LIB 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Fiona Martin, since 2019.
Geography
Inner Western Sydney. Reid covers suburbs along the southern shore of Parramatta River from Drummoyne to Homebush Bay. It covers the City of Canada Bay and parts of Auburn, Burwood and Strathfield council areas. Major suburbs are Drummoyne, Five Dock, Croydon, Homebush, Strathfield and Burwood.
History
The seat of Reid was created for the 1922 election, while Lowe was created as part of the expansion of the Parliament in 1949. Reid had been held by either the ALP or Jack Lang’s Labor breakaway parties for its entire history, while Lowe had a history of alternating between the ALP and Liberal Party. Since the two seats were effectively merged in 2010, Reid has gone to the party of government.
The seat of Reid was first won in 1922 by Labor candidate Percy Coleman. Coleman was re-elected in 1925, 1928 and 1929, but at the 1931 election he was defeated by Joseph Gander, candidate for Jack Lang’s breakaway NSW Labor Party. Gander was re-elected as a Lang Labor candidate in 1934 before rejoining the ALP when Jack Lang reconciled with the federal ALP.
Gander was re-elected as an official ALP candidate in 1937, but in 1940 Jack Lang again split away from the ALP, but with less of his former supporters in NSW following him. Gander followed Lang out of the ALP, but lost at the 1940 election to official ALP candidate Charles Morgan.
Morgan held the seat until the 1946 election, when Jack Lang himself ran in Reid and defeated Morgan. Lang was a former NSW Premier who had led a breakaway Labor party in NSW on a number of occasions.
The 1949 election saw the creation of the new seat of Blaxland, and Lang ran in that seat unsuccessfully. Morgan regained Reid in 1949, holding it until 1958.
Charles Morgan was defeated for ALP preselection by Tom Uren before the 1958 election. Morgan ran as an independent, but was defeated comfortably by Uren.
Uren served as Minister for Urban and Regional Development in the Whitlam government. He served as a Deputy Leader of the ALP from 1976 to 1977, and became the leading figure in the ALP’s left in the late 1970s. He opposed Bob Hawke’s leadership and thus was excluded from Cabinet when Hawke was elected Prime Minister in 1983. He served as a junior minister for four years before moving to the backbench in 1987.
Uren retired at the 1990 election, and was succeeded by Laurie Ferguson, who had been the state member for Granville since 1984. Ferguson has held Reid since 1990.
Lowe was first created for the 1949 election, when it was won by William McMahon (LIB). McMahon was elevated to Robert Menzies’ ministry in 1951, serving in a variety of portfolios over the next fifteen years. Upon Menzies’ retirement in 1966 McMahon became Treasurer in Harold Holt’s cabinet.
When Harold Holt disappeared in December 1967 McMahon was the presumptive successor, but Country Party leader John McEwen refused to serve with McMahon as Prime Minister. McMahon withdrew and Senator John Gorton was elected leader and moved to the House of Representatives.
McMahon served as Gorton’s Foreign Minister, but challenged Gorton for the leadership following the 1969 election unsuccessfully. In 1971 McEwen retired and Gorton’s leadership was undermined by the resignation of Malcolm Fraser from the cabinet. Gorton called a party meeting, and the ballot was tied between Gorton and McMahon, which led to Gorton’s resignation and McMahon’s election as leader and Prime Minister.
McMahon led the Coalition into the 1972 election, and was defeated by Gough Whitlam’s Labor Party. McMahon served in Billy Snedden’s shadow cabinet up to the 1974 election, and then served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1982.
Lowe had been marginal for most elections during McMahon’s service, particularly since the 1961 election. He had only held the seat with a 1.1% margin at the 1980 election, and a swing of 9.4% swing saw Labor candidate Michael Maher win the seat at the 1982 by-election, one year before Bob Hawke defeated Malcolm Fraser at the 1983 election. Maher was a state MP for Drummoyne from 1973 until the 1982 by-election.
Maher was reelected in 1983 and 1984, but was defeated in 1987 by Bob Woods (LIB). Woods was reelected in 1990, and defeated in 1993 by Mary Easson (ALP). Woods was appointed to the Senate in 1994 and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government’s first year before resigning from the Senate in 1997 following allegations of abuse of parliamentary privilege.
