Ryan – Australia 2022

No I would not place Ryan after Forde, Petrie, Longman, Bonner and Dickson because it has quite different demographics. Ryan is a very middle class area without the battler element you find in Forde or Longman or Dickson. It is very, very green and at the last state election the Cooper electorate which includes much of the Ryan area almost went Green, while Maiwar which is most of the rest of Ryan is Green.

There is definitely a swing on – very noticeable for the last two weeks, but just how large a swing is unclear. 6% is a very big call, and a win for ALP is unlikely but not impossible. Now with less than 4% separating the Greens from ALP you cannot rule them out either. My gut feel is that the Greens are not putting in the effort, but they have a much stronger candidate than in 2019 and she is possibly putiing in the work in green heartland (Maiwar)

Maverick
The only actual party campaigning ( as opposed to paid activity) I have seen so far in this election has been the Greens holding street meetings in Pullenvale. I was not in Metro area yesterday so I know from gut feeling that activity would have been widespread but I was isolated yesterday.

Andrew

Where i live the LNP has been out in the streets for months as has the ALP. Greens not so much – but I have seen them elsewhere.

The ALP candidate has been focusing on door knocking, None of this is paid.- Neither ALP nor LNP. You can tell because the people on the street are the old stagers – regulars who chat to one another and know each other by name.

Best not to make allegations about people being paid. Yes I know the LNP has at times used paid people- young ones, who they ring in on election day. No sign of this yet in Ryan. The ALP does not pay supporters/workers but close to the election date and on election day, unions will donate staff resources, but usually it is only for the heavy lifting- putting up big banners etc.

The only one with money to pay is Palmer, but he is not visible in Ryan yet.

I’m not sure how much the Greens have shared publicly so I won’t go into details but in terms of ground game, you really couldn’t be more wrong about the Greens’ Ryan campaign. What they haven’t done is adequately prepared basic visibility material. Billboards/corflutes etc should have been ready to go on the weekend or at the very least, within the next few days. I suspect funding has a lot to do with that but still, not good enough.

Like I said months ago there are plenty of people doing it tough in Ryan, as there are throughout the whole country. Maybe Ryan doesn’t have quite as many in high-vis workgear, but nonetheless.

Maverick you’re dead wrong to say that the “ALP does not pay supporters/workers”. They pay for organisers all the time, just probably not for seats as far down the list as Ryan.

Doorknocking is one of those campaign tactics that’s completely invisible unless you happen to be doorknocked. I’ve seen Greens friends boasting that they’ve done over 11,000 meaningful interactions and that this is the second-largest field campaign the party has ever run. I guess we’ll see what that does for them.

I predict:
Simmonds sophomore bump is enough to see him hold on, but with a considerably reduced margin.
ALP-Green gap narrows, with the Green vote growth strongest around their core of Maiwar and Cooper, and weakest in the Moggill and Ferny Grove ends of the electorate.

The latest Resolve poll (4 April) has a swing in Qld I’m not prepared to believe: ALP +6.3, LNP -10.7, GRN +3.7. So let’s call it indicative. We also know that the nature of the local electorate is a huge factor. So let’s look at the trend. In the three elections (2013, 2016, 2019) Labor has actually gone backwards 25.5% to 24.4% as have the Libs, when a preppy boy overthrew one of the few female Lib MHRs … 51.7 to 48.6. The Greens have improved from 14.4% to 20.3%. Having lived in Chapel Hill for 17 years and knowing the electorate well, I’d call this a teal seat. So I’m expecting that the anti Morrison sentiment is likely to flow more to the Greens (where climate change is better understood because of education levels, this is evident in the low PHONP vote). So, (a) if there is a 10% swing against the LNP (b) the Greens continue their upward trend since 2013 and (c) Labor remains static, then there is every chance that the Greens (who I’ve seen all over the place outnumbering LNP and ALP with placards) could cause Antony Green to get a little excited on election night.

Party organisers are employees of that party

LeoT analysis seems solid to me.

The latest Resolve poll (4 April) has a swing in Qld I’m not prepared to believe: ALP +6.3, LNP -10.7, GRN +3.7. So let’s call it indicative. We also know that the nature of the local electorate is a huge factor. So let’s look at the trend. In the three elections (2013, 2016, 2019) Labor has actually gone backwards 25.5% to 24.4% as have the Libs, when Simmonds beat Jane Prentice … one of the few female Lib MHRs … 51.7 to 48.6. The Greens have improved from 14.4% to 20.3%. Having lived in Chapel Hill for 17 years and knowing the electorate well, I’d call this a teal seat. So I’m expecting that the anti Morrison sentiment is likely to flow more to the Greens (where climate change is better understood because of education levels, this is evident in the low PHONP vote). So, (a) if there is a 10% swing against the LNP (b) the Greens continue their upward trend since 2013 and (c) Labor remains static, then there is every chance that the Greens (who I’ve seen all over the place outnumbering LNP and ALP with placards) could cause Antony Green to get a little excited on election night.

