ALP 3.5%
Incumbent MP
Julie Owens, since 2004.
Geography
Western Sydney. The seat of Parramatta covers the centre of Parramatta and surrounding suburbs, including Granville, Holroyd, Wentworthville, Westmead, Carlingford, Dundas and Rydalmere, and parts of Merrylands, South Granville and Toongabbie.
History
Parramatta is an original Federation electorate. The seat has long been a marginal seat, focused on the Parramatta CBD. The seat has shrunk substantially from its original boundaries, when it covered most of what is now northwestern Sydney and stretched as far as Lithgow.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Joseph Cook, a former minister in George Reid’s Free Trade colonial government. Cook held the seat for the first twenty years of Federation, successively for the Free Trade Party, Anti-Socialist Party, Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalists.
Cook served as Leader of the Anti-Socialist Party following George Reid’s retirement in 1908, and agreed to merge with Alfred Deakin’s Protectionists in 1909 to form the Commonwealth Liberal Party. He served as Defence Minister in Deakin’s final government and became Liberal leader after Deakin’s defeat at the 1910 election.
Cook won the 1913 election, becoming Prime Minister, but with a Labor majority in the Senate his government was stifled, and he called a Double Dissolution in 1914, which he lost.
In 1916, Labor Prime Minister Billy Hughes left the ALP over the issue of conscription, and Cook agreed to merge his Liberals with the Labor rebels to form the Nationalist Party, with Cook as Hughes’ deputy. He retired in 1921 to serve as High Commissioner in London.
The ensuing by-election was won by Herbert Pratten. Pratten moved to the new seat of Martin in 1922, and was replaced in Parramatta by fellow Nationalist Eric Bowden. Pratten held Martin until his death in 1928, while Bowden held Parramatta until 1929, when he lost the seat.
Labor candidate Albert Rowe won in 1929, but only held it for one term, losing it to United Australia Party candidate Frederick Stewart in 1931. Stewart went on to serve in a variety of ministerial roles in the Lyons and Menzies governments, and retired in 1946.
Parramatta was won in 1946 by Liberal candidate Howard Beale. Beale served as a minister in the Menzies government from its election in 1949 until his retirement in 1958, when he became Ambassador to the United States.
The seat was won in 1958 by prominent barrister Garfield Barwick, who held the seat for the Liberals until 1964, when he was appointed Chief Justice of the High Court of Australia.
The 1964 by-election was held by Liberal candidate Nigel Bowen. Bowen joined Harold Holt’s cabinet following the 1966 election and remained there until the election of the Whitlam government. He left Parliament in 1973 to serve on the NSW Supreme Court.
The 1973 by-election was a key contest during the Whitlam government. Bowen had held on by a slim margin in 1972, but Liberal candidate Philip Ruddock managed a 7% swing and won the seat.
Ruddock was re-elected in 1974 and 1975, but moved to the new seat of Dundas in 1977. He held Dundas until its abolition in 1993, when he moved to Berowra, which he still holds today. He served as Minister for Immigration then Attorney-General in the Howard government.
Parramatta was won in 1977 by the ALP’s John Brown. Brown served as a junior minister for the first two terms of the Hawke government, and was promoted to Cabinet in 1987, but was forced to resign as a minister in 1988 after misleading the House, and retired in 1990.
Brown was succeeded by former Mayor of Parramatta Paul Elliott, also an ALP member. Elliott served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final term of the Labor government, and lost Parramatta to Liberal candidate Ross Cameron in 1996.
Cameron was appointed a Parliamentary Secretary after the 2001 election, and continued in similar roles until the 2004 election, where he was one of the few Liberal MPs to lose their seat, with Labor candidate Julie Owens winning the seat.
