LIB 9.3%
Incumbent MP
Trent Zimmerman, since 2015.
Geography
Lower North Shore of Sydney. The seat covers the north shore of Sydney Harbour from Hunters Hill to Kirribilli and extends as far north as Chatswood. Main suburbs are North Sydney, Willoughby, Lane Cove, Chatswood and Hunters Hill.
The seat covers the entirety of Hunters Hill and Lane Cove local government areas, almost all of Willoughby (except for Castle Cove and parts of Chatswood) and a majority of the City of North Sydney (except for Neutral Bay).
North Sydney is an original federation electorate, and has never been held by the ALP, being held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors with the exception of two terms when it was held by an independent.
The seat originally extended much further than the immediate lower north shore of Sydney. The original seat covered all of the north shore and extended further north to cover the Central Coast and reached Morisset on Lake Macquarie. The seat rapidly retreated back to Pittwater by the 1906 redistribution. The 1922 redistribution saw the creation of Mackellar covering Manly and the Northern Beaches, and North Sydney retreated to most of the area it covers today around North Sydney, Chatswood and Lane Cove.
The seat was first won by Dugald Thompson, originally of the Free Trade Party and then the Commonwealth Liberal Party. Thompson served as a minister in George Reid’s government from 1904 to 1905, and retired in 1910. The seat was won in 1910 by George Edwards, who, like Thompson, had moved from the Free Trade party to the Liberal party. Edwards had previously held the seat of South Sydney from 1901 to 1906.
Edwards died in 1911, and the seat was won by Granville Ryrie (LIB). Ryrie was a Boer War veteran, and was promoted to Brigadier-General at the beginning of the First World War and served in battle at Gallipoli and in Sinai and Palestine. Ryrie continued to serve as Member for North Sydney and became a minister under Billy Hughes in 1920. Ryrie moved to the new seat of Warringah in 1922 and remained in Parliament until 1927.
North Sydney was won in 1922 by then-Prime Minister Billy Hughes. Hughes had previously served as Labor member for West Sydney from 1901 to 1917, when he became the Nationalist member for Bendigo. Hughes had become Prime Minister in 1915 and had left the ALP in 1916 over the issue of conscription, and created the new Nationalist party with the support of fellow ALP defectors and his former conservative opponents.
At the same election when Hughes moved to North Sydney, his party lost its overall majority in the House of Representatives. The Country Party decided to support the Nationalists, but animosity between Hughes and Country Party leader Earle Page saw Hughes resign as Prime Minister and Stanley Bruce take over.
Hughes went to the backbenches and remained there until 1929, when he crossed the floor and brought down the Bruce government. He served as an independent for two years before joining with his former party and another group of Labor rebels, led by Joseph Lyons, to form the United Australia Party.
Hughes served as a minister once more from 1934 to 1937, after first becoming a minister in 1904. He became leader of the United Australia Party in 1941 and led the party, barely, into the 1943 election. Hughes held the seat of North Sydney until the 1949 election, when he moved to the new seat of Bradfield, and stayed in Parliament until his death in 1952.
The ensuing by-election was won by William Jack, who remained a low-profile, yet locally popular, backbencher until his retirement in 1966.
The seat was won in 1966 by Bill Graham, another Liberal who had previously held the marginal seat of St George from 1949 to 1954 and from 1955 to 1958. Graham remained in North Sydney until 1980.
Graham was succeeded by John Spender, who was defeated at the 1990 election by Ted Mack, an independent who had previously been Mayor of North Sydney and member for the state seat of North Shore. Mack had previously been a member of state Parliament from 1981 until 1988, when he resigned just before he qualified for a parliamentary pension in protest against excesses of public office. He retired at the 1996 election for similar reasons.
The seat was won in 1996 by Joe Hockey, and he held the seat for the next nineteen years. Hockey was a junior minister in the Howard government from 1998 to January 2007, when he was elevated to Cabinet as Minister for Workplace Relations.
Hockey became a senior member of the Opposition frontbench following the 2007 election and became Shadow Treasurer in February 2009. Hockey served as Treasurer from 2013 until 2015. Hockey moved to the backbench when Tony Abbott was replaced as Prime Minister, and resigned from Parliament soon after.
