Senate – Queensland – Australia 2022

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/qldsen2022/comment-page-1#comment-761468

Replacing Rees was a mistake and made the remainder of the term and the election result worse. Keneally`s lack of judgement in being the candidate to replace Rees in the second leadership challenge that term will forever tarnish Kenneally`s reputation.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/qldsen2022/comment-page-1#comment-761466

In by the “Greens won`t win a second seat” you mean that the Greens won`t get both their first two Queensland Senate candidates up at this election, I agree with you. If you are suggesting that the Greens winning a seat at the previous election means they won`t win this time, I disagree, if the Greens do not win this time it will be in spite of them winning last time. The ALP vote is likely to be quite a bit larger, potentially to the point of having a surplus after electing the second ALP candidate and that would be helpful to the Greens` chances through preference flows.

The question really won’t end up being how liked is newman amongst the electorate – but how many liberal voters liked Newman enough to switch their vote from liberal to Newman – the draining of liberal party first preference is what the sixth seat will be fought on.

@BjA from Ryan – No one is predicting a second greens senator out of the six elected this election – we mean one plus the one we got last election – the greens need to only do s well as last time to get that much. Even achieving quota would be an increase of 50%

Of course I mean 2nd Greens seat in the Senate – of course I didn’t think 2 in the same half Senate election, geez.

I’m thinking the Labor vote will be stronger this time because that is where any swing will manifest & last time I remember the Greens were desperate to get Larissa Waters re-elected. So I doubt someone brand new would get elected.

Like I said, I’m prepared to be wrong – if a Green gets up this time, so be it.

If the swing from LNP->ALP is more like 4%, rather than 7 or higher, and Greens basically hover where they are, perhaps even doing very slightly worse, that puts Labor in a position where they’ve got their two senators but have next to nothing left over to give preference wise, while LNP/LDP/UAP/ON still have a ton of votes to dump on each other. In that case Greens could find themselves on a knife edge between eating their cake and eating one of the biggest shit sandwiches in the history of Queensland politics, and have to decide whether to anoint either Stoker or Palmer in Penny’s stead (or exhaust their preferences. or blow my brains out). So that’s not a scenario nobody’s predicting, in fact many people have predicted it in the media and in this very thread. It’s pessimistic for sure but entirely plausible

Pretty myopic move by the LNP to put the only Minister and woman in the top 3 in the least winnable spot.
McGrath and Canavan aren’t really offering anything to the ticket either. Canavan couldn’t even get back into cabinet after backing the Barnaby coup.
The majors really need to rethink their Senate strategy, as voters are considering more than just party but personality, especially given the rise of smaller, individual-centred parties elected across the country.

The Greens and Labor won’t be issuing any preferences to LNP, ON, UAP or LDP. They’ll preference a few like-minded parties then stop.

‘and have to decide whether to anoint either Stoker or Palmer in Penny’s stead’

Or they finish just ahead of UAP who inevitably give #6 to LNP.

Probably if the Greens miss out they are coming 7th so they don’t distribute any preferences.

Agree with your point LJ Davidson regarding major parties and their ‘preselection’ for Senate positions. Kristina Kenneally being a minister should have gotten top position and Deb O’Neill, being just a backbencher, relegated to third position or asked to contest a lower house seat (she could easily have sought nomination for her old seat of Robertson).

Suspect alp 2 lnp2 remaining 2 seats gr crazies and lnp…. in that order

LJ
Some libs may vote 1 for Amanda Stoker. She could do a Jim Molan and run an unofficial campaign. It would be nice to see voters skip the loathsome Canavan.

