ALP 4.1%
Incumbent MP
Justine Elliot, since 2004.
Geography
Far north coast of NSW. Richmond covers Tweed Heads, Byron Bay, Ballina, Murwillumbah, Mullumbimby and surrounding areas. It covers the entirety of Tweed and Byron council areas, as well as the majority of Ballina council area.
History
Richmond is an original federation seat, and has always covered the northeastern corner of New South Wales, although it has contracted further into that corner over the last century as other seats have been created in northeastern NSW. The seat was consistently held by conservative parties from its creation until 1990, and was gained by the Country Party early in its existence in 1922, and they held it continously for almost seventy years.
Recently it has become a much more marginal seat, although the 2007 election result pushed the seat out of the marginal category.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist Thomas Ewing, who served as a minister in the Deakin government from 1905 to 1908 before retiring in 1910. His seat was retained by Liberal candidate Walter Massy-Greene. Massy-Greene went on to serve as a minister in Billy Hughes’ Nationalist governments, but lost Richmond to Country Party candidate Roland Green in 1922. He was appointed to the Senate in 1923, and served there until his retirement in 1938. He was relegated to the backbench during the Stanley Bruce government, but returned to the ministry as part of the Lyons government in the 1930s.
Green was regularly challenged by other Country Party candidates at subsequent federal elections. While the ALP stood in Richmond in 1925, Green was reelected unopposed in 1928 and faced opposition only from another Country Party candidate in 1929. At the 1931 election Green was challenged by three other Country candidates and one independent. He was regularly challenged by Robert Gibson at every election from 1928 to 1937. Green barely held on against internal party opponents at the 1931 and 1934 elections.
In 1937, two Country Party candidates and an ALP candidate all stood against the sitting Country MP. While Green came first on primary votes, Gibson’s preferences pushed Country candidate Larry Anthony ahead of the ALP candidate, and then ALP preferences gave the seat to Anthony.
Anthony served as a minister under Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden in 1940 and 1941 and was a senior member of the Opposition during the Curtin/Chifley Labor government. In 1949 he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet, and served in it until his death in 1957.
The subsequent by-election saw four Country Party candidates stand, although one clearly stood out, with Anthony’s son Doug polling 49.8% of the primary vote.
The younger Anthony joined the ministry in 1964 and was groomed to be the next leader of the Country Party, and upon Jack McEwen’s retirement in 1971 he became Deputy Prime Minister. The Coalition lost power in 1972, and Anthony returned to the role of Deputy Prime Minister upon the dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975. He served in this role throughout the Fraser government, during which time his party’s name changed first to the National Country Party and then to the National Party. Following the election of the Hawke government in 1983, Anthony retired in 1984.
The seat was retained in 1984 by Nationals state director Charles Blunt, outpolling a Liberal Party challenger and overtaking the ALP on Liberal preferences, despite Blunt having no local links with the far north of NSW. Blunt immediately moved to the shadow ministry and in 1989 managed to win a leadership challenge against Ian Sinclair. His leadership saw attempts to modernise the party and bring it closer to the Liberal Party, but Blunt’s leadership was cut short in 1990 when he lost Richmond to ALP candidate Neville Newell, who won a slim margin after a 7.1% swing. While the Nationals margin had fallen below 60% in the 1980s, this still saw a big jump in the ALP vote.
Newell held on in 1993 against a challenge from Nationals candidate Larry Anthony (son of Doug and grandson of Larry Sr) and a Liberal candidate. In 1996, Newell was defeated by the third-generation of the Anthony family. Newell went on to hold the state seat of Tweed from 1999 until his defeat in 2007.
Anthony was reelected in 1998 and 2001, although won by slim margins very different to the huge margins won by his father and grandfather. The 2004 election saw Anthony, then a junior minister in the Howard government, defeated by ALP candidate Justine Elliot, despite a national swing to the Coalition in a backlash against Mark Latham’s leadership of the ALP.
Elliot has been re-elected five times.