The 2015 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Trent Zimmerman, and he was re-elected in 2016 and 2019.
- William Bourke (Sustainable Australia)
- Robert Nalbandian (United Australia)
- Heather Armstrong (Greens)
- Victor Kline (TNL)
- Lesley Kinney (Informed Medical Options)
- Dajen Tinkler (Liberal Democrats)
- Trent Zimmerman (Liberal)
- Kylea Tink (Independent)
- Michael Walls (One Nation)
- Catherine Renshaw (Labor)
Assessment
This seat appears to be under threat from two candidates: independent Kylea Tink and Labor’s Catherine Renshaw. It seems likely that Tink will do better from Renshaw’s preferences than Renshaw would do from Tink’s preferences, but some polling suggests Renshaw could still win.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trent Zimmerman | Liberal | 50,319 | 52.0 | +0.5 |
| Brett Stone | Labor | 24,289 | 25.1 | +8.3 |
| Daniel Keogh | Greens | 13,193 | 13.6 | +0.6 |
| Arthur Chesterfield-Evans | Independent | 4,295 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| Greg Graham | Sustainable Australia | 1,831 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| David Vernon | Christian Democratic Party | 1,660 | 1.7 | -0.3 |
| Peter Vagg | United Australia Party | 1,249 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 4,077 | 4.0 | -0.7 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trent Zimmerman | Liberal | 57,398 | 59.3 | -4.3 |
| Brett Stone | Labor | 39,438 | 40.7 | +4.3 |
Polling places have been split into four areas, in line with the local government areas.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 54.4% in North Sydney to 64.6% in Hunters Hill.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.8% in Hunters Hill to 16.2% in North Sydney.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Willoughby | 13.9 | 58.5 | 21,322 | 22.0 |
| North Sydney | 16.2 | 54.4 | 18,708 | 19.3 |
| Lane Cove | 13.6 | 58.1 | 13,283 | 13.7 |
| Hunters Hill | 9.8 | 64.6 | 5,901 | 6.1 |
| Pre-poll | 12.1 | 61.3 | 23,725 | 24.5 |
| Other votes | 14.0 | 62.3 | 13,897 | 14.4 |
Election results in North Sydney at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Ben, not sure what you are basing your Assessment on. The only way Zimmerman has rebuilt the margin is via reference to the 2015 By-election, where there was a reasonable IND challenge (and no ALP candidate). At the 2 general elections since, the margin has reduced by 2.1% vs the previous general election (even with Turnbull as PM) and then 4.3%. I think what we have seen which has been lost in the fog a bit, is the effect of the loss of Hockey’s personal vote.
Further, as your graph clearly shows, the gap to the NSW average is now much smaller than it has been certainly in 30 years and perhaps ever! At 7.5% gap now, could be interesting if NSW ALP was ever to get back to 52 or 53% state wide TPP.
There is plenty of local talk about the Voices movement finding a IND candidate to support, but I sense it might be more smoke than fire. An Independent Liberal will find it hard to get into 2nd position – a McGowen type might be able to knock Zimmerman down by enough and sweep up a majority of the left vote to get there, but this seat could be quickly moving out of the “safe”” seat zone that is the best target for an IND.
I mentioned it in 2019, so I’ll hint again. I can see why you combined Lane Cove and Hunters Hill LGA’s into a single “West” area, but it’s giving an average of two quite different results. Hunters Hill would be around 67% LIB TPP and Lane Cove would be around 57%.
That’s a good point about Zimmerman’s impact on the majority, I’ll edit it.
Yes you could get more detailed information by breaking apart Lane Cove from Hunters Hill but part of the point of the areas is to simplify, and Hunters Hill is a small part of the seat.
Yes, I can see you were aiming for 3 roughly equal areas, however it makes it look like the West is a strong LIB area (the strongest of the 3) when that really only holds true for Hunters Hill. Lane Cove has only 2 strong LIB booths (Riverview and Longueville), but offset by several others that are mid 50’s or just above).