Easson only held Lowe for one term, losing her seat in the 1996 landslide to Liberal candidate Paul Zammit, who had been a state MP for first Burwood and then Strathfield from 1984 until 1996. Zammit resigned from the Liberal Party in protest at aircraft noise in 1998 and contested the 1998 election as an independent, polling 15%. The seat was won in 1998 by the ALP’s John Murphy, who held the seat until 2010.
In 2010, John Murphy was re-elected in the redrawn seat of Reid, while former Member for Reid Laurie Ferguson moved to the seat of Werriwa.
Murphy lost to Liberal candidate Craig Laundy in 2013 with a 3.5% swing. Laundy was re-elected in 2016, and retired in 2019.
Liberal candidate Fiona Martin won Reid in 2019.
Assessment
Reid is a very marginal seat, although Martin as a first-term MP will likely benefit from a new personal vote.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Fiona Martin | Liberal | 45,288 | 48.3 | -0.5 |
| Sam Crosby | Labor | 34,872 | 37.2 | +0.9 |
| Charles Jago | Greens | 7,575 | 8.1 | -0.4 |
| Keith Piper | Christian Democratic Party | 2,335 | 2.5 | -1.6 |
| Rohan Laxmanalal | Animal Justice | 1,861 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Young Lee | United Australia Party | 1,797 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 6,119 | 6.1 | +1.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Fiona Martin | Liberal | 49,844 | 53.2 | -1.5 |
| Sam Crosby | Labor | 43,884 | 46.8 | +1.5 |
Booths in Reid have been split into three parts. “East” covers booths in the former Drummoyne council area. “South” covers booths in the Burwood, Strathfield, Cumberland and Inner West council areas. “North-West” covers booths in the former Concord council area and the Parramatta council area.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east (54.3%) and the north-west (54.4%) while Labor won 51.2% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 7.3 | 54.4 | 22,112 | 23.6 |
| South | 7.7 | 48.8 | 20,436 | 21.8 |
| North-East | 8.7 | 54.3 | 16,882 | 18.0 |
| Pre-poll | 7.8 | 54.8 | 22,153 | 23.6 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 53.9 | 12,145 | 13.0 |
Election results in Reid at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
I simply don’t see the evidence for claims that Reid is trending Liberal. The 1.5% swing to Labor in 2019, against the NSW trend, should be quite the datapoint against it. Meanwhile, Banks got a 5% swing to the Liberals.
It is true that Reid’s waterfront suburbs are gentrifying, but I would consider such places much more comparable to waterfront areas in the inner city and north shore, both of which have been trending away from the Liberals in recent times. I expect that Fiona Martin’s vote regarding religious discrimination, like Trent Zimmerman, is to shore up support in those areas, particularly since the rest of the seat does not fit such a demographic. On the whole, the seat is young and full of professionals, and comparisons to inner suburbs are much more fitting than an outer suburban seat like Banks.
I also do not think citing the high Liberal growth in the state electorate of Drummoyne from 2011-2019 is particularly relevant to gauging swings in federal voting intention from 2019-2022.
I think the “young professionals” demo might be somewhat oversimplified and exaggerated.
The largest new home owners group in Reid and subsequent knock-down rebuilds have been tradies not young professionals.
Drive down Majors Bay Road and Great North Road, and look at all the Tradies’ utes and vans that are parked in front of houses and driveways. Take suburbs like Cabarita and Mortlake that have had their DAs expedited. The growth of larger dwellings in Concord and Concord West is in large part due to blue collar tradies who have been extremely successful over the last decade and in large part vote liberal.
Move further down to Breakfast Point, which is for all intents and purpose a gated community, and you have large Liberal locks in the electorate.
They’re able to afford houses, town houses, etc… as well construct Granny Flats because of the large tradie network in and around Reid.
“Younger Professionals” as you put them are largely renters, particularly in area like North Strathfield and Drummoyne. This may result in an over inflated Labor vote, coupled with Burwood, for Reid in general.
But 2 things you have to consider, the Younger Professionals who do rent, are somewhat nomadic. They may be living in the electorate for a small period of time but the Inner suburbs lifestyle may see them move to area like Balmain, Annandale and Newtown.
They also send their children largely to public schools. Compared to the tradies who are more inclined to send their children to Catholic or Independent schools. If you combine this group with church going Asian-Australian voters in the area who are a combination of small business owners and professionals, this is enough to tip the scales to the Liberals or at least demonstrate qualitative trend growth over a substantial period.
That is where the comparison to Banks is. Families who are either small business owners/tradies, send their kids to Non-Government schools and are paying off large mortgages.