LeoT
Even if ALP does not pay their allies in Trade Union movement do.2016 election ACTU had a full time operative in Longman. Not that there is anything wrong with that unless you are the poor bunny paying for this activity.Clive Palmer certainly paid for some workers and I even know of minor party candidates who have paid to have literature distributed. I doubt if the Liberals are actually delivering their literature door to door.

Ryan will become more marginal but LNP is gonna get reelected here, easy! State seat of Moggill embedded in this seat will help them with this. Greens will be the main opposition in the seat. Might fall to Greens in 2025 after four-term exhaustion with LNP/Nats.

bernard and keo
more or less agree with both.
f

Soyboi what do you mean “4-term exhaustion with LNP/Nats”? If you are implying Morrison will win again you are totally wrong and you are clearly onto something. Absolutely no chance the coalition wins again under Morrison let’s just set that straight.

LNP hold this either way due to its traditional Liberal DNA

Hey Daniel, I hope Scomo loses but living in Brisbane, I don’t see a massive swing to Labour happening this election. I am happy to be proven wrong.

Soyboi, I agree with you. I still think it’s very possible that Labor will lose a seat or two and yet achieve a statewide swing of 3%. What matters is where the votes go!

As a long term LNP (Liberal) voter – havng lived in this electroate for 20 + years – I can say with almost certainty that Simmonds – based on fufilling the promises he made – will retain the seat.
Moreover tho – there is certainly a vote coming against ScoMo for being a ducking and weaving liar – but unfortunately it is clear Albo is just as hopelessly bad at campaigning as his predecessor Shorten – so i would expect for the people that vote based on the leaders of the main parties this will offset.
I’m going to vote green for the first time – I hope others do the same – if this seat is ever going to go away from the LNP i think that it would more likey go the greens than labor – who are very unpopular in the leafier suburbs… and yes I’m changing votes based on Scomo – not the current sitting member.

I think a 2PP LNP vs GRN is likely but I don’t think many LNP voters are going to switch to preferencing Simmonds below Cossar or Watson-Brown. The LNP primary vote will drop dramatically though, as LNP voters (and some ALP) are going to vote for freedom friendly parties instead but will preference LNP before ALP unless they are extremely stupid.
The university students who got Berkman elected in Maiwar don’t like ALP, especially now that they’ve adopted Tony Abbott’s immigration policy in an attempt to fool LNP voters.

I went to a Greens event in Indooroopilly and let me tell you they are putting the effort in. But there are very few LNP voters who will switch to the Greens and the LDP, One Nation and UAP votes will go to Simmonds via preferences. Simmonds has delivered on his promises from 2019 and the swing against him, if there is one, will be small.

Mitchell the chances of an urban seat like Ryan swinging much different to the overall state swing is pretty low.
Ryan voters may vote vote Green over issues like SSM and climate change but they will rush back to the LNP if they think their negatively geared rental property or holiday home is threatened by Green taxation proposals. I travel into electorate about once a forthright and will be going to three open gardens in the electorate this weekend but as I said previously the Greens are working this seat in a way they certainly are not doing in the outer suburbs of Northern Brisbane City. Ryan is Mercs, BMW and Peugeot territory hardly a Ute in sight. Frequently there is a 30cents a litre difference in price of fuel between Kenmore and the Northern outskirts of Ryanin Enogerra.

“…the chances of an urban seat like Ryan swinging much different to the overall state swing is pretty low.”

Isn’t that what happened in Ryan last time?

There is clearly a swing to the ALP in parts of Ryan, but how much is not clear. I suspect also that there will be a big swing to Greens from disaffected LNP (who do not like Morrison). The Jane Prentice factor will not have entirely faded either.

This seat is a real toss up and one to watch. With only a 4% difference between Greens and ALP last election there is a real possibility that greens could edge ahead of Labor- IF the bulk of an anti Morrison swing amongst LNP goes Green.

As I see it the following need to be considered:
LNP; Simmons has been quite good as a local member and should gain a little more that the usual sophomore swing, however there is little doubt the LNP/Morrison is unpopular

ALP: running for a second time peter Cosser is well known, personable and working very, very hard.

Greens: are working hard in parts of the electorate but not in all of them. However they should benefit mostly from an anti Morrison swing. I am informed that their candidate is extremely good, whereas their last candidate was a lovely fellow, but not exactly dynamic. The demographics of this electorate as moving green as young professionals move in. Traditional ALP voters – even teachers/nurses can probably not afford to move into much of Ryan these days.