Keep up the great work – happy to be a Patron!
excerpt from 2019 :
My Seat
Zimmerman represents EVERYTHING that is wrong with the Libs. This bloke is a perfect counterweight to someone like Matt Thistlewaite. An arrow. He will never, i repeat never deviate from the party line. This is because he is incapable of having any kind of original, thought, or idea. Anyone would be better.
I have met him, & talked at length. What a total waste of time. He is part of the appalling monoculture ,of political staffers, & lawyers that dominate the Libs. The thing about monocultures is that they ferment disease.
The margin in NS flatters Zimmerman. He lost about 4 & 1/2% 2pp But the reality was much worse ( for him) The other vote was much smaller, & the booth results had some massive swings. He actually managed to to lose 3 booths that the libs probably held since federation, mind you with an independent interruption (vale Ted Mack).
North SYDNEY is a seat i’d like to see abolished . Either Waringah could move south, or Bradfield preferably. Lane cove LGA, & Hunters Hill LGA are a far better fit with Bennelong too. Berowra ought to go to. Kuringai would be far more appropriate name, & it had a long history as a former state seat name. Won’t happen though.
In terms of the polling day results, I think this seat is harder for an Independent now than in Mack’s day because of its western drift, taking in additional LGA areas, and therefore not having much of a community of interest around any particular LGA. From memory there are 4 LGAs in the seat (HH, Lane Cove, NS and Willoughby) each of them with different aspirations and demographics. So this should keep Zimmerman safe.
The Lane Cove booths (if you look at Roberts’s results also) don’t vary much. Its the same in the whole of the lower north shore, not many booths above 62/3% on 2PP, but very few below 55%.
@ moderate
I agree to a point. The eastern LGAs are more volatile. However Hockey was likeable, & Zimmerman is not, & that in itself means he is not safe. When i last met him i told him eyeball, to eyeball that no one in my family would ever vote for him.
Anyone would be better Zimmerman is a talentless, & self-serving dickhead.
Zimmerman is a factional hack, no backbone or ability at all. Just out of curiosity, how important is the Asian vote here? Not as much as Bennelong I would imagine, but could still be relevant in keeping the seat in Liberal hands.
Asian vote is pretty small. Chatswood is split with Bradfield, and the Chinese community in Chatswood tends to come from Hong Kong so is intrinsically disposed to the Libs. Small Japanese community in Northbridge, likewise Lib disposed.
I think you are both being very hard on Zimmerman but obviously you are entitled to your view. Agree with you WD about eastern end being more volitile – but don’t forget the boundary now goes beyond Ben Boyd Rd now (we could stop at The Oaks for a wine).
I’ve experimented with ideas for the next federal NSW redistribution based on data from the NSW state redistribution. Without a drastic increase in population growth on the Northern Beaches between now and the next redistribution, it is likely that North Sydney will need to move into Roseville and Lindfield while losing much of North Sydney LGA.
That’s interesting Weston. I expect some expansion northwards, but to Lindfield? The state seat of Willoughby barely moved North and North Shore didn’t move at all?
If North Sydney went to taking in all of Willoughby LGA (reversing and then plus some, the last changes), and reuniting Chatswood in the process, that would be a good outcome.
Could Mackellar be redrawn to take in south of the upper north shore suburbs, leaving Warringah and North Sydney much less effected?
Zimmerman although not being a standout member will hold comfortably with either a tiny swing against or a tiny one to him as the boy result against him occurred last election and it’s very hard to cop a swing against you to that caliber 3 elections in a row.The large boomer population there would be more supportive of voting in the incumbent government back in for providing the support to get it through the pandemic .In general too I can’t the affluent blue ribbon liberal seats really coping too much of underperforming results especially in NSW.
We will see Pez, by that logic no seat would ever change its position on the election pendulum.
I walk around this seat, and don’t say “OMG, look at all the Boomers…” The one area you might say this is Crows Next, and the ALP won that booth last time round. Greenwich is a bit similar
@High Street
Warringah is currently almost 9% below quota – much more than the Northern Beaches state districts. Also, the shortfall that did exist at the state level has been addressed by having Davidson (proposed to be renamed St Ives) shed parts of the Forest District then expanding north to compensate.
