ALP 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Patrick Gorman, since 2018.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Central and northeastern Perth. The seat covers the Perth CBD, which is in the southwestern corner of the seat. Perth runs along the northern shore of the Swan river, to the east of the Perth CBD. Other suburbs include Maylands, Mount Lawley, Bayswater, Ashfield, Bedford, Morley and Mount Hawthorn.
Redistribution
There were changes to suburbs on the northern edge of Perth, losing Noranda to Cowan and gaining Dianella, Yokine, Tuart Hill from Stirling. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 4.9% to 3.2%.
History
Perth is an original federation seat. It was dominated by conservative parties until the 1940s, and became a marginal seat until the early 1980s. It has been held by the ALP ever since 1983.
Perth was first won in 1901 by the ALP’s James Fowler. Fowler was a fierce opponent of Billy Hughes within the party, and he switched to the new Liberal Party in 1909. He joined the new Nationalist Party in 1916, but his conflict with Hughes made this difficult. He lost Nationalist endorsement before the 1922 election, and lost Perth.
Nationalist candidate Edward Mann won Perth in 1922. He was re-elected in 1925 and 1928, but in 1929 was one of a number of Nationalist MPs led by Billy Hughes to rebel against the Bruce government and lead to the government’s downfall. Mann lost Perth as an independent in 1929.
Perth was won in 1929 by Nationalist candidate Walter Nairn. Nairn became a United Australia Party member in 1931, and held the seat for the next decade. He served as Speaker from 1940 to 1943, and retired at the 1943 election.
The ALP’s Tom Burke won Perth in 1943. He held the seat for the next twelve years, until 1955, when he lost Perth to the Liberal Party’s Fred Chaney. Burke was expelled from the ALP in 1957, although he later rejoined the party. His sons Terry Burke and Brian Burke were both later elected to the Western Australian state parliament, and Brian went on to become Premier.
Chaney held Perth for the next fourteen years. He served in Robert Menzies’ ministry from 1964 to 1966, but was dropped from the frontbench when Harold Holt became Prime Minister in 1966. He lost Perth in 1969. He went on to serve as Administrator of the Northern Territory and Lord Mayor of Perth.
Perth was won in 1969 by the ALP’s Joe Berinson. He was re-elected in 1972 and 1974, and in July 1975 was appointed Minister for the Environment in the Whitlam government. He lost his seat at the 1975 election. He went on to serve in the Western Australian state parliament and as a minister in a number of state Labor governments.
The Liberal Party’s Ross McLean won Perth in 1975, and held the seat as a backbencher for the entirety of the Fraser government, losing the seat in 1983.
Perth was won in 1983 by the ALP’s Ric Charlesworth. Charlesworth had been caption of the Australian men’s field hockey team, and represented Australia at five Olympics in the 1970s and 1980s. He captained the team at two Olympics while he held the seat of Perth. Charlesworth also played Sheffield Shield cricket for Western Australia in the 1970s.
Charlesworth held Perth for ten years, retiring in 1993 at the age of 41. He was replaced by Stephen Smith, former Keating advisor and State Secretary of the ALP in WA.
Smith was promoted to the Labor frontbench after the 1996 election, and served as a shadow minister in a variety of portfolios until 2007. Smith served as Foreign Minister in the first term of the last Labor government, and as Defence Minister in the second term, before retiring at the 2013 federal election.
In 2013, Perth was won by Labor’s Alannah MacTiernan. MacTiernan had been a state MP from 1993 to 2010, and a minister in the Gallop/Carpenter state Labor government. She had resigned from state Parliament in 2010 to unsuccessfully contest the federal seat of Canning. After that loss, she had served as Mayor of Vincent from 2011 until her election to federal Parliament in 2013.
MacTiernan retired in 2016, and was succeeded by Labor’s Tim Hammond.
Hammond held the seat for less than two years before quitting in early 2018. The subsequent by-election was won by Labor’s Patrick Gorman. Gorman was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Perth is a marginal seat, and has been made more marginal by the redistribution, but the recent results were recorded at a time when Labor was at a low point in Western Australia. If Labor bounces back in the west they should have no trouble retaining Perth.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jim Grayden | Liberal | 32,800 | 37.4 | -4.9 | 39.0 |
| Patrick Gorman | Labor | 30,207 | 34.4 | -2.9 | 33.6 |
| Caroline Perks | Greens | 16,552 | 18.9 | +1.8 | 18.4 |
| Mel Lownds | One Nation | 2,333 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Jane Boxall | Western Australia Party | 2,222 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 2.4 |
| Chas Hopkins | United Australia Party | 1,661 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 1.8 |
| Gary Davies | Science Party | 1,329 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.2 |
| Curtis Greening | Flux | 602 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.5 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 4,220 | 4.6 | +0.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Patrick Gorman | Labor | 48,176 | 54.9 | +1.6 | 53.2 |
| Jim Grayden | Liberal | 39,530 | 45.1 | -1.6 | 46.8 |
Polling places in Perth have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.8% in the west to 59.8% in the east. The Liberal Party counterbalanced those results with 50.9% in the pre-poll vote.
