Menzies – Australia 2022

Should be Liberal retain. The newly transferred areas from Chisholm have swung very strongly towards the ALP (nearly 10% margins) though so it may be interesting to see what happens after being transferred from a marginal seat to a safe seat. The new Liberal candidate seems to basically be another Andrew Hastie but not as far right as Kevin Andrews so Manningham will probably swing to him since Kevin Andrews is gone but the rest of the seat under the Eastern Freeway may swing to the ALP like the rest of the state.

On another note, I think to resolve the ridiculous southern boundary of the seat, the commission should’ve considered extending the southern boundary to Canterbury Road while giving up the eastern green wedge parts of the seat to Deakin. Something like @Nicholas Weston’s proposal would be ideal.

Menzies boundaries are a mess. They really should have North Warrandyte in Jagjaga & the other suburbs that fall in in the council area of Whitehorse in Deakin & Chisholm.

Andrews was MP for 31 years so I’m sure some will miss him (I would if I lived in this area)

Having worked with Andrews’ office he was a plodder and manipulated by the party factions especially younger ambitious people who were only in it for themselves. The world passed Andrews by 31 years ago

Agree the southern boundary is ridiculous. They unwound Higgins/Macnamara but left this??

I really don’t get much sense that Andrews has a strong personal vote here. It might be more like a Michael Danby situation, where regeneration from a polarising figure to younger talent actually improves the party’s vote.

Interesting how much of a social/political divide the Eastern Fwy is, so much so that every booth to the south is Labor and every booth to the north is Liberal.
Always thought of the Monash Fwy and the Yarra River being bigger social divides.

Adam, This is the seat where i grew up and lived virtually all my life. Menzies historically did not go south of the Eastern Freeway. Manningham LGA (where i live) is quite conservative and for the most part consists of more affluent ethnic communities and Nouveau riche. To give a Sydney comparison, if you drew an LGA starting at the M2 to include Castle Hill, West Pennant Hills, Cherrybrook, Beecroft, Dural and go into semi-rural areas such as Glenorie/Kenthurst that is Manningham. While the area South of the Eastern Freeway in Whitehorse LGA is more standard middle Class like Parramatta LGA (this area is more of a bellwether). So the M2 is a good comparision for the Eastern Freeway. It is not a sharp social divide as all areas in this seat are some spectrum of the middle class. Also the Yarra River is not a major social divide in this part of Melbourne compared to inner melbourne such as Kew versus Collingwood. For example Eaglemont in Jagajaga is more affluent than any suburb in Menzies.

I happen to have lived in Whitehorse LGA in Melbourne, and at various times in Hornsby, The Hills, and Parramatta LGAs in Sydney, and I can confirm that Nimalan’s comparison is spot on.

Naomi Oakley, former police officer and owner of a private security firm, will run as the Labor candidate in the seat of Menzies.

No wonder I cop weird looks when I do my shopping on the northern side of the eastern….. never would of thought it would have been so conservative but I guess it makes sense given that area is basically a retirement village mashed with wealthier younger office bound individuals.

I suspect this will be the safest Liberal seat in Metropolitan Melbourne after the election. Not to say there won’t be a swing to the left but there will likely be a bigger swing against the Liberals in Aston because of Tudge and of course in Goldstein

To any Liberal Party insiders, are the local branches in the seat controlled by the hard right faction, the centre-right or the moderates? Wondering whether Kevin Andrews’ toppling was due to anti-Andrews sentiment, Keith Wolahan having personal support regardless of Kevin Andrews or whether the branches simply thought Kevin Andrews stayed too long. The media reported that Keith Wolahan had the support of moderates but he clearly isn’t one and just seems like a younger Kevin Andrews.

To any Liberal Party insiders, are the local branches in the seat controlled by the hard right faction, the centre-right or the moderates? Wondering whether Kevin Andrews’ toppling was due to anti-Andrews sentiment, Keith Wolahan having personal support regardless of Kevin Andrews or whether the branches simply thought Kevin Andrews stayed too long. The media reported that Keith Wolahan had the support of moderates but he clearly isn’t one and just seems like a younger Kevin Andrews.

To steal a line from the legendary Paul Keating – Wolohan is what I’d call a young fogey. Andrews was the old fogey, he’s the young fogey.

