Ryan – Australia 2022

He may not be the best performer in parliament but I don’t see Labor or the Greens taking this seat in the current circumstances. It is clear there has been a trend in this seat and Moggil and Maiwar away from the liberals but that won’t be enough for them to lose it in 2022. I can see Labor under Chalmers making this dead heat but as long as Albanese is leader they can say Adios to this seat. I agree this is more vulnerable than Petrie,Forde,Bowman and Bonner

LNP hold with around the same margin

@Daniel
What do you see in Chalmers that make him some “great white hope”?. How many % is he worth, & where.? Or conversely how much of a drag is Albanese in minus terms, or numbers.? Not easy to quantify i know. I’ll update my assessment of Chalmers on the Rankin thread.
Simmonds is one of the new pro political operatives. An uninspiring monochromatic formula robotic, predictable ” team player”. Simmonds gives a special meaning to the often quoted saying by my friend Rankin “teams are the refuge of the weak”!! Pollies like Simmonds almost make me a subscriber.

When i look at such an average, as in mediocre , achiever /performer personality type (3) i feel quite uneasy, & apprehensive of the future. There is literally nothing this bloke wouldn’t do to win, because everything is transactional, & sublimated for efficiency. He is a typical representative of the current literal epidemic of this personality type (3) in politics.
Simmonds had better have proven me wrong & found/created some personal following, appeal, & vote. It appears he will lose around 20000 voters from the west of Ryan, & get 20000 from the west of Brisbane. Ryan may well end up more marginal than Brisbane. Next redistribution wise.

Agree that Simmonds will probably hold it, but no way is he keeping the same margin. I’d be shocked if there’s no swing against him in pretty much every booth north of Chapel Hill at least.

Good chance the Greens beat Labor for the 2PP spot, for whatever that’s worth.

Fascinating that this is seat is now less safe than Bonner, Petrie, Forde, and seats in regional Queensland that were competitive during the Rudd-Gillard years. Guess it just shows how much things have changed over the past decade.

Is it fair to say that the correlation between socioeconomic status and Greens vote is particularly pronounced in Brisbane?

Not solely about that but the Greens’ biggest growth is among inner-city renters. More and more young people are being priced out of the property market and the Greens are really the only major party trying to appeal to them on this issue in particular. The LNP’s housing policy, in contrast, is explicitly in favour of homeowners and inflated house prices, while Labor, as usual, are ambivalent. Max Chandler-Mather has a video on youtube about this sort of stuff but frankly I think his projections about the party’s growth prospects are wildly optimistic.

Furtive Lawngnome
“Not solely about that but the Greens’ biggest growth is among inner-city renters. More and more young people are being priced out of the property market and the Greens are really the only major party trying to appeal to them on this issue in particular.”

Oh Wow this will just be sensational !. What Exactly are the Greens doing on Housing , that is so helpful, & is dealing with the issues ? This i have to hear. I have heard much complaint, whining, blame, judgement, preaching, lecturing, & dissembling nonsense. Can’t recall any solutions, new ideas, or constructive suggestions. Guess i must be ill informed?
Housing affordability is a subject very close to my heart, so by all means enlighten me.

the greatest rise in the Green vote has been in wealthy privileged largely elite suburbs, & electorates, Mostly blue ribbon liberal, like mine. it would be way to attribute this to climate change catastrophism.

will stay liberal….. never alp held

You can look at Jonathan Sri’s vacancy levy he proposed in council, Amy MacMahon’s private members’ bill that would cap rental increases, give renters the right to keep pets except if the owner applies to QCAT and gives demonstrable reasons why they shouldn’t and prevents no-grounds evictions, or the fact that they’ve consistently promised the most on building new public housing at pretty much every level of government in recent elections (and spoiler: it’ll be a major plank in their federal platform this time as well). Compare to the Coalition’s policy on negative gearing and sacrificing superannuation for home purchases and lethargy on new public housing construction, and Labor running the line that ending no-cause evictions is somehow a breach of the human rights act.

I’m not sure exactly what fantasy you’ve constructed for yourself about Greens voters but like I said before, they’re increasingly young adults whose take home pay is being chewed up by five, six hundred dollar rents every week, or who flat out can’t afford their own places and are having to live with their parents well into their twenties and thirties. Their weekly income and share of the national wealth has never been lower compared to any other generation of Australians since, well, pretty much ever. Many are increasingly giving up hope of ever owning their own home. And they’re increasingly voting for the Greens because of it.

