North Sydney – Australia 2022

I feel people still forget to mention that there was a slight Turnbull factor in some of these inner metropolitan liberal seats which was definitely more of a factor in Melbourne but can’t be ruled out for some a Sydney seats hence why I’m still sceptical to see which way the swing goes and if it goes to Labor it honestly can’t see it going more then 1.5%. Ideally the liberals were supposed to “lose” the election in which the swings you see in some of these inner seats I feel would match an election losing swing or were a little better then it if you compare to 2007. I’ve grown up the seat next door in all my 25 years of life and just and have gotten to know various people and personally still fail to see how Labor even get close to seats like these even when the libs don’t have the strongest candidate. Also I feel it’s important to mention not everyone is a single issue voter in the seat that just cares about climate here.

Labor will be targeting this now I think given they’re not going to win working-class electorates like Lindsay any time soon.

@Nicholas Weston,

Only a little bit – the swing in Bradfield was slightly more than North Sydney in 2019 though. 4.5% vs 4.3%. It’s obviously the education effect, so I think over the long term more in North Sydney – there’s an awful lot of Barristers around where I live! No matter what you think of lawyers, they are well educated..

To those that say North Sydney changes significantly if it expands North – the first booths to go will be the Roseville booths and they are not the teeth of Liberal territory – they are not Wahroonga or St Ives. and the current results are with no local ALP presence, even on polling day. And next would be Lindfield. Swapping Lindfield for Hunters Hill would be a net positive for ALP in North Sydney. Castle Cove could be a problem though..

I just saw that Roseville East booth swung >10% in 2019! Even more than Cammeray!! Winediamond, what did happen in 2019 – even our booth moves 5.4%. We they revert to the mean or is it a trend..?

@Pez,
Agree – I mentioned it in one of the first entries in this thread to Ben.
As to the rest of your comment – maybe its a “shy Labor voter” effect??

@High Street

Yep, Castle Cove…

What sets Castle Cove apart from nearby suburbs is that it has a much older population. Looks like a nice place to retire!

I used to go running around Castle Cove at 6:30am when I trained for City2Surf. The golf course has a lot of ducks and the Thai restaurant is good value. There’s a good bike track for the kids at the Oval. It’s a pain to get back to a decent bus stop though. But I digress…

There are a lot of older houses that haven’t been worked on since the 50’s. The public school has good enrolments though. It really shouldn’t be that much different to the suburbs to the West – its safer for the Government than Northbridge! Maybe there will be generational turnover in coming years.

Nicholas Weston
Firstly i’m not sure the typification of “leftward shift in North Sydney” is an (entirely?) accurate one. My view of the fed MP (TZ) is not exactly a secret !. NS has also had an influx of young & mobile voters who are relatively less sympathetic to the libs.

What would apply almost evenly to NS, Bradfield, Mckellar , more to Waringah, less to Berowra, & not at all to Mitchell, Cook Hughes, is a recent phenomena. Starting in 2016 -2019 is a peeling off of “soft”liberal voters in sympathy with various issues that CC ALARMISM, catastrophism etc is EMBLEMATIC of. CC has for these voters overshadowed even ‘Cost of Living” issues, or money is not a factor. It has become more than a cause, it has become an identity.

Please don’t ask me to explain this viewpoint, or position, because i have absolutely zero empathy with it. Or for that matter, the wealthy, privileged, self indulgent, inwardly focused, elite that are so stupid, or socially irresponsible. I despise these fortunate & self righteous hypocrites. Their preaching lecturing self congratulatory moral superiority, & piousness makes me nauseous, & enraged (in case you hadn’t already guessed !)

Fortunately there numbers are finite, so instinctively i would guess they have already shifted their vote, or perhaps will this time (2022?). In short this is a choice they can make because they can AFFORD to, & BUGGER (those) most that can’t afford to.

When , not if, Opaque Scientific duplicity, fabrication, & distortion is exposed, the cost starts to be assessed, & the abuses recognised. Then the weak minded , gullible people (fools) will reconsider their choices. Especially when they begin to comprehend the “Legacy” (a generational mountain of debt, & century of opportunity cost) they have bequeathed to their own children’s entire generation. They are the morally bankrupt arch enablers.
END OF RANT. hope i did (Somehow) answer your inquiry Nicholas
cheers WD

there is a whole field of how demographic change effects votes…… good examples….. Banks Grey(sa) Sutherland shire…… Canada bay council…….Lithgow Bathurst…… some of the North sure…… Eastern suburbs of Melbourne

I’ve created a map based on WD’s suggestion and uploaded it here.