The most straightforward approach is to have Warringah expand further into North Sydney LGA. An alternative, as you’ve pointed out, is to have Warringah and/or Mackellar expand into the Ku-ring-gai area. I think this could work, but it might not be easy to find good boundaries. It would have to be a good chunk of the Ku-ring-gai area.
Under either configurations, Bradfield could (and probably would need to) extend all the way to Hawkesbury River. I’d contend that this in itself is not a bad thing, but it could have some potentially awkward knock-on effects once we get out to North West Sydney. Which then raises the question of whether it would be too objectionable to have North Sydney extend into Ryde LGA, disrupting the long-established (and highly ideal) boundaries of Bennelong.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/northsydney2022/comment-page-1#comment-753630
The current government will be 8-9 years old when this election is held and support for the government generally declines with age.
This government has been loosing ground in comparatively inner-suburban electorates, including it the wealthier seats that have been traditionally safe for it.
The current outbreak and lockdown in Sydney will have a negative impact on the Coalition vote, with Jobkeeper and the COVID supplement to welfare payments gone and the NSW`s Government`s lockdown avoidance policy (strongly backed by the Commonwealth Coalition Government) having taken a severe hit to its credibility.
The sort of voter who has made a sea/tree change from North Sydney with remote working may be more likely to vote for the Coalition than those who have stayed put.
The Coalition is extremely unlikely to loose North Sydney at this election, however, it is likely to have a swing against it.
jack was known as silent Billy Jack…… nth Sydney was a labor seat at the state level from 1941 to the early 1960s
I happen to visit and live close to Crows nest Michael and I’m not surprised Labor won the booth cause it’s full of young people like myself as it’s the major food hub of the lower north shore and has entertainment aspects along with chatswood so a lot of the younger people who grew up in the north shore that don’t move with housemates to the inner west with move to crows nest
@Michael, I see your point about Lane Cove/Hunters Hill. I’ll put it on the list to revisit when I come back to the federal guide.
Which Crows Nest are you talking about? The one in regional QLD? That is the only one I am aware of.
Zimmerman won’t lose because he is a moderate decent small-l liberal. I could see this seat becoming a marginal seat someday and Labor may occasionally win during landslide years (They did come within 5% in 2007) the northern Sydney suburbs are not conservative compared to say regional QLD or regional NSW. The LNP can lose these area’s if they move too far to the right.
You would never see a Trump like conservative winning in these areas, It just doesn’t happen. people are smarter than that.
Ok Pez, so we disagree on the age of the people who live in and near Crows Nest – no bigge. But your point is that it is full of young people, as is the western side of Artarmon (where I used to live before kids) and a lot of Lane Cove North, and I am told so is Waverton and Wollstonecraft (ironically the two places where Zimmerman lives and John Howard). Throw in Neutral Bay, although split with Warringah. Your original comment was that the electorate had a large boomer population and this would protect the Government against a swing – maybe it does, but it doesn’t feel it like it, and those that are here may be “well to do” Lefties – the true Chardonnay set, that ScoMo likes to denigrate.
@Nicholas Weston,
Ok, I will defer to your research. I was assuming that since the last Federal and State redistributions were done around the same time, they were working off the same population forecasts. The problem is North Sydney is a federation division and not having a majority of North Sydney Council in North Sydney would be scandalous!
How about a different approach? What about moving the west of Mackellar (i.e. those areas that are not actually beach suburbs even if they do support the Sea Eagles) into Bradfield and combine the rest of Mackellar and Warringah into a true northern beaches electorate called Warringah – effectively abolish Mackellar. North Sydney would then take in at least the current part of North Sydney Council that it doesn’t already have, and some of Mosman too. It could lose Hunters Hill to Bennelong and move north as far as needed.
Moderate
Invitation for a wine at The Oaks ACCEPTED. My shout. My phone no is 0425 365419. Any day except Wednesday.
Hmm Hard on Zimmermann !? My son WD junior reckoned (That) i used to laugh at him too much. My reply was that that was IMPOSSIBLE !. An oxymoron, a contradiction in terms. He was a teenager therefore i could not possibly laugh at him– ENOUGH !.