What is the Greens’ position on negative gearing and capital gains tax? Do they have one?

They ran on dismantling negative gearing in 2019. I don’t know if they’ll do that again this time and I don’t know what their capital gains policy is. Pretty sure they haven’t announced either way. If I had to guess I’d expect them to emphasise their income and wealth tax policy for the upcoming election, but that’s just a guess

I’d say most of the change in this seat is gently demographics-driven. It’s culturally more and more progressive relative to the rest of the state but still wealthy. That’s a big part of the 2016 vs 2019 change; this is much more a Turnbull seat than a Morrison seat.

Meanwhile on the left, Labor are running the same candidate as last time so not a radical change; they have bigger targets elsewhere. It’s also clear that the Greens are again prioritising Griffith, so I’m not sure how much change there will be in the 3CP – but they saw solid swings in the core of the seat in the council and state elections last year, and much of the electorate is very door-knockable, which suits them.

I would say the spirits of the Greens in the area are running high after a very strong result in the state seats of Maiwar and Cooper. I think it’s plausible that this is the cycle that the Greens overtake Labor in the 3PP.

I expect the LNP will see a swing against them in QLD, and a slightly bigger swing in city seats, but with sophomore surge I don’t expect Ryan to be a seat realistically in play.

In these sorts of areas ALP > GRN preferences are stronger than the reverse.

P sure that’s not true Ryan. Inner city ALP and Greens voters are much more likely to preference each other than elsewhere in the state, and the best result for ALP > Greens flows was in Maiwar incidently, which is mostly coterminous with federal Ryan. Nonetheless, the 80% ALP > Greens preference flows in Maiwar only really matches the Greens > ALP state average for Queensland. I don’t know what Maiwar’s Greens > ALP preference flows were like, but given Miller’s were over 90%, it’s probably a fair bet they were pretty close to 90% as well.

https://antonygreen.com.au/minor-party-preference-flows-at-the-2020-queensland-election/

From another Antony Green article:

‘Green preferences: There were 70 two-party contests where Green preferences were counted out. In all 70 seats, preferences favoured Labor, in total 80.1% flowing to Labor, 19.9% to the LNP. Preferences were above 80% in 28 districts, reaching 90.1% in Miller. Green preferences also flowed 75.8% to Labor from a much lower Green vote in three contests versus One Nation. Overall these preference flows were slightly stronger than at the 2017 election.’

https://antonygreen.com.au/analysis-of-the-2020-queensland-election-result/

Pretty safe bet that Maiwar was one of those 28 seats.

The thought of someone who votes Green but prefers the Liberals over Labor is very strange to me. What’s the typical profile of such a voter?

On the other hand, a Labor voter who prefers the Liberals over the Greens is much easier for me to imagine.

@Nicholas

Perhaps someone who likes lower taxes and a freer economy but is socially progressive? And is more passionate about social issues?

Agree, Some Green voters are quite affluent and probably see the Labor party as a working class party. Sometimes the term “Teal Greens” is used to describe these people as opposed to “Red Green” who blend socialism and Green politics. Maiwar is a different seat from South Brisbane. Maiwar was always well off unlike South Brisbane which was historically working class. The something can be said about Green voters south of the Yarra River in Melbourne and in areas like Jagagaja which are have always been more middle class.

“Perhaps someone who likes lower taxes and a freer economy but is socially progressive?”

You’ve made me realise that an answer to my question is me, potentially. It seems that when talking about psephology, I sometimes discount myself. I remember when Berejiklian became NSW Premier, I was weighing up between all six permutations of Labor/Liberal/Greens.

At the federal level, the Liberals are just too far towards the conservative side for me to consider preferencing them above Labor. But if they move back towards the centre (I’m not expecting that to happen at all), that might change.

On the ground I believe the Greens are very energised in Ryan and have been door knocking feverishly.

In 2019 the difference between ALP Green was just over 3% before the greens at 22.3%. 82% went to the ALP but nor sufficient to push Peter Cosser over the line. Now in the coming election I would expect a small swing to the ALP and a bigger one against the LNP. It is possible but no likely that the Greens will pull ahead of the ALP in which case I would imaging a higher share of ALP votes would go Green – perhaps adding a percent of so to the ALP/Greens side.

