IND 7.2% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Zali Steggall, since 2019.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Warringah covers parts of the Northern Beaches and Lower North Shore of Sydney, including Manly, Mosman and parts of Neutral Bay, Allambie Heights, Brookvale and Curl Curl. The seat covers the entirety of Manly and Mosman council areas, as well as parts of North Sydney and Warringah. The largest proportion of the population lives in Warringah.
History
Warringah was first created at the 1922 election, and has never elected a Labor candidate, electing a conservative candidate at almost every election. The first exception was in 1937 when an independent was elected, who proceeded to join the United Australia Party shortly after his election and went on to serve as a minister in a number of conservative governments. The second exception was in 2019.
The seat was first won by Granville Ryrie in 1922. Ryrie had been Member for North Sydney since a 1911 by-election and was elected to Warringah unopposed. The ALP challenged him in 1925 but he managed over 80% of the vote.
Ryrie was appointed High Commissioner to London in 1927 and the by-election was won by Archdale Parkhill, in a race where the two Labor candidates polled barely 18% between them.
Parkhill had been the Lynton Crosby of early 20th Century Australian politics, coordinating many campaigns for the early Liberal Party and Nationalists over two decades. Parkhill served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1932 until 1937, serving as Minister for Defence during Lyons’ second term.
Parkhill was defeated at the 1937 election by conservative independent Percy Spender, who won the seat in a close race on preferences after falling 15% behind on primary votes. Spender went on to join the UAP shortly after his victory. Spender served in the wartime governments of Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden and served as Minister for External Affairs until 1951, when he retired at the election before being appointed Ambassador to the United States. Spender went on to serve as Australia’s first representative on the International Court of Justice at The Hague.
Spender was succeeded in 1951 by Francis Bland, who held the seat for ten years with massive majorities, polling over 70% on two occasions and being elected unopposed on a third. He retired without ever taking a ministerial role.
Bland was succeeded in 1961 by John Cockle, who held the seat until his death shortly before the 1966 election.
Cockle was succeeded by prominent Edward St John in 1966. St John caused controversy in 1969 attacking Prime Minister John Gorton, which led him to resign from the Liberal Party, and he was defeated at the 1969 election by Liberal candidate Michael MacKellar.
MacKellar served as a minister in the Fraser government until 1982, when a scandal involving the importation of a colour television saw him resign from the ministry.
MacKellar resigned from Parliament in 1994, and the ensuing by-election was won by Tony Abbott. Abbott went on to serve as a minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007, becoming a senior member of Cabinet in the last two terms of the government.
Abbott had always held Warringah by large margins over the ALP, and the first serious threat to his hold on the seat came in 2001, when Peter Macdonald, former independent member for the state seat of Manly, challenged Abbott. Macdonald polled 27% of the primary vote and came within 6% of defeating Abbott.
Abbott served as Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs following the Howard government’s defeat in November 2007, serving in the role under leaders Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.
Abbott resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the Emissions Trading Scheme, which triggered the collapse of Turnbull’s leadership. Abbott won a slim majority in a party room ballot against Turnbull in December 2009 and was elected Leader of the Liberal Party.
Abbott led the Coalition into the 2010 election. The Labor government lost its majority, but managed to piece together a majority with the support of crossbench MPs. Abbott led the Coalition through the next term, before winning the 2013 election. Tony Abbott served as Prime Minister until he was defeated for the Liberal leadership in September 2015. Abbott was re-elected in 2016, but in 2019 was defeated by independent Zali Steggall.
Assessment
Steggall is a first-term MP and will likely benefit from a new personal vote. There is a long history of first-term independents increasing their margin. But a lot of the swing in 2019 would have been motivated by a dislike for Tony Abbott, who won’t be running again.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Zali Steggall | Independent | 40,034 | 43.5 | +43.5 |
| Tony Abbott | Liberal | 35,935 | 39.0 | -12.6 |
| Dean Harris | Labor | 6,091 | 6.6 | -8.2 |
| Kristyn Glanville | Greens | 5,647 | 6.1 | -6.1 |
| Heather Barnes | Animal Justice | 1,291 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Susan Moylan | Independent | 1,111 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Emanuele Paletto | Sustainable Australia | 678 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Suellen Marree Wrightson | United Australia Party | 625 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Jason Blaiklock | Christian Democratic Party | 461 | 0.5 | -0.7 |
| Brian Clare | Conservative National Party | 250 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 4,897 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Zali Steggall | Independent | 52,728 | 57.2 | |
| Tony Abbott | Liberal | 39,395 | 42.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Abbott | Liberal | 48,011 | 52.1 | -9.0 |
| Dean Harris | Labor | 44,112 | 47.9 | +9.0 |
Warringah has been split into three areas: Manly, Mosman and Warringah. Polling places in the Mosman and North Sydney council areas have been grouped as “Mosman” while those booths in the Northern Beaches council area have been split between the two former council areas of Manly and Warringah.