Maverick
Let me make a prediction . Assuming their is a swing against Librrals it will be to either ALP or too Greens not to both. What in effect are saying is that there will be a swing to both but the total swing to the Greens will be 4% greater than that to ALP.
Are you really saying that you think the swing against the LNP will be a landslide in Ryan.
I have already said back 3 months ago that the Greens were working hard in Western Suburbs. Hard input does not necessarily reflect in greater output. Ryan voters have a lot to fear from high taxing governments especially in an era of higher interest rates. A 1% in crease on interest rates is going to be a substantial reduction in standard of living for a Dink couple and even bigger impact on single incomes. This same 1% increase will be bite less on those who already Oeen their home. In fact there are substantial numbers in Ryan where that 1% is extra income. Those with assets are unlikely to vote to have the benefits of higher interest rates eroded away by higher taxes.
Ryan will remain a Liberal seat and any leftwards swing will be minimal.
I am visiting 4 open gardens in electorate today so will keep my eyes peeled.
I can still remember the Brian O’brian DLP candidate who worked the electorate very hard for multiple elections in a 1960’s and was rewarded with one of the lowest DLP votes in the state.
Voters determin their ballot paper order either tribally or by self interest. Ryan is a safe Liberal seat.

Internal Polling (from the LNP?) reported by the Courier Mail today apparently shows this seat is in danger alongside Brisbane, Longman and Leichardt. I don’t have a subscription so I’m relying on the newest post on PollBludger and cannot determine the conduct of the poll or how reliable it may be.

John Howard was in Ryan, with the local member, it was where he made those comments about housing affordability. They aren’t sending an 83 year old man around the country for a whim. If Howard was here, that would suggest that the Liberals are getting worried about this seat.

Labor aren’t putting any effort into Ryan so Cossar is working awfully hard because he has next to no campaign funding. Probably going to be like Higgins on the night.

The Greens are more likely to gain this than Labor so Labor probably figured it’s better for them to divert their resources into other QLD seats like Longman where they don’t have to compete with the Greens. The Greens seem to be putting quite a bit of effort.

Ryan S

Not so. The seat has recently been identified as a target seat and funding increased. A 7% swing is possible, because Qld does do that ie big swings. If there were such a swing it would depend just where the LNP votes go- to Labor or the Greens.

Andrew

No I am not saying that there will be a huge swing in Ryan, but there is a swing on. 6% is a very, very big call, but not impossible, given Qld habit of wielding baseball bats- first to Anna Blight then to Campbell Newman and indeed to Gillard and Shorten.

If there is such a swing, I have no idea if it will go Labor or Green, but I think it will be shared. The leafy suburbs will tend to swing Green – as will the inner city trendies. Looking at Ben’s four regions, Indooroopilly already has Greens higher than the ALP. I would expect this trend to be repeated with knobs on in the trendy areas of Bardon and Milton ie much of the area listed under The Gap. However in the three big booths at the Gap I would expect the swing to be mostly to ALP. This will be even stronger in the Enoggera section which is still usually traditionally ALP. It has not yet gentrified – but this will start soonish.

The big question for me is just what will the LNP voters of the western region do? Will they stay solid, swing ALP or Green.

In the journey home I spotted 1 Green Corflute that I missed on journey unto electorate this morning.The house that I visited in Bellbowrie has received two pamphlets one Liberal and one Australian Labor Party which would appear to have been delivered by a commercial delivery service on same day. So in effect no political party has the support on the ground to deliver leaflets. Both leaflets were negative spending more space attacking each other than outlining own policies.

My imression remains a Liberal plurality with ALP coming second and if Libs do not win then Greens will elect ALP.

The Greens are definitely out there and campaigning hard and have been for longer than others from what I can tell. Cossar too but dont think for any where as long or in anywhere same numbers. Certainly wouldn’t be writing them off just yet. Incumbent has relatively little to say about loads of things educated Ryan demographic is interested in. The greenwash doesn’t wash either imo.

Mark
It depends on just where in Ryan. The Greens have been active in their heartland but less so in the Northern areas.

According to pollbludger The Australian is reporting that the LNP are now concerned about losing this seat to Labor, interestingly not the greens.

Xenu
Read my 6:20 30 April Comment. Without a plll I can predict the same result as LNP have paid tens of thousands to get.

The Australian report a lot of things. An invisible ALP candidate won’t win here.

@Xenu, according to a more recent post from William Bowe (Pollbludger), insiders from both Labor and the Coalition are saying that Ryan is “in danger” of falling to the Greens: https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/08/sundays-best-mackellar-poll-queensland-and-victoria-state-of-play/

I dunno if anyone’s mentioned it yet but the Liberal Democrats have a pretty visible presence here for whatever reason. Not sure if it’s about Campbell Newman or saving Julian Simmonds but for whatever reason, they’re putting in a pretty serious effort.

