ALP 6.4%
Incumbent MP
Milton Dick, since 2016.
Geography
Oxley covers the southwestern suburbs of the City of Brisbane and eastern parts of the City of Ipswich. Suburbs include Redbank, Forest Lake, Richlands, Durack, Inala, Jamboree Heights and Jindalee.
History
The seat of Oxley was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. After first being held by the Liberal Party for a decade, it has almost always been won by the ALP, except for the 1996 election, when it was won by disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, who later formed the One Nation party.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1956 until his defeat at the 1961 election, when he was defeated by former police officer and Labor candidate Bill Hayden.
Hayden served as Member for Oxley for 27 years. He joined Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1972, and served as Treasurer for the final five months of the Whitlam government in 1975. Hayden was elected Leader of the Opposition after Gough Whitlam’s resignation after the 1977 election, and led the party to an improved position in 1980.
Hayden faced a leadership threat from former ACTU president Bob Hawke, who had entered Parliament in 1980. Hawke failed to win a ballot in 1982. In early 1983 Hayden resigned as leader and was replaced by Hawke, only hours before Malcolm Fraser called an early election. After Bob Hawke’s win, Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister. He served in this role until he was appointed Governor-General in 1988, at which point he resigned from Parliament.
The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Les Scott. Scott held the seat for the remainder of the Hawke/Keating government, up to the 1996 election. The Liberal Party preselected former Ipswich councillor Pauline Hanson as their candidate in 1996. Shortly before the election she was quoted in local papers criticising government assistance for indigenous Australians, which resulted in her disendorsement as a Liberal candidate. With the ballot papers already printed with the Liberal Party’s name attached to Hanson, she gained a high profile and managed to win the seat with a large swing.
Hanson was a prominent independent MP and, in 1997, founded the One Nation party in support of her political views. The party had a strong result at the Queensland state election in early 1998 and she was predicted to perform strongly at the next federal election. Her hopes fell short at the 1998 election, where One Nation only managed to elect a single Senator, despite a national result of over 8%. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. Despite coming first on primary votes, Hanson lost due to the ALP and Liberal Party swapping preferences.
Pauline Hanson repeatedly run for election after losing her seat in 1998, and finally returned to parliament as a senator in 2016.
Hanson’s seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he held the seat until his retirement in 2016. Ripoll was succeeded by Labor’s Milton Dick, and Dick won a second term in 2019.
Assessment
Oxley is reasonably safe for Labor. They would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Milton Dick | Labor | 38,501 | 42.5 | -3.4 |
| Russell Bauer | Liberal National | 31,290 | 34.6 | +2.4 |
| Steven Purcell | Greens | 10,535 | 11.6 | +2.8 |
| Janet Lindbom | One Nation | 5,701 | 6.3 | -1.9 |
| Ian Ferguson | United Australia Party | 2,368 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Scott Moerland | Conservative National Party | 1,474 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Mike Head | Socialist Equality Party | 654 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 4,516 | 4.8 | +0.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Milton Dick | Labor | 51,050 | 56.4 | -2.6 |
| Russell Bauer | Liberal National | 39,473 | 43.6 | +2.6 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Ipswich have been grouped as ‘South-West’. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been split into South-East and North.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 58.3% in the south-west and 67.3% in the south-east. The LNP managed 52.4% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 13.0 | 58.3 | 19,362 | 21.4 |
| South-East | 11.0 | 67.3 | 18,950 | 20.9 |
| North | 13.6 | 47.6 | 12,401 | 13.7 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 52.4 | 25,590 | 28.3 |
| Other votes | 11.7 | 54.0 | 14,220 | 15.7 |
Election results in Oxley at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
Safe Labor seat, which is a rare and valuable thing in Queensland.
Milton Dick is a nobody at best and a regressive millstone at worst. I have absolutely no idea what value he provides the ALP, while there’s huge demand for leadership contenders in Queensland.
If Labor want to turn their fortunes around, they may do well to parachute someone with leadership potential into this seat (someone much more compelling than Chalmers). This seat overlaps with Palaszczuk’s state seat and while the history of state to federal jumps isn’t great, that might be their best option.