The greens not getting in would be ridiculous –
– to lose the greens have to not win the last seat
– the last seat will be decided by the last 25% of the remaining vote that has not been assigned to a quota.
– Greens started off with just over 10% primary last election – this means their vote cannot be ignored , in order to get the 15% quota required someone else would need to get a higher vote then them – effectively meaning the last 25% is like a lower house seat in the way it acts, eliminate until someone has a majority of 13%.
– With this in mind it is hard to see how any other party could beat the greens to 13%, given the starting place of 10% , the strong flows from AJP and HEMP, the lack of ambition from Albanese on climate, the strong campaign from the greens and the high exhaust rate, which will make up some of that 25%
– The only way I can see the greens losing at all is the scenario in which the greens are in contention from the 5th and 6th spots with two other candidates and their preferences are distributed securing the 5th and 6th seats for the other two – I still contend the green vote will be strong enough due to the strong campaign on the ground and also Albanese for this to happen
-Btw I don’t see greens taking one nations seat in the senate, despite what the apparatchiks are saying – it will be from the coalition or labor again

It’s important to keep in mind that in 2019, Gerard Rennick (LNP #3) only barely cleared quota on the distribution of the One Nation surplus. So (all else being equal) if you take 0.15 quotas (2.5%) off the Liberals and give them to Labor, that puts things back to a 3-3 Left-Right split.

I want to emphasise that a Left-Right split of 4-2 is pretty unusual. 4/7ths is 57%, and the LNP got a 2PP of 58% on a solid swing. Labor just need to claw that back to 55-45 and that should be enough.

Hypothetical question here…. Should Pauline lose her seat, do you think she will go gracefully or try to bludgeon Malcolm Roberts out so she can take the casual vacancy?

@Redistributed

My guess is no. Remember when Paul Hanson failed to win a senate seat for One Nation in 2001?. The incumbent One Nation senator Len Harris didn’t stand down for Hanson. Despite Hanson being the leader of the party, a bigger profile then Harris, and more electable. Whether you agree with Hanson or not she can attract more media coverage then Harris 10 times over.

If Hanson tried to force Malcolm Roberts to stand down. She would risk Roberts defecting to another party like Fraser Anning. Anning quitting the party was all over because he refused to stand down for Roberts in the first place. Roberts had to quit the senate from the citizenship bungle.

Unlike the major parties where they can offer carrots in federal and state seats for politicians to make way. They just don’t have those options in a minor party like One Nation.

Hanson gambled by running in Blair in 1998, rather than the Senate. It did not turn out well for her. Had she instead run for the Senate and (as seems almost certain in retrospect) won, she would have had an additional 6 years in the Senate, been in a better position to maintain control of the party and had a better chance of (re-)election in 2004 and if she hadn`t been re-elected she would already have qualified for the Parliamentary Pension from the end of her term in 2004.

I think Jason Miles is the one to look out for. He is going to be a strong contender.

Greens pushing hard for that second Senator with their new policy to assist coal miners in transitioning out of the industry. Will it attract a significant number of new votes or is it irrelevant to their chances?

Tracey
The GAP have no chance
Wilson
The policy is specifically designed to appeal to the voters in QLD they don’t traditionally get (probably Labor voters in regional QLD)

A question on coal – where is the 65% of power that coal is producing now on the east coast going to come from. It is a big difference to make up in a very short period of time.

Ryan Spencer, yes I think that’s clearly the intention. I’m wondering if others think this move will be effective at winning votes and getting Penny Allman-Payne elected, or not.

James, it’ll be a managed transition over at least a decade. Nobody is proposing an end to coal power overnight, not even the Greens. I would imagine the plan to replace coal would mostly involve renewable energy with batteries, as well as gas.

@ Wilson working in energy I know it’s not a transition it is a chaotic mess. It is not well planned or financed

Agree more with James’ point that the transition away from coal will be rushed. It should have commenced at least a decade or two ago if it was to be successful. Would agree that coal still has to be phased out but it could be done more gradually with a complete phase out at least post 2050 to be financially viable.