The young professionals demographic may be there but it is not strong enough and permanent enough because of the mobility of this group. They may live in Concord or Five Dock now but in 2-3 years when their lease is up they may be in Croydon, Dulwich Hill or Summer Hill. And if you have noticed property trends, Rent has significantly gone up in the Reid electorate. A lot of residents negative gear and a lot of households own 2 or more cars.
It is true that areas like Drummoyne and Birkenhead Point which neighbour the state seat of Balmain and the Federal seat of Grayndler share far more of a progressive affinity to those seats than with Reid in general. But that demo is split between Labor, Greens and Independent (Tsirekas).
On the other side of the seat, the disappointing result of the Strathfield by-election won’t give Labor much confidence, especially if more independents join the Federal race and direct their attacks to both major parties equally.
As I said in the prior post, people vote on dreams not realities in this area. And in the middle small business owner beats the heart of a big business owner. Of course many want better public services but lifestyle trumps this.
Until Labor can get a candidate who understands this they have no chance of winning or retaining this seat for a lengthy period. Sitou may get elected on novelty, if there is a large enough swing, but there isn’t enough substance to carry her long term in the area. She’s already talking about the wrong stuff in her campaign.
Reid is an extraordinarily diverse electorate, and not just ethnically, but across many demographic measures. It’s hard to make many general statements about it.
Disagree Nicholas – LJ Davidson just made a stack of general statements about it, so it’s apparently quite easy.
“They also send their children largely to public schools. Compared to the tradies who are more inclined to send their children to Catholic or Independent schools” is a good example – would love to see the data that supports this statement.
I’m sure you would High Street, as the old portuguese saying goes about a wise man..
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/CED137#:~:text=In%20the%202016%20Census%2C%20there,up%200.6%25%20of%20the%20population.&text=The%20median%20age%20of%20people,Electoral%20Divisions)%20was%2034%20years.
As a baseline the split is fairly even between renters and owners, which supports my first point that the reason the margin is closer is because renters, who largely support Labor, are at 41.5% and those own outright who largely support Liberal are at 55.3%
Median Rent is higher than both the state and Federal average, which is another point I made about the reason for movement in and out- $520 p/w compared to $380 and $335.
Mortgage payments are higher than the state and federal averages $2,300 p/m compared to $1,986 and $1,755
Homes that have 2 or more motor vehicles is 40.7% of the electorate- however, I believe this number is higher as this does not take into consideration work vehicles which are registered to a company rather than a residential address.
These are all 2016 statistics but having lived in the area my whole life and seeing the changes first hand, along with election results there is more than enough to support my thesis originally that Banks and Reid are similar in many ways
Re: the public school vs private school assertion, case and point that St Patrick’s College Strathfield and Rosebank College are the 2 best value for money independent schools in Sydney.
Pat’s is paying about $10k vs $32k at Riverview.
At Pat’s the kids there came largely from either tradies living in and around Strathfield, Concord, Enfield and Burwood. Whilst you had a lot also coming from Eastwood and Denistone- the latter were more from “professional occupational” families
The total number of independent schools vs public schools is also indicative. The number of public high schools in the electorate is only 4: Concord High, Strathfield Girls, Burwood Girls and Homebush Boys [Strathfield South falls just outside the electorate]. Compare that to the number of independent schools in Reid at 7: Santa Sabina, McDonald College, Meriden, MLC, Rosebank, St Pat’s, PLC and Domremy. That’s not including De La Salle and Bethlehem College both in Ashfield (on the border of the electorate).
These are just the high schools, there has also been the creation of 2 additional catholic primary schools in North Strathfield and Mortlake, and a proposed one at Rhodes.
To have such a large surplus of independent schools clustered in one area would indicate a demand.
The demand is there and I can speak first hand that a number of those independent schools have seen an increase between 17 to 23% enrolment increases in the last 5 years.
Whilst the NSW Department of Education is forcing parents to send their boys to Homebush Boys rather than the nominated Concord High because there is such low demand for the former and over-demand for the latter. Even if the student lives closer to Concord High.
Coupled with the above stat, why are parents leaving public schools in droves? Ties in with status and aspiration, religious belief, networking. I’d be looking at qualitative data over quantitative data in this instance
LJ Davidson
is this the one ?::”If you want good advice, consult an old man.”