I’ve never agreed with this logic. More often than not, whoever the party brass *thinks* is leadership material is just whoever they personally happen to like. If you want new real leadership material, stop protecting dead-weight, open up preselections, give fairly-preselected candidates the backing they deserve and let them *make* some safe seats.
Oh no please don’t be fooled by the margin, Remember this did flip in 1996 even with Pauline Hanson being dis-endorsed, I am predicting a 1975-1996 style wipe-out for Labor in QLD, the LNP is likely to match Newman 2012 levels at the federal election. Don’t be fooled because Albanese has absolutely no appeal up here.
Labor are slight favourites here but it will be very close. Nobody believes me but we shall see! Election night will likely be a shocker again and the coalition are being underestimated. the coalition are winning 90+ seats they might come close to 100. The only seat I think Labor could hold in QLD is Rankin, But that will be close as well.
The premier visiting Tokyo certainly won’t help Labor either, It isn’t an important trip, I don’t care about the Olympics being held here it isn’t important as pandemic recover. Most people around here in SEQLD seem to love Scott Morrison at least that is the feedback I have been getting on Facebook, the only people that don’t seem to like him are young folks.
The Coalition could win this seat, Please do not write them off here, It could happen! Under 2012 state figures not a single seat would have been won federally for Labor with maybe the exception of Griffith (which will fall)
QLD is a no mans land for Labor federally. Expect 80% of QLD seats to be called within 2 hours of polls closing. Most of the so called marginals will be called quickly. No contest.
Oxley in 1996 was a very different seat….it was basically what Blair is now. You can’t really compare it to the Hanson era seat.
Close to 100 seats for LNP… Daniel you’re kidding yourself or dreaming. I predict Coalition to win 74-78 seats.
Yes spot on
John
Couldn’t agree with you more. Find a “paratrooper”!. Labor supposedly has two fabulous senators, Murray Watt, & Anthony Chisolm. If they are really so shit hot , why not let one of them have a crack ?. Then they can find one of those outstanding women they are always banging on about take the senate spot.
The reason Dick is there is cause his brother is QLD treasurer. Paul Murray calls Cameron “Dick by name, Dick by nature”!. Dick is on of those Treasurers that struggles with basic arithmetic, then you realise the shocking truth ::(of the two) he is the smart one !. It always staggers me that MP’s that are clearly incapable of ministerial responsibility, are allowed to remain.
Furtive Lawngnome
Your correct. However before any of your suggestion can happen. There needs to be a leader who is prepared to call time on cretins
Alot of rot on in this section of comments. Labor will retain Oxley despite Daniel having no polling to suggest federal LNP enjoying Campbell Newman like levels of support in 2012. Its funny Daniel condemns Anastasia Palaszczuk trip to Japan but doesn’t mention Scott Morrison took a leisure trip through England.
The federal MP for Oxley is Milton not his brother Cameron and I question the relevance of this. And for all of winediamond deriding of senior state Ministers in Labor (Cameron Dick, Steven Miles etc) they still continue to easily spank their state LNP opponents every election.
Labor retains.
The commentariat here are far too bullish on the Coalition’s chances. It’s almost as if 2019 was so devastatingly surprising that it has provoked an opposite reaction.
Remember the lessons of 1993 and 2004 – there is no such thing as invincibility in politics.
Polls don’t decide elections voters do. Remember QLD polled 50-50 before the last election? It was 8 points wrong, So if we apply the same 8 point error to the current polls you get 61-39. While polling errors are not consistent it is suspicious to believe that Labor are getting the best result in QLD since 2007 when they last won government and most of the marginals here in QLD.
Don’t assume 2019 was a high watermark for the LNP. 1996,1977 and 1975 were all better for the coalition and worse for Labor. Interestingly Oxley did retain for Labor in the Fraser years (Someone tell me what the boundaries were when Bill Hayden held this seat) Everyone assumed 2013 was a high watermark for the coalition and it was not.
There is still room for improvement in QLD for the LNP. Very confident of a landslide for the LNP. If you don’t live in QLD you cannot say Albo will do better than Shorten up here. Actually come up here to the marginale and Actually talk to voters which is something I have done and they will tell you.
