ALP 4.1%
Incumbent MP
Justine Elliot, since 2004.
Geography
Far north coast of NSW. Richmond covers Tweed Heads, Byron Bay, Ballina, Murwillumbah, Mullumbimby and surrounding areas. It covers the entirety of Tweed and Byron council areas, as well as the majority of Ballina council area.
History
Richmond is an original federation seat, and has always covered the northeastern corner of New South Wales, although it has contracted further into that corner over the last century as other seats have been created in northeastern NSW. The seat was consistently held by conservative parties from its creation until 1990, and was gained by the Country Party early in its existence in 1922, and they held it continously for almost seventy years.
Recently it has become a much more marginal seat, although the 2007 election result pushed the seat out of the marginal category.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist Thomas Ewing, who served as a minister in the Deakin government from 1905 to 1908 before retiring in 1910. His seat was retained by Liberal candidate Walter Massy-Greene. Massy-Greene went on to serve as a minister in Billy Hughes’ Nationalist governments, but lost Richmond to Country Party candidate Roland Green in 1922. He was appointed to the Senate in 1923, and served there until his retirement in 1938. He was relegated to the backbench during the Stanley Bruce government, but returned to the ministry as part of the Lyons government in the 1930s.
Green was regularly challenged by other Country Party candidates at subsequent federal elections. While the ALP stood in Richmond in 1925, Green was reelected unopposed in 1928 and faced opposition only from another Country Party candidate in 1929. At the 1931 election Green was challenged by three other Country candidates and one independent. He was regularly challenged by Robert Gibson at every election from 1928 to 1937. Green barely held on against internal party opponents at the 1931 and 1934 elections.
In 1937, two Country Party candidates and an ALP candidate all stood against the sitting Country MP. While Green came first on primary votes, Gibson’s preferences pushed Country candidate Larry Anthony ahead of the ALP candidate, and then ALP preferences gave the seat to Anthony.
Anthony served as a minister under Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden in 1940 and 1941 and was a senior member of the Opposition during the Curtin/Chifley Labor government. In 1949 he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet, and served in it until his death in 1957.
The subsequent by-election saw four Country Party candidates stand, although one clearly stood out, with Anthony’s son Doug polling 49.8% of the primary vote.
The younger Anthony joined the ministry in 1964 and was groomed to be the next leader of the Country Party, and upon Jack McEwen’s retirement in 1971 he became Deputy Prime Minister. The Coalition lost power in 1972, and Anthony returned to the role of Deputy Prime Minister upon the dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975. He served in this role throughout the Fraser government, during which time his party’s name changed first to the National Country Party and then to the National Party. Following the election of the Hawke government in 1983, Anthony retired in 1984.
The seat was retained in 1984 by Nationals state director Charles Blunt, outpolling a Liberal Party challenger and overtaking the ALP on Liberal preferences, despite Blunt having no local links with the far north of NSW. Blunt immediately moved to the shadow ministry and in 1989 managed to win a leadership challenge against Ian Sinclair. His leadership saw attempts to modernise the party and bring it closer to the Liberal Party, but Blunt’s leadership was cut short in 1990 when he lost Richmond to ALP candidate Neville Newell, who won a slim margin after a 7.1% swing. While the Nationals margin had fallen below 60% in the 1980s, this still saw a big jump in the ALP vote.
Newell held on in 1993 against a challenge from Nationals candidate Larry Anthony (son of Doug and grandson of Larry Sr) and a Liberal candidate. In 1996, Newell was defeated by the third-generation of the Anthony family. Newell went on to hold the state seat of Tweed from 1999 until his defeat in 2007.
Anthony was reelected in 1998 and 2001, although won by slim margins very different to the huge margins won by his father and grandfather. The 2004 election saw Anthony, then a junior minister in the Howard government, defeated by ALP candidate Justine Elliot, despite a national swing to the Coalition in a backlash against Mark Latham’s leadership of the ALP.
Elliot has been re-elected five times.