Source: https://proverbicals.com/portuguese
“Coupled with the above stat, why are parents leaving public schools in droves? Ties in with status and aspiration, religious belief, networking. I’d be looking at qualitative data over quantitative data in this instance”
This isn’t a wrong view, however it’s very incomplete, & obsolescent IMV.
The rest of the 2 posts were excellent, & very informative though
cheers wd
@High Street
Really? To me, LJ Davidson’s comment looks like an analysis of the many different components of the electorate.
The seat poll in the Newscorp papers for Reid is interesting. 54-46 to Labor. Seat polls should always be taken with a heavy grain of salt, but it can’t be good news for the Liberals. I believe this will be very close, I’ll say 51-49 Labor or something around that range. Could be more like the poll suggests or the Liberals could hold it too. Who knows
Didn’t that same poll have One Nation getting 13% of the primary vote in Reid? I think that should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Seat by seat polling can be unreliable.
Regardless, Reid will be the seat most likely to fall to Labor in Sydney and possibly the whole of NSW.
Hard to predict this (No really). Labor on the current polling and political climate would be favoured here. and While I agree this is still key this is Drummoyne at the state level which is considered a safe (though inflated) liberal seat. The demographics have clearly benefited the Liberals but in no way is this a ”conservative seat” This is more of a Pro-Turnbull seat.
Martin clearly hasn’t had as much profile as Laundy has, and Laundy was clearly more liked in this seat considering he achieved a swing to him in 2016 I believe.
If the polls don’t change or show little change then Labor will get this but only narrowly and expect it to go back in 2025 if the Liberals pick a more moderate leader (So not Dutton)
Reid may fall it may not.
2 things to consider, it was supposedly one of the first seats to fall in 2019. It didn’t.
If this seat was winnable, no offence to Sally Sitou, Labor would’ve had more established and qualified candidates putting their hand up. Kristina Keneally and Jason Yat-Sen Li being examples. Sam Crosby also probably would’ve hung around.
I’d also argue the margin has been under calculated. However, it wouldn’t survive a large swing.
A Labor member for Reid is a false economy. The swing will be on this election but will adjust back to normal in 2025. By that time, it would be winnable again for the Libs, with not even a big swing being required.
I don’t think Sitou has it in her to be here in the long term and probably should’ve swapped roles with JYL.
Fiona Martin is also being massively overlooked in this analysis and is extremely popular in areas like Concord, Cabarita, Mortlake, Drummoyne, Abbotsford and Five Dock. Areas which are significant week spots for Labor
People on this website really need to stop underestimating first-term Liberal MPs who are actually well-liked and aren’t complete ideologues. Fiona Martin is a lot more moderate than the current Liberal Party (albeit fairly middle-of-the-road based on its overall history) and the anger against the federal/state governments was not particularly significant at the by-election.
If Martin does survive, she’s more than likely to be around for a while. She’s moderate, confident, young (by Liberal standards), highly educated and was born and raised in Five Dock and Strathfield, and as a result, I don’t see why she wouldn’t be popular. Irregardless/as per usual, it will be fairly close.
Reid probably swung back to Laundy in 2016 because of Turnbull because this is a fairly moderate seat, and Laundy was able to use Turnbull’s small-L liberal nature to benefit him.
Sally is working very hard doing something campaign wise neatly every day. Remember the state mp for Drummoyne is in trouble with icac and this may harm the liberal vote.Also the area encompassing Drummoyne votes much more liberal at a state level. Maybe this indicates an ability to swing
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/local-liberals-withdraw-from-sitting-mp-s-campaign-in-reid-20220404-p5aard.html
Oh dear this can’t be good for Fiona Martin.
I would say Labor has this in the bag. Fiona Martin is losing liberal support left right and centre.
Most likely scenario is Perrottet giving Martin a lifeline to replace Sidoti in the state seat of Drummoyne. Much safer proposition, if she loses.
Also doesn’t have to deal with the mess of the Strathfield Libs which have seem to have rallied behind Natalie Baini for some bizarre reason.
Interesting how Baini’s relationship with former MP Craig Laundy hasn’t got much coverage.
All things being equal Martin is a better candidate/MP than Sitou but that doesn’t equate to actually winning elections.
https://greekherald.com.au/politics/reports-emerge-15-staff-have-walked-out-fiona-martin-mp-since-election/
Quite a lot of negative press coming out recently. If these came out earlier in the past 2 years, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue for Fiona Martin but with the election so close I would be very concerned if I were her.