The resulting boundaries in the North West (the part of Sydney I am most familiar with) make sense to me, even though visually they may seem quite ugly. I’d be worried that “it’s ugly” might be a reason for the committee to completely dismiss the idea.

I’m a former resident of Cherrybrook, and admittedly, I am a little uncomfortable with placing Cherrybrook in a division that extends deep into the Ku-ring-gai area. But at least it’s united with Beecroft, Pennant Hills, and the corridor up to Hornsby.

Nice work! Where did you get the data?

Seems very Liberal friendly though, I imagine that the new way of drawing Blacktown would create one ultra-safe Labor seat and one safe Liberal one (whereas now we have one ultra-safe Labor seat and one marginal Labor one), whereas that Parramatta would likely be a Liberal seat. And the seat that goes is the Indy one. I guess there’d be an extra Labor seat in the Western Suburbs, though.

That seems like a much better option to me though. I could never quite understand how Blacktown was in the same seat as Kellyville.

Yeah that’s not the case; Kellyville has always been in Mitchell. Though other than LGA boundaries there isn’t a lot of common interest between Blacktown and say The Ponds, in fairness.

Biased whinging aside though you are correct that that way of drawing the Blacktown LGA makes more sense than the current one.

Whoops, my mistake. You got where I was going though!

As per previous comment, I’d rotate all the north shore seats about 1/3 of a seat, anticlockwise.

LGA’s boundaries make most sense for State electorates, but not always sensible for Federal electorates – either geographically or politically. Crows Nest in same electorate as Queenscliffe but not Naremburn? Northbidge in same seat at St. Ives?

Might be a good solution for the west – not much good for the north

@Chaisa

Geospatial data from the ABS, which I then joined with projected enrolment data from the NSW state redistribution. These projections were for 2023, whereas the federal redistribution will use projections with a target date around 2028. So the numbers could turn out to be quite different, but at least it gives us some sense of what will need to change and what will and won’t be possible.

I concur with your assessment on the political implications – Bennelong, Greenway, and Parramatta become harder for Labor to win. But as you point out, there will need to be a new seat, likely in southwest Sydney.

I do wonder if Steggall could contest North Sydney on those boundaries. The core Manly area is still there and she won Mosman and Neutral Bay quite comfortably. Would have a lot of new constituents to introduce herself to though.

@Wreathy

Agreed that the current Chifley-Greenway boundary divides Blacktown LGA the wrong way. It may have made sense 20 years ago, but not today with how the area has evolved. The northern half of Blacktown LGA in many ways has more in common with the other side of (Old) Windsor Road than the other side of the M7. I say this as someone who has lived on both sides of (Old) Windsor Road – not sure if that makes me authoritative or biased on this matter!

@High Street

I’m trying to figure out what you’re aiming for. How is the seat straddling the Spit Bridge configured?

problem boundary changes are more about numbers rather than communities of interest…..

Sub-areas updated to split Hunters Hill and Lane Cove.

Nicholas Weston
Really impressive Map. Nothing like an accurate image of all the ideas. It remains to be seen whether the AEC will be bold enough to do anything like this.
What do you think the chances are of the AEC messing up your nice neat Greenway by pinching 12000 voters for Macquarie !?. (instead of from Lindsay , as you’ve suggested !)). They could then take Mitchell, or Greenway further south.
cheers WD

Ben
Two candidates to add: Victor Kline and Kylea Tink.

Kylea Tink is the ‘Voices of’ candidate. Don’t like her chances. Whatever else Zimmerman is, he’s done everything he possibly can in the media to *sound* nice and moderate compared to Abbott, even if that’s an entirely meaningless distinction when considering his voting record. When there’s a contest between perception and reality, it’s hardly a contest at all.

