Moore – Australia 2022

Vince Connelly, MP for abolished Stirling, is planning to challenge Ian Goodenough for the Liberal preselection.

I’ve lived in Moore or neighbouring Cowan for all but 2 years of my life, currently in Moore now, and would love it if Connelly knocked out the useless Goodenough!

Anton Kreitzer
SENSATIONAL!!!!!!. Agree with every word you have said.

Dare i ask your opinion about whether Goodenough might have been challenged earlier if he was not asian ?
Is there tokenism in play ? It has always seemed not that Ian failed to get there on merit, but even that merit was impossible to discern !
cheers WD

@winediamond

I think Albert Jacob may have gone for the seat had Connelly’s not been abolished, I don’t see it as anything to do with Goodenough’s ancestry. More to do with his ties to Globalheart Church, which is a BIG megachurch in Joondalup. Jacob is also a member of the church, but served as a minister in the Barnett state government, and is now Mayor of Joondalup council.

Goodenough is simply not good enough for Moore. Liberal hold regardless but should be marginal if the current polls are anything to believe. Tangrey and Canning fall before this in a catastrophic year for the Libs.

So Vince finally realised he can’t win in Cowan? He might have stood a better chance than a generic liberal candidate however

If Morrison intervenes to help Goodenough it could make this seat vulnerable because they learned it the hard way in Gilmore.

This will be the real test for WA Liberals to see how powerful the factions are and whether they learnt anything from the last state election.

If Goodenough stays then the factions are too strong and the Liberals learnt nothing. Moore is in play for Labor if Goodenough stays. Just look at the WA swings in the 1983 election.

How much does the Liberal Party want to stay in power.

Anton Kreitzer
What is it with pollies & their weird churches of the fringe. Then therein the religion of the greens, & the high priests of that cult….!

wd
I assume that means Extinction Rebellion and Greenpeace are churches?

I agree though, regardless of Goodenough’s ethnicity, he is the second most useless of WA’s entire parliamentary delegation after Steve Irons in terms of lack of effort. Labor will struggle to win, but there’s a lot of voters in WA who voted Labor for the first time at the state election, and anything is possible.

Labor hold all the state seats which overlap (Kingsley, Joondalup, Hillarys, Carine, Burns Beach) and while Carine would probably not vote Labor in for a while the federal government over here are so unpopular that nothing can surprise me anymore.

I’ve previously lived in this seat and I know more people who live within Moore than any other seat in the country. Labor would only win this if the stars align, the Liberals could nominate somebody with the talent of a brick (as they did in 2013) and even in a good year for Labor, expect to hold.

That being said, Carine through to Burns Beach swung very strongly to Labor across 2017 & 2021 and polling does seem to strongly indicate that a chunk of that monstrous swing McGowan got in his favour back in March has stuck around (exacerbated by certain comments by certain leaders). Although polling can give us a snapshot into how voters are feeling right now, it won’t say much as to how those same voters will actually cast their votes in 6-8 months time, too much is TBD here.

If Goodenough is re-nominated, Connolly’s challenge goes down in flames on full display in the public eye and Labor nominate a decent candidate, expect the swing to put this seat into marginal territory (sub 4%)

If Connolly succeeds expect nothing substantial to happen, maybe a 3-5% swing to Labor, but nothing that won’t be reversed in 2025.

How likely is Goodenough to lose preselection? From what little I know about him he seems to spend his entire life stacking his branch.

If Goodenough wins preselection – it means that Pearce, Husluck and Swan are changing with Canning and Tangney in play. If he holds on I would suggest that Moore is more likely to fall than Canning and Tangney.

I think Goodenough is not good enough to be able to continue his next to non-eventful parliamentary career. Sashay away.

So now Goodenough has won pre-selection is this a seat that is a possible for Labor. As per a comment before I think this is more likely to be a Labor seat than Canning and Tangney. In election there is always one outlier seat that falls in an election. I think Moore is the seat

Vince Connelly to be encouraged to run in Pearce instead as a consolation prize? Seems like although it was close (39-36), Ian Goodenough’s connections as the sitting member meant he held the cards.