Moving Menzies into Nillumbik and Whitehorse is ridiculous, moving the eastern part back into Maroondah would make much more sense

Doing some research, Keith Wolahan is very likely just a younger version of Kevin Andrews. SBS reported that his preselection has the support of a far-right anti-Aboriginal Land Rights group, he says that national security is his focus and he complains a lot about identity politics. He also doesn’t live in the electorate though his suburb of Warranwood/Croydon Hills borders Menzies so fair enough, probably got redistributed away.

Really not much choice, people will vote for the same vomit and they will get the same outcomes and lies until next election.

Not going to change the facts that Australia will sink with the U.S.

Next redistributions will kick out Nillumbik and Whitehorse suburbs and put Warranwood, Ringwood North, Croydon Hills & Croydon North into the seat as they demographically aline with this electorate.

I doubt that would happen since the direction that the AEC has gone over the past few redistributions is to progressively remove the Maroondah suburbs.

What’s more likely is Menzies gets pushed further into either Nillumbik like the 2018 redistribution or Whitehorse council like the 2021 redistribution.

I live in that residential wedge that has been shuffled about for the past two elections. We had been in the Deakin electorate for decades, and the electorate had shifted from being Labor to Liberal a couple of times. Held by Labor under Hawke & Rudd (2007). Mike Symons held the seat again in 2010.
It was great to be part of an electorate that expressed the changing will of the people to support a change of government. Governments don’t always deserve to be returned. Labor didn’t after the reemergence of Rudd. Shame that the Liberal’s choice for leader was Abbott.
When we were moved into Chisholm for the last election there was a real chance that the seat would go to Labor. Then along comes Liu’s purple & white deception. (The colours by the way of the AEC). I was a personal witness to the outrage by the young people of Chinese heritage who were voicing their opposition to the Mandarin only message, on those seemingly AEC signs, which were telling the Chinese voters (a lot of whom have no English & were recent arrivals from Communist China) that the AEC ADVISED them to Vote 1 – Liberal.
I was a polling booth assistant at that election & I lost count of the young Chinese heritage voters who raised the issue with me when I marked their name off the roll.
When Liu claimed she had no knowledge of the origin or placement of these signs at every polling booth In Chisholm, she was clearly being loose with the truth. 545 votes was what was needed to keep the seat Labor. The signs had their desired effect.
Now the Blackburn wedge is absorbed into Menzies! The socioeconomic character of the region north of the freeway has no connection whatsoever with that slim wedge south of the freeway. Warrandyte & Templestowe (Westerfolds Park & Pound Bend) is where we go for picnics and a day out in the bush, walking along the banks of the Yarra River or shopping for organic fruit & candles and handicrafts made by local artisans or grown on the orchards. No orchards in Blackburn.
Dumping us in Menzies, a Liberal stronghold for over 30-years, will remove us from being part of that joyous democratic process of having your voice heard when the Government stinks, as this one does, and seeing to it that your vote counts to make a change.
Kevin Andrews held the seat with a more than 15% marginal lead in the 2-party preferred outcome at the last election. Labor or the Greens simply cannot triumph over that. The Greens outpoll Labor. The rusted on Liberal voters in Menzies (Templestowe & Warrandyte) will return their candidate with a similar margin this election.
I have had personal communication with Keith Wolahan, via email, and he is a nice guy but clearly a right affiliated politician. A Lawyer & ex-ADF. A Loss to the Law, it has been stated. That’s why he is the Liberal candidate for the electorate. The Menzies branch have nominated their man, the young fogey replacement for Andrews.
The Liberals are so confident about Menzies that Andrews secured less than $1m of expenditure for his seat during the last Parliament. That’s what I call hubris. No pork barreling here, that’s for sure.
No car parks, swimming pools or gun club renovations.
The next 30-years for Wolahan in Federal Parliament will surely be good for him. I just hope it is also good for the seat of Menzies.

30 years? Im absolutely laughing if you believe this guy will still be the MP by 2050. You do realise there are likely to be demographic changes and redistributions between now and then? And this isn’t out of reach for Labor if they win a landslide which will likely happen someday.