@Furtive Lawngnome

I reckon this will be the big test of the voices movement – whether they are able to capitalise on the current lack of action on climate change and turn it into enough of a bogeyman in order to win these “small-l” seats, as previously the crux of warringa and Indi were the unpopular local members.

They have proven in indi that once a voices movement has been established is is very difficult to uproot, as even the resignation of Cathy McGowan, the removal of Mirabella from the running and a large liberal campaign was unable to change the result.

If they can pull it off then Goldstein, North Sydney and most especially Wentworth come into effect.

If not then their best bet is Hume.

From today it’s a 5 way contest in North Sydney.

https://twitter.com/victorklineTNL/status/1480727096221585412?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This is my seat and though it is changing over time as are many inner city seats towards the left side of politics, it is a bridge too far and will be a Liberal retain.

My tea leaves are telling me that Zimmerman’s probably a bit more precarious were the election were held tomorrow, but I still think he’s pretty safe compared to the other high profile Voices target seats. If Voices end up winning any this year, and I think they probably will, expect Wentworth to fall the easiest, then Kooyong and/or Goldstein after (and maybe even Flinders if they do really well). Zimmerman has a higher margin than any of them and the moderate faction of the liberal party, such as it is, still somewhat exists in the NSW Liberal branches, and branch supporters usually form the core of the volunteer base.

I think Helen Haines is quite vulnerable honestly. Penny Ackery has no hope.

@Furtive Lawngome

I agree with north Sydney being of a lower likelihood then Wentworth or Goldstein, especially when compared to the fact that Wilsons portfolio connects him with climate change, Wentworth has had an independent very recently, that longstanding members for Goldstein and Wentworth have endorsed the candidates there and that the candidates are probably well received by the public.

I meant in the sense that a lot of the arguments from the voices side were that the moderate liberals really haven’t achieved anything on climate and even though they talk a big game they still are bound to vote with the nationals or lose their career. The idea is then to tie each individual member in these constituencies to the ultimate bugbear – Barnaby Joyce – and then fight the kind of anti-member campaign that Indi and Warringa were fought on

I disagree with Kooyong though, it really does seem like if there were are large swing against frydenburg, even though that might by majority go to the voices campaign there, the labor preferences would still be enough to tip the greens over the voices – why would labor preference someone who it is not known who they will support on confidence, then a green member who has pledged to not support the libs.

Regarding penny ackery, you might be right, but my comment was only on the possibility that if it turns out “small-l liberals” are happy to live with the cognitive dissonance of a member who says one thing and votes another on climate change, and that Indi and Warringa were won off the backs of unpopular local members, then Angus Taylor seems the only member who is divisive in that regard. It is interesting to see there is also a “vote angus out group” as well as a “voices group” – reminiscent of Warringa – pushing against him. Aside from that maybe Tim Wilson might be under threat in that scenario, due to his portfolio.

Its actually harder for an IND to win a marginal seat than a safe seat (I don’t know how many times I – and more notably, Kevin Bonham – have said this).

Kooyong will be very hard for an IND to win as the combined ALP and GRN vote is much to high for them to finish 2nd.

Personally, I’m very skeptical that any ‘independent liberal’ candidates will come close to winning. In 2019 when there was such a focus on CC, nearly all fell short inluding Kerryn Phelps as an incumbent. Do people really believe in this age of Covid anxiety and economic insecurity that the CC issue will really take the same prominence? Even in seats like this which can afford to take a less necessiotus perspective, the margins are large and the incumbents moderate.

@Wreathy of Syodney

Possibly so, but it is important to note that none of the unsucessful candidates had the “voices” framework behind them – which, while seeming arbitrary, seems to create a large number of energised volunteer’s from local communities when attempted. Another thing is labor supporters might be more inclined to side with independents given labor’s reluctance to stick up for renewable energy, more easily allowing independents to get over them in the 2pp. Also agree with sentiments repeated elsewhere on this site that every election will be a climate election until the issue is solved.

which part of the ALP policy is Labor “reluctance to stand up for renewable energy”? Regardless of what you think about the policy and target in total, the renewable energy part is strong.

sextus – There’s no question that Labor would much prefer to work with Voices (and CA and other independents like Andrew Wilkie) than Greens. The independents will ask for fewer concessions (if any) and they aren’t threatening Labor’s own seats. The Greens absolutely are, and will be keen to stamp their mark on any minority Labor government. And of course Labor blames the Greens, dillusively you might well say, for their recent string of federal defeats. So they’ll do pretty everything to avoid even the perception that they’re empowering the Greens. Of course even if they manage to avoid it in the House the Senate’s gonna be a real dog’s breakfast.