A lot of it is coming from the right faction of the party because of Martin’s crossing the floor against the Religious Discrimination Bill.
No coincidence that the Strathfield Liberal branch is predominately Maronite and were the ones leaking most of the negative press to the papers. Also are supportive of fellow Lebanese-Australian Natalie Baini’s candidacy.
Interestingly social conservatism has influenced many Liberal members decision to not support Fiona Martin yet Natalie Baini was the one who publicly disclosed an affair with former MP Craig Laundy.
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/03/natalie-baini-claims-liberal-party-ignored-complaint-about-conduct-of-married-coalition-minister
Politics is a strange business.
The sitting member for Reid Ms Martin has proven quite thin-skinned in terms of addressing those in her electorate who wish to scrutinise Liberal policy positions and her alignment (or not) with these positions. Quite evasive when (politely) interviewed. Mass blocking of constituents, from her social media accounts, for example. Not a good look at all.
Realistically I see Martin may be able to cling on to this seat. First off, this seat in its current form should not exist, these different areas have nothing in common (Yeah I know it’s not that simple but I digress). The Drummoyne peninsular, which is not dissimilar politically to Waverton with ‘Soft Liberals’ etc, has been trending towards Labor (This area has always had large federal/ state discrepancies). I think the religious discrimination vote will seriously help her in that area. I imagine the high SSM No vote in this seat is really concentrated in Concord, Strathfield and Homebush West, none of which will change their respective political stripes. The areas worth watching IMO is the Rhodes, Wentworth Point area, which has exponentially grown in population, and because of border closures there may be a few more registered voters per capita too. Their votes will be worth a lot more and may trend to Labor, but the area is politically indifferent, to the point that I doubt anyone will even care about the news in the past few days about Martin. Martin has been superficially talking about and having petitions against ‘overdevelopment’ in the west of the seat, which may go down well. Another interesting area is Burwood, which polled really strongly for Labor in the Strathfield by election. Throw in an increase in Greens voters around Croydon/ Ashfield and you have a seat that is honestly very hard to predict.
There’s a possibility that the Lebanese Maronite community here may be turned off from voting for the Liberals after the racism allegations against Morrison, coupled with Natalie Baini herself being of Lebanese heritage and her intense criticisms of the Liberal Party over their treatment of her and possible anger over Fiona Martin’s stance on the Religious Discrimination Bill.
I don’t know why commentators assume the large Asian community in Reid will swing against the Libs simply because of the CCP bashing. Strathfield, Burwood and Concord are bastions of the established Chinese middle class, who are probably the single demographic group most fearful of CCP influence in Australia. This is especially true of people who originally migrated from outside mainland China, like Malaysia or Hong Kong, but it will also be true of the wave of migrants who escaped mainland China in the late 1980s and their descendants. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these communities are loving the anti-CCP rhetoric, sometimes irrationally. This will be offset of course by the new mainland Chinese migrants who feel a loyalty to the Chinese regime who inhabit the tower blocks in these areas. Net effect is likely to be closer to zero, and any swing against the Libs will be down to other issues, eg pandemic response.
I am not a fan of Fiona Martin. Labor are not any better. She has not been helpful at all the few times I have called her for help. I’m a tax payer. Have worked all my life. I think Liberal Democrats may be the way to go (for me) and yes I realise they may not win but need to give it a try
Labor’s Sally Sitou has drawn 1st on the ballot, whilst the Liberal’s Fiona Martin has drawn 7th.
Supposedly around 1-2% comes from donkey vote and around 4% from ESL voters is the notional theory.
JYL along with other Labor would-be contenders must be kicking themselves for not putting their hand up for this seat if it is supposedly in striking distance (jury still out on that- margin I think has been reported as artificially lower than what it actually is)
Sitou’s strategy of strictly campaigning in Burwood, Lidcombe and Auburn/Silverwater has been puzzling, as has her complete perceived focus on one demo of the electorate.
Long-term this seat will be interesting as I can’t see Martin hanging around if she gets the boot and Labor’s in built advantage of an Asian female candidate could be negated if the Libs decide to do the same, or even lean into neglected groups like Korean, Sri Lankan or Indian in the area.
Sitou is a weak candidate, not a confident public speaker nor an accomplished list of achievements prior to politics, as well as benefitting from a weighted and rushed preselection in which n40 was implemented but looks to be the beneficiary of right place, right time.