The Greens did well in Perth, with a primary vote ranging from 19.6% in the east to 20.3% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 20.2 | 53.8 | 29,709 | 30.5 |
| Central | 20.3 | 55.5 | 16,636 | 17.1 |
| East | 19.6 | 59.8 | 14,875 | 15.3 |
| Pre-poll | 14.7 | 49.1 | 19,217 | 19.7 |
| Other votes | 16.3 | 49.1 | 17,084 | 17.5 |
Election results in Perth at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
@it will probably shed bassandean
Nimalan, Perth has many more people than Adelaide. It’s more comparable in population to Brisbane. Granted, Perth is less dense than Brisbane (and that’s saying something), but a Greens victory is still a possibility with the right redistributions and campaign.
Fair point Wilson
Only thing i would say is that this seat is less affluent than the 3 Brisbane areas and has fewer Blue/Green areas. I dont think Labor primary will see the same level of decline as we have observed in Brisbane so that Labor falls to 3rd place and gets knocked out of the 2CP. If the Greens start to outpoll Labor is more average middle ring suburbs then for Labor it is existential.
@Nimalan, what would you say is your definition of a middle ring suburb? Would suburbs like Greenslopes and Coorparoo in Brisbane count? I think the Greens outpolled Labor in those areas. And you mentioned Carina as a middle ring suburb – in the Griffith booth in 2022, the Greens outpolled both Liberal and Labor.
@GPPS
That is good question and i dont have perfect answer but i will try my best with a Melbourne comparison instead as i know that city best. I would say in Melbourne the suburbs between Warrigal Road and East link/Stud Road would be middle ring. These suburbs are generally more established yet have a more middle class rather than old money demographic classic Lib/ALP areas so suburbs such as Forest Hill, Mount Waverley. Doncaster fit that demographic. These suburbs are not really Tealish. I think you maybe right in Brisbane that the Greens have started to do well in more middle ring suburbs like Carina. The point that i was trying to make is that if the Greens outpoll Labor in such suburbs then it is very hard to see Labor forming a majority government again longer term.
In the event Mount Hawthorn and Leederville switch to Curtin, then Kate Chaney could have an easier time with re-election as these areas lean towards Labor.
@daniel t curtin is over quota and will she’d territory most likely to Cowan which is over quota also but Moore is atquota and Perth can become a quota by shedding bassandean to hasluck hasluck will absorb most of the city of swan from Pearce and Cowan aside from ballajura and this will make hasluck labor retain but will make Pearce and the new division easier for the liberals it will also cause cowna to be less safe and if anee Aly were to lose the sing she gained in 22 she would lose her seat.
Is there a chance Perth moves sightly west to include Crawley and parts of Nedlands which is in City of Perth LGA. As well as parts of Subi?
@CG all it need to do is shed bassandean so wont gain territory as its already over quota
Looks like its very obvious Labor sees the Greens as their main challenger in the 2025 Federal Election in the electorate of Perth. Patrick Gorman has pretty much been obsessed with the Greens over the last couple of months, writing anti Green opinion pieces in the local right wing papers, long unhinged threads and spending thousands of $ on anti Green ads on Facebook.
Patrick Gorman’s oped felt like an attack Terri Butler would do ahead of the 2022 election. I reckon ALP must have some very poor polling possibly suggesting a Green surge or Gorman in a three-way race.
I think with the removal of bassandean libs should recover enoigh vote to make the 2pp
Greens have confirmed this as their WA target seat and could win if there’s also a decent ALP to LNP swing (which may be typical for WA) in addition to a decent Green swing that could be expected in a seat like this in terms.1 of a disappointing Labor government.
If Greens can confirm the Senate seat is solid and concentrate efforts here I think they may just take it.
Is Highgate the most progressive place in WA?
@Nether Portal, I would probably say Fremantle, Southern Fremantle, Northbridge, Highgate, Hilton, Maylands, Bayswater, Subiaco and Victoria Park.
I think some of the Fremantle booths are more progressive (see Hilton, White Gum Valley, Fremantle proper)
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-27966-7784.htm
Perth is normally a marginal seat but like the rest of wa experienced a higher then usual swing. Could possibly be a lib target in a few years
@Patreon57 @Malcolm oh yeah forgot about Fremantle.
@John only if the Greens vote doesn’t keep going up and if the Liberals can keep the small-l-liberal vote from going to Labor and the teals.
Also worth mentioning that the WA Labor vote was 5-7% above where it would have been had it not be for Mark McGowan’s absolutely insane popularity. The likes of Patrick Gorman had pictures of McGowan on their placards. I would be very surprised if Labor manages to get above 33% PV in Perth come 2025 election.
@patreon your also forgetting the coved isolationism and the fact Morrison alienated wa voters
@np I doubt the libs can ever win here but it would be marginal enough to force Labor to utilise.ise resources defending it
The federal seat of Perth is less safe for the ALP against the Liberal Party than Fremantle, but it is more vulnerable to a possible Green challenge. Fremantle has more electors in the City of Cockburn than in the City of Fremantle and most of Cockburn is blue collar suburban and not especially Green-friendly. Federal Perth having shed Bassendean is now more inner-city in its makeup. It was the higher Yes-voting WA seat in 2023 when Fremantle voted No (thanks to Cockburn).
However I do not expect the Greens to outpoll Gorman or the Liberal Party who have endorsed a credible candidate. 2023 Yes votes were not all proxy Green/ALP votes and nor were all No votes proxy Liberals.
The Liberals won’t win Perth under Dutton it’s not a seat that will support that vision of the Liberal Party. It’s going to be Labor or the Greens here. Before the last few days you’d be pretty confident it would be Labor but Gorman’s statements have only made his position more vulnerable, he’s kicked an own goal with his attacks on the Greens.
Perth is a seat that may be marginal won’t fall to the libs