Steggall won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.5% in Warringah to 62.6% in Manly. She also won the pre-poll and other votes but by smaller margins.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Warringah | 6.6 | 7.2 | 56.5 | 21,922 | 23.8 |
| Manly | 6.0 | 5.0 | 62.6 | 15,917 | 17.3 |
| Mosman | 5.5 | 6.5 | 58.6 | 14,664 | 15.9 |
| Pre-poll | 5.5 | 6.5 | 55.7 | 28,846 | 31.3 |
| Other votes | 7.8 | 8.3 | 53.2 | 10,774 | 11.7 |
Election results in Warringah at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Zali Steggall and the Liberal Party.
@ Nether Portal
If do a comparison between Federal Mosman booths in Warringah and State Mosman booths in North Shore you will see a stark contrast.
Sometimes i wish Gladys Berejiklian ran Warringah while i dont think she would won she would have outperformed Tony Abbott’s 2019 result. Also what is Katherine Deves views on climate? I think many Warringah voters hoped that the Libs would choose a moderate candidate in 2022
*Gladys ran in Warringah in 2022 i mean
@Nimalan alright I’ll do North Shore next.
Also, I don’t know Katherine Deves’ views on climate by knowledge. I’m a Liberal member but not from the Northern Beaches (it’s a beautiful spot and I’ve been there countless times but too expensive).
I’ll Google her views on climate.
According to the Daily Telegraph (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/manly-daily/warringah-election-katherine-deves-call-to-look-at-nuclear-power-for-future-energy-needs/news-story/d678af75fbf383df179a94539a1d301d?amp), she supports looking into nuclear energy as a future energy source. I don’t think that’s a bad idea as nuclear energy is actually considered sustainable and low-carbon (https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/3-reasons-why-nuclear-clean-and-sustainable), and many young Australians actually support nuclear power. The Coalition is officially pro-nuclear and it would help for net zero. Not sure about her other views though. I’ll have a further look.
(I Googled it but my comment is awaiting moderation, basically she’s pro-nuclear and doesn’t deny climate change but is anti-net zero)
She tweeted: https://twitter.com/deves_katherine/status/1726938437478228219
“Net zero policies for “saving the planet” and “protecting the environment” in action
How do the Australian politicians pushing the “climate emergency” agenda explain this carnage?”
Thanks @ Nether Portal
I agree Northern Beaches is a beautiful part of the world, i only have been there once in 2013 but loved it, i describe it as paradise.
There is a another tweet on her views on Climate which she described as a scam (link below). I think it is very hard to win Warringah back if a candidate is not pro net zero. Look forward to your examination into North Shore. Interestingly she was a captain’s pick not chosen by Liberal members.
https://twitter.com/deves_katherine/status/1739962720995418340
I did Manly before so now North Shore.
Warringah/North Shore, federal vs state Liberals (TCP):
Balmoral PS: 44.56% vs 61.81%
Forysth Park Community Centre: 39.00% vs 49.45%
Middle Harbour PS: 41.84% vs 58.72%
Mosman Drill Hall: 41.91% vs 64.51%
Mosman PS: 37.01% vs 60.24%
Neutral Bay PS: 36.29% vs 55.87%
Neutral Bay Uniting Church: 30.91% vs 50.93%
St Clement’s Anglican Church: 41.90% vs 57.18%
@Nimalan you were right: that’s an even bigger contrast!