A shame for Labor who in retrospect could’ve put someone in with a few more runs on the board, instead will probably end up losing the seat back in 2025 when the swing corrects
I live in the Wentworth Point / Olympic Park area and the Liberals do not seem to be locally popular around here, despite this it being a reasonably well off area. The perception that transport and education infrastructure not keeping pace with fast population growth is strong around here. Local community facebook groups are often hostile towards the Liberals lack of action in this respect. Take the cancelling of the light rail stage 2 for instance, locals are peeved. Drive around Sydney Olympic Park you will see poor roads which seem not to be maintained at all. Hill Road for example the lane markings have faded away. The Australia Avenue / Underwood Road / Homebush Bay Drive roundabout is as bad as ever. Martin has made announcements but done nothing. We feel neglected by government in this respect. Sure these are mostly state and local issues but it will be interesting to see if this sentiment flows into federal politics. Plus the area is very multicultural with lots of reasonably well off Muslim people and people of Asian background. Anton is correct, keep an eye on polling booths around Olympic Park.
Independent Natalie Baini has done a preference deal with Sally Sitou on each other’s HTV, with both being each other’s 2nd preference.
This will be extremely difficult for Martin to retain based on the triangulation of preferences and given that Baini is the only one with “Independent” under her name.
There was also an aggressive letterbox handout from the Christian lobby sent out against Martin’s decision to cross the floor on the religious discrimination bill.
For those interested (not an endorsement), Labor has advised the following in Reid:
1- Sitou
2- Baini (IND)
3- Jago (GRN)
4- Khalili-Naghadeh (FUS)
5- Cameron (LDP)
6- Martin (LIB)
7- Daoud (UAP)
8- Walters (ONP)
This Sydney suburb is a ‘perfect place to live’. So why do people want to move out?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-sydney-suburb-that-s-a-perfect-place-to-live-so-why-do-people-want-to-move-out-20220413-p5adaz.html
@Al Behind a paywall, what’s the reason why people are moving out from Wentworth Point? (I’d personally want to know because I have considered moving there!)
I believe very poor infrastructure especially for a high density area. Whether it gets blamed on the state or federal government, they’re both controlled by the Libs so they would get the blame and may be punished by voters
Nicholas, I read that article this morning on The Age.
Basically it talks about how it’s a perfect location but the infrastructure hasn’t kept up with the pace of the development – one road in & out, not enough transport options so the developer actually had to put on a shuttle bus, the primary school already being at capacity and only one childcare centre – etc.
The article goes on to state that “Labor – which sees Reid as winnable – is seeking to seize upon Wentworth Point residents’ frustration with broken promises and lagging infrastructure to give itself an edge at the ballot box”, in reference to things like the federal Coalition being reluctant to fund the transport projects etc.
@AI the electorate is too disparate in terms of demo and culture.
If Lidcombe, Silverwater and Auburn weren’t in the seat, this would not be competitive for Labor. You’re essentially going from one extreme to another. The messaging can’t be coherent as you essentially have to run 2-3 different campaigns in the seat or play the average and risk pissing off at least half of the electorate by leaning into 50% (or 33% in Sitou’s case)
North Strathfield, Rhodes and Concord have all seen significant increases in weekly rents. Whilst land valuations in Strathfield, Cabarita and Mortlake have exploded.
The growth in Canada Bay Council alone suggests the abolition of Lowe was a mistake.
Reid in its current form has never made any sense and is a blatant example of the AEC having no idea what they’re doing.
Interestingly former MP, John Murphy was vehemently against the seat being named McMahon (which eventually usurped Bowen’s electorate of Prospect) as there was some animosity for local Labor members against naming the seat after former member and PM Billy McMahon
What would a modern Lowe look like? Canada Bay + Strathfield + Burwood LGAs, with Reid taking in all of the former Auburn LGA and other parts of Cumberland LGA further west?
LJ Davidson and Nicholas, I saw from recent AEC statistics that Reid is pretty much on quota. If NSW doesn’t lose a seat, then removing Silverwater, Lidcombe and Auburn from the district would require Reid to push east and absorb Ashfield to maintain quota. Alternatively it could also add Hunters Hill instead of Ashfield, given that has fairly similar demographics to Drummoyne and neighbouring suburbs across the river.
Unless population growth in Wentworth Point and Rhodes is enough so that the projected enrolment will still be within tolerance after removing the aforementioned suburbs in Cumberland council.
