Moore – Australia 2022

I don’t think this will flip however it’s worth noting that the corresponding state seats experienced some of the largest swings to Labor in the state at the last state election. The state seat of Joondalup saw a swing of 24.7% to Labor, Hillarys 19.3% and Kingsley 15.7%. While federal Labor is not likely to hold the same appeal as state Labor, the seat has a weak sitting member and the result should be pretty close in Moore.

Could the Liberals be in trouble here? From what I can gather, Goodenough is a pretty unpopular MP, and if Tangney is in play due to an unpopular MP I’d imagine this isn’t far behind, with the margin only 2 points higher. I still predict the Liberals hold but this could get close. As Malcolm said, we also saw some of the largest swings here in the state election.

I did a bit of a drive through the southern reaches of Moore and the northern end of Curtin the other day. There wasn’t an election sign to be seen in places like Carine/Duncraig/North Beach/Sorrento, whereas there were signs everywhere in Karrinyup/Doubleview/Scarborough/Trigg.

Based on this, I’d think the Liberals are a lot more worried about Curtin than they are about Moore. Which is disappointing given not-anywhere-near-Goodenough is sitting on this seat.

after acquiring liberal voters from stirling look for an increased margin

Ben

The voters Moore acquired actually reduced the margin by 0.1pp. Lol.

My name is Peter Gunness and I am feeling privileged to be your Candidate for the 2022 Federal election seat of Moore.!!
I have become quite interested in the Western Australia party as a political alternative party to the 2 major parties. I am particularly impressed with this party’s main driving force developing Policy for the benefit of WA and their independent ability to hold account policies being implemented by the federal major parties with sensible decisions for the benefit of all Australian citizens.
I feel it will make a difference having our central Independent ideological party representing WA’S INTERESTS with sensible and well planed policies and also being a party in the Federal legislative assembly helping to govern Australia by keeping the big parties travelling in the right direction.
The WA party is a young enthusiastic party with great potential to keep the stale major parties in check and influence decision making, particularly in relation to WA.
It’s time WA. Make your vote count!
Authorised by P Gunness, Ventnor Ave West Perth

Peter Gunness

Your candidates don’t seem particularly young.
Furthermore, why should voters vote for a party which barely escaped deregistration?

@Ryan Spencer

How is “barely escaping deregistration” a consideration for voters?

Bit of a longshot, but I’ve noticed a former MP for this seat, Paul Filing (1990-98, first a Lib then an Ind), is running as One Nation for the Senate. What was he like as an MP, and did he have views that would fit in One Nation back then?

Goodenough is a complete waste of space. Vote him out!

Western Aus Party preference Labor.
Labor preference Greens and then Liberal. Liberal at least put Labor and Greens last with Experian to GAP.

Left wing, right wing and the Geen tail wing … ALL attached to the same BIRD

Put the majors LAST 🗳

The definition of insanity is:

“doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result”

This election look at the individual people on the ballot – do your home work, know their values and what they will fight for.

Make your vote count and go all the way – https://youtu.be/ITWXUiK5nHQ

@ Lilli Well you’ve convinced me. I can’t wait to vote for the LDP senate candidate for Tasmania in the WA electorate of Moore.

I voted for Goodenough last election, not this time , he is nowhere Goodenough.

@lilli. Just for the record the WA Party do not preference anyone. It is up to the voter to choose where there preference go. All they ask is to vote them number 1.

I was driving a sleeping child through the Curtin/Moore border areas again yesterday, and there’s no sign whatsoever of any campaign other than a few desultory nowhere-near-Goodenough corfutes and a few Freedumb-Freedumb-Freedumb posters. And one or two fringe candidates like the WA Party. Not one ALP sign at all – maybe there’s some in the more northerly sections of the electorate, but a vote in any area’s as good as anywhere else.

Returning into northern Curtin, the corflutes were everywhere. Though I do feel that there’s been a few Chaney ones pulled down (that’s entirely anecdotal though)

There is nothing happening in Moore. Not-even-close-to-Goodenough will be drawing a MHR salary for a few more years without actually having to do a single thing.

Looks like the ALP should have put in at least some effort. This one coming down to under 1% is stunning

Labor must be regretting not putting a lot of effort here. It looks like Ian Goodenough can very narrowly win on postals. Labor would be happy to gain this seat so the Libs have no seat left in Perth.