On the same basis Zimmerman is so appalling no one can possibly pour enough shit on the hapless jerk. Not even his pre selection was legitimate. Nothing has improved since. He has inspired me however to commence the assignation of an award” for exceptional Non–achievement & Non– performance in Political representation. It will be christened “The Political NON Achiever award” ! Although i am open to any creative suggestions of a more amusing moniker!
.Zimmermann is the award favourite & front runner
One award will be assigned per major party per election.
Then an Australian or national champion will be chosen.
Nominations are open.
One of the 4 seats in NSW that I believe will buck the trend and swing to the ALP on the TPP basis.
This seat is trending to the left but will only fall in landslide years for Labor but it definitely could see a 2007 result in this seat (I believe it was 55-45% back then) Labor ran a star candidate back then against Joe Hockey but the seat was more blue ribbon back then than it is now.
One to watch if/when Zimmerman retires, He is a moderate sensible small liberal MP who supports same-sex marriage and supported Malcolm Turnbull right through to the end. But he has to be in a seat like this considering it is hard to see a Tony Abbott winning in a seat like this today. I disagree that Bradfield is trending Labor however considering that is rock solid stone Liberal.
Daniel
Which other seats do you think will buck the trend?
I’m trying to get my head around Labor choosing to support the stage 3 tax cuts as well as abandoning popular but costly policies, as it’s baffling as an electoral strategy. The Liberals will still find ways to attack Labor on tax no matter what their actual policies are.
The twinkle in Labor’s eye must be affluent urban Liberal held seats like North Sydney. Their pitch to affluent voters – their money is safe under a Labor government, so they don’t need to put up with the social conservatism, climate change denial, and pandemic mismanagement of the Liberals.
Two problems however – the swing required is too large, and Zimmerman has successfully built a moderate image, with the media giving him (as well as Falinski and Sharma) plenty of profile as a moderate despite his voting record. That will be enough to convince small-l Liberals that there’s no reason to feel bad about voting 1 Liberal, even if the party at large moves further to the right.
Trent has contested this seat 3 times and each time a swing against him…..
John – I’m sorry but “the party at large” is not moving further to the right. This has been a popularly propounded view/narrative by media since I started an interest in politics over 30 years ago.
The stats just don’t support it – there are more moderate MPS in federal parliament than ever before (eg a majority of Libs in both NSW and SA) and the 3 Liberal Premiers in Australia, all successfully elected or about to be re-elected, are moderates.
So this oft cited but with respect intellectually lazy view does not stand proper scrutiny.
Long shot for Labor but could be picked up in a high tide election for labor.
Mick
THe 4th time will be the same. Trust me !!.
John
Mate you really need to get with it. The wealthy entitled elite vote labor WITHOUT consideration to money, otherwise they wouldn’t do it. Policies to “bribe” these folk, are not just irrelevant, they are absurd.
“””so they don’t need to put up with the social conservatism, climate change denial, and pandemic mismanagement of the Liberals.””” as you put it yourself !!!. Except that little of this is actually true, due to LIBERAL embrace of Labor positions. CONFUSING isn’t it !?
“”Zimmerman has successfully built a moderate image, with the media giving him (as well as Falinski and Sharma) plenty of profile as a moderate despite his voting record.””” WHAT IMAGE !? WHAT “RECORD”!? The man is NOTHING, has done nothing, will amount to nothing!!!!!!!. GOT IT !!?
ALL that small Liberal stuff is nonsense. Your “small liberal” voters aren’t liberal voters in the first place, if anything they could be (very occasional) swinging voters. I vote AGAINST Zimmerman because he IS a totally useless dickhead.
I would even be prepared to put up with 3 years of PM Albo JUST TO GET RID OF Zimmerman.!! How is that for commitment !?? Besides i think most Labor supporters would suffer (humiliation, embarrassment, shame etc !) far more than i would, & that would be funny !!..
Lastly please don’t annoy me again, by trying to find nice things to say about liberal non-entities
cheers WD
moderate
Funny !!. Is it “great minds think alike”!?. Or perhaps just a mutual bored frustration with a hackneyed & trite typification ?
