ALP 4.1%
Incumbent MP
Justine Elliot, since 2004.
Geography
Far north coast of NSW. Richmond covers Tweed Heads, Byron Bay, Ballina, Murwillumbah, Mullumbimby and surrounding areas. It covers the entirety of Tweed and Byron council areas, as well as the majority of Ballina council area.
History
Richmond is an original federation seat, and has always covered the northeastern corner of New South Wales, although it has contracted further into that corner over the last century as other seats have been created in northeastern NSW. The seat was consistently held by conservative parties from its creation until 1990, and was gained by the Country Party early in its existence in 1922, and they held it continously for almost seventy years.
Recently it has become a much more marginal seat, although the 2007 election result pushed the seat out of the marginal category.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist Thomas Ewing, who served as a minister in the Deakin government from 1905 to 1908 before retiring in 1910. His seat was retained by Liberal candidate Walter Massy-Greene. Massy-Greene went on to serve as a minister in Billy Hughes’ Nationalist governments, but lost Richmond to Country Party candidate Roland Green in 1922. He was appointed to the Senate in 1923, and served there until his retirement in 1938. He was relegated to the backbench during the Stanley Bruce government, but returned to the ministry as part of the Lyons government in the 1930s.
Green was regularly challenged by other Country Party candidates at subsequent federal elections. While the ALP stood in Richmond in 1925, Green was reelected unopposed in 1928 and faced opposition only from another Country Party candidate in 1929. At the 1931 election Green was challenged by three other Country candidates and one independent. He was regularly challenged by Robert Gibson at every election from 1928 to 1937. Green barely held on against internal party opponents at the 1931 and 1934 elections.
In 1937, two Country Party candidates and an ALP candidate all stood against the sitting Country MP. While Green came first on primary votes, Gibson’s preferences pushed Country candidate Larry Anthony ahead of the ALP candidate, and then ALP preferences gave the seat to Anthony.
Anthony served as a minister under Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden in 1940 and 1941 and was a senior member of the Opposition during the Curtin/Chifley Labor government. In 1949 he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet, and served in it until his death in 1957.
The subsequent by-election saw four Country Party candidates stand, although one clearly stood out, with Anthony’s son Doug polling 49.8% of the primary vote.
The younger Anthony joined the ministry in 1964 and was groomed to be the next leader of the Country Party, and upon Jack McEwen’s retirement in 1971 he became Deputy Prime Minister. The Coalition lost power in 1972, and Anthony returned to the role of Deputy Prime Minister upon the dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975. He served in this role throughout the Fraser government, during which time his party’s name changed first to the National Country Party and then to the National Party. Following the election of the Hawke government in 1983, Anthony retired in 1984.
The seat was retained in 1984 by Nationals state director Charles Blunt, outpolling a Liberal Party challenger and overtaking the ALP on Liberal preferences, despite Blunt having no local links with the far north of NSW. Blunt immediately moved to the shadow ministry and in 1989 managed to win a leadership challenge against Ian Sinclair. His leadership saw attempts to modernise the party and bring it closer to the Liberal Party, but Blunt’s leadership was cut short in 1990 when he lost Richmond to ALP candidate Neville Newell, who won a slim margin after a 7.1% swing. While the Nationals margin had fallen below 60% in the 1980s, this still saw a big jump in the ALP vote.
Newell held on in 1993 against a challenge from Nationals candidate Larry Anthony (son of Doug and grandson of Larry Sr) and a Liberal candidate. In 1996, Newell was defeated by the third-generation of the Anthony family. Newell went on to hold the state seat of Tweed from 1999 until his defeat in 2007.
Anthony was reelected in 1998 and 2001, although won by slim margins very different to the huge margins won by his father and grandfather. The 2004 election saw Anthony, then a junior minister in the Howard government, defeated by ALP candidate Justine Elliot, despite a national swing to the Coalition in a backlash against Mark Latham’s leadership of the ALP.
Elliot has been re-elected five times.
