LIB 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Steve Irons, since 2007.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Swan covers suburbs in the inner south of Perth. This includes the entire Belmont, South Perth and Victoria Park council areas and parts of Canning and Kalamunda council areas. Swan covers the suburbs of Victoria Park, Cloverdale, Kewdale, Rivervale, Bentley, Cannington, Como, Manning and Forrestfield.
Redistribution
Swan rotated around, losing its south-eastern corner and gaining more to the east. Swan lost Beckenham and Kenwick to Burt and gained Forrestfield from Hasluck. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 2.7% to 3.2%.
Swan is an original federation electorate. It was first held by John Forrest for the Protectionist party from 1901. Forrest was the first Premier of Western Australia and moved to federal politics in 1901. He served as a minister in various governments, including four stints as Treasurer, the last being in the year up until his death in 1918 under Billy Hughes.
The ensuing by-election was won by 21-year-old Labor candidate Edwin Corboy when the Nationalist and Country Party candidates split the conservative vote. This led to the government introducing preference voting, and he lost the seat at the 1919 election to John Prowse of the Country Party. The Country part held the seat until 1943, first John Prowse then Henry Gregory and Thomas Marwick. Marwick was defeated by the ALP’s Donald Mountjoy in 1943, and Mountjoy was defeated by the Country Party’s Leonard Hamilton in 1946.
The Parliament was expanded in 1949 and Hamilton moved to the new seat of Canning, and the Liberal Party’s Bill Grayden won the seat. The ALP’s Harry Webb won the seat in 1954 and held it for one term until 1955, when he moved to the new seat of Stirling. Richard Cleaver of the Liberals won the seat in 1955 and held it until his defeat in 1969.
Adrian Bennett held the seat for the ALP from 1969 until 1975, when John Martyr won the seat for the Liberals. Martyr was a former state secretary of the Democratic Labor Party. He was defeated in 1980 by Kim Beazley.
Beazley held the seat until 1996, when he moved to the safer seat of Brand. Don Randall won the seat for the Liberals in 1996 and was defeated in 1998. He later moved to the nearby seat of Canning and held it from 2001 until his death in 2015.
ALP candidate Kim Wilkie won Swan in 1998. He held the seat until the 2007 election, when he was the only sitting Labor MP to be unseated, losing to Steve Irons. Irons has been re-elected four times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Steve Irons is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Swan is a very marginal seat, and if Labor is resurgent in Western Australia it will be their first target. This seat has been trending to the right over the last two decades, which has partly reflected a shift to the right in Western Australia, but Swan has still shifted further than the state overall. Despite this trend, the seat remains very marginal and has always voted to the left of the state.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Steve Irons | Liberal | 37,591 | 44.7 | -3.5 | 44.7 |
| Hannah Beazley | Labor | 27,953 | 33.2 | +0.2 | 32.9 |
| Liberty Cramer | Greens | 10,367 | 12.3 | -2.7 | 12.0 |
| Tshung-Hui Chang | One Nation | 2,038 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.9 |
| Peter Mclernon | United Australia Party | 1,482 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.8 |
| Steve Klomp | Australian Christians | 1,450 | 1.7 | -2.1 | 1.7 |
| Sharron Hawkins Zeeb | Western Australia Party | 1,102 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.4 |
| Virginia Anne Thomas-Wurth | Animal Justice | 1,304 | 1.5 | +1.6 | 1.3 |
| Carmel Addink | Conservative National Party | 599 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.6 |
| Michael Chehoff | Australia First | 251 | 0.3 | +0.3 | 0.3 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 5,196 | 5.8 | +2.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Steve Irons | Liberal | 44,333 | 52.7 | -0.9 | 53.2 |
| Hannah Beazley | Labor | 39,804 | 47.3 | +0.9 | 46.8 |
Booths have been divided into four parts, mostly along local government boundaries. Polling places in the South Perth council area have been grouped as “west”. Those in Victoria Park and Belmont have been grouped as “central”. Those in Kalamunda are “east” while those in Canning (and a small part of Victoria Park) are “south”.