Absolutely true Furtive. Huge effort by the LDP

I think you will find that is more due to the Lib Dem membership and networks being located in this area of Brisbane.

The YouGov MRP poll has the Greens in both Ryan and Brisbane only 1% behind ALP in first-preference votes, making these legitimate 3-corner contests. In Griffith the Greens look like they will find it difficult to overcome ALP’s much stronger support, more similar to the 3-way contest the Greens face in Macnamara – or Wills and Cooper.

Like his Liberal colleague Fiona Martin, Julian Simmonds has been forced to apologise and withdraw ads claiming that he was politically endorsed by a public figure, when in reality they merely sent a letter of appreciation for his work. Except for Simmonds it happened twice this week, first from a local Catholic priest and then from a prominent military veteran.

basically every single Liberal in a marginal electorate is doing that. It’s very obvious that the strategists at Head Office have been giving marching orders to MPs that they need endorsements from charities and community groups as a talking point to survive the election, given that most of them don’t have any policies that the majority of their constituents actually like.

SEQ Observer, that 1% can be wiped away with the AJP and Progressive preferences to the Greens in front of Labor. So while the AJP deciding to preference Labor above the Greens, Labor’s recent very public refusal to ban live export is likely to mean AJP voters put the AJP 1 and Greens as 2.

Honestly, only see Higgins, Ryan and Brisbane as possible Green gains this time around, with the other Labor seats being contested after a term of Labor Government

SEQ Observer, that 1% can be wiped away with the AJP and Progressive preferences to the Greens in front of Labor. So while the AJP deciding to preference Labor above the Greens, Labor’s recent very public refusal to ban live export is likely to mean AJP voters put the AJP 1 and Greens as 2.

Honestly, only see Higgins, Ryan and Brisbane as possible Green gains this time around, with the other Labor seats being contested after a term of Labor Government

A lot of Labor MPs and candidates have been making the claim that the only way to change the government is to vote [1] Labor. That includes Labor’s candidate here, Peter Cossar. They’ve even got *signs* in Ryan saying it, now.

It is of course quite… silly. And obviously only being done because these are seats that the Greens have the potential to win.

The 2019 gap between the ALP and Greens was 3.3% in Ryan and less than 2% in Brisbane. There can be absolutely no doubt that there is a big swing towards the Greens, but it is unclear if it will be sufficient to catch up with the ALP. In Ryan, one of the state seats is already Green (Maiwar) and another got very close last election (Cooper). One is narrowly ALP (Ferny Grove) and another solid LNP (Mogill).

Now to win Ryan there needs to be a 6+% swing away from the LNP. My gut feel is that there is a swing on, most of which is going Green, but I doubt that it will be quite big enough to unseat Simmonds, nor will the Greens bridge the 3% gap with the ALP (but it will definitely narrow). However the Greens candidate is way more active than the one they had in 2019, the activity of the member in Maiwar certainly helps the Greens, plus of course the demographic trend.

Even Moggill doesn’t look “solid LNP” anymore, though on balance, the LNP only hold five Greater Brisbane seats.

What happens when all the low-information voters take heed of this really lazy advice and only put 1, omitting their order of preferences of the others on the ballot – turning all of their votes informal?

I think campaigns need to be really cautious of this “Vote 1” messaging because it might confuse electors in jurisdictions that have had (or currently have) optional preferential voting in their state elections.

@Matthew

Its not ‘silly’ its smart strategy. Labor knows if they focus on a Labor vs Liberals contest and ignore the Greens the Greens become less relevant. That’s why the Greens are whingeing about it.

Labor ahead 55 -45 in Ryan according to a poll. A Labor source suggested the polls over estimated Labor support in Ryan.

Apparently though Labor are starting feel their in with a good chance in Ryan and are sending Penny Wong to campaign this week.

https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/election-2022-polling-shows-shock-results-for-five-crucial-seats/news-story/bc3fc65292021b6f3f87c0282fa5c748

Political Nightwatchman, it’s silly because it’s a barefaced lie. The Greens have pledged not to back the LNP into power, so voting Greens 1 is equally a vote for changing the government. If truth in political advertising laws existed, the message would fall afoul of them. That’s why the Greens are “whingeing”. I think they have every right to, just as Labor would no doubt complain if the LNP said “the only way to avoid a death tax is to vote 1 LNP”.

I am prepared to accept the 55/45- just- but I am quite sure that the Greens will exceed ALP on the prepoll vote (unless late voters swing ALP). So we could see something like a 35% LNP, 25% ALP, 25% Green and 15% other. 3 way split 40/30/30.