So if there was say a 5% swing against the LNP of which at least 4% landed with the Greens before the ALP then the Greens could get over the line. For the ALP to win they would need a 7% swing against the LNP of which 6% must land eventually with them on TPP.

The “blue greens” or tree tories per se are still as socially progressive as the rest of the Greens (hence why the party will survive for a long time) however the blue greens are a bit more economically logical than the socialists.
Seats like Ryan, Curtin, and the other ritzy & wealthy seats are full of them.

Ryan
Actually Ryan is fairly mixed. It includes some solid old style ALP communities.(keperra) some fairly solid but largely ALP suburban ones ones (Ferny Grove), some mixed suburbia (eg the Gap), some wealthy rural fringe, conservative with a green tinge (Brookfield), upper middle class with an academic/student overlay (Indooroopilly, St Lucia) and some typically inner city suburbs which are now very green eg Paddington. This is a seat where the location of the booths really matters. It stretches from full on inner city, through wealthy urban areas right our to farmland and horse country and also north into battler territory.

I’d imagine the “Liberal Greens” are the types of people who’d vote for the old Democrats in a past life.

i.e. they grew up voting Liberal or at least in that demographic, but are more socially liberal than the mainstream Liberal party. They still see the Liberals as representing them better overall, but have specific social-based issues that they disagree with them on.

@Mark Mulcair

Pretty much that – also the sort who vote Lib Dem in the UK.

Scott Morrison visited today for a very nice game of cricket and media fluff piece (looked to be at Fenwick Park, which is popular with politicians, presumably because of all the cars going past on Samford). Julian Simmonds was in tow and I only figured out who he was by the way he was meekly trailing ScoMo for handshakes. I didn’t see Trevor Evans anywhere.

Point being, and maybe Morrison will be in town for a bit longer, but it speaks to where the Liberals are feeling most vulnerable in Brisbane.

I guess you could also read it as Morrison being a drag in Trevor Evans’ seat…

Surprised, or maybe not so, that the PM’s first Qld visit is to Ryan. Might The Greens have the incumbent rattled perhaps? They seem to have been running a very active campaign during this year with a well credentialed candidate who has been talking about issues the government seems reluctant to go near… climate, integrity, women’s equity and safety, local manufacturing, purpose built quarantine facilities… Interesting too to see a local ‘Voices of’ movement mobilising in Ryan. Cant help wonder whether Greens might have nabbed the kind of high profile candidate Voices of Ryan might have like to have seen come forward.

Didn’t even know these people operated in Queensland, but Voices of Ryan’s twitter account had this to say:

‘[THREAD]

We had a great chat this weekend with Greens’ candidate for Ryan, @EWatsonBrown
. We heard about her priorities for Ryan and emphasised our interest in seeing a representative in Canberra who will put the interests of constituents ahead of party HQ and donors. #RyanVotes

‘We talked climate change, transparency and integrity, and improving our political culture, as well as mental and dental health, public housing, and innovative approaches to address the infrastructure challenges of our broad and diverse electorate. #RyanVotes

‘These insights into the Greens’ policies will be invaluable as we help the voters of Ryan understand their choices in the upcoming election. We have reached out to all declared candidates, seeking similar meetings with them. And will keep you updated. #RyanVotes’

Surprised they’re at least considering backing an existing Greens candidate over running their own ‘independent’. Wondering how it’ll go down with the party members though. I’m sure most are happy to neutralise a potential rival, and even happier to get access to those sweet Simon Holmes bucks, but she’d have to reassure them that she won’t be compromising party policies for Voices support. As some of you know, Queensland Greens are very left-wing and won’t take kindly to a sellout.

SHaC did donate to Adam Bandt’s campaign, so he does have some form. But does he really want to leave himself open to the attack that his independents are a front for the Greens? I suppose the government are going to make that accusation anyway to sandbag their vulnerable seats.

I feel like the Voices movement will do what they’re likely to do in Higgins (given the Greens have a chance of winning there as well) and that’s not jeopardise the Greens’ chance to make the crossbench swell.

There is no way Ryan falls out of LNP hands. This seat is leafy green and may be in danger post-2030, but with a young operative-style local member who champions moderate policies and is likely to get a sophomore swing, there’s no chance for the ALP or Greens.

Simmo’s a campaigner, I’ll give him that, but his upside is pretty limited. He’s only got a “single” sophomore swing to call on in any event, and a quarter or so of his personal vote is already baked in to the results (i.e. from Walter Taylor ward).

