues. I contrast to coalition government in Victoria between 2010-2014 which lacked purpose and there is little to show for that period in government. I would say that is a major challenge for the Victorian Liberals today as the dont have an idea on what to do so they just fight among each other rather offer a vision for Victoria. It makes them vulnerable to fringe issues. Finally, i agree with you regarding stamp duty/land tax it is something that i credit Perrotet for. In hindsight, it could have been approached earlier in the period of government i think the priority on the infrastructure backlog meant housing affordability did not get the attention it deserved. I do hope a future government revisits that.

@Nimalan – need to disagree. We still have a truck load of debt – just a bit less because the transmission assets were sold, and look now, we are all being screwed by having these monopoly companies in private hands.

And what for? The light rail to the south east is nothing more than a gloried bus service that was there – would have been much better to have a Metro out there. Every actual Metro built is not a Metro at all but a heavy rail line with metro style trains – simply so they can be privately operated.

And in your first comment, you credit Baird with the SW rail link – that was actually started by Labor in 2009.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_West_Rail_Link

Insider, I would say the metro services are similar to those overseas, with frequencies greater than the old suburban lines it replaced.

Even the regular Sydney suburban lines have better service than Brisbane rail lines

Re: Redistributions, I don’t think Warringah would get the chop. It may be renamed but will certainly expand geographically. Nearly all seats east of Parramatta are under-quota and so it makes more sense to abolish something inland. Based on boundaries alone, Zali Steggall appears safe as her seat is also surrounded by teal seats and there aren’t strong Liberal-voting areas on the outside suburbs. From memory, the Lower North Shore and Collaroy/Dee Why were strongly teal.

@Nimalan, I agree that Mike Baird or almost any Liberal other than Tony Abbott would’ve won Warringah in 2019. Without Tony Abbott, there wouldn’t have been a concerted Voices of Warringah campaign or Vote Tony Out campaign and Zali Steggall wouldn’t have run. The grassroots campaign was in reaction to his stances on climate change and to a lesser extent, social issues and on knifing Malcolm Turnbull. I agree that the Liberal MP in 2022 would then succumb to the teal wave just as Josh Frydenberg did.

@ Insider

I do feel metro/heavy rail for SE Sydney along the Anzac Road corridor would have been better but it is a more expensive option, Light rail is still a better option than busses it runs along the Median strip, has more capacity and which is why cities around the world including Canberra and building them as a better option than Buses along busy corridors. I do agree with Yoh An that the Sydney metro is an improvement in terms of service frequency, it has turn and up go service (no timetables), Platform Screen doors etc and has allowed for density done well around it is station. The reasons, i credit the NSW Liberals with SW Rail Link is that it was announced in 2005 when Bob Carr was premier only to be cancelled then re-announced in 2009 with work not actually starting until mid 2010 and not one centremetre of track was actually built at the time the Libs took government so i am not at all confident they would have the capacity to build it in full if we won the 2011 election. Just like Parramatta-Chatswood link was only half built and was double the cost. NSW Labor announced many things during the 16 year rule such as Strathfield-Hurstville rail link, NW rail link, Anzac line, Bondi Beach extention, Rozelle metro, Redfern to Chatswood line with a station at The Rocks. All of this amounted to nothing maybe NSW Labor would have built the SW Rail link up to Edmonson Park at best case.

Agree Nimalan, although the light rail to Randwick/Kingsford could also have worked as a bus rapid transit network similar to Brisbane by converting George Street and a cordoned off section of Anzac Parade into a dedicated bus corridor.

@ Yoh An, agree with you the Brisbane BRT is a good example. Sometimes i wonder if the Brisbane BRT will eventually be replaced by light rail or trackless tram etc. The Brisbane Metro maybe the first stage of that. In Vancouver their BRT called the B-Line has progressively been replaced by the SkyTrain on the same corridors and the BRT was just the first stage to test the waters for demand

Yes, the new Brisbane ‘metro’ is a hybrid of bus and tram, using articulated electric vehicles with more standing capacity similar to the carriages used for light rail.