Assessment
Don’t be fooled by Elliot’s long tenure in this seat: it remains very marginal. In addition to the Nationals, the Greens have ambitions here. If they were to overtake Labor they would be in a strong position to win, but the gap is still quite wide.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matthew Fraser | Nationals | 36,979 | 36.9 | -0.8 |
| Justine Elliot | Labor | 31,807 | 31.7 | +0.7 |
| Michael Lyon | Greens | 20,384 | 20.3 | -0.1 |
| Hamish Mitchell | United Australia Party | 3,913 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Ronald Mcdonald | Sustainable Australia | 3,154 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Ray Karam | Independent | 1,566 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Morgan Cox | Christian Democratic Party | 1,338 | 1.3 | -0.2 |
| Tom Barnett | Involuntary Medication Objectors | 1,179 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 8,061 | 7.4 | +3.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Justine Elliot | Labor | 54,251 | 54.1 | +0.1 |
| Matthew Fraser | Nationals | 46,069 | 45.9 | -0.1 |
Booths have been divided into four parts. Polling places in Byron and Ballina council areas have been grouped together. Booths in Tweed, which cover a majority of the population, have been split between those in Tweed Heads and in the remainder of the council.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a majority of 54-55% in Ballina and the rural parts of Tweed Shire, and a massive 74.2% majority in Byron Shire. The vote was a dead heat in Tweed Heads, with the Nationals winning by four votes.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 13.2% in Tweed Heads to 43.7% in Byron.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Byron | 43.7 | 74.2 | 13,262 | 13.2 |
| Tweed Heads | 13.2 | 50.0 | 12,610 | 12.6 |
| Tweed Shire | 20.8 | 54.4 | 12,246 | 12.2 |
| Ballina | 22.2 | 55.1 | 8,426 | 8.4 |
| Pre-poll | 15.4 | 49.7 | 46,718 | 46.6 |
| Other votes | 18.6 | 50.7 | 7,058 | 7.0 |
Election results in Richmond at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals and the Greens.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/richmond2022/comment-page-1#comment-760776
But if those voters then preference the Greens ahead of the ALP and Coalition, which presumably many of them would, it matters only for electoral funding and political optics purposes as 3PP is what determines who gets through to the 2PP count.
Marko, perhaps so, but the preferences of those voters have to go somewhere. Labor, Nats and Greens will likely be the final three parties in the count, and they’re all in favour of vaccine mandates for healthcare workers and certain venues, to my knowledge.
The last one doesn’t technically exist as a political party, and I’m honestly not sure the first two will survive anyway.
A five-way contest between Labor, Greens, Liberal, National, and an independent would be a lot of fun!
There would a small leakage away from the greens so 3PP would decrease, also if enough voters did this, the anti- vaxx mandate candidate could beat the greens into the 3PP. In addition to this, as has been touched on earlier in this thread, some of these voters will vote informally.
I don’t think the anti-vax issue is as big as some are suggesting. Most Greens I know (I’m a member of the NSW Greens) are supportive of vaccination. There are a small number who aren’t but I think you’ll find that for most of them all the other issues will outweigh it. For example, the climate emergency hasn’t gone away and the Greens are the only party offering a policy based on the science that tells us we need a 75% reduction by 2030 if we are to avoid catastrophic climate change. Do you really think that an environmentalist Green supporter is going to switch their vote to Labor, the Coalition, or even the likes of UAP while they all have policies that will result in over 3 degrees of warming when we need to stay below 1.5?
The Greens being pro-vax isn’t going to make someone change to Labor or the Coalition when they are both pro-vax too. Voting for a party like UAP would be completely at odds with Greens values, so I don’t see many Greens flocking to Clive and co either.
I tend to agree with you Firefox. In all honesty, I think the amount of otherwise Greens voters who would switch their vote over this issue is small; it’s a matter of priorities, as you say.
That said, stranger things have happened. Don’t around ~ 20% of Greens voters regularly preference the Coalition?
There is already an endorsed anti vaxxer candidate in Richmond. The Greens anti-vax votes would no doubt go to them. Whether they come back is another matter.
Well I really don’t know what to think. I said months ago that I don’t know this seat, and I know Firefox lives here, but frankly I don’t find his posts particularly convincing (the party room, the membership and the party’s constituency are like chalk, cheese and chutney, and that goes for every party). Redistributed’s observations about the Senate vote are very interesting and lead a lot of credence to the Green/Labor vote being very soft. I suspect a lot depends on who’s organised an effective campaign team. I guess we’ll all find out eventually. It’d be cool to see some seat polling in the meantime.
When push comes to shove I reckon the small number of anti-vaxxers in the Greens will still vote for them. There’s just too many other reasons for them to do so. There could be a few who feel so strongly about it that they change but they will be offset by a few from Labor and the Coalition doing exactly the same thing. They’d probably come back around via preferences anyway. It’s the other issues where there is a big gap between the positions of the three major parties in the race (Greens, Labor, and Nats) that will cause the biggest movement I think. Climate change, economic inequality, Federal ICAC, asylum seekers, housing, healthcare, education, etc… These and more are the reasons people will continue voting Greens and why more and more people are moving to them.