The 2007 redistribution pushed Parramatta north and made it notionally Liberal, but a big swing saw Owens retain the seat. Owens has since been re-elected four more times.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Julie Owens is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Parramatta is a marginal seat. The retirement of Julie Owens could create an opportunity for the Liberal Party.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julie Owens | Labor | 38,171 | 45.1 | -1.4 |
| Charles Camenzuli | Liberal | 34,954 | 41.3 | +6.9 |
| Phil Bradley | Greens | 6,131 | 7.2 | +0.4 |
| Asma Payara | Christian Democratic Party | 2,526 | 3.0 | -2.3 |
| Ganesh Sahadev Loke | United Australia Party | 2,186 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Oscar Grenfell | Socialist Equality Party | 702 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 7,739 | 8.4 | -0.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julie Owens | Labor | 45,302 | 53.5 | -4.2 |
| Charles Camenzuli | Liberal | 39,368 | 46.5 | +4.2 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south. The north-east covers all booths on the north-eastern side of the Parramatta river, while the south covers booths in the CBD and further south and the north-west covers booths to the west of the CBD.
Labor dominated in the south (58.5% of the two-party-preferred vote) and north-west (57.2%) while the Liberal Party polled 51.7% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 8.3 | 48.3 | 22,749 | 26.9 |
| South | 6.3 | 58.5 | 15,311 | 18.1 |
| North-West | 6.0 | 57.2 | 14,716 | 17.4 |
| Pre-poll | 7.0 | 54.0 | 20,310 | 24.0 |
| Other votes | 8.5 | 51.6 | 11,584 | 13.7 |
Election results in Parramatta at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Owens will lose regardless of how impressive she is because western Sydney will be a hallows night for Labor. NSW is where the big swings to the coalition will be. Don’t be shocked if the statewide TPP at the federal election in NSW is something like 57-43% which I predict it will be. And there is no way Owens survives if the statewide swing is 6-7% only half of that would see her out the door
this is like Greenway…… but to assume 7% swing against Labor in nsw does not make sense…… if Labor held seats in 2013…. approx 10 years incumbent….. will be difficult for l,ibs to win…….. interesting how state federal figures coincide
I know you were scarred by 2019 Daniel, but 57/43 in NSW???? Not happening. At this rate, the Coalition might not even win the election.
Wreathy I wasn’t scarred because I don’t support Labor anymore, they have abandoned the working class by moving further to the left just like the UK Labour party did. Maybe 57/43 is a bit far sure. Maybe a 54/46 is more reasonable but anyone who seriously thinks Albanese has a chance is onto something. He is worse at appealing to voters than Bill Shorten.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/parramatta2022/comment-page-1#comment-753774
There is going to be a swing against the Coalition in New South Wales at the election. The Coalition bet its political fortunes on the New South Welsh Government`s lockdown avoidance strategy and AstraZeneca vaccines, the lockdown avoidance strategy has very visibly failed and AstraZeneca is generally not advised for under 60s in Australia, leading to a slow Vaccine rollout exacerbating the failure of the NSW Government`s lockdown avoidance strategy.
Anthony Albanese has demonstrated he is Left In Name Only (LINO) as leader with a rightward shift dumping of the negative gearing policy and now vowing not to repeal the stage 3 tax cuts.
Reposted excerpts from 2016 & 2019
winediamond April 27, 2019 at 11:16 am
I am reposting from 2016. Nothing much has changed
W of S
Julie Owens is by far the most impressive labor MP in the country.
No way the Libs will get this while she is around. Expect a very significant swing toward her. Well deserved too.
It is often said that she has never been promoted because she has no factional support. Whatever that means.
IMV it is because she would look, sound, & act so great, it would make the rest of them look even worse !!!!. I’d make her leader of the opposition in a heartbeat.
Wreathy of Sydney April 25, 2016 at 6:07 pm
I am aware of her skill and you’re completely right. She has well and truly proven herself quite capable, it takes a dedicated local and grassroots politician to not only buck the nationwide trend once in 2004 against an incumbent, but again in 2013.
winediamond April 25, 2016 at 6:30 pm
W of S
Owens is way more , & better than that even. Whenever i’ve seen her in action, she has been positive, & constructive.
(Somehow ) Julie also manages to talk without all those scripted party lines, repetitive policy statements.