Would Vince Connelly get parachuted into Pearce if Christian Porter decides to pull the pin or is given a tap on the shoulder? A WA perspective would be welcomed.

Porter won’t go. The guy has the biggest ego in WA. He will stay and fight on to satisfy his ego. Vince Connelly in my opinion would have a decent chance in Perth. The Stirling parts redistributed to Perth were strong Liberal territory and makes Perth an even more marginal seat.

Patrick Gorman doesn’t seem to be as popular has Tim Hammond and Stephen Smith were in Perth. He seems to be one of those people made in a lab and spend their entire life preparing to run for Parliament.

The Liberal candidates in Perth in the previous Elections have been totally incompetent and were given next to zero campaign resources. So I think if Connelly runs in Perth and Libs give it a good go, they might have a chance.

I for one am deflated that Goodenough beat Connelly 🙁

patreon_5709227
I’m curious as to what you might see as evidence of Porter’s huge ego ?

Winediamond – is the question to patreon is that sarcastic? Obviously you never lived in Western Australia, went to university with Porter and followed his career. He is one out of touch guy and always was.

James
No We all see things that others do, & don’t . When anyone makes a very strong or emphatic statement, or judgement, it can be revealing, or intriguing as to why, & what is their experience.
For instances two closest “hollywood Archetypes (male) would be Sean Bean, & Clint Eastwood obviously he doesn’t have their physicality, which is why they are stars.

Lets talk about the seat of Moore on the site. Is it possible for Labor to win it, now the Liberals have selected Goodenough over Connelly. Something tells me it is more likely for Labor to win this seat over Canning and Tangney even though the margin is so large. Interesting at the 2007 election, Labor won 3 seats with margins of 10% of more.

James
Fine, but you did ask.
Everyone is getting way ahead of themselves. McGowan has done a good, if not excellent job of igniting WA parochialism, if not paranoia about the Libs/Fed being the “adversary”, or victimiser (of poor WA !) So it’s reasonable to expect a moderate swing against the libs statewide.

Any prediction to quantify that, is going to be intuitive/instinctive, more than analytical. Essentially a guess.
Instinct would move me to suggest that more than 4% would be unlikely, as still can’t see Albo making anyone feel very compelled (about much at all). Therefore seeing a seat like Moore flip is not impossible but as unlikely as me receiving an apology (for anything!) from my first wife (Mrs WD mk1!).
cheers WD

It would be too soon to call this a Labor gain but the way things are looking yes it could be vulnerable. It will be decided within 5% so it will be marginal regardless.

Why would young liberals who are usually more moderate back Goodenough? Any explanation for this? The young is typically less religious than the older generations so I wouldn’t think the young liberals have any association whatsoever with the Pentecostal churches.

I honestly can’t see liberals loosing here.

I agree with you WD. The published polling is showing a swing and a healthy one at that. However, it is not indicative of the wipeout that some seem to be pushing. That belief seems to be entirely predicated on the State election results which – and I know I sound like a broken record – are very rarely transposable to Federal elections. Covid may change that, but I am decidedly unconvinced.

The Libs have been overperforming in WA for 15 years. My feeling is that the State will return to a more historical norm – 50/50 or thereabouts. I would be very surprised if Labor achieved a swing greater than 5-6%.

Daniel – I don’t think Young Liberals are more moderate. Most everything I hear about them makes them sound like a mix between Liberal Party legacies and obnoxious fratboys/hardcore hard-right, or alt-right, headbangers. 4chan types.

Lawngnome, as someone who used to be a member of the Young Libs, your characterisation is scarily accurate. The worst by far though had to be the arrogant rich kids. Ugh.

That The Young Liberals are “moderate” could not be further from what I’ve observed. The only people in my generation who support the Liberal Party to the extent that they’d be interested in joining The Young Liberals are solidly right-wing at the very least, if not far-right.