@ Potatoes
I agree the Libs should not give up in the seat and gifting it to their political opponents and Tony Abbott may have felt not running maybe seen surrendering but i am thinking in terms of renewal maybe he could have groomed a successor to run in the seat in 2019 instead of him, his sister Christine may have actually worked well in the seat.

Selecting and committing to a project is the hard bit, Nimalan – not delivering it. That’s what Treasurers and Premiers do – select the best projects to shape the cit and make funding available to delivery them.

I don’t think Mike Baird was out there contract managing the project once he was Treasurer in 2011 – he was worried the budget for it was too fat.

By your logic you will give Daniel Mookhey all the credit for the Western Harbour Tunnel in 4 years time?

@ Insider
I agree selecting and committing to a project is critical. The NSW Labor government over its 16 year rule selected multiple heavy rail projects and committed to them but never delivered one in full. I repeat not one!
The only thing they delivered were glossy brochures into homes of residents of the Hills District. There is a good Four Corners episode link below which discusses my point. Link below. Consider the Rozelle metro and what a white elephant that was.

I never said Mike Baird deserves all the credit. i merely said that he was part of a government that had a purpose. He played for the team and not his own games. The reason i started this discussion is i am contrasting the performance of the Liberals at a federal level in Warringah and at a state level in corresponding state seats and we see a big difference in results. We can also see that the Liberals can be a broad church to include Perottett and Kean. They can be the party of Vauclause and Albury, Pittwater and Badgerys Creek, Manly and Holsworthy. They can include both people of faith and secular Inner city, suburban and rural. All this with a purpose of making NSW a better place then when they found it.

BTW i wish Chris Minns and Daniel Mookhey every success and in 4 years if they are good government not only will i give them credit but they will win with a majority.

Nimalan – lets leave it here, but I think you will find the ALP Government 1995 – 2011 delivered a lot of projects that augmented and improved the operation of the existing heavy rail network – something the NSW Liberals failed to do and we are seeing the effects of it. Have you heard of the Clearways Program? They also managed to employ enough train drivers.

The purpose of the Government Mike Baird was in was to spend the value of the electricity assets on privately operated metro lines that DO NOT FORM A NETWORK. They have also been an age in coming. Unless you live north west of Epping you still have not travelled on a train line that wasn’t there in 2011 – except for south west rail.

Don’t the Federal Liberals hold all of the locations you mention at a Federal level as well, apart from Pittwater since 2019 – so I am not sure of your point. I live in Willoughby (State) and North Sydney (Federal) and the seat results are pretty close – a couple % in it – so not sure your evidence stacks up. I think 2022 was just a Scomo effect – other than that the NSW and Federal Liberals are pretty similar

Insider, whilst the clearways program was beneficial for the transport network I would argue there were still capacity constraints caused by only two paths into the cbd (harbour bridge and city circle).

Therefore, at least one new entry point had to be built. Although the new harbour crossing could have been built as a heavy rail line similar to Brisbane cross river rail, but I guess having it built under private capacity enabled rail expansion to be completed faster and possibly cheaper compared to it being fully government funded.

@ Insider,
In the spirit of unity, let me state frankly that i do feel NSW Labor has many successes over the 16 year rule. I will cite expansion of National Parks, Education reforms, Tort reforms and environmental reforms to clean up Sydney Harbour and land clearing prevention among st them. They ought to be congratulated for that as well as helping to deliver the best ever Olympic Games. I am sure there there many more but just a few i am citing now. Yes i have heard of Rail Clearways and it was a fantastic initiative to improve capacity on the existing network. Personally, i was disappointed that many parts of it were later cancelled such as Duplication up to Vineyard (it only went as far as Schofields) and the Carlingford passing loop. The reason i cite the difference in state and federal results mainly around Mosman where the difference is stark. There is a narrative is some parts of the hard right of the Liberals to blame the voters. Not too long ago, if a party lost they would take sometime to reflect and then manage to campaign again for those votes. For example when NSW Labor lost in 2011 heartland seats such as Granville, Campbelltown and Newcastle. KK on her concession speech said “the people of NSW who entrusted us with government for 16 years did not leave us, we left them.” Today, some in the Liberals attack voters such as yourself who live in the North Shore as “rich, entitled and loud” they attack the voters. Imagine if NSW Labor furious about losses of heartland seats in 2011 made such as stupid comment like the voters who left them as “bigoted, ignorant and selfish” or something ridiculous like that. In 2019, Peta Credlin said to forget about Kooyong and that Aston is their new heartland when that seat too was lost last month they blame the ethnic demographics of that seat and the state that it is located in. Today Granville, Campbelltown and Newcastle are on solid margins once again as NSW Labor went and reconnected with those voters. Politics IMHO regardless of our leanings should be a race to the top and i would hate to see the Americanization of our politics with polarisation and political party affiliation being a psuedo-religion.