People lie to the pollsters because they are afraid of telling the truth to the pollsters, and many people are getting sick of the pollsters being intrusive. I still defend my predictions and yes I still think this is in play.
There are certain posters who very obviously just project their own personal biases onto entire electorates and/or do nothing but constant, thinly veiled advocacy as analysis, but given that Labor’s entire strategy seems to hinge on electoral Bradburyism, I don’t see an easy path to victory. Maybe there should be a thread just for general election soothsaying. I suggest Cook since it’s the most boring seat. Are you okay with that Ben?
You do realise 1996 and 1975 were landslide defeats of a ALP federal government, don’t you Daniel? And 1977 was affected by the 1975 circumstances. With a rare QLD leader of the ALP, I wasn’t thinking 2013 was a high water mark for LNP in QLD, but it was in NSW.
What are your views on NSW – despite not living here? I see you say “ALP aim to hold on here” on other pages. The way St. Gladys’s is going, Reid might be looking in trouble….
Political Nightwatchman
Was i not clear on who was who ?. I can tell one Dick, from another (Dick) !. Electoral success is no determiner of ministerial competence, or successs. I would have thought as a Labor cheerleader that you would have had some interest in getting rid of timeservers, & lackeys ? Surely?.” As the great sage Richo says “Never hang onto a mug. They will always take you down “!.
Equally a long term govt is not necessarily a good govt.
Comparing the validity of O.S. trips is puerile, & irrelevant. If they would go & never return, then i’d be interested !. Steven Miles IS ABSOLUTELY the national champion Wanker. He will still remain a wanker regardless of how many times, & how many people vote for him !. It is shocking, even insulting, that you would accuse me of “derision” ?. I would NEVER be so mild !. Even my (still overpoweringly vital ) 85 year old mother “the Valkyrie” accused me of “going off half-cocked” the other night.! I thundered back at her “that is a disgraceful thing to say. I NEVER GO OF HALF-COCKED, IF I GO OFF, IT IS ALL THE WAY!” The Valkyrie did chuckle as she agreed “Well yes”!
Hope that clears a few things up for you mate
cheers WD
Labor hold
Hs, Reid isn’t a contest. safe Liberal. It’s like Banks. The seat has moved away from Labor in recent years (Like the overlapping state seats) and Fraser was actually the incumbent prime minister in 1975. Voters rewarded the incumbent Fraser government in 1975, Indeed 1996 was the first time since 1949 an incumbent Labor government lost.
Gladys is the best NSW premier since Neville Wran. She is doing a magnificent job and she too will be re-elected in a landslide.
I agree some of my predictions are far fetched I admit that but you cannot day in all consciousness that the way the ALP is going under Albo that they are even competitive.
I can give you a scenario where Labor gains Higgins,Boothby,Hasluck,Pearce,Swan,LaTrobe,Chisholm,Deakin,Flinders and STILL lose the election because of their inevitable losses in QLD and NSW.
Even if it’s somehow a close election 20+ seats could change hands between the 2 parties. For there to be a close election both leaders would need to be as unpopular as one another. Morrison leads the preferred PM so he is more popular
I wouldn’t be surprised if winediamond and Daniel are just paid LNP hacks because at least a normal, sane LNP supporter would be knowledgeable enough to know there isn’t Buckley’s chance of the LNP winning Oxley. Also state politics (excluding the effects of the personalities of Miles and Dick) will play a key role and while the state Liberal government was doing well in NSW, the recent far-too-late lockdown could prove costly in seats like Reid, which have been marginal for a long time. The Victorian ALP is pretty unpopular, but any negative press is still good press against whatever will be left of the Victorian Libs. The WA and QLD L/NP parties are also not cutting through (as opposed to 2019) and the only seats which are definitely safe are seats like Cook, Kennedy and Clark, where the local member is so entrenched they won’t lose until they retire, resign or die. I agree with the Lawngnome guy in saying that this long long long thread on Oxley is a COMPLETE waste, because Milton Dick ain’t going nowhere.
Leave Winediamond out of it – we have the same local polling booth and he thinks Zimmerman is a waste of space – so that’s good enough for me.
I’ve set up a generic election open thread to go up in the morning.