As a more general comment, Liberal supporters in my generation are on average significantly further to the right than Liberal supporters in my parents’ and grandparents’ generation. It takes strong conservative conviction for someone my age to be gravitated towards supporting the Liberal Party.

The whole raison d’être for the Young Libs is sex and influence. Why else join unless you are one of the above categories of “…obnoxious fratboys/hardcore hard-right, or alt-right, headbangers. 4chan types”? Hormonal uni social climber types abound within their ranks. It’s always been the same. After all, Bill Hartley used to be a WA Little Libs frat boy – yes, that Bill Hartley! – and you would never call him ‘glamorous’. How do I know? I was around Melbourne’s Brighton push in the ’60s when the daughter of the local Lib MP – nicknamed ‘Punchy’ – was ‘much desired’. Politics was the last thing on anyone’s mind. Not me though. I never joined and I was well brought up by my mum (wink).

Gareth Parker said on Insiders that Swan and Pearce was the main gain for both parties. Which is no surprise. But he suggested some in Labor thought Moore could be a possibility. I would have thought Hasluck would have been more of a chance for Labor then Moore. Parker didn’t mention Hasluck.

The TPP swing at the 2021 state election was 14.1 pp. Let’s look at the swings in electoral districts that overlap with Moore:
• Burns Beach: 21.5
• Carine: 12.7
• Joondalup: 24.7
• Hillarys: 19.3
• Kingsley: 15.7

Of course people vote differently between the state and federal levels, but here we’re talking about a swing – does this suggest Moore might swing more strongly towards Labor than the rest of WA?

@Political Nightwatchman – Moore could be one of those seats like North Sydney that changes (i.e. up the pendulum) whereas seats like Husluck (which I think will change) down the pendulum don’t fall. Maybe the people of Moore have had enough of a conservative member.

@Nicholas – those numbers for the state seats are scary. For Labor to hold each of those seats by margins of 10% or more (except Carine) just shows what a bizarre state election WA had.

I think with Hasluck having a more prominent and respected MP such as Ken Wyatt who has more profile who is a minister may save him.

Goodenough is about as useless as a chocolate teapot, far from minister material, little media profile (except for his gaffes) and his latest preselection upset where he was saved by his fellow evangelical happy clapper support base and Nick Goiran shows he is a liability, plus with the huge swings to Labor at last year’s state election that margin could evaporate quickly.

Getup is very likely to target Goodenough (along with Hastie in Canning) as they are both hard-right MPs in safe seats that could be under threat with the large anticipated swing to the ALP.

The swing towards Labor will be nowhere near as large as what you expect, due to a combination of things:
1. Mark McGowan’s growing unpopularity.
2. People have short memories, and so have forgotten all the times that Scott Morrison has attacked WA.
3. People can tell the difference between federal and state politics, and often do not vote the same federally as they did in a state election. Case in point: the 2019 federal election. It was between the 2017 landslide state election, and the 2021 ultralandslide state election, but yet the Liberals dominated in Western Australia.
Do not expect the swing to be more than a few points towards Labor, if it is towards Labor at all. This means that Moore has no chance of being won by Labor, and seats such as Swan and Pearce are more likely than not to be held onto by the Liberals.

Damo K
Yeah not sure about that.

Damo K is probably right about the variance between state and federal results – the 2019 federal result in WA was pretty much status quo and saw only minimal swing to Labor compared to the 2017 state election result.

I would probably disagree about McGowan’s popularity – I believe that he still maintains considerable support amongst most locals and the ‘aggressive’ suppression strategy seems to be working, omicron cases are minimal (averaging under 100 per day) unlike other states which still regularly record 1k+ cases daily.

I wouldn’t say Swan is likely be a Liberal hold. It’s a marginal seat to begin with and the government is on the nose.

Moore, though, will likely stay Liberal even if their member is subpar. It’d take a swing like those seen in the state election, and I doubt that will happen.