The outer edges of the seat lean to the Liberal Party while the middle is more pro-Labor.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote on election day in two areas, winning 54.5% in the east and winning a large 60.9% majority in the west.
Labor polled 53.6% in the centre and 55.8% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.9% in the east to 14.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 13.9 | 46.4 | 21,443 | 22.7 |
| West | 12.1 | 60.9 | 16,378 | 17.3 |
| East | 8.9 | 54.5 | 12,948 | 13.7 |
| South | 14.3 | 44.2 | 8,321 | 8.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.4 | 54.7 | 18,469 | 19.5 |
| Other votes | 12.1 | 56.5 | 16,994 | 18.0 |
Election results in Swan at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Finally the guide exists.
Steve Irons is a “local”* MP who takes credit for everything despite not doing all that much.
Zaneta Mascarenhas seems like a really good fit for the area but Labor Right and associated unions are doing everything they can to sabotage her campaign.
Clint Uink is a Koreng Noongar man and it’s great to see diversity in Perth seats because there hasn’t been that much as of late, and will be great to see alongside Dorinda Cox, the soon to be Senator.
The sizeable personal vote of Ken Wyatt’s will be lost in Forrestfield/Maida Vale/Wattle Grove and this will make life harder for Irons.
I predict a Labor gain because of the swings in the state seats to Labor:
SOUTH PERTH +17.3%
Victoria Park +11.1%
Belmont +17.8%
Cannington +12.8%
Forrestfield +16.1%
*Doesn’t live in the electorate, lives in Melville
Prior to the addition of the eastern Areas around Forrestfield from Hasluck, this seat reminded me of Dunkley a seat sharply polarised along Class lines with waterfront mansions in South Perth similar to Mount Eliza/Frankston South and more deprived areas inland.
Its been reported in the Western Australian that Steve Irons is facing a pre-selection challenge from Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney.
Whatever your opinon of Irons it wouldn’t be the smartest decision to despatch a incumbent this election. In a seat where the margin is vulnerable and the WA state elections were so strong for Labor.
If McSweeney couldn’t win preselection in Bateman, she won’t win it here. Why would the local branch ditch a local MP who is the longest serving lower house MP in WA?
Because… he’s the longest serving lower house MP in WA. (Along with Nola Marino.) 14 years of bugger-all. I don’t even have anything negative to say about him – I couldn’t pick the guy out of a lineup.
Most MPs who have been around that long either become ministers (Bishop, Wyatt, Porter, Price), or get notable for being controversial (Dennis Jensen was a climate change denier, Luke Simpkins was Hansonite some days, Moylan and Washer rocked the boat on refugee detention). Irons is just… there. He was lucky WA didn’t come to the Rudd-mania party back in 2007, and he stayed lucky while this state is weirdly allergic to federal Labor. It won’t last forever, and he’ll be forgotten very soon after the bubble bursts.
McSweeney the younger sounds far-right (Tony Abbott, Sky News). Ugh.
Irons has announced he is retiring next election. Gonna be hard for the libs to hold onto this.
As a Swan voter, I’m happy that Steve Irons is leaving. The guy has to be one of the laziest MPs ever. He literally gave up on interacting with constituents back in 2013 and spend most of his time playing golf around the Country.
Swan had the strangest feel at the last election, the traditional Liberal areas of South Perth voted Labor and the traditional Liberal areas voted Labor.
So it is an area were Liberal voters are prepared to vote Labor. It seems strange that Labor holds the seat of South Perth, let alone holds the seat by 10% and nearly won on primary votes alone.
This looks to be the first seat in WA to go to Labor and if they cannot win Swan they cannot win Government.
safe ALP gain. Labor will have a margin of at least 5% here given the following factors
1. Steve Irons is retiring and sitting member loss is bad for the party holding the seat
2. McGowan is seen as a strong leader in WA so some of that will translate to the federal stage.
Out of interest I noticed the small number of seats lost by oppositions who win power at the election where they are losing the seat and noticed this is one of them.