Bob
Not even Zimmerman is capable of losing NS in this cycle. If you even dream otherwise your doctor needs to change your meds mate !
WD look at the WA State Election – for Labor to hold Nedlands (which includes the suburb of Dalkeith), Churchlands, and South Perth – I think anything is possible, but to win North Sydney would be a miracle and I cannot see Labor winning in a landslide. If Labor wins it will be by a small majority. Something tells me this election will be status quo.
James
I don’t agree . Zimmerman will “succeed”!! in mission to “make” NS a marginal seat. expect a small swing at least, but possibly as much as 3-4%. The man is truly without any substance.
BTW Labor will never, i repeat never win this seat, but an independent may well.
Labor will never win north Sydney, their primary vote here is woeful even with the boost it got from 2019. There is a lot of old money in this seat and surrounding that won’t change their vote from liberal and agree above it’s only swing voters who will probably vote lnp 80% of the time that consider swinging their vote to Labor.
Labor was reasonably competitive here in the 50s. Of course, not only has the area gentrified massively since then, but the seat was purely confined to a narrow strip extending northwards from North Sydney up to Willoughby.
On these boundaries? Forget it.
OK – so, where do I start?
Firstly, and most importantly, I only know that Winediamond and I actually live in the seat or very close (200m) to it, so I think you all need to defer to us on local specific aspects of the electorate. WoS, I recall you are in Warringah, so you get some latitude. Pez, you said you “visit and live close to Crows Nest”, so I will count you with WoS until advised otherwise. For all the rest – show you true colours.
I will start with Winediamond cause I like him the most. I do agree with 95% of your comments here, but from a 13.7% margin, to lose 4.3%, and then you admit as much as 3-4% is possible this time – the margin going into 2025 could start with a ‘4’. If the Government did get returned, I wouldn’t want to be sitting on <5% margin in 3 years time. So not sure that supports such confidence as "Labor will never, i repeat never win this seat".
Pez – yes, of course PV is important. But seats haven't been one on the PV since 1918 – so time to catch up on things. If one party can get 30% PV and then rely on 83% of another 15% PV, before even getting to the minor parties and IND's then its at least a contest. ALP is not at 30% yet, but you want to say they can't reach it in 2022?
John – I agree with Winediamond. The one thing the 2019 election told us is that electorates like North Sydney don't dislike redistributive polices as much as people would expect. As I was told on here I think after the election, wealthy (and well educated) people can afford to vote for higher taxes – most have all the money they think they need already. Now sure, the 4.3% swing in North Sydney last time may have been in spite of, rather than because of, these polices. But then answer me – what caused the nett 4.3% swing and is that factor still around. Winediamond thinks that if it was climate change denial, then that effect will soon, eventually, exhaust itself. Maybe that's right – but we can't be certain.
Finally (for now) back to you WoS. The 50's??! Democrats used to win in Texas in the 50's, the Republican's won them for the majority of time since, now Democrats have started winning seats back. Times, and electorates change – even if the Oaks at Neutral Bay doesn't. And what part of the electorate outside the narrow strip extending northwards from North Sydney up to Willoughby make the seat non winnable for labor/ non losable for LIB? Hunters Hill? A good point, but its not that big. Northbridge is bigger. Have you looked at the Lane Cove booths results? All below the electorate 2PP LIB average.
Labor can forget about their long-term prospects here. The redistribution after the next election will push North Sydney deep into the Ku-ring-gai area. (See my earlier comments.)
We don’t actually disagree High Street, I just thought it was fascinating history. I confess I’m no expert, but from what I understand the nature of the demographics centered immediately around North Sydney in the 50s reflected a far more working class profile than it does today. This is what made the seat marginal, as Mick so helpfully pointed out. North Sydney may return to being more marginal than it has recently, but clearly for very different reasons.
P.S. I actually live in Cook, BUT have family who’ve lived in the area for the last 50 years.
Cheers.