James, perhaps it’s a chaotic mess right now, I don’t know personally, but I’ll bow to your superior knowledge of the industry. The point is, a transition has to happen at some point. If Yoh An Tee is right and it was best to start planning it 10-20 years ago, the second-best time to start planning is now, because the way the cost of renewables is going, a day will come where thermal coal cannot compete with renewables anymore and mass coal plant closures will take place overnight, leaving many people suddenly unemployed. Given AGL recently brought forward the projected closure of Bayswater and Loy Yang A stations, and a majority of AGLs shareholders want even stricter targets [1], that day seems inevitable and approaching sooner than we may think it will, so the earlier we start planning, the better off coal workers will be. Metallurgical coal will stick around a bit longer, but they’re already producing steel without the use of coal in Sweden [2], so the end is probably coming there too.

Anyway, as far as electoral politics is concerned, I wonder if the Greens’ plan will win them significant Senate votes in Central Queensland or any other coal mining area. Are coal miners and workers in related industries able to see what’s on the horizon, or will they continue voting for parties who tell them they won’t need to change anything? I haven’t yet seen any serious transition plan from other parties.

[1] – https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/10/agl-brings-forward-closure-date-of-two-largest-coal-fired-power-plants-as-market-shifts-to-renewables
[2] – https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/fossil-free-steel-1.6146061

There’s likely a focus on convincing these regional areas to vote Green given Allman-Payne is from Gladstone, and she’s said she’ll have her electorate office there.

Why is Tegan Grainger not on the Senate candidate list ? Liberal Democrat

I only list lead candidates for minor parties. Tegan Grainger has zero chance of winning.

Its been reported the Liberal Democrats will be able to keep their name. But will have to change it after the election. I still don’t think Campbell Newman will be elected in the senate regardless of this outcome.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.perthnow.com.au/politics/minor-party-gets-to-use-liberal-name-c-6343197.amp

So even if LDP win a seat (doubtful they do) they still have to change their name? I’d think the case would be appealed again.
Something similar happened to the DLP and the ALP but they had a little bit more wiggle room when they changed the spelling of Labor to Labour.

I read Paul Williams the other day predicted 2 Labor, 2 LNP, 1 Green, and 1 ON. He said he thought it would be a fight between ON, UAP, and LDP for the last senate seat.

Williams acknowledge Clive Palmer is polling better nationally because of his big spend. And interestingly he said Campbell Newman was getting traction on the Gold Coast.

Campbell Newman led LNP to the biggest loss in the Coalition’s history
. He succeeded in doing this for the same reason That Trump was such a divisive figure in US politics. An ego bigger than reality and an unwillingness to listen to advice.
The only people below Newman on my below the line Senate ballot will be Nazi’s, communists, eco- fascists and fascists.
However Newman’s divisiveness means he had friends who vote Liberal Party. He would be highly damaging to LNP if he was their candidate in a lower house seat where he would need 50% of vote but unfortunately he is electable for Lib Dems when he only needs to be ahead of LNP’s third Senate candidate.
The big issue is how well Clive Palmer will do. I have yet to meet a person voting for Clive Palmer but I myself like some of his older policies and detest his idiotic Freedom message.
There is no doubt the last QUeensland Senate seat will be a very viscous fight . In fact it will be one of the most interesting fights in this election.

I just now realised that I’ve commented on, I think, every other senate race, except this one. Which is odd, given that I live in Queensland…

Having said that, maybe it’s because it’s such a hard one to call… even living here, I can’t get a good read on just which way the state will go. PHON and UAP are both Qld parties in terms of origin, which means either one could outperform expectations. Greens have an interesting situation in that their lead candidate is regional. The LNP have a lineup of right-wingers (by Liberal party standards, I mean), which might harm their senate vote, or not. The ALP’s lineup are basically people that only politically-engaged people will know (and then an unknown for the third candidate).

It’s also really hard to tell how people will view the Coalition federally in terms of COVID, etc. On the one hand, I think most people were happy that Labor kept COVID out pretty well, and only used short, sharp lockdowns. On the other hand, people also got really upset about border controls because of their other impacts.