Ryan Spencer
Now you really have gone way, way, way too far !. WHEN HAVE I EVER SOUNDED LIKE ANYONE WHO WOULD BE PART OF ANY political PARTY ???. Let alone a “HACK” How dare you ? Do i fucking sound like a “HACK” ? Well !? How insulting. It would be like me calling you a fascist conservative
actually it is worse. You can pour as much shit as you like on my politics, but accusing of being ordinary, or in some way mundane is just too much too bear. How dare you denigrate my writing, or wit by calling me a “HACK”
How ridiculous & completely absurd
Seriously what is your problem (s) ?
are you a VICTORIAN, or some other sub-species.
High Street
Thank’s you are a good mate. Please walk round for a drink sometime my number is 0425365419
Maybe moderate could join us inside the 5kms zone ?
cheers WD
Ben
Is that really necessary ? Please don’t . It is your call of course, but i’m concerned in a number of ways.
Won’t that diminish the main electoral threads ? Disorder can be creative, & order can become uninteresting.
cheers WD
Just to clarify something. I am not a party hack please don’t use that label please, I am interested in politics as much as you are, as much as everyone here is, We are entitled to have our own opinions without attacking one another and that’s how it should be
There is a reason I believe this is vulnerable because 6% isn’t safe. Most of the marginals here in QLD swung more than 6% so if we see swings like that again across SEQLD Dick is in trouble. I never said the LNP would win as I do think Labor are favourites. But just not overwhelminly. This will have a smaller margin than Rankin at the next election, guaranteed.
I’m not even a member of any political party but traditionally I want Labor to win just not under it’s current direction and leader. Labor is visionless and uninspiring as of 2021, compare Albo to Kevin 07 and Obama 08. Huge difference, at least those leaders actually inspired people.
WD – stuck in lockdown in Warringah presently mate (there are worse places to be). Lets catch up on LIberation Day!!
Article from Alice Workman (strewth) in the OZ today
“”Oh no, there’s a soap opera-sized feud within the Dick Dynasty! Federal politicians were understandably peeved last week when they learnt via text that Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk had banned them from returning home until September 8. No more so than Labor MP Milton Dick, who just happens to be the younger brother of Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick. Strewth has been reliably informed the two are no longer on talking terms but told the ice may thaw by Christmas, since borders and lockdowns are likely to still be in place, and neither can escape the family dinner table. Palaszczuk has quietly reversed her two-week pause on arrivals from the ACT, NSW and Victoria — but only for “essential worker” politicians and not their staff. And yet … a group of football WAGS flew into the Sunshine State on a charter flight from Sydney on Monday. A Queensland Health directive seen by Strewth specifies: “Government elected representatives from declared Australian hotspots who are travelling to Queensland to perform official duties are permitted to come to Queensland despite the two-week pause”. That’s news to the Morrison ministry. Strewth’s sources say Peter Dutton, Stuart Robert and Karen from Home Affairs are still waiting for the green light to go home when parliament rises on Thursday. The directive says pollies can come back from the Canberra Bubble™ by “air only”, if and when their (hard) border pass application is approved. Queensland residents must home-quarantine for 14 days and can leave for only a “limited number of essential reasons (such as seeking medical assistance or escaping harm)”.”
Well we all know who is going to win this fight — Mother Dick !!. ” “Sort this out or neither of youse’ll be coming to Chrissie!!”.
Dick has demonstrated why he is totally unsuitable for high office. He has “little brother syndrome “. or more precisely he id]s a massive sook, & cry-baby, & mama’s boy !!. “Mum Cameron’s being a dick (head) again !”.
The sense of entitlement is just awesomely out there. Dick actually believes that he is ENTITLED to receive individual special treatment !.Dick cannot accept that HE IS NOT ENTITLED. WOW!!.
Yes ,it’s certainly true that wine diamond would know all about Dicks.
Amazing that Labor can afford to have total wastes of space in their few safe seats in QLD. if Labor lose they should parachute Annastacia into this seat.
The Courier Mail are reporting that Chris Green has been dropped as the LNP candidate and he has quit the parrty altogether. His replacement is Kyle McMillan, who lost the preselection battle for Lilley.