Yeah the best argument in favour of this being a tempest in a teacup is that the issue itself is a tempest in a teacup.
Firefox, not sure if people are moving to the Greens – their federal vote in 2019 was still 1.6% off their peak in 2010, and in Tasmania, their vote is way off where it was in 2010 or so. The Greens do have a secure base – something the Democrats never had – but they do seem stuck in a rut of 10 – 11% nationally that they can’t seem to get out of – especially with Adam the Invisible as leader.
I would not be so sure if the Anti Vax thing is a storm in a teacup – especially in a region that was anti vax central even before Covid. Tempers seem to be rising. A family member lives in an area of Queensland that is not dissimilar to the Byron Tweed and the local medicos and pharmacists are sick and tired of being abused and some have had their vehicles vandalised.
Redistributed, I was talking about this particular campaign in this electorate. Mandy Nolan is an excellent candidate, is running a very strong campaign, and is well liked in the community. Yes, I am biased (which is why I disclosed that I’m a Green, but many of you know that already from PB lol) but in all honesty I can tell you that Mandy is running the best campaign I’ve seen in my time living in this seat. Certainly much better than last time. 2016 was ok but in 2019 we left our preselection far too late and our campaign here was pretty poor TBH. Totally different vibe this time around and much better preparation.
But more broadly, people are moving to the Greens for sure. In the last 30 odd years the Greens have gone from 0 voters to having 1,482,923 (2019). They gained positive swings in both houses at the last election and their vote continues to rise. I wouldn’t be underestimating Bandt either if I were you, he’s proved the critics wrong many times before, as have the Greens.
A little off-topic, but from my perspective I don’t really see the Greens as having much room to grow. I think the experience of 2010-2013 really killed any chance of expanding into the more ‘mainstream’ electorate. That said, they have an incalucable advantage that the Democrats did not; a vote concentrated enough to win multiple seats. Richmond, McNamara, Cooper, Wills, Sydney, Grayndler, Higgins and so on – all potentially winnable in the medium to long term.
The basic long term strategy of Bandt, and his factional allies in NSW and Queensland, is to usurp Labor’s traditional progressive base by repositioning the Greens as the left-wing/socialist party, to be what Labor used to be under the likes of Gough Whitlam in addition to the environmental party. Lofty ambitions to be sure. His short to medium goals are to focus on a handful of inner-city/alternative regional centres first with grassroots organising, secure a few wins, prove the party’s viability and build from there. It might happen. It might be a goer, or they may end up spinning their wheels like they have done throughout most of their history. But imo it’s the biggest obvious hole in the political market, and I don’t see any other viable means of growing their constituency.
I really think a lot of this fear on the side of the greens is over blown.
The case for Michael Lyons election as a massive swing from the anti-vax freedom movement seems to come from this particular Australian financial review article
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/unvaxed-ban-is-bullying-says-byron-mayor-20210910-p58qji
In it he states that he thinks that a vaccine mandate is bullying – which seems to be a fair enough indication of his sympathies – and the afr then states that there is a low vaccination rate in the region using this as evidence that Byron bay is “at the centre of anti vaccination movement in nsw”.
First taking on the point of the low vaccination rate of the area as an indicator of anti-vax sympathies – it seems that this is a faulty narrative. In this article https://www.northernriversreview.com.au/story/7446447/vaccination-lag-blamed-on-supply/
Healthy north coast coast CEO Julie Sturges, Michael Lyon and Mayor of Tweed, Chris Cherry have all stated that low vaccinations in the area are all primarily due to low supply rather than hesitancy with Cherry stating that “we took one for the team” and Julie reporting that “the Byron Shire allocation from the national stockpile was ‘quite low’ “, that “Local medical clinics report long waiting lists for the jab” and ” citing local surveys that show a vaccination willingness in line with national sentiment”
In fact, in this article, Michael Lyon himself states that he wants a vaccination clinic in byron – a rather pro- vax opinion. he also states that “While we are painted as anti-vax, it is clear there are still many residents wanting to get vaccinated who have not been able to access this easily”
Actually it seems that Lyon is rather on the other side of the covid equation. in the following two articles
https://www.echo.net.au/2022/01/byron-mayor-speaks-out-about-covid-testing/
https://www.echo.net.au/2021/12/michael-lyon-welcome-welcomes-return-of-masks/
He praises the high vaccination rates, mask mandates and criticises the NSW governments lack of rat tests. While admittedly he has been reluctant to encourage individuals to get vaccinated – it seems his view is that that will happen to an acceptable level naturally as the shortage is caused by lack of supply rather that hesitancy
Beyond that it really seems that vaccines are not really issue in Byron. Not a single candidate even has anything about the health response in their campaign policy, even the conservative Alan hunter.