Assessment
Don’t be fooled by Elliot’s long tenure in this seat: it remains very marginal. In addition to the Nationals, the Greens have ambitions here. If they were to overtake Labor they would be in a strong position to win, but the gap is still quite wide.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matthew Fraser | Nationals | 36,979 | 36.9 | -0.8 |
| Justine Elliot | Labor | 31,807 | 31.7 | +0.7 |
| Michael Lyon | Greens | 20,384 | 20.3 | -0.1 |
| Hamish Mitchell | United Australia Party | 3,913 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Ronald Mcdonald | Sustainable Australia | 3,154 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Ray Karam | Independent | 1,566 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Morgan Cox | Christian Democratic Party | 1,338 | 1.3 | -0.2 |
| Tom Barnett | Involuntary Medication Objectors | 1,179 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 8,061 | 7.4 | +3.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Justine Elliot | Labor | 54,251 | 54.1 | +0.1 |
| Matthew Fraser | Nationals | 46,069 | 45.9 | -0.1 |
Booths have been divided into four parts. Polling places in Byron and Ballina council areas have been grouped together. Booths in Tweed, which cover a majority of the population, have been split between those in Tweed Heads and in the remainder of the council.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a majority of 54-55% in Ballina and the rural parts of Tweed Shire, and a massive 74.2% majority in Byron Shire. The vote was a dead heat in Tweed Heads, with the Nationals winning by four votes.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 13.2% in Tweed Heads to 43.7% in Byron.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Byron | 43.7 | 74.2 | 13,262 | 13.2 |
| Tweed Heads | 13.2 | 50.0 | 12,610 | 12.6 |
| Tweed Shire | 20.8 | 54.4 | 12,246 | 12.2 |
| Ballina | 22.2 | 55.1 | 8,426 | 8.4 |
| Pre-poll | 15.4 | 49.7 | 46,718 | 46.6 |
| Other votes | 18.6 | 50.7 | 7,058 | 7.0 |
Election results in Richmond at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals and the Greens.
Watson the reason for the major drop was because of a controversial candidate expect the or vote to bounce back. In 2025. Labor’s vote is in decline also and once it becomes Nat v GRN that Labor vote will split between left and right leaning voters who currently vote Labor since it is more centre
WW
A few points:
– the Nats endorsed a spectacularly bad candidate in 2023 contributing to a bad perfomance
– and LDP candidate was placed higher on the ballot paper and picked up some of that loss
– the Greens do not do that well in the northern ‘Tweed’ part of the seat – that could be their potential upside
– Byron Shire had remarkable growth in the 2016 -21 period, if the growth occurs elsewhere in the next few years, it will be in areas where the Greens don’t do that well.
– Peak Green has probably been reached in the Byron Shire areas – no upside there.
– There is a lot of development in the pipeline for the Tweed Heads area and this will be more suburban – more Labor or Conservative friendly than Green friendly.
Like many, you seem to have written the Nats off prematurely but like others I am of the view that the Libs need to have a crack again at this seat – ex urban voters may be turned off voting for the Nats. And just over the border, it has always been Lib territory. The next election will however be an ALP vs Greens battle.
@Redistributed you mean in 2022, right?
redistributed,
– the Nats endorse spectacularly bad candidates as their membership, in these parts, are mostly aged in their eighties and nineties. Their support base are from the same age group.
Nats spectacularly bad candidates include Ballina (2015, 2019 & 2023) and Lismore (2019 & 2023).
There were no LDP candidate in any of those contests.
Just over the border is the Divison of McPherson. It was held by the Country Party, from its creation in 1949, until 1972. The state seats on the other side of the border (South Coast & Currumbin) were held by the Nats until 1989. Some of the Gold Coast seats were held by the Nats into the early 2000s.
@WW explain why you think Ballina and Lismore had bad Nationals candidates? And explain why you think everyone on the North Coast who isn’t from Byron or a hippie town is an old white bogan? I grew up there (born in Queensland though) and I’m conservative but not a redneck.