Owens shows what can be done, in terms of communication, advocacy, & true political debate, & representation.
That it can done easily, with grace, charm, & good humour.
Julie fully demonstrates HOW adversarial debate, & politicking, accomplish little by simply refusing to engage in it, with her own absolute dignity.
A really remarkable woman. I am a huge fan.
Wreathy of Sydney April 27, 2019 at 1:33 pm
I agreed with you then Winediamond and I agree with you now.
at least winediamond understands the situation in Parramatta correctly. Shame they don’t understand the ethos of the Greens, also not understanding the ethics of inner-city voters who might vote Green considering Labor would rather take those sweet, sweet fossil fuel corporate donations.
Does anyone know if the Liberals actively targeted this seat in 2019?
I’m going to put this in the same category as Greenway – it has every chance of flipping, but Labor have managed to hang on here during tougher elections and I can’t see it being an easy Liberal win.
For all the political attention Western Sydney gets, it doesn’t seem like all that many seats actually hang in the balance. Maybe it was just the Labor bloodbath that was being predicted during the Gillard years, which never actually came to pass.
I think it’s also a case of extrapolating a couple of seats (think Lindsay and [under the old boundaries] Macarthur) to the area as a whole. Most of Western Sydney (barring the dying days of the NSW government circa 2010/Gillard years) is solidly Labor.
John
I doubt the Libs put much into this 2019. However Labor gave it everything they had. IIRC they had like 4000 odd volunteers manning phones + doorknockers etc. Even with all that they still got quite a pounding, & were flattered by Julie’s personal following, & vote.
In the next re- distribution i can’t see any possible contortion of boundaries that would enable Labor to retain both Greenway, & Parramatta. Both may well end up being unviable.
If you were just to aggregate the number of booths in each seat that labor has lost, probably many of them permanently, & distributed them in the most extremely prejudicial way. It is possible to come to a very different outcome in seats. I’LL elaborate further on the McMahon , & Lindsay threads.
Obviously the boundaries are a little different but Geoff Lee has made the state seat into a 60/40 seat for the Libs. Any configuration north/north west and the ALP will be toast. Same with Greenway. If they move south, it improves, but I don’t see the natural expansion in Parramatta moving south of the M4, which tends to be the political fault line.
Both Owens and Rowland two of the best local MPs the ALP have. But I don’t see them both winning this time.
Here’s one scenario for the next redistribution:
• Bennelong remains unchanged.
• Bradfield extends through Hornsby all the way to the Hawkesbury River.
• Berowra takes in all of Castle Hill and Baulkham Hills.
• Mitchell jumps across Old Windsor Road to take in the northern part of Greenway.
• Greenway sits mostly south of the M7 and takes in more of Cumberland and Parramatta LGAs.
• Parramatta is realigned north-south, extending to the southern boundary of Cumberland LGA.
Changes of such scale will be necessary due to the numerical situation. This is actually one of the more conservative approaches I can find.
How would Labor perform on the boundaries I just described?
If Parra is majority Cumberland/Parramatta LGA and Greenway doesn’t have all those Liberal-leaning North of M7 suburbs I think both would be a fair bit safer for Owens and Rowland and would probably be fine in all but the worst of climates for the ALP. Those kind of swaps would probably make Mitchell a bit less safer and Berowra safer, but both seats are safely Liberal so it doesn’t matter.
Now a matter of whether they can survive 2022. I think they can – but I am more bullish on Labor’s hopes than the Tally Room wisdom.
As far as I understand, the Sydney seats are generally under quota, while rural NSW (thanks to some under-estimating in the coastal seats especially) is over. So I’d expect Macarthur to re-gain Camden and maybe part of the Southern Highlands, and for all the other Sydney seats to get generally pulled southwards with it.
So I personally would expect Parramatta to move southwards and get better for Labor. The northern Sydney seats need a solid top-up, and northern Parramatta is probably the best place for that to happen.