LJ Davidson and Nicholas, I saw from recent AEC statistics that Reid is pretty much on quota. If NSW doesn’t lose a seat, then removing Silverwater, Lidcombe and Auburn from the district would require Reid to push east and absorb Ashfield to maintain quota. Alternatively it could also add Hunters Hill instead of Ashfield, given that has fairly similar demographics to Drummoyne and neighbouring suburbs across the river.
Unless population growth in Wentworth Point and Rhodes is enough so that the projected enrolment will still be within tolerance after removing the aforementioned suburbs in Cumberland council.
@Nicholas precisely Reid (Ferguson version) shouldn’t have been abolished.
Lowe had 3 LGAs and 2 state electorates, had a good symmetry with demographics and was still relatively marginal.
Adding Auburn and Lidcombe did nothing other than to gift Labor another term in 2010, when they probably would’ve lost the seat 3 years earlier than they did. Taking the 3 western suburbs out of the electorate basically creates another Banks: 1 marginal state seat and 1 safe Liberal state seat
Not that much of Auburn lidcombe and silverware in the seat… the margins in some of those booths were relatively close as well. I suspect Labor will win the seat even without those areas.
I’d potentially agree Mick if the Drummoyne margin wasn’t over 15% and Labor underperformed in the Strathfield by-election.
Silverwater, Lidcombe and Auburn make up enough of the seat to make a difference especially considering the over density from units. In other words probably make Labor more competitive than they should be all things considered.
I guess you’ll see on election night how close this seat will be, one way or the other. All I’ll point to is Labor’s candidate, if they thought this was winnable or conceivably retainable, they would’ve selected someone higher profile and not a blow-in from Cabramatta whose only credentials are her parents’ life story.
JYL possibly would’ve run for Reid, his preference but took the safer option, knowing the volatility of the eastern and northern part of the seat, ie anti-Labor
@ Yoh An shifting toward Ashfield, Haberfield and Summer Hill would make more sense for the overall composition of the seat. Especially considering many families in Reid send their children to schools such as Trinity, Newington, Bethlehem and De La Salle.
I’d also respectfully disagree with the AEC’s forecast. There is no way Reid is on quota, especially with the aggressive construction and subsequent filling of multiple high rise apartments in both Burwood and Rhodes. Nearly all train stations have seen upgrades coupled with the rollout of the Metro, and an additional shopping complex at Rhodes to just keep up with population growth.
There will be an additional 2 schools built at Rhodes plus an upgrade of the old fire station. Was even talk by some of the creation of a new LGA or de-merger of Canada Bay Council because of the lack of service delivery.
Not sure where AEC is pulling their data from as the ABS itself is struggling to maintain up to date info from businesses at the best of times.
The AEC hasn’t made a forecast, Yoh An was simply pointing to the current enrolment statistics. The numbers indeed show Reid has grown (in relative terms) by around two to three percent of a quota since the last redistribution. So yes, if the area is set for even higher population growth in the near future, it will need to shrink somewhat at the next redistribution.
Agree with your assessment Nicholas, if there is population growth in the Canada Bay LGA (which appears to be the case) then Reid will fall outside the projected enrolment quota and removal of the Cumberland council suburbs (Auburn and Lidcombe) along with Silverwater would put Reid back within tolerance. This would also be advantageous, as these areas don’t really share community of interest with Canada Bay and the Olympic park precinct.
You are correct that the on quota figure from AEC is the current enrolment only, which doesn’t factor in population growth etc.
Looking at the map it doesn’t look like any residents of Auburn are in this seat, only a small industrial area. All the residents of Auburn are in Blaxland, which is definitely the right fit for Auburn.
Interesting to note how population growth in Sydney tends to favour the Libs such as in Canada Bay, the Hills, Blacktown even in the Sydney LGA but in Melbourne it favours Labor. Goes to show how incompetent the Victorian Liberal Party is.
@Dan M the growth corridor where the Libs have any chance is the South East (Casey/Cardinia) even there they are not doing that well especially at a state level.
@Nimalan, that’s true but the Libs are doing very poorly right now and they don’t seem to be improving at all. Right now Labor dominates Casey and Cardinia in the state level and Labor holds Holt very comfortably with the growth areas in La Trobe trending Labor’s way. Areas like Point Cook and Sunbury and maybe the newly developed areas in Tarneit/Truganina/Wyndham Vale would be Liberal territory if they were in Sydney.
@Nicholas the whole point of redistributions is the AEC forecasting the population for the next x amount of years. So they do forecast.