If I had to make a prediction here and now, I’d probably lean towards Labor 2, Greens 1, LNP 2, and then one last seat that might go LNP, UAP, or PHON.

But there are so many question marks, and polling isn’t giving the necessary information to make the predictions I’d otherwise need.

For example, if the Greens run a strong enough regional campaign, and enough voters decide that they want Labor in power, but don’t want them to have both houses, the Greens could get enough to be in the running for a second seat. Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.

I could also see a good chunk of anti-LNP sentiment helping UAP or PHON, too.

As a final effort to make a bit of a prediction, let’s look at swings. PollBludger currently thinks there’s an 8.4% swing to Labor. If we suppose that, say, 6% of that occurs in the Senate directly, with the other 2% mostly going to the Greens… and then assume that the LNP get, say, a 10% swing against them, with a swing of 2% to UAP/PHON, then we’d ultimately be looking at quotas something like:

LNP – 2.023 quotas
Labor – 1.999 quotas
Greens – 0.8358 quotas
UAP/PHON – 1.1053 quotas (likely to be PHON dominant).
This leaves about a quota to all other parties… and I don’t see any of them managing to get enough preference flow to overtake Greens or UAP/PHON.

So based on this, very simplistic analysis, it would be LNP 2, Labor 2, Greens 1, PHON 1.

But that’s assuming everything stays as it currently seems to be. I’d like to think Labor will strengthen, Greens may pull some extra votes in the regional areas, and PHON/UAP would end up losing some of the votes. But I’m not going to put my hopes on it.

So here are my thoughts…
1. Senator James McGrath – LNP (full quota)
2. Senator Murray Watt – ALP (full quota)
3. Senator Matt Canavan – LNP (full quota)
4. Senator Pauline Hanson – One Nation (UAP/LDP minor preferences)
5. Penny Allman-Payne – Greens (ALP excess quota preferences)
6. Senator Amanda Stoker – LNP (UAP/LDP/ALP preferences)

The problem with the transfer between Green and ALP (and vice-versa) is that everyone always counts it as 1:1. It isn’t – there’s leakage away from each other to the LNP. In the case of the Greens it’s anywhere between 80/20 and 65/35, making a Green primary vote only worth a net transfer of anywhere between 0.6 and 0.3 of a whole vote to Labor. Anecdotally about 10 to 15 percent of ALP primary votes stop with the LNP before the Greens, although that’s normally not counted because you need the final two to be LNP and Greens. That’s a fairly uncommon result.

Senator Hanson will get somewhere between 10 and 12 percent, needing just a few extra preferences from the other minors to push her over the quota. It will be a combination of UAP, LDP and the micro-parties that does it, but her primary vote will still be higher than the Greens and the leftover ALP quota.

In a way I think it will be a repeat of the 2019 Senate race where the ALP lost Chris Ketter and this time around Anthony Chisolm will be in the hot seat. If this does happen it also means that the Left will hold both of the ALP’s Senate spots in Queensland (Nita Green and Murray Watt), a profoundly unstable situation.

One thing that hasn’t been mentioned is the 2016 change to above-the-line voting with the effective abolition of tickets and the loss of the ability of parties to funnel preference flows. In 2019 they were all over the place and in many cases there was a brief flirtation with minor parties and then a return to their “traditional” base. This was particularly evident with the UAP and One Nation votes ending up with the ALP or LNP.

Another difficulty with minor parties is an inability to put boots on the ground. That’s still important, even with decreased numbers of people voting on the Saturday. Of the jobs that need warm bodies it’s really only the LNP, ALP, UAP (because money also buys support) and The Greens (sort of). There are gaps in One Nation’s ability to cover booths, but there’s also pre-polling, declared institutions and postal votes. It’s only the LNP and the ALP who can cover every possible interaction with all voters.