Yeah basically the growth in the “urban” seats is near enough to a decline of one seat. Redrawing Hume to something like its old boundaries (i.e. none of the Sydney Metropolitan area) is probably the easiest way to top up the Sydney seats, but I think it might likely mean that Hughes gets drawn as a primarily Liverpool LGA seat, Werriwa largely Campbelltown and Macarthur largely Camden + Wollondilly. I can also see an argument for replacing one of the SW/outback seats with a Hunter/North Coast area seat.
Anyway that’s a discussion for two years from now. Who knows what might happen in that time.
Gentlemen
Thank you all for your various contributions, & views. If incremental solutions can be enacted then all of your views have a lot of validity. However there are push & pull factors from even as far as nsw borders , & previous inactions, & hopeless compromises that do need to be addressed.
Regardless of where lines are drawn, & where seats move. North of the Parramatta river, most of Greenway,& most areas west of the cumberland Hwy & certainly the M7 will be, in at least notionally Liberal seats. At least 70+% of what is presently in MACARTHUR will be drawn North, or in effect Werriwa will be drawn south.
WE also don’t know which seats may be abolished, & created.
regards to all
WD
The liberal party has a real shot in this seat.
My seat here. pre-COVID outbreak I would’ve said this had a real chance of flipping but now it’ll probably stay with the ALP. Obviously the election is a long way away but my prediction would be a labor hold with around the same margin.
Julie Owens won’t be recontesting next election and will retire.
Julie Owens has just announced she will not recontest the next election.
Looking forward to see everyone’s reanalysis on this seat now.
Labor Hold.
How long has she been the MP?
@Ryan Spencer
Since 2004.
As an open seat, Parramatta will be competitive but Labor may be favoured if current polling continues in their favour. Choice of candidate will be important, if the Liberals pick someone too conservative (like former MP Ross Cameron), they probably won’t have a good chance of winning due to the multicultural nature of this seat.
In response to Mark Mulcair, I dont think Macarthur can gain any more territory. It is already more than 10% over quota and will need to shrink.
The issue with Parramatta is that it is where the two Sydney’s meet like Greenway and that a small redistribution can change the complexion of the seat. During the Howard era it had Winston Hills and reached the M2 and often did not go further South than the M4. Going into the 2007 election it became a notional Liberal seat and even included Kings Langley. I am not sure what the next redistribution will do to the seat but if hypothetically the M2 becomes it northern boundary then it may be very winnable for the Liberals. This is possible if Mitchell needs to shed territory with the growth of new housing around Gables, Box Hill, North Kellyville and Rouse Hill.
Probably agree Nimalan, Mitchell is already 2.7% over quota based on latest statistics from AEC and projected enrolments from new housing developments will likely push it over 5% at the time of the next redistribution.
In contrast Parramatta is currently 8% under quota on AEC statistics. Redrawing Parramatta to match local council boundaries, taking in areas like North Rocks and Winston Hills whilst losing the Cumberland Council areas to balance the enrolment numbers will make it a Liberal leaning seat.
Yoh An
My assumption was essentially reversing the 2015 redistribution, with Macarthur regaining Camden but losing large parts of Campbelltown. So all of Macarthur, Werriwa, Fowler and McMahon getting pulled southwards again. Which in turn would probably pull Parramatta southwards and make it safer for Labor.
In 2022, on these boundaries, agree Owens’ retirement does make it an interesting seat.
I’ve looked at the numbers, and unless trends somehow reverse, the next NSW federal redistribution with not be “nips and tucks” in this part of Sydney. There will be a drastic redrawing of electorates in the northern half of Sydney.
Nicholas
Agreed – between Berowra, Bradfield, Mackellar, North Sydney and Warringah – there is about 0.4 – 0.5 of a seat too many. Berowra may be the candidate to go. This may also allow Robertson to come south of the Hawkesbury (as it did prior to 1968) so that an extra seat can be slid in somewhere in the lower Hunter. Parramatta would probably move north and become comfortably conservative.