Thanks Nether Portal, Much appreciated
As a Liberal member, do you know why there was not a rank and file preselection held in Warringah in time, Jane Buncle was interested in running and she had the backing of the moderate faction. Many Liberal members in Warringah were unhappy they did not get a say and may did not want to volunteer as a result.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/presumed-liberal-candidate-for-warringah-quits-amid-state-branch-turmoil-20220131-p59spw.html
That was quite publicly reported at the time as the result of broader factional drama that affected preselections across many NSW seats. A number of sitting NSW Liberal MPs (some of whom were in Morrison’s centre-right faction) were facing preselection challenges from other factions that were believed to have substantial support, which caused significant tension. To oppose some of these challenges to sitting MPs, Alex Hawke (a close Morrison ally) was fairly broadly abusing his position on the nomination review committee to block candidates being endorsed, by simply preventing the meetings being held (the meetings were a requirement for endorsing candidates under the NSW Lib constitution). This failure to endorse candidates meant that the federal executive eventually intervened to resolve the deadlock, which was Hawke & Morrison’s intention (after a lot of internal wrangling in an attempt to placate the various factions). This resulted in sitting MPs being re-endorsed and a small committee (including Morrison and Perrottet) hand-picking candidates in the remaining branches.
@Nimalan again I’m not from the area so I’m not particularly sure. However, I think it was part of the rushed preselection in NSW at the last election. Remember when there was that three-person committee of Scomo, Perrottet and former NSW Liberal president Christine McDiven that preselected a bunch of last-minute candidates in Sydney? Warringah was one of those seats.
I think it also had something to do with factions. Wikipedia tells me that there were plenty of Moderates who wanted to contest (disability advocate David Brady was among them too) as well as another Conservative candidate (defence analyst Lincoln Parker), but both men were described as being “not the candidate we’re looking we really need here”. Interestingly she actually was a “circuit breaker” in that she managed to get past a Liberal Party rule that would’ve actually prevented her from running as a Liberal candidate due to her not being a member of the party for long enough. Deves was described by branch members as “smart, articulate and not at all a “politician”, and she looks like a movie star”.
Basically the whole preselection business in Warringah was an absolute mess.
My reading from afar was that Jane Buncle seemed to be a very good candidate but this was not the election for her. Why run and lose when the Morrison government was on the nose and Zali Steggall was always going to win. Running and losing would have doomed her political career forever.
@ Nether Portal
I hope they do a proper preselection in Warringah in 2025 and that a good candidate emerges.
@ Redistributed, i do agree 100% with you that Morrison was on the nose and Zali Steggall would have certainly won it. Where i disagree is that running and losing would have doomed her political career forever
Other examples of candidates who ran and lost and succeeded later on.
1. Kevin Rudd ran in Griffith in 1996 and lost a seat that Labor held for more than almost 20 years only to win it 1998
2. David Bradbury ran for Lindsay twice before finally winning on his third attempt in 2007
3. Shayne Neumann on his first attempt at Blair in 2004 suffered a swing against him before getting a big swing towards him in 2007
4. Susan Templeman ran in Macquarie in 2010, 2013 (Labor on the nose) before finally winning the seat in 2016
5. Pauline Richards ran in Forest Hill in 2014 suffered a swing against her contrary to statewide trend and then won Cranbourne with a big swing to her in 2018. Today the replacement seat for Forest Hill is held by Labor and they only won it when running for third term.
6. Cathy O’Toole ran for Hebert in 2013 when Labor was on the nose but won it in 2016.
I think there other metrics of success, for example Jane Buncle may have got a notional swing from Labor to the Libs, she may have flipped some booths and improved the Liberal primary compared to 2019. It would also add weight to the argument that the Libs cannot just give up on the Teal seats.
Hard to see Katherine Deves running for the Libs again after being the solicitor for two of the plaintiffs in the John Pessutto defamation case. Unless of course someone wants to ignite an even bigger factional fire.
@redistributed libs wont run the same failed candidate twice in a teal seat
@John The Libs are running Tim Wilson again in Goldstein, the caveat being that he was an MP instead of Deves who ran just to be controversial.
As for Goldstein, it really depends on the redistribution as if the seat adds Caulfield,the Libs will certainly win back due to the Israel-Gaza issue whereas if the seat but it it moved East or/and Elwood, Teals most likely would retain as it is stronger for Labor/Greens which will mostly likely preference Teals above Libs.
@Marh I’m not certain that the conflict will have effect that many seem to think it will have. Australia’s position is somewhat inconsequential and won’t alter the conflict, even in government I doubt the Liberals would be as strident as they are now similar to the Tories in the UK.
As for the redistribution, I’d prefer that all of Caulfield is placed within Goldstein as that would have relatively neat boundaries and serve community interests. That would probably help the Libs but I’d still expect Daniel to hold. I guess we’ll need to wait and see.