I did say “sort of” for The Greens – they can do the pre-poll and election day in the urban areas, but there’s a lot of other voters in seats they can’t reach. One Nation has the same problem in that they seem to be stretched thin where candidates don’t have personal networks to draw on. Clive’s paid workers can be difficult to detach from their chairs. None of them can get a HTV to a postal voter or a declared institution.

So they idea that a minor party – I’m going to choose the Australian Values Party as an example – can pull enough primary votes that can reliably transfer to preferences is getting less and less relevant. In a sense minor parties just form part of the background static.

Mark, won’t happen on current polling, nor will Chisholm lose to Watt. I think most ALP voters here in QLD know the difference between the ALP left and right and will vote BELOW the line and vote more Chisholm above Watt. And that is certainly what I will be doing when my postal ballot arrives.

Stroker is a huge joke. After her abmyssal performance this parliamentary term and her cringe-worthy meltdown on election night at the last state election she is clearly unfit to serve as senator and I’d give Chisholm a 99% chance of beating her for the last senate spot.

As much as I don’t like Newman or Palmer, at this rate I’d put them above this out of touch LNP government.

Right-wing voters must be feeling spoilt for choice. Hanson, Palmer, Newman, Canavan and now Christensen too. Is it possible the far right could be in the running for a second seat at the expense of LNP? Eg 1 LNP, 1 ONP, 1 UAP, 3 Labor/Green, or for a 4-2 split, maybe 2 LNP, 1 UAP, 1 ONP, 2 Labor etc?

Chisholm and Watt are both very low-profile, and the only person who’s ever successfully reversed a party ticketing decision is Lisa Singh, and even she couldn’t survive at a half-Senate election. You’re one person, you’re entitled to vote how you choose, but very few others will care. It’s worth pointing out that Chisholm came a distant third on BTLs in 2016, below Watt and Claire Moore.
What’s the difference anyway, they all have to vote the same in Parliament?

As it stands Third place on the ALP ticket will only get up if Greens are eliminated before Chisholm. One reason I vote below the line is so Thr at I can rank teams in the order I prefer. I have had dealings with Anthony Chisholm
over preference negotiations and he has proven to be trustworthy in contrast to most other parties.
In 2019 I ranked Ketter higher than all Liberals other than Rennick and higher than rest of ALP.
Daniel the percentage of Queensland voters voting below the line in 2019 was 6.9% compared to National percentage of 7.3%. Therefore your statement that you “think most ALP voters here in QLD know the difference between the ALP left and right and will vote BELOW the line and vote more Chisholm above Watt.” is not supported by factual information. The great majority of voters follow How to Votes that direct them towards Above the Line giving them not for that matter the How to vote publisher no opportunity to do anything other than follow every Parties own hierarchy. ATL voting does not give you the opportunity a voter any choice other than to Parrot every parties desired hierarchy.
Whilst I will vote below the line I would not support a candidate issuing a below the line How to vote it would be a grave political mistake.
I hope you are right and Chisholm beats the numer 1 and 2 ALP. Candidates but you are wrong .

Murray Watt does have a much higher profile than Anthony Chisholm. He is often quoted in the media in Queensland and has written a number of opinion pieces that have appeared in the Courier Mail.He is a regular contributor on the Senate and in Senate Committees

I think Queensland has the most predictable Senate race. I think it’s most likely to be 2-2-1-1. LNP will probably end up on around 2.3, ALP around 1.9, Greens around 0.8 and PHON on or around 0.69. The last seat will become a contest between LNP and PHON but I think Hanson will get up on strong preference flows from the other right wing minor parties

I’m more than happy to stick my neck out and say that BTL votes will have approximately the same impact in Qld that they have had the last two elections. Minimal.

Now, as Glen noted, BludgerTrack is currently showing a BIG swing to Labor in Qld both in primaries and in the 2PP, with the Greens vote holding up and a lot of the swing coming out of the LNP.