Dutton was here today with the sitting member. They are obviously worried somewhat instead of visiting other seats.

Labor won’t gain this but the margin is unlikely to surpass 6% at the next election. I expect the Libs to win back Tangney but Labor will hold onto the rest of the seats and gain the new seat (although WA doesn’t need a new seat after losing one last time) I would personally favour the state seceding from Australia. What is Western Australia without Mark McGowan?

@Daniel T what about Swan?

Labor should be worried about WA because they will lose at least one seat in WA (like you said probably Tangney) due to the McGowan vote having gone. But even if he stayed as Premier they would have still lost a seat. Tangney is apparently a multicultural seat, but I don’t get why people come to the conclusion that multicultural seat = Labor/Greens seat. At the state level the NSW Liberals have seats with have still got seats with lots of Asian people like Ryde.

@ Nether portal,
Tangney is middle class to affluent ethnic seat especially around Bull Creek etc, where there is a large Chinese community. These voters are also well educated. I also live in an ethnically diverse Liberal seat of Menzies which until recently was fairly solid Liberal but no there is serious talk it could be lost in 2025. I am not saying ethnic diverse always equal Labor/Greens we only started to see that recently for example, the Libs were starting to improve their performance in seats like Chisholm, Bennelong, Reid, Banks etc. I agree NSW Liberals did manage to hold on to Ryde but they tend to more centrist unlike Federal Libs who in the eye of many people of colour such as myself seems to be interested in embracing a kind of Trump style white nationalism. For example Dutton made some comments such around Sudanese gangs, White Farmers in South Africa, that Fraser made a mistake in taking Lebanese refugees in the 1970s etc. The collapse in the Liberal standing in Aston especially around Wantirna South was phenomenal it was actually worse than the drop in the Liberal primary in the teal seats. This is an area that is quite ethnically diverse but affluent and delivered the Libs the most humiliating night in their almost 80 year history, i would say Dutton’s chickens came to roost in Aston and the voters pulled his pants down. Dutton would be more disliked than Morrison especially among the Chinese community. Regarding Swan, the seat comes into parts an affluent waterfront West which is Tealish (South Perth LGA) and a working class ethnically diverse East it is more Labor leaning than WA as a whole the Libs actually have a better chance in Pearce than Swan.

@Nether portal i definitely agree that it is a silly assumption that because an electorate is multicultural it automatically means they will elect a left-of-centre mp. cald voters do tend to lean more strongly towards labor/the left for a few reasons (i.e., high levels of tertiary education among skilled migrants, humanitarian refugees with significantly lower incomes than the population average, niche issues such as palestine/china relations etc.) however moderate liberal governments can still be attractive to these voters, as seen in the recent nsw election. i also agree with @nimalan’s assessment that duttons flirting with white nationalist viewpoints could cost them votes among cald communities. malcolm turnbull and even scott morrison would have probably a better fit for these communities, with dutton appealing more towards suburban and regional anglo electorates (lindsay, outer north brisbane, the hunter valley etc). i think the next election will see swings away from labor in these aforementioned locations however i expect labor to potentially gain seats such as menzies, deakin, sturt, bonner, possibly banks etc (although obviously two years is a long time in politics).

There’s hundreds of possible reasons why Dutton/Goodenough were together. I believe they’re good mates. They may not be on the defensive as yet. I agree that Tangney would probably be the first to go (out of the 2022 Liberal losses) if there’s an upswing in the LNP vote nationwide. More likely to happen than a teal/Green losing their seat. We’ll get a better picture in late 2024 or early 2025 which side is on the defensive.

I read that federal Labor put Moore on a target list even after McGowan resigned. It’s probably because of its ultra-slim margin and the shambolic nature of the WA Libs. Also, the days of unpopular, hard-right MPs (e.g. Goodenough) representing middle-upper income seats may almost be over.

I think I should also mention that (speaking of multiculturalism and politics) Goodenough is actually Chinese.