That’s neat symmetry WoS. I grew up in what was then Cook, but has been Hughes many times over the years. Folks have lived there for 56 years!
yes, I know we don’t disagree – just stirring. My point was that just because seats have changed since 70 years ago, doesn’t mean they can’t change sides again. On a lot of seats on this blog, “gentrified massively” can be code for votes ALP and Green. That certainly is happening in parts of the electorate. Then there are young singles in apartments around North Sydney, and young families living in medium density in Lane Cove, which are a different demographic, but in the end the votes only end up in one of two piles (w/o a very strong IND)
Though most of the seats with high gentrification that vote for the Left were traditionally ALP seats in the inner city (think Sydney, Melbourne, Grayndler, parts of Batman + Wills, etc.) And in cases like Macnamara and Griffith the areas have clearly trended right (though the patterns of 2019 are a bit of a curve ball in this regard).
High St
Thanks for your kind acknowledgements.
The “BTW Labor will never, i repeat never win this seat, but an independent may well.” comment was made with reference to my agreement with NICOLAS WESTON on the impending absurdity of the AEC basically seizing all of NS LGA , into Waringah . The result is that the seat of N Sydney won’t have N Sydney at all. Ridiculous. Currently that would men that NS moves north to Lindfield as Nicolas Weston has indeed predicted.
Once that happens it’s game over wouldn’t you agree ?
Another diabolical outcome is that you will have a New MP moving from the feeble (Fletcher) to the truly retarded (TZ) !! Perhaps the AEC may still rescue you with some bizarre formulation ?
Correction. i was referring to climate change ALARMISM, & CATASTROPHISATION , NOT CC DENIAL. To be honest iv’e no idea when the slavish submission to authoritarianism, ideology, & blind faith ( & man is it ever blind) in , & to science will end. However i do sense that Covid mismanagement, & overreactions have brought that day much closer. Always enjoy your contributions High St. Lets have a walk soon Harold Reid Reserve works for me ? You have my number.
cheers WD
Seeing as everyone is so engaged on this thread, & we have all talked around the future redistribution, i thought i’d kick off a more specific conversation. Ben might be a little gratified as this will be directly on topic, as opposed to the free wheeling & gratifyingly detailed discussion thus far
Leaving aside names of seats the cleanest outcome is IMV relatively radical.
1/ NS to compose of NS LGA, Mosman LGA, & about 30-40 thousand warringah voters in the south ie Manly, Balgowlah
2/ Waringah to move north & take all of Mckellar, & relinquish about 20 000 voters west of Frenchs Forest, Belrose, ie Wakehurst Parkway TO Bradfield.McKELLAR Abolished.
3/ NS to lose Hunters Hill LGA, & Lane Cove LGA to Benelong
4/ Benelong to lose everything in Parramatta LGA TO Parramatta
5 Bradfield surplus to go to Berorowra –ie Hornsby LGA
None of this will happen though. The AEC WILL Stuff this all up beyond Belief.
WRT names i’d like to see NS abolished too, & Bradfield be in immediate proximity to his greatest bridge !. Although i’m also partial to the name Streeton to celebrate the Sirius Cove artists & our IMHO greatest painter/ identity.
Then present Bradfield could become the “new” seat of Kuringai.
Not sure whether Berowra is a name worth hanging onto…?
Over to you Gents
cheers WD
@winediamond
I just tried out your suggestion using the enrolment projections from the NSW redistribution, and I must say, I am very impressed. It works out quite nicely. And it might actually lead to better results further out west. I might share some maps when I have more time.
The Warringah change you propose WD is the most problematic. It replicates many fevered discussions that occurred inside the major political parties around council amalgamations – that ended with the mess of Northern Beaches Council.
I think the Oaks should be the end point westward for Warringah. I think Neutral Bay just about fits in a community of interest discussion with DY, but Nth Sydney and Kirribilli do not. The problem is that there will always be a “left over” seat – and in this case its the curiously named North Sydney. If it were even renamed Greenwich or Lane Cove, it would more accurately replicate the dynamics, demographics and geography of the seat. But while it is named NS, the CBD of North Sydney has to stay in the seat, imho.
@moderate
I never really considered the Warringah configured winediamond suggested because my impression is that there is some degree of, let’s just say, animosity between the Northern Beaches and the North Shore. However, I am not all that familiar with the area.
