Senate – Queensland – Australia 2022

Doubt that Newman will get a chance here, especially with Hanson in the mix. could possibly snag one of the libs but he’d have to perform well and rely on preferences.

Labor likely to win 2 onp 1 lnp 2…… one in the mix most likely ad and lnp for last seat

remember the greens. If Labor do well they’ll get 2 and a bit quotas and that would flow on to the Greens

So the 2019 4PP baseline here is thus: LNP 3.02 quotas; Labor 1.76 quotas; One Nation 1.12 quotas; Greens 0.93 quotas; (exhaust 0.17 Q).

For Labor to pick their second seat back up they’ll need to drag someone else down. If you’re positing a several percent swing from LNP to Labor, for example, then that does a lot. The danger for the Greens is of course for Labor to overtake them, but in such a way that either Hanson or LNP #3 is only just under a partial quota and edges them out. Or they could just, y’know, lose votes to Labor.

I predict the LNP will win 3 seats folks. This is QLD. Will buck the Nationwide trend and will swing to the government unlike the disaster they face in Victoria and WA.

1 ALP and 1 GRN is a lock, and Hanson and Newman fight for the 6th seat.

I don’t like her but unfortunately Stroker will win again

ALP 2, LNP 2, and a fight with One Nation, LNP, and the Greens for the last two spots. One Nation vote has plummeted since the last federal election. That vote returned to LNP but also Labor at the last state election should be sufficient to deliver Labor a secound quota.

Apparently Larissa Waters has a bit of a following in Queensland which helps the Greens. But Penny Allman-Payne is a relatively unknown and getting a secound senator has been a bit of a bogey for them and may continue at the next election.

I don’t see Campbell Newman in the mix. But he could be the biggest loser if the if the Morrison government get legislation in parliament that stops similar party names and 1500 members for a minimum to register a poltical party. Liberal Democrats name has been quite established a new party name would seal his fate.

made a mistake said ad ZI meant green

what was 2016 baseline?

Alex the scenario you put forth is very spooky and I’m going to need you to delete it before I cry

Has the One Nation vote actually “plummeted” though?

Poll Bludger has them at 2.9% nationwide, which certainly sounds like not much, but it’s only down from 3.1%… so even if you apply the *relative* drop, then their 1.12 quotas from last time goes down to… 1.05 quotas. And Hanson herself is on the ballot this year, so any local candidate issues PHON might’ve had in 2020 are largely irrelevant. I think she’ll be comfortably re-elected.

Also, Ben, your “Others” total is not correct – I think what you’ve got there is the Unendorsed/Ungrouped minus Hetty Johnston. The 10 remaining parties on the ballot from the Pirates down to the CEC aren’t included in any total.

@AlexJ

The One Nation vote in the Queensland state election dropped 6.6%. I think its fair to say that it’s plummeted but I didn’t say One Nation were not still in the hunt for a senate seat in Queensland. The 7.12% vote they received does still give them a ‘base’ for a senate seat run which I’m not convinced Campbell Newman will be able to draw on for his run.

Federal and state results can be seen to be different though. But there has been ties between One Nation popularity federally and state as well to draw comparisons with their popularity.

I think it likely that the ALP will get 2 seats, the Greens 1 seat and only 1 of PHON and LNP no.3 will win.

Newman and Palmer won`t win.

On a historical note:

The ALP was only 2,461 votes from winning a 5th seat in 1974. Had ATL preferencing or GTV been available, the informal vote (65,941/6.0%) may have been lower and that may have helped the ALP win said 5th seat.

Everyone assuming that the ALP will do better in QLD than the last election is hugely mistaken and I can’t wait to prove them wrong come May or March. Come up here to QLD and you’ll see why I am predicting an LNP landslide for Morrison in QLD again. They will also gain Blair and Lilley and are in striking distance in Griffith and Moreton.

Daniel Terri Butler had a swing TO her in 2019. The Greens might win it, but the LNP will not.

Oh man, if the LNP put resources in to go for Griffith it guarantees that Max Chandler-Mather will win it. The only hope for Labor is that the LNP don’t try so that the Labor primary vote can be inflated by traditional red-blue swing voters all voting red, keeping Labor ahead of the Greens at the point of 3 candidates remaining.