It also seems that an anti vaccine candidate ran in 2019 and only got around 1% of the vote.
At any rate Michael was not the only person to gain at this election – Mark Swivel also experienced an 18% swing to him in alliance with both Michael and Labour. https://www.echo.net.au/2021/12/byron-councils-new-power-structure-and-what-it-means-for-you/
In fact I would suggest that is these results mean anything for anyone who isn’t green it would be for labour who lost only a third of their vote rather than more than half like the greens.
However even that line of thinking is challenged by the fact that Michael Lyons straight up endorsed Mandy Nolan for Richmond and the Greens federally and was quite sure to say he still follows their core 4 pillars .https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-02/comedian-mandy-nolan-runs-for-greens-preselection-in-richmond/13027624 https://www.echo.net.au/2020/09/greens-councillor-goes-independent/
While finally i am only seeing this from an outsiders perspective – I would say that the only person actually from Richmond supports my view
TLDR: The reason the greens lost big in byron and the most vaccine hesitant candidate supports many nolan anyway so who really cares.
@Wreathy
Every election, there are more voters from younger generations, and less from the oldest. Does this not benefit the Greens?
Also, I know people my age (early 20s) who once considered themselves Liberal supporters who now vote preference the Greens above the Liberals. Housing affordability is a huge factor.
Nicholas, whilst there is growth with new generations, some young people (namely Gen X and some early Millennials) may also change their vote allegiance over time and swing back from voting Greens towards Labor or the Coalition.
In addition, not all young people across the country are likely to vote for the Greens – those living in safe rural seats may well vote the same way as their parents and back the Coalition or other minor conservative parties.
Two points which I left out
1. On the case of mark swivel he seems like the labour leaning independent counterpart to Michael. He has described himself as labour leaning himself – yet he won double the swing labour lost – maybe this means a relocation to labour as Michael Lyons didn’t pick up the same amount of greens vote
2. I also agree that greens are definitely not the party to lose the anti-vax vote. While some in the libs are on the anti vax side of things they are also the party responsible for a number of vaccine mandates – including the one in this state. maybe labour is the ultimate loser which would actually be good for the greens as the greens need to overtake them become the “left wing” candidate.
@Yoh An
Previous generations moved towards conservative parties with age out of self-interest. Issues such as housing affordability mean that for many in my generation, it will still be in their own self-interest to vote for left-wing parties well into the future.
I also don’t see my generation going backwards on social issues.
Yes, sort of agree with the current generation of working age now being priced out of the housing market (myself to some extent being in the late 20s). If future elections see continued growth in Green vote (and possibly with the rise of new left leaning parties) then this will be a sign that young voters will not be inclined to change their vote allegiance.
Demography is not destiny. No one knows how or even if people will change their voting patterns in the future.
I tend to subscribe to the theory that the Greens do best when Labor is in power and disappoints the Left (or just ‘disappoints’ in general). In this context, 2010 as the high water mark would make some sort of sense.
So I think a more interesting comparison will be for the Green vote 2013-2019 to be compared to the Howard era, and for 2010 to be measured against the first election after Labor has been in government for a term.
@Mark Mulcair
Would one describe the current “small target” strategy of Albanese and the lack of spine from labour on many issues, most notably their stance on climate change (whether a warranted electoral strategy or not), as a disappointment for labours more progressive or left wing voters
Sextus
Albo has his hands tied because the Queensland and WA Labor governments have much more modest carbon reduction targets than the Libs in NSW, SA and Tasmania, or the Victorian and ACT Labor governments. The WA and Qld can’t be seen to be embarrassed whilst the Lib governments have said “Bugger the Libs in Canberra – we will just get on with it!”. As with so many things, the Queensland political optics drive the national political agenda. Remember also that the Palaszczuk government has done nothing to reverse the Newman Governments land clearing laws.
Hi Redistributed…
“There is already an endorsed anti vaxxer candidate in Richmond. The Greens anti-vax votes would no doubt go to them. Whether they come back is another matter.”