If Mackellar remains confined to the Northern Beaches, there will be no choice but for North Sydney to extend well beyond Neutral Bay.
Names are just names, and should have no bearing on boundaries whatsoever. If the relationship between the name of a district and its boundaries is problematic, then it is the name that should change, not the boundaries.
On redistribution speculation, it’s worth recalling that Warringah has jumped the Roseville Bridge before. In 2007, it took in everything from East Killara to Middle Cove. That solution might be preferred to Warringah intruding further into North Sydney LGA, or Mackellar crossing the national park.
I don’t think it matters much politically though. This is a safe Liberal seat whichever way you cut it.
Nicholas Weston
The old man (WD snr ) used thunder at me “”DON’T COMPLICATE THINGS’. The old bastard used to drive me nuts with his simple pithy wisdom. !. He was usually right too !. I think things are often complicated by old/ past decisions , which were often contrivances, & expediencies in the first place. Lines on maps are often perceived as inviolate.
Hunters Hill never had any place in NS, & really neither did Lane COVE LGA .
AS a result & More importantly Parramatta LGA might be rationalised into 2 seats say one north of the river & one south.
One aspect i’m not wild about is Waringah LGA being split into 3 seats, however over time that could rectify itself into 2 seats.
However Willoughby LGA would be entirely within Bradfield, instead of being used & split 3 ways.
Going forward this suggestion would provide a lot of flexibility for small adjustments.
Did you have a view on names ?
Very flattered that you took such an interest. So thank you Nicholas
cheers WD
@David
Mackellar needs to expand too, and I would think the most natural solution is for Mackellar to gain the rest of the Forest District. In this case, Warringah will no longer touch the Roseville Bridge. (Back when the Roseville Bridge was straddled, all of Forestville was within Warringah.)
We could have Mackellar expand down the beaches instead, gaining North Curl Curl from Warringah. It’s still tough. Even if we restore East Killara, East Lindfield, Roseville Chase, Castle Cove, and Middle Cove to Warringah (i.e. the old boundaries), it must still gain the rest of Cremorne and extend to the M1 to meet numerical requirements. Perhaps Warringah could extend deeper still into Ku-ring-gai and Willoughby. But at that point I worry that we’re creating a bits-and-pieces district.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/northsydney2022/comment-page-1#comment-754297
Neither North Sydney specifically or Australia in general has experienced a party realignment of on a scale comparable to the drastic party realignment of the South of the USA 1960-2000s, when much of the Southern White population, particularly including the wealthy class (mostly descended from the enslaving class) still running much of the South, switched from the Democrats to the Republicans over Civil Rights. While Australia has been much more about switches in the middle (with the exception of the portion of the One Nation vote that came from the ALP, which was a degree or two of magnitude smaller smaller than the switch in the South of the USA and had a comparatively small proportion of the elite compared with the South of the USA).
The return of the Democrats in the urban and suburban South has been about the leftward drift of a significant part of the educated class (probably mainly due to the effects of mass tertiary education) and urbanisation/suburbanisation (the need for many government social and economic measures is greater/more obvious in urban and suburban areas), more similar to party shifts in Australia (such as some leftward movement (from a high Liberal margin position) in seats like North Sydney).
Moderate
Mate You don’t know how close you came to a spray/rant/ trip concerning -“”” PENINSULARITY””!!. Everyone north of the Spit Bridge thinks they are special, those south of it don’t talk about being better than cause to them it’s just self evident!. North of the Bilgola bends don’t even consider themselves part of Sydney !!
Fundamentally i agree completely with Nicholas. Sorry !
cheers WD
To those who contend there is a leftward shift in North Sydney – do you also believe this will play out Bradfield, Berowra, and Mitchell over time?
Boy, where to start. I like Winediamond’s idea – mainly because I SUGGESTED IT ON THIS THREAD BACK ON JULY 11!!
Winediamond might have his seats orientated slightly further anti-clockwise than mine, but its still the North Shore 3 instead of the North Shore 4, with Lane Cove and HH reunited with Bennelong’.