See 2020 QLD state election electorates of McConnel and Cooper for examples of that phenomenon. Greens would have been significantly closer in both seats if the LNP primary vote had gone up rather than down.

Thanks Alex, that’s fixed now. You’re right about what happened. I checked and all the other states appear to be correct.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/qldsen2022#comment-755021

2019 was a high water mark for the LNP in Queensland, just like 2004 was. Morrison`s record in office of evasive problem avoiding (“I don`t hold a hose.”, “It`s not a race.”, etc.) will come back to bite him.

The One Nation vote has also declined, reducing the flow of preferences to the LNP in the Senate as One Nation will soak up more of them.

Fraser Anning / National Conservatives, bernadi / Conservatives and RUAP are all gone. That means all the alt right votes should flow to One Nation especially if Pauline is up for re election. That being said, covid is a game changer this coming election which could see both lib and lab hemeraging votes based on the disasters in Vic and nsw. Really it’s anyones game

LNP will get 2 seats, Labor’s 2019 Senate vote was absolutely disastrous. They will probably do better this time, but will still be just below 2 quotas for me. Greens to win the last seat and ON will in my opinion just edge LNP for the 5th seat.

Is Clive Palmer running himself, or just fielding random candidates?

Personally not happy with the ALP’s attacks on Gerard Rennick constantly on twitter. Do they have anything better to do and give the new senator a break for once. You can’t govern the country constantly delivering personal attacks on twitter.

Labor has given QLD voters more reasons not to vote for them and I still retain my prediction of 1 seat for the ALP and status quo in terms of lower house seats.

ALP is absolutely invisible up here in the northern suburbs. LNP very visible with billboards around.

Interestingly Paul Williams wrote the other day he thinks Labor two senate seats, LNP two senate seats, and One Nation one senate seat. And the last seat will be a tussle but he didn’t specifically mention the LNP getting the final seat.

“With Labor and the LNP likely to win two Senate seats each – and with Pauline Hanson all but certain to be returned – there will be just one seat up for grabs.

With the Democrats competing not only with the Greens but also the newly recruited Liberal Democrat Campbell Newman (and a host of others), it’s difficult to see how a refurbished minor party can win, notwithstanding its struggle to meet the new national registration threshold of 1500 members.”

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/australian-democrats-mean-business-ahead-of-next-federal-election/news-story/8865f295b73435f3ac25078db4ecff98

I mean, 2-2-1-1 is firmly within the range of expected outcomes for Queensland.

One Nation exceeded quota last time and the Greens were at 0.95 (close enough, considering exhaust).

And then it only takes a 2% swing for the Labor #2 candidate to draw level with LNP #3.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/qldsen2022/comment-page-1#comment-757825

Given that last election was almost certainly a high water mark for the LNP in Queensland, it may well be the most likely outcome, although the lower One Nation vote at the 2020 state election shows a reasonably chance of 3-2-1, particularly with the reduction of Palmer branding of PUP.

I don’t see a likely scenario where Hanson isn’t reelected, one way or another. But there’s fairly good recent evidence that strong ON campaigns come at the expense of Labor in Queensland, and vice versa. When ON does well, their voters they tend to follow the HTV and direct leftover preferences/quotas overwhelmingly to the Coalition. When it doesn’t, a huge percentage of its constituency just vote Labor. Whether those people follow the Labor HTV with the same fidelity, I’ve no idea. It’s the 3rd LNP candidate and the Greens that look most vulnerable imo.

Unless Labor tanks, in which case, it’s a repeat of 2019.

The Greens have nothing to lose because they don’t hold a seat anyway on this rotation. With the 6% increases in Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith expected regardless of what happens, Penny Allman-Payne should get in.
Drew Pavlou is also running, although the right time for him to run was last election and he’s honestly pretty forgettable.

I wouldn’t say they’re expected so much as hoped for, and it’s also reasonably fair to say that the Greens’ constituency is centralising in Brisbane at the expense of just about everywhere else. It could be that they end up winning one or two of the lower house seats and miss out in the Senate. Or they could come up short in all three divisions (even if they’re all nailbaiters) and still miss out in the Senate.