If the Liberal party doesn’t change course I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes and remains marginal for the foreseeable future. Liberal hold but will be within 4% and shift could weaken this margin further next redistribution.

The problem Menzies has always had is that the Manningham LGA has a clear community of interest and strong boundaries on most sides, but it isn’t quite big enough for a federal electorate, so something needs to be added on and none of the options are particularly satisfactory. Going to the south is probably a less bad option than crossing the Yarra, which in this part of the world is a significant physical barrier (there are only two road bridges between Heidelberg and Yarra Glen). The eastern edge looks movable at first glance but that area is semi-rural, so you’d have to go a long way east to gain the necessary population.

Despite all the talk about Keith Wolahan being a young fogey, he’s 45, not young at all, only 5 years younger than Frydenberg. He certainly is a hard-right fogey though. I don’t believe he will stick for that long until 2050. He’ll be gone in his 60’s so I’d say Menzies would be stuck with him for 15 to 20 years. Even then, he might not even last that long since he himself set a precedent for challenging MP’s who’ve been sticking around too long and could suffer the same fate. In terms of redistribution, his hold on the seat would be threatened if Menzies gets pushed further into Whitehorse and loses the rural wedge areas of Manningham. The seat’s core in Doncaster and Templestowe has never had a strong Labor campaign so if Labor actually put effort in there, this seat could swing hard. There are lots of local grievances in this seat that have not been addressed at all in both federal and state politics like a lack of rail public transportation, poor infrastructure etc.

@ Dan M/Stephen
I am a Manningham resident. I agree that Labor has never really campaigned strongly in Doncaster/Templestowe it is possible that this might happen if the seat has more competitive boundaries with more of Whitehorse Council . IMHO Labor can do well in the southern Part of Doncaster/Doncaster East (South of George Street) which tends to be less leafy and less elevated it also has more apartments, units etc. While Manningham does not vary much socio-economically the area that tend to be hilly and have good views tend to be more affluent. i do feel that it will be difficult for Labor to make inroads into Templestowe and parts of Doncaster East such as the Millgate estate, Gumnut Gully Booth etc. These areas are MacMansion suburbia and similar to the Hills District (Templestowe reminds my of Castle Hill, NSW). Regarding Eastern Freeway i dont feel it is a major social divide as i pointed out in my early post in this thread. For example i dont feel the Beverley Hills PS booth etc and the Blackburn North booths vary much socio-economically the results are due to different campaigning decisions by the parties.

Why on earth would you vote for Keith Wolahan in the Menzies electorate. It’s like voting for
a younger version of Kevin Andrews. We need a change of government. The current one has done
nothing but give us slogans and spin. We need a government that wants to make a difference
not one that just wants to win the election.

What will the Liberal Party look like if it loses the moderate Josh Frydenberg?

Bob I disagree, North Warrandyte should be with the rest of Warrandyte and shares more interest with the rest of Menzies (except for the newly added southern end) than it does with the southern part of Jagajaga (except maybe on social issues).
Stephen you seem to be upset because you’re not in a marginal electorate that votes the way you want it to. Not everyone can live in marginal seats.
Also talks of Wolohan been some confirmed hard right paleo conservative might be jumping the gun a bit. Whilst his views on indigenous land ownership may seem iffy he did vote yes on the SSM plebiscite.
It will be interesting to see how the Warrandyte area or other northern parts of Menzies will vote with a more moderate candidate and how much of a drag Andrews was on the vote there. In saying that it’s likely there won’t be a swing there due to anti-Morrison sentiment. Maybe we will need to see next election.

Also Stephen i wouldn’t say Templestowe and Warrandyte are rusted on Liberal, more Templestowe and parts of Doncaster East are rusted on. Whilst Warrandyte does have a strong base for a Liberal vote it’s shown it can swing and has swung away from the Liberals quite a bit in recent elections.

Could also probably add Donvale, Park Orchards and Wonga Park to list of rusted on Liberals. Although they’re probably not as impactful as Templestowe and Doncaster East which make up a large portion of the electorates population.

@Anton Kreitzler: I am sure you miss Donald Trump too.

I don’t live in the area, but I know people who do. I certainly don’t miss Andrews. He manufactured racism against Africans. He was responsible for torture of refugees. He was anti abortion, anti union, and anti LGBTQI+. Good riddance to him.