@ Watson watch
I hear your point about the urbanisation. however it is important to remember that seats like McPherson, Fairfax and Fisher while more urbanised and no longer Nationals friendly have not benefited the Greens or Labor. Richmond is not an ultra left seat where the battle is between two left wing candidates in the 2CP unlike ultra left seats such as Cooper Grayndler Wills and Melbourne
@Nimalan urbanisation depends on the character of the area, and the house prices. In Fairfax and Fisher, urbanisation has resulted in the development of luxury beachside housing, which has brought in more wealthy people who vote liberal. However, when tradiditionally L/NP areas are urbanised and housing is more affordable for first homebuyers (standard suburban housing), you get an influx of Labor voting young families (e.g. Coomera and Caloundra at a state level). So urbanisation can work either way.
@ A A
You are 100% correct, i can think of other examples such as Mickleham, Clyde, Officer, parts of McEwen and Gawler (SA), Greater Springfield (QLD) etc where the shift from semi-rural township to outer suburbia has improved it for Labor. I agree during the next period of QLD state government Coomera will be heavily targeted by Labor. In the case of Richmond, my point was i think it is really Byron Shire and alternative lifestyle communities that has really hurt the Coalition if that was somehow taken out then it would be a much more competitive electorate the Nats still do ok in Ballina and Tweed Shire and without Byron Shire they may actually devote more resources but Byron Shire just swamps marginal territory in the rest of the seat.
Ballija is being won because it essentially a battle between left and right GRN v Nat with Labor in the middle sending preferences to the greens I reckon the Nat’s should give the libs a shot. Lismore is because of a popular local who use to hold the overlapping federal seat and I think will flip back after she retires of the next redistribution which will remove some Labor areas and less harderned Nat’s areas and put in some stronger Nat’s voters from clarence in 2031 which would get the Nat’s over the line especially since I doubt safgin will still be around. In regards to Richmond its why I suggested the libs throw in a candidate as with fpv it couldn’t hurt and may help the coalition
Nether Portal,
The ‘old white bogan’ comment wasn’t made by me. Must have been another poster.
I though you said you grew up near Port Macquarie, not in Richmond. Did you also live in Richmond?
Ballina and Lismore had bad National Party candidate due to the Party having very members left in those seats, and those members that are there are elderly.
The NSW National Party used to choose candidates by each branch in the electorate sending delegates to a preselection meeting. For state electorates, each branch sent branch chairman, plus one delegate for each 25 members or part thereof. Each Young Nationals branch was allowed one delegate. In the 1990s, due to falling membership, this was changed to a vote of all party members in the electorate. As the membership continued to fall, the National Party tried community preselection, where anyone on the electoral roll in that electorate could vote in the preselection.
Ballina 2015 – the candidate had only recently moved to the area and didn’t connect with the community.
Ballina 2019 – the candidate was a member of the Liberal Party who lived in Sydney (Milsons Point IIRC). He had no connection with the area. On his first day of campaigning he went to the seat of Clarence.
Ballina 2023 – The candidate had mainly worked in banking and finance in Sydney. He had only lived in the Northern Rivers for a couple of years before being preselected.
Lismore 2019 – The Nationals held a botched community preselection. Use google if you want to know more.
Lismore 2023 – The candidate was a former army officer from near Tenterfield. He would have been a good candidate around a century earlier.
Given the Labor vote dropped in a year when Labor swept to power nationally and made modest improvement in nsw I’m marking this a Labor loss. Labor will likely not make the 2cp and finish 3rd. Elliot only has about 3% on the greens so if 1.5% switches from Labor to greens she will be out. The Labor vote is the lowest it’s been in nearly 25 years since when the independent ran in 1990 and unlike her the greens aren’t going anywhere. After that you have to go back to 1966 to find a lower Labor vote. In my opinion this will be lost to Labor forever. Even if she can somehow hold it in 2025 she would lose in 2028 but I think she will likely retire then.