Outside the LNP, Labor, One Nation and the Greens no one else has a look in. It is incredibly hard to win a senate seat without very high name recognition and an incredible amount of machinery on the ground – which is even harder in a big state like QLD. And without group voting those preferences just don’t appear out of nowhere any more. Even in 2019 despite all the money and hype Clive Palmer could only manage 3.5% of the QLD senate vote. You would need at least half a quota (7.2%) to even have a chance.

Clive Palmer and Campbell Newman have announced a preference deal with the United Australia Party and the Liberal Democrats. I suppose the biggest loser out of it may be Pauline Hanson chances. It isn’t the death knell though as it was reported that while UAP are polling best in the regions. Their polling stronger in regional NSW rather then Queensland.

It can’t be good for the LNP either. Campbell Newman made comments suggesting their voters should preference the Liberals ‘third last’. Scott Morrison latest comments that ‘people are sick of government’ in their lives is obviously an appeal to this section of voters who are fed up with the lockdowns. However, Morrison opportunistic picks and chooses on this political ideology after he introduced the Cashless Debit Card.

Methinks there is more in this for Clive than there is for Campbell Newman. When push comes to shove, they are both competing against each other for a smallish pot of votes. Clive has more resources to get a candidate up in every Reps seat than the LDP – essential to maximise a senate vote. The other factor is that preferences leak and one of the two sides has to pick up preferences from somewhere else to get over the top of the other. One Nation are still in with a big chance as they have big name recognition and Pauline is running next year too. She just needs to stay reasonably ahead of the other two. The other factor is that we don’t really know until election day, how many votes the populist / loony right can get. Last time it was about 19% between One Nation/ Clive/ LDP/ Katter and Fraser Anning plus a few more for even odder sods. Only on election day will we know if the same cake gets cut differently or it is a bigger cake. Matt Canavan might draw a bit of a personal vote as well which may / may not stay in the LNP camp.

Chisolm to retain. Murray Watt will lose his position to the Greens. Only 1 seat for the ALP.

Besides it would be common sense to put the Labor-right nominee on #1 because if you lose the 2nd seat you would end up with no moderate senators in a state that increasingly is hostile to the left-wing of the Labor party. Murray Watt is politically allot more aligned with the Greens than any other senator up for re-election here next year.

I’ll certainly be putting Chisholm above Watt by voting below the line if the ALP choose to make a stupid by putting the left candidate first.

If anyone knows whether Chisholm or Watt is first please let me know. Unless Labor surge in QLD and do much better than the last election in QLD and the minor party vote collapses I still suspect the same result as 2019. QLD’s haven’t moved. the Labor party has, but nevertheless they still reluctantly just get my vote for not being the LNP.

Murray Watt is in the Left faction so he will be getting the first spot. Anthony Chisholm is in the Right faction so he will be getting the second spot. I still think Labor will be getting a secound senate seat. After a primary vote of 26% it couldn’t be going much lower for Labor and there will be some correction.

With so many possible players in the mix it is possible that the 6th senator might be elected with a vote that is quite a way below the quota due to exhaustion of votes. That may spring a surprise.

Wouldnt rule out Cambell. I know heaps of Boomers who are keen on him. Considering the current authoritarianism (whether needed or not) in politics it is the right time for the LDP.

I think he will get up. Also, almost every party would prefer LDP over another rival on the right.

There will be a correction this election so it’s likely that Labor will get 2 seats, the Greens one, LNP 2 and the final seat will be be a battle between Pauline Hanson and Amanda Stoker with Campbell Newman a rough chance. The appearance of a number of hard right candidates such Hanson and Newman will take votes from the LNP. It could be a long time before the final Senate seat is decided in QLD.

Agree with John t…alp 2 great lnp2 nuts1

Agree with John t…alp 2 greens nuts1 lnp2

Clive Palmer has just announced he is running as UAP’s Senate candidate in QLD. Just in case this contest wasn’t interesting enough already! It’s going to be one hell of a fight for that last spot.

Assuming two Labor and two LNP seats are safe, only two will make it from Hanson, Stoker (LNP), Palmer, Allman-Payne (Greens) and Newman (LD). Palmer running should fragment both the anti-establishment and conservative voting blocs still further, whereas you’d figure the left will mostly unify behind Allman-Payne. Hanson probably has enough of a personal vote to take the remaining seat even with Palmer confounding things.