Kristy McSweeney has been endorsed unopposed as the Liberal candidate in Swan. A poll of 800 in the Australian reported that Labor was ahead 57 – 43 on two party preferred in this seat. Labor was tracking at a primary vote of 44% it was reported.
Political Nightwatchman
I don’t read the Oz but I’m not stunned at all.
Swan is very likely to be a Labor gain when you consider the popularity of WA Labor, no sitting MP and the increasingly unpopular Liberal Federal Government.
Moved into this area a few years ago and there isn’t a strong sense of common interest in different sections of this seat. You have the western third (South Perth) that is quite well-off and normally Liberal heartland, an eastern third (Belmont) that is more working class and Labor leaning, and a central third (Victoria Park) that has a combination of the former two along with some inner city traits with substantial votes for the Greens. It’s a microcosm of most metropolitan areas within a single seat.
Ryan Spencer
Do you give McSweeney zero chance ? None at all ? If not then what percentage or odds would you prescribe ?. Clearly a lot can change so it may be interesting if you feel moved to adjust your view over the next 5 months.
Whilst it’s going a little too far to claim no one outside WA can comment, i agree that as the “man on the ground” so to speak, that we all could be fairly deferential to your lived experience. In the same way as i’d feel aggrieved a little, about being lectured about places that iv’e lived in !!. Actually IFRC there were some instances where i may have got a little aggressive………
cheers WD
Yeah I give her a very small chance given the unusual conditions. The Libs are too worried about the eastern states, primarily because of all those “independents” running in all the moderate Liberal seats. I feel like they’ve unfortunately given up in Swan, like they did at the state election, because their candidate(s) have zero visibility. She’s also only doing letterboxing, and she’s purportedly only leafletted about 8,500 homes. Problem is, Labor and the Greens have doorknocked 14,000 doors between them, and that means that she’s a long way off the ball. She’s doing a lot of what Steve Irons does, liaising with business owners in the seat, but ultimately the swing votes aren’t business owners, they’re people in South Perth who the Libs take for granted each and every election here in Swan. I live in one of the more electorally competitive suburbs and I have been doorknocked by both Labor and Green candidates, which is a worry for the Libs, because they seem to be trying to make up a lot of lost ground. Also, McSweeney is very clearly far-right, which mightn’t be useful here (see her Sky News stuff) and also Labor’s candidate is very friendly and clearly community-minded, so I reckon McSweeney will struggle to keep it below a 5-6% swing. Also the borders won’t be opening in February because the eastern state premiers have let it rip and I have a feeling that the sandgropers aren’t gonna buy that whole “living with covid” narrative yet, especially since we’ve been “living without covid” for a long, efficient and productive time.
Ryan, I guess the feeling about border closures varies depending whether you are a long established ‘local’ resident vs a new transplant. I have some friends/colleagues in Brisbane who are still of the view that borders should remain closed, whilst I support the controlled reopening given that high vaccination rates have shown to limit severe illness and death compared to previous outbreaks.
Even the worst hit areas in NSW are still nowhere near as bad as some places internationally (especially Europe and US) in terms of case numbers and their severity. If WA still want to maintain their covid free status they may be like China and maintain a closed/mostly shut border indefinitely.
Ryan Spencer
Thanks for the reply
A well formulated analysis. It all makes sense, & there is nothing to dispute. Your prediction about the borders in February is interesting. If i were PM all borders would be open right now. Any resistance would be met with cessation of Commonwealth funding, troops escorting citizens border crossings, Federal police arrests etc. However our PM is a pussy ! On that we will always agree! Perhaps Emperor McGowan might feel a little naked , in that kind of reality !?