Assessment
Don’t be fooled by Elliot’s long tenure in this seat: it remains very marginal. In addition to the Nationals, the Greens have ambitions here. If they were to overtake Labor they would be in a strong position to win, but the gap is still quite wide.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matthew Fraser | Nationals | 36,979 | 36.9 | -0.8 |
| Justine Elliot | Labor | 31,807 | 31.7 | +0.7 |
| Michael Lyon | Greens | 20,384 | 20.3 | -0.1 |
| Hamish Mitchell | United Australia Party | 3,913 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Ronald Mcdonald | Sustainable Australia | 3,154 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Ray Karam | Independent | 1,566 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Morgan Cox | Christian Democratic Party | 1,338 | 1.3 | -0.2 |
| Tom Barnett | Involuntary Medication Objectors | 1,179 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 8,061 | 7.4 | +3.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Justine Elliot | Labor | 54,251 | 54.1 | +0.1 |
| Matthew Fraser | Nationals | 46,069 | 45.9 | -0.1 |
Booths have been divided into four parts. Polling places in Byron and Ballina council areas have been grouped together. Booths in Tweed, which cover a majority of the population, have been split between those in Tweed Heads and in the remainder of the council.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a majority of 54-55% in Ballina and the rural parts of Tweed Shire, and a massive 74.2% majority in Byron Shire. The vote was a dead heat in Tweed Heads, with the Nationals winning by four votes.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 13.2% in Tweed Heads to 43.7% in Byron.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Byron | 43.7 | 74.2 | 13,262 | 13.2 |
| Tweed Heads | 13.2 | 50.0 | 12,610 | 12.6 |
| Tweed Shire | 20.8 | 54.4 | 12,246 | 12.2 |
| Ballina | 22.2 | 55.1 | 8,426 | 8.4 |
| Pre-poll | 15.4 | 49.7 | 46,718 | 46.6 |
| Other votes | 18.6 | 50.7 | 7,058 | 7.0 |
Election results in Richmond at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals and the Greens.
@niamlan yes but the liberals dont need to exclusively run for richmond they can run alongside the nationals candidate. i would wager anything they would still poll some primary and strip some of that from greens.labor and the overal 2pp should they finish ahead of the nats would it be enough to win richmond i dont know maybe not but it costs them nothing to try. figurivitely speaking ofc
@redistributed yes im aware of that but im asking and have actually suggested that they run here in richmond. yes it is a gentlemans agreement that they wont run in seats where there is a sitting member as they would effectively be runnign against themselves. at a state level they have desginated seats due to OPV. Port macquarie was the exception to this as it was considered a nationals seat and the sitting member switched allegiance and that ended up being a lib v nat on the 2cp. i think its time the libs have a go at ballina as the nats arent making any ground. though they were running from govt not opposition so 2027 may tell how far gone thaat seat is
As a regional-born bloke, I feel like I must intervene.
The Coalition does not like running two candidates in regional NSW. In Port they did it because Leslie Williams changed from the Nationals to the Liberals, so the Nationals preselected Mayor Peta Pinson, but Williams was still easily re-elected and Labor/Greens got bugger all votes like always. In 2027 I highly doubt it will be another three-cornered contest.
If Gurmesh Singh (National) resigned as the member for Coffs then the Liberals might consider running in that seat. Same goes for if Geoff Provest (National) resigns as the member for Tweed. However, Clarence, Myall Lakes and Oxley would remain Nationals seats, and they would continue to contest Lismore. Ballina could possibly have one turn of a three-cornered contest to see who gets the most votes, but then again in a situation where there is only one Coalition candidate, a Liberal voter will vote National and vice versa, they wouldn’t be voting for Labor in that case unless there was some I
miraculously weird circumstances surrounding it and even then in safe seats it wouldn’t really matter TBH.
If independent Joe McGirr resigned in Wagga then maybe another three-cornered contest could occur, the Libs might be behind the Nats due to a larger rural, agricultural scene as opposed to a more coastal regional/rural area (with lots of agricultural industries but also more fishing, tourism, etc) which is more Liberal, but Labor preferences still might elect a Liberal in Wagga. Some Nationals voters in Wagga might be voting for the Nats not because they hate the Libs, Speakman, Perrottet or Gladys (all three are well-liked in NSW) but because Daryl McGuire was a corrupt wanker who dated Gladys, bullied her, Gladys didn’t dob him in because of the bullying, McGuire resigned after an ICAC investigation and Gladys had an ICAC investigation, resigned as Premier and from Parliament all because of this “investigation”. So really my guess is that voters in Wagga Wagga were angry that McGuire stabbed Gladys in the back and abused his power as the member for Wagga.