The Liberals need better candidates in this seat. For some reason Labor came close to winning the notional TPP count in this once blue-ribbon seat in both 2019 and 2022.

It just goes to show how the party did so much better here on the state level with better candidates. In 2023, James Griffin won Manly with 45.0% of the primary vote, 54.8% of the TCP vote and 62.5% of the notional TPP vote.

However it is also worth noting that the teals campaigned quite poorly at the 2022 Victorian state election and they did no better at the 2023 New South Wales state election, with no teals being elected in either of those elections (Judy Hannan ditched the “teal” label and her campaign colour was actually orange). Hence, the teal candidate for Manly (Joeline Hackman) only polled 27.2% of the primary vote and 45.2% of the notional TPP vote. If the teals weren’t so hardcore anti-Liberal then they would be contesting Labor seats like Coogee (on the state level) or (dare I say it) Kingsford Smith (on the federal level), both coastal seats in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney.

@np the notional 2ppvote was distorted by vote4s wh9 preferences Labor ahead liberal but behind stegall to send liberals a message but wouldn’t actually vote Labor on a 2pp terms

@ Nether Portal
I 100% agree with you on the Libs need a better candidate for this seat. Tony Abbott & Katherine Deves lost votes that other Liberals such as Zinnerman, Falinski & Frydenburg would not have lost especially places like Mosman.
Even if the Libs dont win Warringah back in 2025 they still need to improve their vote. Gisele Kapterian is a candidate i would recommend.
Btw i actually think very highly of James Griffin and see him as a future premier.

And for those who think it was due to the state seat of Manly being in a “conservative” part of Warringah (it isn’t necessarily), then here’s a comparison of 2022 federal and 2023 state election results polling places in and around the suburb Manly itself (ignoring exhausted preferences):

*I’ll make a new comment for this*

@Nimalan yeah James Griffin seems like a good bloke. He cares about the climate and stuff too.

Anyway, federal vs state Liberals in Manly (formatted as federal vs state):

Balgolwah Boys HS: 41.61% vs 56.27%
Balgolwah Heights HS: 39.48% vs 60.99%
Freshwater SLSC: 33.33% vs 50.05%
Harbord PS: 35.77% vs 53.73%
Manly Village PS: 31.68% vs 52.23%
Manly West PS: 29.43% vs 49.67%
Queenscliff SLSC: 32.54% vs 55.71%
Seaforth: 39.74% vs 58.04%

Abbreviations:
HS: High School
PS: Public School
SLSC: Surf Life Saving Club

Also, I don’t think it was Deves’ transgender comments that cost her gaining back ground. Polling shows that the vast majority of Aussies are against allowing trans women to compete against biological women in sport (I personally am no exception: I’m not transphobic but I don’t think trans women should ever be allowed to play against biological women in sports). What cost her gaining back ground was her rightism in general. She’s just quite socially conservative and not a Moderate like James Griffin is; plus Deves made numerous other comments in the past (many of which she has withdrawn and apologised for) about transgender people, including false claims that transgender children can transition (they can’t, that’s actually highly illegal in Australia) and then of course using the word “groomer” to describe trans people.

And if I was factionally aligned, I’d be in the Centre-Right or Moderate camp. I’m conservative from a rural upbringing but also open-minded.

Anyway the booths analysis was a bit of work but I do it so people understand elections better. Which seat should I analyse next?

*Seaforth is Seaforth PS btw forgot to add that bit

@John oh okay. I guess they weren’t sending the same message to Perrottet as they were to Scomo.