Robertson was on part of the North Shire as well as the central Coast pre 1968
Crossing the hawkesbury river may be seen as going against the aec criteria (boundaries must use rivers or other geographic features). Then again the previous Nsw redistribution had cook cross the Georges river.
Having Robertson include Cowan and Berowra as well as the southern central coast may not be that bad, it would be like Beenleigh combined with northern parts of gold coast such as coomera and ormeau
It would be shocking if Robertson were redrawn to straddle the Hawkesbury River. Not only would this violate a clear and long-standing boundary, it would probably carve up Gosford in an unsatisfactory way.
With the retirement of Julie Owens this seat is now in play for the LNP. If Labor have a bad night this seat could flip.
Not a chance Bob under current circumstances. Labor will hold this and should they win government as expected then I expect this to be in play in 2025/2028.
Owens held onto this throughout 2004-2022 because she is a fighter for Parramatta. So yes her personal vote will cost Labor 2-3% on the TPP but that wouldn’t be quite enough and any national swing to Labor will negate this.
I am interested to see who the major parties select as their candidate . Tanveer Ahmed who attempted to run for Reid in 2019 but grew up in Toongabbie maybe a good candidate for this seat given the demographics. Also Durga Owen who ran in Seven Hills last time at a state level for ALP may run as well.
Julie Owens is retiring so this seat will become more marginal. Labor will need to hold onto seats like Parramatta to win government.
John T
You’ve mentioned a bucketload of seats where there’s private polling.
Where’d you get this data from?
Union lawyer Abha Devasia is rumoured to be the frontrunner in the Labor preselection in Parramatta the Dailey Telegraph reported.
I agree with Ryan, Where is this private polling coming from?
One of the possible Liberal gains off Labor. Owens didn’t seem like a strong MP but given she got elected as one of the few ALP pick ups in 2004 and managed to hang on in 2013, she must have been doing something right. If you take away her likely personal vote you have a line ball seat.
Labor did well in the City of Parramatta election getting 7/15 (+ a green councillor). But Liberals weren’t running at all, and this area really highlights the difference in voting intentions between tiers of government.
I would like to wait until final selection of candidates for both major parties are made before making a final prediction. However, as mentioned in an earlier comment these boundaries are unfavourable to the Libs compared to the Howard years which make it more challenging.
Labor should run Professor Brian Owler. He is one of the top neurosurgeons at Westmead Hospital and former head of the AMA.
Unfortunately, he was wasted in Bennelong when Shorten was leader
ALP does not need more Union and Electorate Office hacks in Parliament, I think there is enough there already.
Owens whilst a good MP early on, has been in autopilot mode since Labor returned to opposition in 2013, and has seen the margin slowly dissipate. Geoff Lee, who is the Liberal state member of the same name, has managed to make the seat safer after every election.
It seems he has been persuaded to stay at state in exchange for greater ministerial responsibilities.
Nimalan is right re: boundaries and there is a massive difference between Parramatta (Federal) and Parramatta (State). Federal over-laps the State seat of Granville, which the Liberal Party had only won in 2011, while the State seat has Parramatta itself in the south-western corner and most of the seat focused around North Parramatta up to Oatlands (which is solid Liberal Territory).
Even with Owens Retiring, these boundaries are so favourable to Labor that I can’t see them losing this seat.
Any news on candidates?
Demographics are shifting here and Owens long term incumbency really had builtup the vote. It is one to keep an eye on.
Supposedly as this seat voted against same-sex marriage it should be key Liberal target but they haven’t even endorsed a candidate yet?
Voters would have forgotten about gay marriage as it is already a few years past and no major party (or big minor parties) would repeal it.
How can gay marriage be an issue…. after the recent vote in parliament… you cannot run on one thing in North Sydney and a different thing else where…. The Teals would love that. This seat on current boundaries is a labor inclined marginal. It is interesting to compare the state seat of Parramatta to this seat
“you cannot run on one thing in North Sydney and a different thing else where….”
Bill Shorten tried that in 2019 and wasn’t that an electoral success in Queensland!!
Palaszczuk did too, and apparently it was :/