If the 2PP is almost 50-50 it’s going to take some distinct weirdness to produce anything other than a 3-3 Senate result.

Last time, at Roberts’ point of election, he and Rennick where on 2.12q combined, with Waters and Ketter on 1.69q combined.

Getting back to a 3-3 split in the Senate is possible once the Left total at that stage exceeds the Right total. That’s only a quarter of a quota of voters who need to change. Under half of what BludgerTrack thinks is happening.

BTW @Mark Yore, I wouldn’t spend too much time thinking about Greens Senate prefs; the chances of any ATL prefs getting distributed are pretty low.

Is it me or does this ballot contain a motley crew of PHON’s greatest hits? Group A Len Harris (Former PHON Senator) and Group H Steve Dickson (Former LNP/PHON State MP) with Rebeccca Llyod (dis-endorsed PHON candidate for Brisbane). PHON is down at Group X.

25 groups for this Senate ballot paper with 8 ungrouped, including 7 independents and oddly one minor party, Katter’s Australia Party (KAP). Really surprised they didn’t find someone, anyone, to run as a second candidate just so that could get a group on the ballot.

When will the list of senator candidates for the 2022 election be complete … this list does not show any candidates from the “legalise marijuana party” yet on their facebook page and website they say there have 2 candidates running for Queensland senate … so your list can not be complete … can you please make it complete so we all know exactly who is running!!

https://legalise.org.au/election/candidates/

Will be fixed up tomorrow, it’s a big job.

Unless Labor can increase their vote significantly it’ll be 3 for the libs and one each for PH greens labor

Yeah I was shocked that KAP’s running a single ungrouped candidate. What on earth were they expecting?

LNP will be preferencing One Nation second on their Senate HTV cards in Queensland. As LNP voters are some of the most obedient voters when it comes to How to Vote cards, we should expect to see a strong flow.

I’m curious now if this will mean ONP will get close to 2 quotas. I expect ONP to get almost one outright before preferences start to be allocated (~0.75). Consider this scenario, what happens if LNP gets struck out towards the end of the count, falling just short of Stoker’s quota on a figure like 2.85? Theoretically, by this point in the count we probably would have also seen LDP, UAP and others probably also struck out and delivering ONP a significant chunk of quota.

So maybe at this point ONP are hovering with around 1.2 of a quota. LNP’s remaining 0.85 quota gets reallocated and split-down with ~0.8 going towards ONP. This will leave ONP with 2 full quotas!

To be honest though I think it will play out like this on quotas before preferences are allocated:

LNP losing ground with close to 2 outright. ALP recovering their vote from last election with a similar quota to 2. Greens almost landing a full quota outright (~0.8) and ONP with ~0.7. Greens will easily pick up their seat once preferences start being allocated. And so will ONP once UAP and LDP are struck.

This gives a 2 LNP 2 ALP 1 GRN 1 ONP seat composition.

I have figured ONP will get similar senate vote to last election (~10%) once you balance out the more crowded field of contenders and potentially weaker party interest with the fact that Pauline Hanson herself is on the ballot this election – by far their strongest brand and candidate.

SEQ Observor with the figures you cite yes quite feasible. However for Liberalas to get less than 28% in QUeensland Senate we would be looking at an ALP landslide. I don’t think this is on cards. Liberals or Australian Labor Party getting 3 quotas without preferenced in QUeensland (42%) is unlikely so senate positions 5 & 6 will go to minors or be determined on Preferences. My prediction after Transfer Votes and Preferential Votes 2 LNP 2 Australian Labor Party Hanson and a Green. The factor that could throw this out is Palmer and at the moment I think electorate are sick of him but he only needs about 8% to stop regurgitating and he will pick up balance of Quota with preferences. an

I would suspect there’ll be too much leakage from ON, UAP and Newman splitting the right wing vote, for anything above 2-2-1-1.

The combined red-green left will have enough for 3 quotas, and ON won’t get enough above the second LNP to get more than one.