@kt1 yea but hes the former member and running against a frist term mp stegall has now entrenched herself
@ John
I dont know honestly if it is because Stegall has really entrenched herself or is it because in 2019 and 2022 she faced two unpopular hard right canadiates. If she faced a more moderate candidate in 2019 and 2022 it would be more competitive.
@John That could have an impact considering he has name recognition in the area and is a known quantity. Katie Allen is also running again in Higgins, albeit a Labor held seat it definitely has a teal complexion.
@nimalan yes and they were campaigning on issues that were more beneficial at the time i.e climate change but now CoL is the centrl issue though i dont know how much that effects people in this division.
@KT1 libs will win higgins in my opinion due to the redistribution and CoL issues, wilson im not so sure on tbh
@ John
i agree cost of living, inflation etc are more of an issue now than in 2019 and 2022 however, it is probably less of an issue relatively in very wealthy areas like Mosman than it would be an say Penrith.
@nimalan i think so to but the teals in goldstein, kooyong and curtin not so much. those are probaly t e 3 most at risk, and one of the north shore will be gone to either redistribution or mini redistribution. a mini redistribution could be the liberals best bet to get rid of spender or stegall or both. the libs would proaly rather spender when any combined warringah-wentworth comes into play since she would contest wentworth when they were divided again and given its probably gonna be marginal having her in that seat will protect it from labor and could be there chance to remove stegall
given north sydney proposed abolition and the fact beneelong and bradfield already have candidates could Gisele Kapterian simply move to the warringah nomination? given that about 1/3 of ns will be in warringah
@John potentially yes.
@np im assuming that they might do that but im guessing they will wait until ns abolition is finalised as albo could still call an election before then howevver unlikely
It has been reported that Jaimee Rogers who is a Sports Presenter is running for Liberal preselection while i dont think she can beat Zali Steggall she may get a huge notional TPP swing to the Libs.
I think warringah will fall in 2028
Any thoughts on the candidate who should be selected
@Nimalan should be a moderate. I remember when I was new to the site (last year) one of the first things I analysed was federal vs state results in Warringah and Manly, as you would remember. I pointed out that it’s so strange that the Warringah Liberal candidates always seem to be right-wing and they keep losing and doing worse but the Manly Liberal MPs (and all the Northern Beaches/North Shore state Liberals) are moderates and win, beating the teals. This is a teal seat, the candidate needs to be a moderate. Not someone like Katherine Deves who calls climate change a scam and even opposes pornography.
@ NP
Totally agree and i remember the great analysis you did comparing the booths. Candidate should reflect the demographics and the values of the seat. This area is quite moderate, secular etc but pro free market. A more right wing candidate maybe ok for the Sutherland Shire or Lindsay but the North Shore/Northern Beaches or Eastern Suburbs. A National Right MP will be suitable for Longman, Forde etc but certainly not Warringah or Mackellar. I would say the say for Labor they cant really choose a Progressive candidate for Blair, Hunter, Holt etc but can choose such candidates for Wills, Cooper, Freemantle etc. I would even say in South Australia: Sturt and Boothby ought to be represented by moderates while Barker and Grey can be represented by the National Right. I find it weird if Deves campaigns against pornography in a seat when the Liberal party does not believe in paternalism or a nanny state.
The Teals will not lose a seat at the next election as Dutton is no moderate. A moderate Liberal candidate in the seat can get a swing to them but think it will not be enough to win. Think the Kooyong Liberal candidate is an excellent choice a woman, young and moderate but with the Presidential style of Politics in Federal Elections they will not see past the fact if they vote for her they will get Dutton as Prime Minister.
I have not researched it but might tomorrow where did the teal vote go in the Senate ? Did Greens get an increase in the vote or did it revert back to the Liberal Party ?
Damien there is polling to suggest kooyong Goldstein an curtain will flip back.
@Damian the Liberals still got most of the Senate vote in the teal seats and the two ex-LNP Greens seats in Brisbane. In Griffith and Melbourne the Greens got the most Senate votes.
Deves was the wrong candidate for Warringah, but was the strategy to capitalise on her high profile to sandbag other Liberal Seats and their Senators in NSW?
They were always losing Mackellar, North Sydney and Wentworth, but it could have bee a lot worse.