@John to the Libs/Nats or the Greens?
I do agree that Justine Elliot probably as one term more at best her vote has been dropping, i think she will be happy just for one more term.
@np difficult to say. Could go either way. The coalition would definitely benefit from being in opposition it will depend where that Labor vote goes. Could be a tight contest. If the libs contested and made the 2cp I’d back them in since they would capture some of that centrist Labor vote similar to how it broke in the NT I would say. With both Ballina and Tweed shires out numbering the people in Byron I would give them strong odds if it was against nationals maybe if you look at the voice referendum it broke 56-44 against. Given they were on a joint ticket in the senate ballot paper it’d be worth calculating preferences on a 2cp from that? Or maybe calculating from the 2010 election if libs made the 2pp instead of the nats?
@nimalan I can’t see how she survives 2025 tbh given there is always a swing against the incumbent govt and she simply doesn’t have any votes to spare..
Nvm about the preference flows from 2010 I already worked that out she would of won regardles
Assuming the other votes broke to the nats instead of Labor they would need to about 1/3 Labor votes to break their way to win if they could knock the combined labor/greens votes down to say <50% they would have a shot
The fact that is voted against the voice makes me think it wouldnt elect a greens member over a liberal asno other green seat nor green target voted against it meaning its still socially conservative enough to vote for the coalition over the greens
@John
Ballina and Tweed Shires voted “no”, while Byron Shire voted “yes”. The strong “no” results in Ballina, Murwillumbah, Casuarina, and Tweed Heads outweighed the strong “yes” results in Byron Shire and Lennox Head.
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2023ref/Results/HR.htm?s=Richmond
@ian yes and I’d wager they would outweigh the greens vote too especially if it were a lib candidate. Nats I’m not so sure
Interesting to note that Liberals have been elected to Tweed Shire Council. Surely that must provide a springboard for the Libs to run in both Richmond abd Tweed.
If you read my guide to the Tweed council election you’ll see that they first got elected as official Liberals in 2008. They got two elected in 2021.
They won’t be allowed to run in Tweed as it’s designated as a nats seat and currently has a sitting member. And with opv in nsw they won’t run both at a state level but it costs them nothing to run in richmond. I rode through Richmond on a bus today on my way home from Brisbane. You can see the wealth divide between Byron and ballina easily. You can also see the nats have next to no shot at winning Richmond vs Labor and probably won’t ever win Ballina again so ,maybe they should the libs ago at that. In regards to Lismore that’s problem still good for the nats once panelled saffin retires. The presence of SCU probably helps her. In regards to richmond it seems like the Tweed and zballina lgas would be ripe for the picking for the libs and would have a shot at unseating elliot
im curious about these alternative lifestylers. what is it they do that makes them about to afford to liv here?
John
They might have moved to the Byron area in the 1970s or 80s when it was still cheap – like buying that terrace house in ‘undesirable’ Redfern or Newtown – and are now sitting on a valuable asset. Or they are well off city types with alternative lifestyle tendencies who throw it in, sell up in the city and live it up on the proceeds. Be interesting to see what happens when the original 70s era settlers sell up. Most likely in places like Nimbin you have to take on the ethos of the place before you would want to buy in.
i wouldnt mind building a holiday house there when i get the $
Based on the results in both Brisbane and Ryan in an lib vs grn contest I reckon the libs would easily win Richmond given that this is more regional and the fact they would get more Labor preferences then in those 2 division s being inner city divisions an the fact you can assume the whole nats vote or close enough would peel their way. Once justine elliot is removed entirely a lib should easily hold off the greens here
With the greens losing support and Elliot on the slide in recent years this could be the opportunity the coalition has been waiting for to regain this seat
I’m saying Labor retain, with an average swing against them though provided the Nationals preselect the right candidate this time.
@NP I agree it will be labor retain on a reduced margin if the only the nats run but a I’d give the liberals good odds if they put up a candidate