I’ve heard a few questions about the Greens vote in random regional areas (given regional areas are usually conservative-leaning) and although I’ve never lived in a Greens-voting area (as I’ve said before I grew up near Port Macquarie which is in a very Coalition-leaning area), however I can say a few things from my general knowledge and my tourism knowledge.
If a regional town has a high Greens vote, it’s probably an alternative lifestyle community full of hippies. Often the area will have different Greens to the ones in the inner-city though and other micro parties do eat into their margins, as well as the major parties as the alternative lifestyle communities decrease (in Elands in Lyne the Nationals’ TPP increased significantly as Elands has become less hippie; Elands was one of the only booths in Lyne where Labor had a majority of the TPP and the only one with a Greens vote above 15%). So the locals in these towns obviously have high proportions of anti-vaccination views, vaccine hesitancy, anti-fluoridation, pro-alternative medicine, environmentalism, NIMBYism, recreational cannabis usage, etc. They aren’t the Adam Bandt-style Greens of the inner-cities, they’re more like RFK Jr. in America. So if the town of Mullumbimby (in Richmond) was in the US then it would be voting for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (the Democrat-turned-independent environmentalist and lawyer who is known for his vaccine skepticism; even though he says his kids are vaccinated he still promotes BS about MMR vaccines and autism and COVID-19 vaccines and government plots and stuff).
The reason I’m putting this here is because this seat seems to have an abundance of these communities.
I’ve found a few rural towns where a plurality of the voters there voted for the Greens as their first preference in 2022.
In New South Wales: Elands (Lyne), Nimbin (Page), Tanja (Eden-Monaro) and Wollombi (Hunter), plus of course heaps of towns in Richmond (Byron Bay, Lennox Head, Mullumbimby, Murwillumbah, etc).
In Victoria: Airleys Inlet (Wannon) and Winters Flat (Bendigo).
In Queensland: Beechmont (Wright) and Maleny (Fisher).
In Tasmania: Woodbridge (Franklin).
I know some like Elands are hippie towns but some of them I don’t know. Can anyone confirm if these are all hippie towns or is there another reason they vote Greens?
Aireys Inlet is not a hippie town in the true sense. It is, however, very much an environmentalist and socially progressive town. It is a sea change/tree change town surrounded by national park and ocean. People choose to live there for that reason. It is also an artistic town, a tourist town and a surf town. Many retired academics live there as do many current staff of Geelong’s Deakin Uni and Epworth Hospital, both a relatively short commute away. These are all characteristics that favour a high Green vote, which can also be seen in neighbouring towns.
Winters Flat is in Castlemaine and the Green vote is high throughout Castlemaine and neighbouring villages. A major tree change destination very popular with former inner north Melbourne residents. Again very much environmentalist, socially progressive and artistic.
@WanderWest oh okay makes sense. Anyone know anything about Coral Bay in Western Australia? Seems that there was a high Greens vote there too.
Coral Bay is a key town for accessing Ningaloo Reef and was the centre of the community struggle against the development proposal. It’s a great family camping town with a wonderful bakery.
Maleny is absolutely a hippie town and has long been one of the most antivax towns in Queensland, but I don’t think committed antivaxxers really lean particularly Greens these days.
@ Wander West
There are some other interesting examples such as Lavers Hill, Gellibrand River, Forrest in the Otways. It would be interesting if this impacts the electorate of Polwarth going forward. There is natural barriers to population growth in these areas so it is population replacement.
I think it is to be expected that different groups may vote for the same political party, after all the Liberals receive votes from both corporatists and social conservatives, and Labor receive votes from both social liberals and blue-collar union members.
i still think the libs should put up a candaidate
@ Nimalan
Those Otway towns are quite a bit different to Aireys. Logging battles in the 90s saw quite a few activists settle in those towns and they’ve also experienced a bit of an ecotourism boom in recent years.
Polwarth has definitely seen solid growth for the Greens in recent elections. Any redistribution that sees the electorate contract east (focusing more on the Surf Coast) will benefit them. The main Surf Coast booths are currently a three way split. Both Labor and Libs went backwards in Polwarth last election. If the Greens are ever to pick up a lower house seat in regional Victoria, Polwarth (or any future seat based on the Surf Coast) is likely to be it.