What’s interesting in WA at the moment is it is a perfect example (other than Queensland) of a state with seats that vote one way federally and another way on the state level (this is increasing with teals and is I guess decreasing with Labor, e.g Queensland on the state level is swinging to the LNP). Cottesloe is the only Liberal-held seat in Perth (the only other Liberal seat in all of WA is Vasse, which is in the Peel Region which includes Busselton; it is in the federal seat of Forrest, a Liberal seat), but the suburb of Cottesloe itself is in Curtin, which is held by a teal independent and in fact the only teal independent in WA. Yet Moore (the Liberal-held federal seat, not the state Nationals-held seat) is entirely in Labor electorates. Durack is Liberal-held but includes mostly Labor state electorates like Geraldton, Kimberley and Pilbara, plus O’Connor is Liberal-held but includes the state electorate of Kalgoorlie which is Labor-held. Although it is worth noting that the last WA state election was a huge landslide for Labor so this will probably change at least a bit in 2025 (at the state election; federally I expect WA to swing against Labor and to Liberals who normally perform wel in WA, plus there could possibly be another swing against Labor and to the Liberals in Tasmania like in 2019 and 2022 and in the NT my guess is that the CLP could pick up Lingiari).

Fairfax/Resolve’s June qtr federal polling shows that in WA, primary votes are: Labor 46% Coalition 29% Greens 12%. This represents a 9% primary swing to Labor (from the election result) even with McGowan’s resignation. It did say to treat the numbers with caution because the sample size is smaller and margin of error could be higher.

Things may change between now and the next federal election. At this rate, Moore (and maybe Canning) will flip, not Tangney, unless WA Labor or Sam Lim trips up. If Federal Labor and WA Labor are optimistic, then Federal Labor might schedule the election for late March/early April 2025 given that Easter will be quite late and school holidays should be avoided. If not then, then May 2025.

“ Goodenough is actually Chinese” is a lie, and is incredibly misleading. He is actually from Singapore.

Thought I’d correct the record sorry.

That 9% swing would also put Durrack and Forrest in the Labor column and put O’Connor in question. The coalition would therefore have 0 seats in WA and on the TPP basis may even lose Curtin as notionally it’s around 7-8% against Labor.

With respect to Ian Goodnough not only is he from Singapore he identifies as a part of the Eurasian community and not ethnically Chinese. He does have some Chinese ancestry but the Eurasian community is quite different culturally in Singapore they are largely Christian and have a more western culture a bit like how Anglo-Indians are westernized than other South Asians, they celebrate Christmas etc. His surname is actually English.

@Daniel T @Nimalan true. He is a Singaporean with mixed Chinese and European heritage, hence why he has an English surname, speaks with an English accent but looks Chinese. Singapore is a majority Chinese country, however, so technically I’m partially correct.

@Nimalan also I thought I might correct a few typos:

His surname is Goodenough not Goodnough.

Also it’s spelt realise not realize. We are not in North America.

@ Nether Portal
I disagree with you in part with respect to your comments about Singapore. While Singapore is majority ethnically Chinese it emphasis that is a Multiracial country which is why English is used as the main language and why Tamil and Malay are also official languages. If the MP for Moore was an Indian Singaporean who was a Hindu would you describe them as Chinese if they have no Chinese heritage whatsover and did not speak a word of it? Zaneta Mascarenhas is of Goan Heritage but he parents lived in Kenya but i dont think you could describe her as Black in anyway. However, i think your partially correct for a different reason that Ian does have some Chinese ancestry.

I’d be putting money on a Feb 2025 or early December 2024 election. All the other months would conflict with holidays elections or afl finals.

According to my calculation using the 2022 federal election preference flows in WA, the Resolve PM’s June quarter federal polling shows a WA statewide Labor 2PP of 63.3%, which equates to a 8.3% 2PP swing to Labor compared to the 2022 federal election. A Labor 2PP of 63.3% is not realistic for mainland states. What’s more, Resolve PM has recently displayed a pattern of inflating Labor’s performance to unrealistically high levels in its federal polls. Even in the June 2023 quarterly aggregate poll with a larger sample size, derived Labor 2PP figures of 59.0% in NSW and 62.9% in VIC are unrealistically high, and derived Labor 2PP figures of 63.3% in WA and 67.5% in SA are simply ludicrous. 46% ALP primary vote in WA and SA is absurd. So are Coalition primary votes of 29% in WA and 22% in SA. In a non-aggregare Resolve poll published in May, whose sample size was much smaller, it showed grossly inflated derived 2PP figures of 61.0% in NSW and 66.6% in VIC. Better not use these ludicrous and grossly inflated Labor primary vote and derived Labor 2PP figures to make predictions on statewide swings, seat gains or losses. That said, according to psephologist and polling analyst Dr Kevin Bonham, Resolve PM will apply a different methodology during state and federal election campaign periods to somehow make the polling results more realistic and get rid of the ridiculous figures we have seen outside of election campaign periods.