I live in Moore and while I’m a blue blooded Tory, even at the 2021 state election, I was disappointed when Goodenough defeated Vince Connelly for pre-selection – sure half the branches like Goodenough, but the other half think he’s a useless seat warmer.

I doubt a Voices of candidate will do well here. This is not really a small-l liberal area they could do well in Curtin (more small l liberal). This is really middle ring to outer suburbs. The Outer Northern suburbs is a bible belt and has a lot of Evangelical churches . A Voices of candidate similarly will not do well in Menzies, Mitchell, Berowa, Tangney, Cook, Aston, Hughes etc this are more suburban seats rather than Doctors wives seat (like Goldstein, Kooyong etc)

@Damo K, you may be right but state and federal politics have been mingling a lot over the past two years with all the national cabinet meetings and PM v Premier fights in the media. WA obviously aligns with Labor pretty heavily on a state level, there is no way it won’t have an effect on our fed voting.

Also, people from all factions are hating on Scomo pretty hard right now. Smirk all he wants, his image may be unsalvageable

My predictions for WA seats so far:

Perth likely Labor hold, strong Green vote allows Patrick Gorman to win on preferences.
Cowan likely Labor hold, Connelly has avoided gaffes but his failed attempt at ‘seat switching’ could cost him in a pro Labor environment.
Swan and Pearce likely Labor gains due to retirement of sitting MPs and selection of ‘strong’ Labor candidates.
Hasluck a toss-up, Ken Wyatt is a strong incumbent and could minimise the swing against him.
All other seats considered safe for the respective incumbent party.

Applying this result with Liberals retaining Hasluck gives a House delegation of 8 Liberal and 7 Labor, the strongest Labor result since 2000. If Labor gains Hasluck, then they would hold a majority of WA seats (8-7 split) which I believe hasn’t happened for decades.

Yoh An:

My predications for WA seats:

1) Perth – Labor hold – may get 40% primary vote
2) Cowan – Labor hold – margin 5%
3) Swan – Labor gain – margin 3 – 4%
4) Pearce – Labor gain – marginal
5) Hasluck – Labor gain – marginal
6) Moore – possible Labor gain.
All other seats to remain the same.

My view is Moore as Likely Liberal retain/hold – the max swing to Labor in WA is likely to be in the range 3-5% (about half that of the 10% swing statewide). Whilst Goodenough is a weak incumbent, the beachside suburbs of Perth are fairly affluent and are more likely to stick with the Liberals, albeit with a narrow 3-4% margin post election. Other Liberal seats are considered safe as their incumbents are not as accident prone.

The swing to Labor may weaken further, Morrison has recently backed McGowan on his border closure stance in an attempt to try and garner Liberal support. If this is the case, and future polls may indicate this trend, then the seats of Cowan, Pearce and Swan all become toss-ups and Hasluck would become a likely Liberal hold.

I was right. The West Australian is reporting today that Mark McGowan’s popularity has plummeted since December 2021. It’s now almost impossible for Labor to win any seats off the Liberals in WA this year, seeing as McGowan’s popularity was going to be their main strategy.

McGowan losing support is probably a consequence of his failure to fully control the covid spread in WA. I believe even the attempt at suppression was flawed to start with, as omicron is so volatile. McGowan might as well fully open borders in March, in line with some of the health modelling to peak early and avoid complications with flu season in winter.

There is a huge difference between the wa state election results 57% and 70% 2pp and what will happen at the federal govt level. I suspect 1 to 3 alp seats extra.If Mr Wyatt retires 3 is more likely.

First leaflet arrived in my letterbox today from the Labor person Tom French. It seems to indicate Labor are taking this seat more seriously then they have in the past. Every seat up here is Labor, including seats like Joondalup, Burns Beach and Hillarys which have 20% margins. Certainly a lot of movement in the northern suburbs, could be one to watch.

Labor have preselected law graduate Tom French as their their candidate in Goodenough. French has a background as an electrician, as well as hospitality and business management it was reported.

Tom French previously contested Pearce at the 2016 election.