HS – Presumably because of the impression that Labor/Greens ‘can’t’ win? Fair point if so but that’s a perception shaped by the campaigns themselves – former Labor and Greens voters will abandon both en masse if they feel they have to, which happened in Warringah and Wentworth (Warringah now being fairly marginal on 2PP actually). 2019 notwithstanding, Voices has the best campaign infrastructure in Kooyong according to no. of volunteers and recent seat polling (Voices’ own seat polling, but still). Zoe Daniel seems to have a similarly impressive team.

In any case both Wilson and Frydenberg have spent a lot of time attacking Voices, as well as Labor and the Greens. Both are in serious danger regardless of losing to *someone*.

Wreathy – Hard to say how ‘important’ climate change will be. It’s usually a vote winner for Labor but they’ve made indications of wanting to keep it more out of the media cycle. I suspect the Liberals will have a harder time framing it as antagonistic to immediate economic concerns though compared to 2013, especially in the cities. The Liberals’ general reputation for economic stewardship has taken a battering and I doubt they want to spend too much time talking about their handling of the pandemic either. Voices and Greens *will* be talking about CC as much as they can, and even Labor will be stumping with it at the doorstep.

FL – I take your point but that is the exact difference between a marginal seat and a safe one. In a safe seat, the PV of the losing major party is <30% and can be cannibalised down to the teens with little effort on occasions. In a marginal seat, the PV is typically in the 30's,and 45+ after preferences. Much harder to get the PV % down below 25%. And if it not below 25%, it hard for an IND to come second – the total needs to add to 100% after all.

Lets have some predictions for what the combined ALP and GRN primary vote will be in North Sydney?? And then assume 80% of GRN PV to ALP and 10% to LIB.

Safe seat margin 10% plus fs about 6 to9..
Normally marginal is below 6. Under normal circumstances very hard to win a party’s safe seats unless the voices of or independents distrupt the classic pattern. Then again in seats like North Sydney a normal contest. Will return a dog named rover as a mp. So a non typical result will only occur if the erstwhile liberal voters really want change. The lib vote I think needs to drop below 45%

@High Street

Sorry, you are quite right, I meant to say climate policy.

@ Furtive Lawngnome

I am quite aware Labour absolutely despise greens and have said they don’t want to work with them, my point lies that they know that greens will always back them on supply and confidence or lose their entire base and credibility, As they have already said they have no business at compromising with the greens legislatively and want to fix climate through the ministry. I know they would rather have a voices candidate who backs them in there, but given that they wont be able to get their legislation through the senate anyway it seems at the end of the day backing an independent in such a close election would be ridiculous and you are trading a 100% chance at getting into government with no drawbacks with a 50% or less as the majority of the small-l constituencies would rather their candidates form a liberal government anyway with no legislative consequences.

I can’t currently see if Trent Zimmerman is listed as a declared candidate for North Sydney on Tallyroom, but after last week’s Willoughby Liberal pre-selection, if he is, perhaps he should be removed…..

High Street
Perhaps you won’t be surprised but i’ll second that ! Is it possible little Trent could face a pre selection challenge in the future ?
cheers wd

Alex Hawke and Morrison have been a bit distracted in the last week from their plot to delay Liberal pre-sections as late as possible – but it’s a handy plan when it means by doing nothing you are doing exactly what you want to do. How that plan works in leaving time for a pre-selection in North Sydney we shall see.

A March election looks out of the question though if there is no movement in next couple of weeks. When is Warringah pre-selection??

High Street
Sorry i’m the last person that would know about Warringah. My instincts were always that the PM would give himself maximum time on the ground, so May as late as possible.
cheers wd

WD – it was just a general question for everyone – I’m sure I have seen a date set for it as it was put back to allow St. Gladys to nominate.

Is Hughie out there? He said on the Willoughby by-election thread that he was a local Liberal member and Trent was very worried. What local Liberal (or not so local) is going to challenge him….