I’ve lived in either Moore or Cowan for the last 30 years, and know this seat very well.

A lot in the local Liberal branches do like Goodenough, but a lot also DON’T like him. Don’t be surprised if he faces a pre-selection challenge prior to the next federal election.

The high poll numbers for Labor is probably a reflection of their extended electoral honeymoon period. I still think their numbers are inflated. Labor getting over 60% 2PP in WA at a federal election is too high to be true.

There’s good news for Kate Chaney in Curtin if there’s a swing to Labor and a collapse in the Liberal vote.
Her margin is the lowest out of all the crossbenchers. Not sure about the federal election but at the NSW/Vic state elections, Labor and Greens put the teals 2nd on their HTV cards where there was a teal running.

As Moore is an ultra marginal seat, I doubt many people would challenge Goodenough for preselection, unless there’s a sense of a huge upswing in the WA/national Liberal vote. Preselection challenges are more common in safe seats. If there’s an imminent preselection challenge and/or seat loss, he might announce his retirement instead of facing the music.

I read in the AFR (I think it was) which I’m aware it leans liberal in its bias but Labor ttp seems to still be holding WA and backsliding in NSW, I’m wondering that due the member not being most charismatic individual if Labor could potentially pick this up here or if he potentially retires?

@spacefish i doubt labor will take moore. labor will most likely lose most if not all there 2022 gains and they will be spending what resources they have sandbagging those seats without mcgowan labor have no chance here.

I think Moore is more in play, however, Tangney will be a loss, but Labor will hold the other WA seats gained in 2022 plus the new seat.

I actually feel Labor is more likely to retain Tangney than win Moore. Tangney has a large Chinese community and also has suburbs that have a teal-demographic.

I think Labor will win the new seat however i think they might lose Cowan due to losing the traditional labor voting areas in the east. without mark mcgowan and covid i think the seats will go back to the 2019 results. swan however might stay labor

Yes, I too think Moore is in play. Tangney I believe would be won back by the Liberals, Pearce would be competitive, Cowan should be a Labor retain and Swan is properly safe for Labor due to the changing demographics around Victoria Park, Belmont and now Cannington. Lots of Apartments going up around Carosuel in Cannington and younger voters moving in. Greens will properly do well in Swan in 2025, i think they will get above 20% in Swan.

@patreon libs will take back pear e hasluck and tangey. I agree on swan the not just for that reason but the redistribution will see it she’d territory in the east. Cowan will lose its strongest labor territory to the new seat Moore will be retained by libs. Cowan will be in play for libs

I think WA Labor would spend all of its resources sandbagging its gains, especially Tangney while giving the Libs a free pass in Moore. If they can’t win it in 2022, they’re definitely not winning it in 2025. Sam Lim is a considerably stronger MP than Ben Morton and the demographics in Tangney aren’t exactly the ones Dutton appeal to (large Chinese community + many affluent voters would vote teal if they could).

@dan m they will most likely fail in most of the seats without the anti Chinese rhetoric of the previous government the Chinese should return to the libs. They will probably save swan though but it’s being reported Labor is expecting losses in wa and these seats were won on the popularity of McGowan and isolationist wa policies of covid. There’s also the fact Morrison did also alienate wa voters during covid as well but I think they will have forgotten that

John, no they won’t automatically return to the Liberals. The friendlier Chinese relations under this government actually is a huge relief for many Chinese Australians and actually makes it more likely for them to stick with Labor.

Voters aren’t dumb, people know the war-mongering statements Dutton made towards China, the aggressive stance on China might help win over some older anti-communist voters, but it isn’t winning Chinese immigrants, period.

And Pearce isn’t flipping on a 9% margin, although we will have to wait for the redistribution. Why do you think WA will return to 2019? You do realise the coalition on 54-46% TPP in WA in 2019? Not happening this time.