– where did you hear this information? Can you share any info about them?
Really enjoying everyone’s opinions here on this website.
On the informed medical options party website it shows that Monica Shepard, a local naturopath, is running.
They ran last time as the involuntary medical objectors party and got roughly 1% of the vote.
They also have climate change and a aboriginal traditional medicine thing going on. So are probably more in the vibe of this area than Palmer or Pauline
any insights into how the recent climate change driven floods may come into play here? Would this help the Greens or Labor.
it’ll definitely help the Greens- Labor already hold the seat so I’m not entirely sure they have any disadvantage anyway.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-16/liberal-upper-house-mp-to-quit-over-flood-funding/100914460
Safe to say the Nationals’ chances of picking up Richmond have evaporated.
Vice AU has done some really good reporting in the area in the wake of the floods, although some it’s obviously editorialising. But the short of it is that a) voters are incandescent with rage at the government right now, and b) long term issues about housing affordability and gentrification that have been off the political radar for years, not least during the local elections, are becoming more prescient than ever. If Mandy Nolan was to score an upset at the election, she and her team need to hammer CC and the housing crisis on doorsteps (or bunkbeds at community centres) like never before.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkpwvy/australias-flood-victims-wont-be-voting-for-scott-morrison
https://www.vice.com/en/article/dype4z/byron-bay-gentrification-australia-floods
https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvn3ka/how-the-devastating-floods-in-nsw-will-worsen-a-housing-crisis
Richmond MP spreading misinformation regarding preferential voting. She actually names the GRN candidate Mandy Nolan by name. Seems rattled.
https://twitter.com/JElliotMP/status/1505437473534787586?s=20&t=-cv8NYDMFAW12G5EHmp1Yg
tbf Justine Elliot pushes that drivel all the time regardless of how vulnerable or otherwise she’s feeling.
For sure one of the Greens best chances for a seat outside of Melbourne in the country. Still have doubts it will eventuate.
I foresee Labor shifting in front of the Nationals in First Preferences, particularly in the parts of the electorate with strong suburban characteristics like Tweed and Ballina. Both Tweed and Ballina are more demographically analogous to the Gold and Sunshine Coasts than the division’s renowned alternative lifestyle communities (Byron, Mullum, Bruns). Unfortunately for the Greens, I don’t foresee much further movement in the Greens vote. The Greens vote in Richmond is particularly well-established now and perhaps close to its ceiling.
The ongoing gentrification of Northern Rivers potentially isn’t going to help the Greens either. A lot of the sea-changers who migrated throughout the pandemic and paid remarkable amounts for dwellings in this region will likely bring with them fairly modest political attitudes and voting intentions (the two major political brands popular in Melbourne & Sydney).
Greens only hope is eclipsing Labor’s vote in this division to win a TCP contest with the Nats (unlikely) or a 4 way contest between the Liberals, Nats and Lab where each candidate receives ~20% of the vote each.
@SEQ Observer I think the Greens’ best chance of picking up a seat this election is in Higgins.
Any thoughts as to the potential impact of local (outgoing and outspoken) Liberal MLC Catherine Cusack’s endorsement of Mandy Nolan?
Definitely the Greens’ best chance in NSW. Such a strong campaign from Mandy Nolan. Tricky part is that I think Labor might do quite well here too. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nats margin got flattened in Page, the rage in the region about the flood handling is pretty strong.
Josh you are strong advocate for the Greens, but I can’t see this seat changing hands given the circumstances surrounding the flood response. I also think there will be a swing against the Coalition in the Northern Rivers, but it’s a big ask to see the Coalition being defeated in Page. I believe the Greens vote will increase in the Northern Rivers area of NSW.
The flood response isn’t really a positive for Labor, just a negative against the Nats.
Climate isn’t a vote winner for Labor either, as we know they are committed to making the climate crisis worse by continuing to back coal and gas.
Mandy is running a very good campaign. Think I said earlier in this thread somewhere that it’s the best Greens campaign I’ve seen for this seat in my time living here and it’s only gotten more impressive since.
Could either go Green or stay with Labor but I’m prepared to say that the Nats have pretty much no chance.
Could the Nats come third?
Yes, I think it is possible that, regardless of who end up winning Richmond, the political landscape could very well shift dramatically in the seat and it will become very much a Greens vs Labor contest, rather than being a three-way battle including the Nats as it has been until now.