KA has been my local member since i was 2.5 years old. I have many found memories of growing up in this wonderfully diverse and harmonious community of Manningham. However, i dont think i will ever be nostalgic for him. The world has changed a lot in that time. IMHO i never felt he had a personal vote here.

@ North east, you are correct it is Templestowe and part of Doncaster East (east of Blackburn Road) that is rusted on Liberal especially around the Millgate estate etc which i now quite well and is very conservative. South of George street it is a bit less affluent and middle class so more marginal such as the Doncaster Gardens and Beverley Hills booth. Bulleen used to be a bit better for Labor as well.

Well certainly no one expected the results for this seat. Labor could very well gain this seat or this seat is one of the most marginal Coalition held in the country.

What an Earthquake never in my life what i have ever thought this would be hanging by a thread with this seat being ALP ahead at anytime in the election. This is truly an unmitigated disaster even if they manage to scrap through on postal votes.

All I can say now is that expect announcements on a Doncaster rail line anytime in the next few years.

I said this could be at risk. Labor can win this. This isn’t as rock solid as people think. It leans liberal but can be lost and tonight proves it.

Surprising to see such a big swing in Menzies because Wolahan is a very good candidate. The Libs will hold this but he’ll have to work hard because it’s a logical place for Labor to invest a lot of resources next time around.

@ John Smith, i look forward to announcement on Doncaster rail. As a fellow resident i have been sick of this seat being taken for Granted. If Libs continue a populist rhetoric this seat will be lost. I did not see much of a Labor campaign, next time may well invest resources. This result was a true meltdown.

A surprise result indeed, didn’t expect this electorate to go down to the wire

Regards Doncaster rail – I’d suspect they’d just point at the map that it’s already planned to be on the surburban rail loop.

But maybe. Certainly interesting to see this in play.

@Expat. What Federal Labor could do is say to Dan Andrews that a condition for funding for the SRL is to extend the first phase to Doncaster as well.

Indeed. That’s not something that can happen quickly though – we’re still looking at 15 years to get it there. Plus the project kind of needs to be built in stages connecting existing lines, they wouldn’t really run a dead-end line to Doncaster.

But you’re right – an announcement from Albo and Dan Andrews saying we’re fast tracking Stage 2 to Doncaster on the SRL would look good to the locals.

Have to wait for the both by booth results but Dutton’s rhetoric on China could have put off the Chinese community in Doncaster, Doncaster East, Blackburn North and Box Hill North.

@Entrepenuer, yes it does seem disappointing for Wolohan as he does seem like a good candidate.

It’s worth mentioning Labor put absolutely zero effort in here. Even if Wolahan edges ahead on postals, it’s very vulnerable since this is a very politically neglected electorate. Dutton as Liberal leader won’t help Wolahan here should he win.

Looking at the booth results on Poll Bludger, everything under the Eastern Freeway is red just like the last election. What’s unusual is that Doncaster is completely red and most of Doncaster East is also red. These are the areas with the largest Chinese Australian populations in the seat. It’s really only Templestowe and the rural wedge that remains blue.

@Dan M

Actually, something that I’d forgotten about until today was there’s another future Doncaster rail possibility.

Once the Metro Tunnel is complete (within the next five or so years), there potentially could be Metro 2 – going across town from Fisherman’s Bend – CBD (probably SX and/or Flagstaff) – Parkville – Fitzroy – Clifton Hill – Bulleen – Doncaster (interchange with SRL).

It’s been designed in concept, and Parkville Metro station has already been designed to be a future interchange.

Question is whether the funds are there in the short-term.

@John Smith Where can i find this live update of the booths on poll bludger.

@North East https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/HR.htm?s=Menzies
Looking back, the Liberal Party has slightly improved in the booth results since I last saw them but still it’s not pretty. The Bulleen one has since flipped from blue to red. Warrandyte has swung even more to Labor.

As for @Stephen, you’ve got your wish. Menzies is looking to be one of the most marginal seats in the country. Given both parties haven’t really put effort in in the past, though Labor more so since at least the Liberals paid for advertisements for Wolahan in Westfield Doncaster, I’d be expecting some serious pork barrelling in the next 3 years.

@John Smith Thank you