He absolutely has to burnish his moderate credentials too, but I’m not sure how much good that really does (other than not making things worse for himself) given we have such strict party discipline in Australia. If he, for example, spends a lot of time talking about the importance of the environment, isn’t he just foregrounding his opponents’ core issue?

Does he even have moderate credentials? Literally the only thing I know about him is that his branch ousted Jane Prentice in favour of him for, among other things, the perception that she was too moderate.

Simmonds is only moderate in the sense he says something about renewable energy now and again. Online, he has been wheeling out the Peter Dutton scare campaign on China repeatedly, and demanding new legal restrictions on social media, which he claims is for children’s safety. So he comes across as just a standard LNP member.

Coalition paying $1.05 to win on Sportsbet, Labor $8.00. Despite the markets predicting a swing to Labor in some other suburban Brisbane seats, they clearly believe Simmonds has done enough to get a sophomore swing in his favour.

In addition to a sophomore surge for Julian Simmonds, the seat covers a generally conservative leaning area. Moggill, Kenmore and some of the other hillside suburbs are fairly affluent. A good analogue would be the North Shore area of Sydney between Chatswood and Hornsby (covering the federal seat of Bradfield).

I think part of the issue that the majors have here is that both Labor and the Greens have brought out candidates that are unlikely to make an actual impact against Julian. As an MP he hasn’t done that much but he looks like he’ll hold on. Labor have a returning candidate who gained less than half of the LNP’s losses and was beaten by three parties on a ranking of swings in the seat. The Greens have possibly the oldest candidate they could have come up with. Yes, she is a St Lucia local as an architect and has papers published with UQ, but surely getting a student at the Uni would have a greater pull amongst that area? I reckon we could see another LNP slide this election but Julian won’t be that scared.

Surely this is way less a chance of a Labor gain as opposed a Greens gain given it contains parts of Moggill, Maiwar and Cooper, which the Greens have an average overall of about 29-30%

I’m still confident Greens will beat Labor on preferences. As Ryan said they did very well in Maiwar and Cooper in 2020, and had less than a half a point swing against them in Moggill and Ferny Grove, in an election that was generally very, very good for Labor (and they didn’t put many resources in Moggill or FG anyway).

EWB is a pretty good pick imo. UQ isn’t the whole electorate and it’s not like Labor or the LNP has anything much sparklier and newer to offer. The vast majority of ‘the left’ vote near St Lucia campus is very used to voting Greens now. She has a strong campaign operation and, so far from what I can tell, has kept the younger party base on side. If there’s LNP votes to be nicked, it’s from older voters who tend to be more impressed by career credentials, ‘experience’ and so forth.

Chances are that Simmonds will still hold, though if he does, it’ll be one of the most marginal LNP seats in the state in 2025

SB’s odds for this seat are waaay out of whack with political reality. Same with Richmond. In both seats they’ve priced the Greens at $34, which pretty much indicates that they think they are no chance of winning either. I don’t know what the actual odds of a Greens win in either seat is, and I’m not suggesting they should be the favourites in betting or anything like that, but $34 is waaay too high. They’ve given the Greens better odds of winning Grayndler ($14) than they have here when they have no chance of winning Albo’s seat this time but quite a reasonable chance in both Ryan and Richmond.

@Ryan Spencer

I would be careful using state results as a barometer. There are state seats the Greens hold in NSW where the vote has not translated federally. I think the LNP hold, with Labor finishing in the final two party preferred vote. If Greens want to champion they will finish higher then Labor then good for them. There is not alot of confidence in them though listed at $34.00 on Sportsbet. While Labor would like to win it. I doubt there counting on gaining this seat to win government.

I think as mentioned factors such as Julian Simmonds receiving the sophomore surge. And voters getting over the backlash that he rolled previous member Jane Prentice will probably even out any swing against him from a possible state/national swing.

It was also mentioned earlier in the comments that Labor has never held Ryan. Wrong. They won it in a bye-election in 2001 with a strong Labor candidate in Leonie Short. Short only barely won it, and chances she probably would have lost it at the general election with some voters reverting back to the Liberals after a protest vote. But the Liberal party fortunes changed and when Tampa and 9/11 happened Short had no chance of retaining it after that.