Can’t see Lib Dems ever getting elected again Federally unless they draw first on the ballot, and it is a Double Dissolution. A lower quote and donkey vote are the only way they get across the line.
Leyonhjelm was a fluke, and the party has benefited in the same way the DLP did for years in voter confusion from the name.
In terms of policy, the Libertarian cause has been taken up by One Nation, SFF and UAP to a lesser extent.
I’d be very surprised if they won any thing at a National level again.

In the right wing corner – surely only the UAP and ON are the serious players – Shooters, Katter, LDP – just won’t have the resources to compete so their votes will go into the build up. Conceivably there will be 5 players for the last 2 places -LNP, ALP, ON, UAP and Greens.

Ipsos poll has Greens on 15, ON 13, and LNP and ALP way down (34 and 26%). Anti-establishment backlash, or is it all a mirage? Honestly more inclined to believe the ON figure than the Greens one; they’ve really stepped up their presence on social media and, like UAP, seem much more visible at the now regular antivax rallies, as if there were any doubt that the whole ‘movement’ is right wing astroturfing. On the other hand, it is Ipsos.

FN
According to the AEC, the combined LNP/ ALP vote in QLD was 60.47% in 2019 and 60.65% in 2016. The total vote included informals. So the combined LNP/ ALP in the Ipsos poll is not really down at all.

I am not sure if any seat except 1 for labour and 1 for liberal is guaranteed.

The QLD greens getting in seems to be the most likely of the minor parties, they seem to brunning one of the most impressive ground games of this election, with a campaign larger than Melbourne 2010 in Griffith. Combining this with preferences from AJP and Hemp and Albaneses lack of ambition on climate change will surely leak a few votes for labour.

Pauline not getting in seems like an absurd proposition, with her on the ballot, preferences from other right wibg parties, of which I would suggest she would be the biggest, COVID resistance being more prevalent well as morisons compromise on Net Zero probably winning her more votes. Furthermore she is the only really established right wing politician in these areas with an party that contested that last election and even kept their seat.

Campbell Newman is probably the biggest threat to stoker aside from Chisolm because he is really the only other person who can take lnp first preferences away as the former premier – this is different from Pauline who generally takes her votes Labor . Even if this does not result in him winning the seat, it is important to note that 10% of the vote in the senate does not get applied to a candidate as 6 senators X 15% quota = 90% of the vote. This vote that is not applied to a candidate ended up being primarily labour first preferences last time, it is quite easy to see him sucking up lnp first preferences, reducing them to 2 quotas as Chisolm, Payne and Hanson get pushed across the line.

That said he aborbs enough lib preferences he could actually take a seat himself – if, for example, 1/5 LNP voters like him enough to vote for him that puts him on around half a quota , if you combine that with Palmer’s preferences, which are probably going to be greater this time as it seems like he’s running a better campaign then last time on issues which matter somewhat like the budget or COVID and the fact he seems to be running somewhat of a ground game in his strong hold in 2013 – upper Queensland. His preferences will probably also go to the party with the most anti-vax credentials – the lib Dems.

After absorbing Palmer Campbell would probably also count on preferences from hard right, know and labour over each other.

There are two dangers however, one is that Newman simply cannot persuade a large contingent of liberal voters his way due to the anti-vax messaging overtaking the Newman messaging, which would be bad for him as there is lot more competition for the anti-vax vote. The other problem for Campbell would be being overtaken by Palmer , in which case I would suspect a lot of the former lnp types would skedaddle out back to the lnp on second preferences, leaving Palmer in a bad situation. The only way Palmer wins is by a 2013 style vote for him, which would be interesting as it seems like the “Palmer” brand had been damaged by the Townsville nickel scenario, the high profile desertions in the senate, the flop of his campaign last time and the fact alot of that working class Labor vote that won him Fairfax in 2013 went to Pauline.

The only other person with a chance might be drew pavlou – now this might seem farfetched but he has been given significant coverage by Murdoch for a “left-wing” party and has a strong reason to take preferences from every contender

Anti-China and strongly critical of Qld lockdown – LNP, ON, UAP/LD, KAP

Left wing and not the greens – ALP

Public housing and strong on climate – Greens + left wing minors

Not really on left or right – TNL, AD.