@ Wander West
Thanks for your insights. I am wondering if you think those Otway towns will continue to strengthen over time for Labor versus Libs TPP even if we assume for argument’s sake the boundaries dont change much? These town’s TPP is not as strong as Aireys i accept the Greens may outpoll Labor someday in these areas. The issue is that unlike Torquay where there is new housing estates in these small towns we need to wait for an older conservative resident to move out before a younger more progressive resident moves in due to limited housing supply so it may take longer for a demographic change to occur.
I would also watch for Bass Coast shire to see a sea change demographic move in.
@Nimalan
We’re talking pretty small towns here, 100-200 voters each, so all it really takes to change the vote profile is for one family to move in and another move out. These towns are pretty remote too, so while they do have small primary schools and tourism economic bases they are probably still more likely to attract retirees or people wanting to work remotely in a isolated location, rather than young families. They are beyond Geelong’s commuter belt. Plenty of the older folk in these towns are the progressive voters too, especially if they were forest activists 30-40 years ago or the ones operating ecotourism businesses, organic farms etc.
The National vote will probably make some sort of recovery given the massive slide in 2022 which will ensure they remain in the 2CP, though it’s very unlikely they win – it’s shaping up to be a Labor vs Green battle to get ahead or stay ahead of one another on primaries. Labor need to make sure they stunt any growth in the Green vote especially in weaker areas for the Greens like Ballina and Tweed, whereas the Greens need to keep taking votes particularly off Labor, especially in the Tweed but also in Ballina where they made substantial progress in 2022. I don’t think there is much room for the Greens to grow in their “base” areas like Byron and Mullumbimby anymore given they are already polling 50% primaries. Growth will need to come from Tweed and Ballina.
@ GPPS
For the Greens to win they need Labor to slip to 3rd place which is possible and for the Nats to remain in the 2CP. If it is a Green Versus Labor then Labor will win. Ideally. if the Nats do well it will help the Greens if Labor loses more centrist voters around Tweed/Ballina. In a good year i think the Nats can do well but not win it as Byron Shire has a thumping leftwing vote and swamps the rest of the electorate
Justine Elliot’s strategy seems to revolve around winning and consolidating the centrist vote. For example, some of the content on her Facebook relates to a road duplication, youth crime action, a lot of anti-Greens rhetoric, seniors forums. This indicates that Labor do not appear to be making much of an effort to win back Greens voters here.
@Nimalan I agree. But I doubt the Greens would win either. (Been a while since you’ve commented btw).
this will be labors as long as justine eliot is around and the libs dont put up a candidate. shes consolidating the centrist vote as this isnt a nationals seat anymore and without a centre right candidate the centre left will always win. once she goes it will be greens v nt contest. thats y im continuing to argue for a lib candidate as wellas a nat
@John I have doubts that the Greens will ever actually win this. The Greens win booths in Byron Bay and are making inroads around Ballina but they still finish third in Tweed Heads. The Liberals should run INSTEAD of the Nationals since the Liberals already contest the Tweed Shire Council. I think Geoff Provest will be the last Nationals member for Tweed; after him the Liberals will contest it and win it. Labor might win it again in the future but not at the moment.
Interestingly federal Labor have held Richmond since 2004 while the state Nationals have held Tweed since 2007. The state Greens have held Ballina since 2015.
@NP also agreed while it looks like it on paper i imagine she has a pretty good personal vote that the coalition can nab when she retires however they need to offer a centre right candidate instead of just the nats every time. with FPV the votes would come bak to the nats or libs any way so i reckon its worth a shot. the same for Hunter and Whitlam
NP, I assume Optional Preferential Voting greatly assists the Coalition in Tweed at state level (and in Ballina/Lismore until a decade ago).
@mark we’re talking at a federal level where there is FPV and no sitting coalition member it would only make sense to put up a liberal candidate
I was referring to the comment about the Nationals holding Tweed in recent times.
Is Justine Elliott even all that popular? Her primary vote has gone down in every election except 2007 and 2019 since she was first elected. The Labor primary has gone backwards 7% in that time.
Yes the seat has improve on the TPP, but that seems largely to do with the area trending leftward.
Looking at primary votes in this seat is very misleading. Nats finished 3rd here with 23.35% but actually won the 3CP with 35.63%. A large chunk of the minor party vote was very happy to preference the Nats. Seems hard to think they’d go a full 2% worse than 2022 for them to miss the 3CP.