Bookies really don’t have any more of an idea than anyone else. They’re mostly going off recent polls, latest election results and then adjust their odds as bets flow in. They rarely have much of an inside track. The odds for Greens winning in Griffith halved on sportsbet yesterday. Did anything much of note even happen to turn the tables? Of course not. It’s just that a ton of people started placing bets on MCM.

$34 for the Greens to win here – I’m taking that!

The seat of Ryan has been conservative heartland in Queensland for many years, but it is increasingly changing. It was one of only a couple of seats in Queensland where the Coalition margin went down at the last Federal election. It should be narrowly held by the coalition, but the Coalition vote will fall further making it a very marginal seat into the future. For those commentators saying that nothing is happening in Queensland in terms of seats , I beg to differ. There is an increasing sense that the last election results clearly overstated the Coalition’s margins in many seats. Seats such as Longman and Flynn are very much in play for Labor and Brisbane, Herbert and Leichhardt are increasingly on the radar. Labor should hold all its current Queensland seats.

I’m increasingly confident Labor or the Greens will take this seat. There is a swing of at least 6% pending and the uninspiring Simmonds is no King Canute. The tide will drag him down to the Centrelink office on the Monday after the election. Demographic change of politically-involved students, inner-city trendies and Labor’s increasing appeal to the professional class will see this seat in the ALP or Greens column. Morrison-drag will no doubt also contribute. Ryan will go the same way as Brisbane where Labor’s main foe will be the Greens in what will be a close contest.

Drongo – the only problem with that reasoning is that Simmonds is a first-term MP, so he’ll likely get a sophomore surge. The exact amount can vary, but it could completely counter the general 6% swing against the LNP.

Mind you, it’s by no means a given. It’s just something you should consider – last time, Simmonds was the guy that had forcibly replaced their sitting member on the ballot. This time, he’s their current incumbent.

Don’t get me wrong, I would prefer Labor or Greens take the seat (I have nothing particularly against Simmonds, but I’m not a fan of the Coalition), but I don’t think we’re quite at the point that one could reasonably be confident, for a 6% margin with sophomore factor. Unless Simmonds has done something that would draw personal backfire, I’d say Labor and the Greens still have a fair bit of work to do.

To defeat Simmonds, I’d say there are two paths. For Labor, it would be necessary to stay ahead of Greens, manage a 10% swing statewide (they’re at around that right now according to PollBludger, but that’s before the campaign, when things will tighten), and get a strong flow from Greens in preferences (not a given when some of the Greens voters are Environmental Liberals coaxed over by environmental issues). For Greens, it would be necessary to get ahead of Labor by pulling a substantial chunk of LNP voters over on environmental issues, and get a solid general protest vote from the minors.

My prediction is that it’s one of the marginals at the next election, running LNP vs Greens, but with LNP vs Labor 2PP also marginal. I’d guess a margin of 2-3%.

Shafted from the right and shafted from the left… don’t even mention greens… seriously, we know that repeating the same mistakes ain’t going to change the result in the end… So, I say forget about the bad, we tried the rest (ALP. NLP and Greens) so now try the best, independent get my vote. I want someone who is NOT a politician but is a problem solver, someone who will not stick to a party’s rigid doctrine but who will adapt to the issues we all face at times, in a dynamic way… An agile person basically who knows what real work is about, someone who loves RYAN environment and has lived there for a fair while and someone who won’t be easily pushed around by the usual suspects in Canberra… Definitely NOT ALP…. after what palaszuk has done to us, I would never vote labour, those people are even more dangerous than NLP!!!

Lol, imagine being deluded enough to think that the Liberal party has any chance of losing this seat…

Yep, maintain faith in the team & hopefully the tough decision made 4yrs ago is vindicated in May.

While Labor could get this it won’t be before Petrie.Forde,Longman,Bonner and Dickson go red (See my comment in Brisbane) The demographics are clearly going against the LNP here but as I said in my other post it is mainly due to the government’s shift to the right. When Turnbull was leader they got a big 9% margin here with the factionally moderate aligned Jane Prentice.

I can see Simmonds is trying to call himself a moderate by advertising that he believes in climate change. He may believe in it but his leader and party are doing a good job of it because they clearly haven’t shown they do and everything they are doing is pointing to climate scepticism and this is probably a reason why this seat is more vulnerable than it was previously.

This will come close but Labor shouldn’t be taking this more seriously than my seat of Petrie, they only need to look at the state results to prove that they can win my seat with the right policies. Ryan is much more difficult because after all because the Moggill electorate still leans LNP.