It is ironic that McSweeney is a Reformer/Perfectionist type 1 fixation like the majority of the Greens. Perhaps you can appreciate how unimpressed most are with all the preaching, & lecturing ?. Don’t underestimate the appeal that this type have in terms of strength , clarity, direction, & force (fullness). Same reason most of my lefty friends are so impressed with Penny Wong Shoebridge, SHY etc.
cheers WD
Yoh An
Your view on border opening/closure is far more compelling, & persuasive. I suspect the real or true reason behind border closures, is the unbelievably inept, & fragile state of the health systems in WA, & QLD . A completely self-inflicted state of affairs. But thats the beauty of Covid. Covid gives weight, & heft to blaming the Commonwealth for Everything !!
Call me cynical….!.
cheers WD
winediamond
She works for Sky News so she’d better be good at preaching to her audience.
Ryan Spencer
In point of fact McSweeney was a guest commentator not an employee. It seems that you didn’t get what i was illustrating. The point about this personality type is that preaching IS, repeat IS, their communication style. Mine is “laying trips” Mrs WD is lamentation.Miss WD flattery. The PM PROPAGANDISING ! Get the idea !? There are only 9 types. Human beings are not that complicated, special or different.
Have a think about this. You could choose to be generous enough to see McSweeney in the same light as i did with Emma McBride (Dobell). If not, i’d be interested as to why not
cheers WD
Labor’s popularity will collapse overnight if McGowan goes ahead with reopening. Whether their vote will as well depends on who else is running and what their stance is on Covid management. My two cents as a West Australian.
I like Ryan Spencer don’t understand what the ubiquitous “Winediamond” is on about, except that he does use a lot of words.
WD likely has dementia, as proven by his misogynistic and unintelligible rants and gratuitous use of upper case and egregious punctuation, have another glass of non-alcoholic wine WD
Tell me echt are you a psychiatrist, because you your psychological analysis and therapy suggestion is very prudent ?
Wd is nor insane..he approaches from the view of right wing disent. Based on a personality analysis of the political candidates.I don’t agree with the basic approach I look at things from a Labor approach with the knowledge that my party needs to to win govt..after seeing what a anti Labor govt can do..I hope to push or even nudge in the direction of social justice
non-alcoholic beverages are all the rage amongst us youth, mainly because everyone can drink them, and we can drink a few sensibly and still drive home. Also now that they’re way cheaper they’ll eventually start outselling alcoholic beverages and society will be better because of it.
Some very infantile discourse going on here and in other electorates’ threads. The remarks of echt and John T, the latter across many threads, are pointless and distracting. I’ve been lurking here since I found this site a few weeks ago, and in my observations of winediamond, while I can see that he and I would disagree politically, I have scarcely seen him make remarks that were unreasonable or not supported by psephological evidence. Personally, I know little about the demographic side of the electoral system and have been fascinated with the wealth of knowledge (or apparent wealth of knowledge ?? in some cases) of Ben and some commenters. John T’s clear hatred of the Coalition also seems to render him incapable of interpreting conflicting opinions. Poor form.
echt
Thank you for You’re diagnosis as to my mental competence. My memory is fine thanks, & has been likened to “savant like” prowess, or perhaps likely just simply obsessive . FYI dementia is not a psychiatric health condition.
As for non alcoholic wine i wouldn’t even waste my time even thinking about it.
John T
FYI dementia is not a psychiatric health condition.
mick Quinlivan
Thanks for the very gracious, generous acknowledgement. Perhaps we can have a serious chat about social justice in the New Year ?
merry xmas wd
Douglas
Thankyou for your comments . Please continue to make your presence felt. I look forward to any future discourse with you
cheers wd
Hannah beazley is now mp for half the seat she will be able to help her federal colleagues
No, Douglas, I don’t hate the Coalition government or their supporters, although I am concerned that the worthy values that the Liberal Party once stood for for have been eroded over the last few years. I’m not into hate or hubris. I have worked in the past for a company that does political polling so do have some knowledge , after studying political science to post graduate level. We are all entitled to our own opinions, but not to our own facts. This is a point that should be taken on board by everyone including “yours truly”, but particularly by those on the RIGHT side of politics that frequently comment on this site.
The bookmakers seemingly regard this as the most obvious seat in the nation to change hands this year. Labor are firm favourites, paying $1.25 to the Coalition’s $3.70.