@Drake yes but the Greens vote increased by 12.90% since 2004 when Labor won the seat from the Nationals and by 20.67% since 1993 when the Greens first contested the seat.
@Drake you are indeed correct but it is worth noting that the Nationals candidate wasn’t a good candidate and made controversial comments in the past and is part of the Christian right. She even lost in places like Banora Point (a suburb of Tweed Heads) which has always been the most conservative part of Tweed Heads (it’s a middle-class suburb with a large population of families and retirees). The Nationals vote dropped by over 20% in Banora Point (mostly going to Labor and the Liberal Democrats, the latter most likely due to the name confusion). It’s similar to how, say, Katherine Deves in Warringah did even worse than Tony Abbott in places like Mosman which are blue ribbon and would’ve been still won by someone more moderate like Dave Sharma.
As a Liberal member I’m glad the Liberal Democrats changed their name to the Libertarian Party because even though they overwhelmingly preference the Coalition it still caused confusion.
@NP ive made the suggestion to the liberals to put up a candidate in richmond and hunter lets hope they listen
@John not sure about Hunter but Richmond yes. And the redistribution will determine whether or not Cowper will get a Liberal or National candidate since the incumbent member (Pat Conaghan) is from Port Macquarie.
@NP PM will remain in cowper
@np Paterson could be interesint to tbh i dont know why they just run a candidate each i mean it costs them nothing to try
T other things that will help the coalition is that a future redistribution would take in coalition territory or shed Ballina first. Though that won happen this time as it’s at quota and it’s a corner seat so there won’t be any need this tome
3CP in 2004 when Justine Elliott first got elected
GRN: 15.17
ALP: 36.82
NATS: 48.01
3CP in 2022, in brackets swing in 3CP since 2004
GRN: 30.92 (+15.75)
ALP: 33.45 (-3.37)
NATS: 35.63 (-12.38)
3CP in 2007, which was a similar high-tide Labor election
GRN: 16.14
ALP: 44.97
NATS: 38.90
3CP swing since 2007
GRN: 14.78
ALP: -11.52
NATS: -3.27
Labor doesn’t have much room left for their 3CP to go down. They’ll have to try and improve their vote here now to win.
The Nationals primary vote could pick up next time. The Liberal Democrats changing their name to Libertarians and they would be extremely lucky to have their name top of the ballot for the second election in a row, and thus confusing Coalition voters.
Richmond is perhaps the original Coalition seat, or seat with the Coalition coming first, that became a Labor seat and has stayed a Labor seat thanks to a growing Greens vote.
@NP, I’m not sure why you’re doubtful the Greens can win here. The 3CP margin between Labor and the Greens is only 1.3% on 2022 boundaries. If this isn’t enough to make a seat winnable, than your list of marginal seats must be very small! The only way I can see this becoming uncompetitive for the Greens is if there is a drastic change to the boundaries.
If parliament were to expand this would be a certain greens gain. Though I reckon the greens will pick it up before then. They will give it a red hot go in 2025 and if they don’t get it then they will most likely pick it up in 2028 at the latest. Though she is getting on and I reckon she will probably retire in 2028 as the old guard rushes for the door as they do when an election they know they’re going to lose is coming up and they don’t want to be in opposition for the rest of their career. She’s been there 20 years as of Oct 9th. Dreyfuss will go by that election too iff not sooner as he’ll be 68 in oct. Can someone do a chart of the list of ages of both houses, Np?
this will be a certain labor loss in my opinion. elliots primary vote is way to low to withstand any more loss and will probably be overtaken by both a upwards trending greens vote and a recovered nationals vote. and if the libs were to put their hats in the ring also that would certainly put her out of contention. so im stating that the next election will be a GRN v NAT or LIB contest.
I think Justine Elliot if lucky may hang on in 2025 but she will be last Labor MP for Richmond. Interestingly, when Labor won it for the first time in 1990 they only won 26% Primary vote. There Greens will certainly make the 2CP by 2028. I think Josh Burns will be last Labor MP for Macnamara/Melbourne Ports, Michael Danby was predicted to be the last but the collapse in Liberal support allowed Burns to be elected and now he relies on tactical voting from Jewish Liberal Voters to stay ahead of the Greens which are now close to making the 2CP. I doubt Josh Burns will survive beyond 2028 as well.