Even with McGowan gone, that doesn’t matter, it will be closer to 50-50 TPP if there’s a swing back. If you want to know the reasons why the coalition had done really well in WA in federal elections before 2022, here is why…

2007: Unpopular state Labor government and ousting of Kim Beazley
2010: General swing against the government + Mining tax
2013: No seats lost, but swing against mainly because of what happened nationally
2016: Shorten didn’t appeal here, and you still had Julie Bishop for the Libs who helped shore up marginals in her state
2019: Ditto, Shorten wasn’t gaining ground in WA with negative gearing or franking credits.

Even with McGowan going, a more recent state poll credits Labor with 59-41 lead. I’m not sure why Libby Mettam and others believe the Libs can win majority government in 2025, Cook is no Campbell Newman.

For all those reasons, Labor isn’t suffering a 7-8% swing in WA at the federal election and is more just wishful thinking.

@daniel t define recent state poll. As instated even Labor is anticipating loses here and is looking to offset it with gains in qld. I can bet you they will. They got a huge unprecedented swing towards them in 2022 thanks to the popularity of Mark McGowan,ncovid protectionism, Morrison’s comments and the got stance on China, friendly relations with China won’t save them, it’s the economy stupid many Chinese are small business owners and they vote with whichever party helps them. Look at the swing the libs got in Rockingham with McGowan leaving. With McGowan gone covid over and the libs no longer bashing China and wa, people will return to their traditional voting demographics. I can bet there were people saying it wouldn’t flip Labor with the large margins too but it did. Albo isnt popular in wa either being from left inner city seat in Sydney.

I expect Pearce to stay with Labor. If you look at demographic change and how much the northern suburbs of Perth have swung towards Labor at both the state and federal level compared to the statewide average, it would suggest the area is trending towards Labor. For the same reason, I expect Moore to remain marginal.

On the other hand, Hasluck, Swan, and Tangney are vulnerable and will likely come down to how much of a profile the incumbents are able to build.

@ Nicholas
The reason i said Pearce may fall to Libs is that is is a mortgage belt electorate so can swing violently especially due to interest rates. It is also much more Anglo with recent British immigrants so different to other growth areas in Perth such as Piara Waters/Harrisdale or areas like La Trobe (Vic) which have a more ethnically diverse population. Moore is a more established and wealthier area with older housing stock but still very white unlike Tangney. I dont believe Swan is in plan the Western part in the City of South Perth has a teal demographic which is hostile to Dutton and the Eastern part is established working class and has a large Muslim Community which will also be hostile to Dutton especially due to recent events in the Middle East. I do agree with your point that Pearce is rapidly changing moving from Peri-Urban to Outer Suburban Mortgage belt but it still does not have demographics to make it reliable labor such as manufacturing, unionised workers, Low SES ethnic communities something that Swan has in the eastern part

@Nimalan

You make a good point. I don’t have a good sense of what the sentiment towards the government is among lenders.

I would point out that bachelor degrees and professionals in Pearce are slightly below the state average (this differs from Greater Springfield in Brisbane and most growth areas in Sydney), but yes, it’s far from the eastern part of Swan.

@ Nicholas
maybe a good comparison to Pearce would be the area around Camden/parts of Wollondilly which are growth areas but much more Anglo but have lower levels of education that the state average more tradies etc. The area around Sunbury in Melbourne is also comparable as this areas is not getting diverse with growth. Most other growth areas like Greater Springfield, NW Sydney, Casey-Cardinia, Wyndham, Melton etc tend to have an over-representation of South Asians and Hindus. Piara Waters which i mentioned fits that profile. The Eastern part of Swan around Kewdale is based on the freight industry similar to places like Chullora in Sydney and has a very large Muslim community in contrast to the Western part which is full of private schools and waterfront mansions.

the 2025 election in wa will give us an idea how it will pan out federally. both the federal and state elections in 21/22 bloated labors vote because of numerous factors including covid/mcgowans popularity and the fact that scott morrison alienated wa and chinese voters with rhetoric designed for home audiences. they wont hold or lose all those divisions but it will be a mash up some where in the middle and theres no precedent for these factors

Nimalan and Nicholas, I feel that the outer northern suburbs of Perth around Butler and Mindarie may be like the northern growth suburbs of Brisbane between Caboolture and Redcliffe/Petrie (places like North Lakes, Narangba and Burpengary). These suburbs are similar to the aforementioned localities in Sydney and Melbourne (Camden/Sunbury respectively) in having low proportions of residents from CALD backgrounds and greater proportion of those who are ethnically white.