I get the impression the Nats vote could drop a fair bit, both due to the floods but also because of their candidate’s extremely conservative views. Apparently even many Nats supporters are quite unhappy with the situation. It will be interesting to see where they go. Some will no doubt splinter off to PHON or the UAP, who are both running in the seat unfortunately, but many of the less conservative ones and those who take the climate crisis seriously could end up going Green instead.
The 3PP in 2019 was NAT 41.7, ALP 34.7, GRN 23.6
It’s obviously impossible to come 3rd if you are above 33.3 and even then the probability isn’t that high.
In the corresponding state seats the NATs have been losing ground enough to lose seats but not a precipitous loss of voteshare. In the 2019 state election we had a NAT incumbent in Tweed with a massive 47% primary, and while Ballina and Lismore on 37% and 40% won’t see the NATs reclaim the seats it’s nowhere near 3rd place.
Is it possible that this extreme housing crisis here (highest house and rent prices in regional Australia, no rentals available and no local council increasing housing supply to any real extent) AND with local incomes below state and national average… Is it possible that only the wealthy afford to live here? Will that shift the votes back to the Coalition (as wealthier suburbs in Sydney and Mel usually vote Coalition)…..
OR
Like the richest 7 electorates in the nation (Wentworth, N Sydney, Warringah, Mackellar, Higgins, Goldstein, Kooyong) – they are going from safe Liberal to potential /marginal seat independent/green winning some/many of those seats… Is there a chance an independent will one day take this seat of Richmond off all the major parties? Someone who like the Teal independents – has a social conscience, economic conservative, progressive etc??
“Is it possible that only the wealthy afford to live here?”
***
No, far from it. A large number of people in the Richmond electorate are doing it very tough, especially after the bushfires of 2019 and the recent floods, both of which devastated large areas. Then throw in two years of COVID – remember this electorate contains the main (Pacific Highway) border crossing from NSW to QLD and the residents of Tweed Heads were severely disrupted by all the necessary health measures. Even before all that, there was a massive housing crisis here with lots of people struggling to get by.
There is a relatively small number wealthy people who live in Byron, but to judge the entire electorate off that would be the equivalent of judging the whole of Greater Sydney off of Wentworth or somewhere like that. Most of those wealthy types only own holiday homes here anyway and don’t actually permanently live in the electorate.
Don’t let the name deceive you either – the electorate is named after a river/valley.
Prediction: Huge swing to Greens and away from Nats, leading to a long and messy postcount with an unclear exclusion order and people speculating about the preferences of minor anti vax party voters.
John, from your lips to God’s ears.
Well, the first bit anyway.
I don’t think the YouGov MRP is that good except in ballpark terms, and I think it might be pretty weak at picking up 3rd party in independent campaigning but the result in Richmond is notable enough to mention:
ALP 32
NAT 25
GRN 18
PHON 3
UAP 2
Other 20
Much higher “other” vote than I was expecting. Is there any particular strongest independent candidate this model might be picking up?
I doubt an independent could make the top 3, but if there’s a big bucket of votes the ideological bent of them would have a huge impact on how close the Greens could get.
(They would still need my theory of 3rd party campaigning being underestimated by this methodology to be true as well, a 14% primary gap is too wide for the Greens to exclude Labor).
The YouGov MRP poll has the Greens in Richmond at 18%. Questionably, the poll also has “Other” at 20%. Given that there are no high-profile independents or micro-party candidates listed on the ballot, this 20% is a bit of a head-scratcher. Perhaps Richmond electors were holding out for a climate-independent or just were undecided when pressed. Like observations made by pollsters in Brisbane, perhaps these electors who were intending to vote “climate-independents” will immediately opt for the Greens in light of their absence. This combined OTH + GRN works out as 38% but will probably more conservatively end up closer to 30%. ALP are expected to receive 32% on primary (same as 2019) and the Coalition are expected to receive 25% (-12% from 2019). Goodness knows who ends up in the 2CP contest and who wins given the 20% uncertainty. One to definitely watch on election night.
Does anyone know why the Greens vote is really, really high? What’s it like up there? I’m not looking for partisan answers like “Because they’re stupid/intelligent”.
Normally a small inland town or village would lean LNP. Even in small towns and villages in the Northern Rivers, Greens support is the same or higher than in some inner capital city electorates.
Votante I think the reason for the high green vote in some areas like Byron bay is these areas are known for having people who live alternative lifestyles (so called hippies) who are into things that the greens usually support. This is perhaps the same in some other rural areas like Noosa in qld and Margaret bay in WA which also record unusually strong votes for the greens