It’d be good to see Mascarenhas win, because we have few STEM graduates in parliament, who bring a different set of strengths to the typical lawyer politicians.
It doesn’t seem that the major parties are investing too much effort in Swan, have seen leaflets from the Liberals, Labor and the Greens (and been doorknocked by the latter). The expectation is it’ll be a likely Labor gain, but it’s also a fickle seat.
Marginals seat polls in the West Australian today show this seat with a 59-41 lead for Labor and a 54-46 ALP lead as a whole across Swan, Pearce, Hasluck, and Tangney. I’d be surprised if Labor won with a margin that large, but this might be the safest seat to call a flip in this election. Shock if the Liberals hold on.
also, it seems like McSweeney isn’t exactly that moderate either…
https://www.outinperth.com/liberal-candidate-says-she-can-determine-everyones-gender-in-electorate/
Another seat poll for Swan showing a comfortable Labor gain, 57-43. As I said before, safest flip this election. ALP gain.
Agreed its a very safe bet, probably the safest bet in the country to mark as a Labor gain. The Liberals don’t really seem to be even trying here.
comment from the ground: the Liberals have indeed given up. They’re gonna divert all their resources into Tangney instead.
Wow..Tangney is normally a reliable liberal seat
@Mick – The Liberals must be in deep trouble in WA if they are needing to campaign in Tangney. But the margins in WA may have been over inflated for a long period of time and Labor sees Tangney as a chance. There is no Liberal in this region, whereas in previous elections (even with Labor in power) all of the state seats in Tangney would have been Liberal
Tangney is probably more at risk than Hasluck because Wyatt will be able to absorb all/most of the swing given he’s actually popular, unlike Morton, who is easily painted as Morrison’s henchman. Also the sizeable Asian community in Tangney could play a role as a net positive for the left, given Labor and Greens candidates Lim and Abdul Razak are both of that background. It’s observable that certain demographic groups will support a candidate if they see themselves represented in that candidate.
Swan also has a lot of candidates, LIB, GRN, LAB, AJP, Christians, UAP, an Independent and a Federation Party who both have no online profile, and according to their website, a soon-to-be LDP candidate. Given the ONP and the WAP are likely to run as well (regardless of how dismally they went last time) which is already one more candidate than 2019. Despite how the outer suburbs vote, no booth had an ONP vote higher than 8%, and given the AJP outpolled them in a number of South Perth it’s likely that most (if not all) of these candidates will lose their deposits.
Ryan, my thinking is Hasluck is at greater risk than Tangney as Ellenbrook is now in the seat and is mortgage belt while Tangney for the most part is an affluent established area. I do concede that there is a large Chinese community which maybe unhappy about the Hawkish position on China. Also i feel Canning could have big swing especially around Byford which is mortgage belt and the northern part of Mandurah which is often Labor leaning. However, i am not from WA and you maybe have a better feeling on the ground so better able to share insights.
According to the West Australian, Liberal internal polling suggests this seat and Pearce are coming back for the Liberals, although they still trail Labor. I highly doubt that given all the assumptions of this seat being possibly the single easiest flip for Labor in the country, but would be interested to hear thoughts from those more familiar with the campaigns in Swan and/or Pearce.
That Liberal internal polling would be outrageous if it actually happened. Considering that the Liberal campaign is not doing much here, combined with the fact the ALP and even the Greens have been more active than them, I highly McSweeney will hold the seat.
Seeing as “leaked internal polling” pretty much never gets leaked in the form of actual numbers that are open to scrutiny, I wouldn’t put much faith in it. And leaking it to the friendly conservative newspapers is usually just a case of rallying the troops.
“Improving, but still trailing Labor” could mean their 2PP has improved from 30-70 to 31-69 for all we know.
I live in Swan, and it doesn’t even feel like their is a campaign going on. The Libs have given up here, it’s a near certain Labor gain.
Yeah always be careful with when parties leak their internal polling, it’s almost always motivated. This has to be the safest Labor gain of the election imo