Combine that with the fact that a lot of these parties hate each other, have long standing rivalries and would rather put in a political newcomer that shares some of their policy goals the mend bridges and you get someone that could come from behind in a large exhaust field – especially by the cirtainty that Kap will get some votes but not nearly enough and are almost cirtain to preference him.

I can see a wide number of possibilities for this race but only one where stoker remains – the same 1-1-1-3 as last time.
I do reckon the most likely outcome by far is the lnp losing their third seat but who stoker loses that seat to could be anyone – my best bet is definitely labour but it could be anything from Palmer to Cambell to pavlou.

However there is one last possiblity – say that Labor takes the QLD swing predicted in poll bludger – 7% and gets 2 senators off the bat, and let’s say Campbell gets 8%, the swing he won in 2012, from liberals, that puts them at 22% – scarily similar to what was achieved by Labor in 2019 – and it is hard to see them overtaking the greens with ajp and hemp preferences, Campell with the massive Clive preferences, and Pauline with katter preferences and a recuperation of the Fraser Anning vote – for a result of 2 lab ,1lib, 1grn, 1 ON, 1 LD.

I don’t see how Campbell Newman could win any seat given how unpopular he was when he got booted. It’s not like he was Premier for a lengthy period, as well. So his profile is either really disliked or faded into obscurity.
It’s the same rationale with Kristina Keneally, people in Labor seem to be smitten with her yet fail to remember that like Newman, lead their parties to the biggest landslide defeats at a state election. Both figures are deeply disliked within large segments of their respective states.
And now Newman wants to run for effectively a state-wide seat. Am I missing something with his popularity here? He seems a bit opportunistic and was just looking for another right-wing party to attach himself to but One Nation and UAP have no room at the inn.
Again the only pathway for him is the Leyonhjelm route of drawing first on the Senate Ballot and letting the donkey vote run its course.

A market has now been released on Sportsbet for the 6th Senate seat. The odds are:
Coalition – 3.10
Greens – 3.25
One Nation – 4.00
Labor – 5.50
UAP – 8.00
Liberal Democrats – 12.00

Bear in mind this is for the 6th seat only, not the last two seats together. I would imagine One Nation’s odds are below the LNP and Greens because Sportsbet considers them more likely to win the 5th seat.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/qldsen2022/comment-page-1#comment-761447

Unlike Keneally, Newman won an election and did so in a landslide. Newman also lost relatively narrowly (3 seats/1.1% of statewide 2PP). Newman is also running in the Senate, which has proportional representation and so general popularity is not much of an issue (particularly with above the line voting drawing less attention to individual candidates), only his popularity with voters willing to switch their vote to the Liberal Democrats because of him. Having said that, I still don`t think it will be anywhere near enough.

The Liberal Democrats would also have to win their High Court case on keeping their name.

I reckon the 5th seat is between Pauline & LNP, then Labor will edge Greens for the 6th seat. If Pauline gets back in 5th (if so, I think it will only be narrowly), then LNP to get 6th.

I’m more than prepared to be wrong but I’m not buying what the Greens sympathisers are spinning. Doorknocking ain’t gonna get a 2nd seat.

I think swings back to Labor in QLD will occur in the Senate via the seats that they already hold & Flynn if they gain it.

@LJ Davidson

Your comparison with Kristina Keneally with Campbell Newman is drawing a long bow. Keneally was premier when Labor was at the end of a long reign in power for 16 years. That coupled with the corruption scandel of Obeid/McDonald made Keneally take the brunt of the Labor loss. Keneally didn’t have the mandate of Newman and some in the party suggested Labor saved more furniture then it should have.

Newman is completely different. He started with biggest mandate at the time of 78 seats in Queensland parliament history and burned through it all in three years. In terms of arrogance and slash burn there is nobody better. So much so that LNP figures are now trying to ‘denewmanise’ the party to make themselves electable again.

I think Keneally is somewhat overrated in her star appeal though. So much so I don’t think she is a leadership option for Labor. But the suggestion she is despised like Newman is wrong.