@nimalan back then there was no greens vote and since then it has only increased and will most certainly eclipse hers on current trends and the nats vote will recover after being lost because of a controversial candidate in 2022 and so that why im saying shes gone in 2025 but if she somehow manages to scrape into the 2pp it wont be by much. im not sure who will out of the greens or libs/nats but im willing to bet this will be lost. in regrads to macnamara im sure in a labor vs greens contest they will continue to hold it. as the libs will not preference the greens due to their recent antics and antisemitism.
@ John
in 1990 it is just curiosity but there was a prominent independent named Helen Caldicott who narrowly missed on the 2CP. She was Anti-Nuclear today she would be a Green if she ran. I agree the Coalition vote may recover so i am not dismissing that part at all i am just saying if she remains in the 2CP she will win even if the Coalition vote recovers just because Labor will get a better preference flow. In 2004 Larry Anthony got 46% of the primary and still Lost Richmond as Labor got a much better preference flow. It seems the Nat candidate lost votes mainly to rightwing minor parties rather than Labor or Greens so i am in agreement with you her long term future is not bright. Regarding Macnamara i agree the Libs will not Preference the GRN if it an ALP V GRN count but if it it LIB V GRN then Greens will certainly win and Liberal preferences will not make a difference.
@nimalan agree that the nats wont beat labor on a 2pp because the greens flows are way to high but in a greens contest there is a chance because this is not a normal inner city division where labors preferences would still flow strongly given its a rural division and the fact she has a decent personal and centrist vote flowing towards her taking her out of the mix would split that centrist vote right and left and if the libs were in the mix they could capture that centrist vote. and agree on macnamara becuase the labor vote would split strongly enough to greens. even though the local member is a strong advocater against anti semitism. though he he could stil lose in 2025 as well.
Richmond has undergone massive urbanisation, it is simply not the same seat which was held by 3 generations of the Anthony family.In the medium to long term this area will not be within the grasp of the national party. I cannot guess how the greens will go.. at the state level Tweed will be out of the national party reach
Left out eventually in the
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@ John
I agree with your analysis. I think for the Coalition it may actually be good for the Greens to be elected initially and Labor gives up. The Centrist vote may then be available for the Coalition with no sitting member and Labor not bothering to campaign. As GPPS said above Justine Elliot seems to be focusing on the centrist vote. With Macnamara the best hope for Josh Burns to retain against the Greens is if it becomes a GRN V ALP contest, Labor cannot stop the rise of the Greens among Non Jewish voters who are typically young renters and irreligious, a growing demographic in Macnamara, so it is probably the case that the Greens will eventually make the 2CP.
@mick in a greens vs nationals contest which is the most likely outcome they would be competitive because there is still a high enough vote across ballina and tweed. but in a lab v nat they obviously are a bit conservative wheras labor is more centre which is why the nats cant win which is why i suggested the libs should contest it in regards to tweed the nats will claim it until such a time they lose the seat in regards to ballina they wil never beat the greens until the member retires or the greens do something serious
john,
A Greens vs National contest in Richmond is highly unlikely.
The National Party voters are mainly people who grew up when the Anthony and Budd families were considered royalty in these parts. These people are dying of old age.
@ Watson Watch if the GRN knock out ALP out of the 2CP then it will be a Greens v National contest and at a state level Tweed is held by the Nats there only needs to be 1.3% swing to Greens from ALP for this to happen.
@watson not true the nats (conservatives) vote is strong in both ballina and tweed but the greens (soicalist/hippie) vote is strong in byron bay. labor being the only centrist party is capturing the moderate centrist voters and then having greens get them over the line. the labor vote has slowly deterioated over the last 20 years and the greens will soon over take them in the 2pp count at which time it will be a grn vs nat contest and the labor vote will split left and right.
The National Party vote is declining because their support base is dying of old age. All of the people born before WW1 are gone and the people born before WW2 are a rapidly declining group.
The National Party will soon be knocked out of the 2CP count.
In 2022, the National Party vote in Richmond was just 23.35% (down 13.51% from 2019).
In the 2023 NSW state election, there were also large declines in the National Party vote.
Ballina – 30.4% (down 7.0% from 2019)
Lismore – 27.9% (down 11.2% from 2019)
Tweed – 43.89% (down 3.66% from 2019)
I expect Tweed to change parties when Geoff Provest retires at the next election – just like what happened in Ballina and Lismore when Don Page and Thomas George retired.