I’ve assumed all sitting members are running again, unless they’ve announced their retirement. Any reason to think Zimmerman won’t be running?

He’ll run but will be challenged
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-faces-factional-infighting-as-four-sitting-mps-confront-preselection-challenges-20210524-p57ur8.html

Problem for Zimmerman is that he missed out on a ministerial appointment in the last reshuffle which would’ve given him more of a profile.
He’s also aligned heavily with Michael Photios, and his brief tenure in NSW Liberal HQ did not garner him many friends, especially the way he won pre-selection.
Politically speaking, I’ve never understood why parties waste safe/blue ribbon seats on nobodies; this is where you should be putting your high profile people in, as this then allows them to campaign more broadly across the state or country.
Perhaps he will find out about a pre-selection challenge via telegram

And that’s fair enough Ben, but one day, and possibly soon, you are going to be forced to rescind the information/guidance/statement that a sitting MP is a candidate. It’s your website so do as you see best, but perhaps “Trent Zimmerman*” might be in order…..

High Street, perhaps there could be fixed dates for party preselection’s in the future – in line with ‘primary elections’ held in the US. That way, major parties and incumbent MP’s won’t be able to use stalling tactics to try and prevent any challenger from gaining better recognition.

@Yoh An if we had open primaries here, we’d have a lot better candidates and less lazy MPs.
Incumbents get primaried nearly every election cycle in the US.
In Canada, leadership ballots take place at the end of a lengthy campaign, as is the case with the UK.
There is little to no value in Party membership anymore- why anyone would join a major political party when Rank and File can be quickly thrust aside for political expediency.
It’s ironic that given our supposed “progressive and fair” electoral system of compulsory voting and preferential voting we have ended up with one of the most closed shop political operations in both major parties. Even many preselections held in local branches, have already been negotiated and decided before a vote has been cast, and if you’re not in a faction you have little to no chance of winning a ballot.
Compare that to the US, UK or Canada, even NZ which all have FPTP and non-compulsory voting but also have much more diverse Parliaments. There’s a lot more non-Caucasian, more women, more people with disability in those parliaments/congresses than we have here. And a lot more in safe seats.
The preferential system both for internal party ballots and external general elections has allowed for parties and candidates to effectively game the system by using the compulsory preferences as a safety net.
A Labor candidate in even a slightly marginal seat will know that they can always rely on Greens to top up their vote after the 2nd and 3rd preferences. The Liberals did the same with Palmer at the last election.
We will keep getting more and more independents and break away/splinter parties because there is no democratic value in joining the Liberal or Labor parties in their current structural form.

Yes, open primaries where voters get to decide candidates (these can be optional, rather than compulsory for general elections) will help to weed out poor performing MP’s, as they will not be able to obtain much public support. In contrast, strong performers will generally stay on as challengers will be more hesitant to put their name forward.

Yoh An

On this occasion it is not the incumbent that is applying the tactics (well, the stalling tactic we are speaking of….)

As bad as the ALP/LNP are I don’t think there’s another party on the planet that abuses and despises its own members more than UK Labour.

North Sydney labelled in polling quoted in AFR today, as a different case to the other seats Climate200 Independent’s are running in – a genuine 3-way contest where preferences could flow in either direction between ALP and IND. And Liberal PV not high enough to be considered safe.

The more you think about it – North Sydney could in play for Labor or Independent.

It is inner city – gentrified – and the two councils are now left (and I know that council and state elections do not necessarily reflect in Commonwealth Elections). Who would have thought that Lane Cove would have 3 Labor Councillors and North Sydney 2 Labor Councillors. Then the Willoughby Council area covered in North Sydney has put a Labor Councillor up for the last 3 elections. This could be one of those seats that falls when others with smaller margins don’t (e.g. Banks, Reid, Lindsay).

Furthermore, the seat has had an independent previously and the member is a bit of a bore. A seat to watch.

40-24 Zoe Daniel vs Tim Wilson
36-32 Dave Sharma vs Allegra Spender
42-30 Tim Zimmerman vs Kylea Tink

Those are some diabolical numbers especially for Tim Wilson, but the methodology sounds pretty sketchy