@Adam yes correct only a fraction of the suburb Auburn but a significant part of the state electorate of Auburn. Which is the same demo overlap.
3rd letterbox drop by Sitou in a fortnight. This was half in Mandarin. It’ll be interesting to see if that was the right decision or whether it may turn some voters off. Not sure why she didn’t also put in Italian, Hindi, Tamil or Korean, as they also make up large and influential parts of the seat
The Reid of 2010 did include a lot of Auburn and Lidcombe but by 2016 (when the current boundaries commenced) Reid is pretty much the same as the final version of Lowe.
The Lowe of 2007 did include slightly more of the Strathfield and Burwood LGAs, and it didn’t include any of the Auburn LGA (now in Parramatta and Cumberland), but I would argue that Wentworth Point in particular (and the rest of the Olympic Park peninsula in general) is a better fit with Canada Bay than it is with Parramatta (its council) or with Auburn (its state seat). While there are plans for a light rail and metro, at the moment there are no direct public transport connections and barely any road connections with the rest of Parramatta City that don’t involve leaving the LGA.
Olympic Park suburbs are in Parramatta state seat as from next state election
Reid reminds me a lot of Macquarie in that it has many dissimilar communities that don’t really “talk to each other”. North of Parramatta Road is becoming very wealthy, more or less an extension of the North Shore south of the harbour in many ways – Concord, Mortlake, Cabarita, Abbotsford, Chiswick, Five Dock, Russell Lea. This is Fiona Martin’s heartland (despite her office being located centrally in the seat in Burwood). I only recently found out that Martin has Greek heritage so that is also a factor with many post WW2 migrant families and their descendants in the electorate. What about Drummoyne? – it was formerly a Labor area but will it become a Liberal area or will it become more like progressive Balmain over time? These communities north of Parra Rd are very different to the string of suburbs along the rail line. Croydon and lower density parts of Burwood have more in common with suburbs like Ashfield and Croydon Park and generally produce a better result for Labor. Even so, these suburbs are very heterogeneous due to a big range of housing types including large tower blocks in Burwood home to many recent migrants from mainland China (and a heavy amount of students). The Burwood LGA has lots of heritage conservation areas, north of Parramatta Road there are not many heritage areas. Homebush and Homebush West attract migrants from the subcontinent and east Asia who are not necessarily well off by Australian standards. The Concord area in particular is becoming BMW / Porsche SUV central – big blocks attract wealthy buyers who knock down and rebuild big homes (often the construction costs alone are over $1 million). Large lots close to the City attract a particular type of demographic, overwhelmingly Liberal. South of Parramatta Road the blocks are smaller. Olympic Park / Wentworth Point is super multicultural, its like the UN, but has poor infrastructure. Silverwater in the west of the electorate is working class, has a jail, is more in character with Auburn and has lots of heavy industry and warehousing. Many people assume the “Chinese community” (which really is a joke of a description, it’s like referring to the “Anglo community”) leans heavily Liberal – note that the seat of Strathfield with large Chinese populations (and Korean) was held by McKay after Daley’s comments and was recently won again by Labor. Then you have the “Maronite community” which will vote both ways – eg. the Labor Mayor of Burwood John Faker has big electoral support, look at the recent election results for Burwood Council. Another Maronite Bridget Sakr ran for the Liberals in the seat Strathfield but failed to get up. Then you have all the private schools – MLC, Meriden, Santa Sabina, St Pats, PLC, Trinity prep, etc etc. Reid is so diverse it is almost impossible to make any prediction. I wouldn’t write off Martin at this stage, but I wouldn’t bet on her either.
Note: I should have mentioned the suburb of Strathfield south of Parramatta Rd which is its own little rather unique bubble of wealth with large blocks of land and has voted Liberal since forever.
@ Dan M
Absolutely correct Sunbury and Point Cook should be competitive for the Libs based on their demographics. Sunbury reminds of Camden while Point Cook/Williams Landing is a bit like The Ponds/Kellyvile Ridge an affluent area with a lot of South Asian immigrants. I also feel the three suburbs of Caroline Springs, Taylors Hill and Hillside should be more marginal but they are solid labor voting.. Those suburbs have higher SEIFA scores and above average incomes. These suburbs are more aspirational rather than working class and reminds me of suburbs such as Hoxton Park, Carnes Hill etc which in Sydney are more competitive it shows how weak the Victorian Libs are and how they cannot seem to grow as Victoria grows.