McPherson – Australia 2022

Carl Ungerer is the Labor candidate for McPherson according to QLP twitter.

I don’t understand why Labor would even put remote effort into this federally. They act as if this is winnable on twitter, It really isn’t. The last time the Gold Coast was Labor was probably during the Curtin years. It’s been 80 years. Not a chance in hell freezing over for Labor to win this unless the Liberals are absolutely annihilated nationwide.

Perhaps this could set him up for a run in Currumbin in 2024 against Laura Gerber?

Carl Ungerer was a Labor candidate for Mermaid Beach at the 2020 QLD state election. He didn’t do too bad either with a 5.7% increase on his primary vote. The margin for Mermaid Beach is now only 4.4%. Funny enough, I thought it was a safer LNP state seat then that.

This is an obvious LNP retain. But I disagree with Daniel in terms for Labor of completely non-competing in these seats. As a good result for Labor in these type seats can translate to the senate vote. Labor only knows that too well after winning only one senate seat at the last federal election in Queensland. By saying that yeah I wouldn’t expect too many resources from Labor in this seat.

Labor Twitter is very dumb, but I think PN is pretty much spot on here. The Greens have similar thoughts about the Coasts; we can imagine modest gains in our primary vote, but nobody seriously thinks we’ll get lower house seats out of them anytime soon. But of course, we want another Senator too.

I’ve always wondered why the Coasts have such a huge number of ‘split ticketers’, or state Labor/federal LNP voters. The intuitive answer is taxes, especially ‘retirement’ taxes, but the LNP didn’t increase their margins all that much at the last election. I wonder how much research has been done on it.

The other reason you still run anyway is so that voters have the choice, to reduce disillusionment.

I tend to think a large part of Ungerer doing well at the last QLD state election is in large part due to who he was running against, Mermaid Ray should have been given his marching orders years ago

A less contentious and controversial LNP state candidate, and the margin would be considerably lagrer in all likelihood

Carl Ungerer is a good Labor candidate,
although the Liberal scare campaign on supposed tax increases and the loss
of franking credits under Labor worked well on the Gold Coast last time .Albanese won’t make himself as much of a target for a scare campaign as Shorten did. There will be a slight swing against the coalition, but Liberals will retain.

Joshua Berrigan from the United Australia Party is the BEST candidate running this election. He is a impressive person with a strong business and legal background. Josh has spent the past 15 years working in the community to help our most vulnerable kids build a better future. He genuinely loves and cares about his community. And everyone who meets Josh quickly see’s he is the person we NEED in politics… as is evidence by the hundred’s of video testimonials you can watch on his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/joshuaberrigan.mcpherson/

Voting Josh Berrigan for United Australia Party this year. Always voted for the majors in the past but I’ve lost confidence in them after the past few years atrocious decision making. Josh is an everyday family man and a stand up Bloke who is a part of our community that’s wanting to effect change. I read the other day Karen Andrews has half a dozen investment properties- what a joke! Give locals a chance of home ownership rather than being the Landlord fattening your pocket Karen!! Josh Berrigan for UAP has my vote.

The LNP and ALP will fight each other thinking we stand no chance. The best way to win this is focus on the Greens 11percent . We must honesty discredit using their own stated policies and what they will do in concert with Labour. They ARE NOT actually a Green Party, they are a hard LEFT of Labour party simply using the green lobby to dupe voters with fear of the unknown. If we can get that 11percent, with other preferences this is winable. Go to it.

Jacqueline, it’s perfectly understandable to lose confidence in the major parties given how out of touch they’ve been on issues like affordable housing. But may I ask, what leads you to be confident in the UAP to create change on this matter? From what I’ve seen of their policies, the only one relating to housing affordability is their desire to cap interest rates at 3%, but I’m stumped as to how they’ll accomplish that, since interest rates are set by commercial banks, influenced by Reserve Bank policy, not government policy. What leads you to believe they can make this happen if it’s not something the government has control over?

Josh Berrigan for me he is not a career politician he is a genuine person who i believe has a genuine interest in making our country a better place for everyone. I have met josh and i was taken back for the first time in 40 years I I believed in what he had to say and the policies were great and a chance to get this country back on track. I have voted labor for 40 years time for change something we will not get from Liberal, Labor or Greens. Vote 1 Josh Berrigan. If you would like to see Josh in person go to the Palmer Colonial golf course at 6.30 pm on Tuesday evening for an hour and listen to what Josh has to say you will be impressed.

Josh Berrigan for UAP has my vote! 👍

Wilson, the other UAP policy that will focus on housing affordability is the $1T in super to be invested in Australia. Much of that will go to affordable housing to increase supply. I will definitely be voting 1 UAP with preference to LNP. Having g me Josh Berrigan, he is an outstanding human being. We need them in parliament. The UAP policies are the only ones that MIGHY save us from the economic catastrophe that is about to rain down on us.

I think people that think this is a two party race still are dreaming after what the coalition has done to Australia in the last 2 years. They’ve racked up the same amount of debt in 2 years than the last 40 years. How the hell did they do that… they do everything for the benefit of the lobbyists groups and global powers that threaten them. Josh Berrigan is a weapon and under United Australia party will change the course of this big party globalist monopoly sell out of Australia. “For we are young / one and free”. Lets try and keep it that way! United Australia Party and Josh Berrigan only choice to keep Australia free. The two majors may as well be the same party

I will have no hesitation Voting for Joshua Berrigan UAP at this upcoming election. Josh is not a career politician but, someone who understands and has a passion for people and their needs. He is a family man married to Shea, they have 2 young children and live locally in Elanora. In the past I have voted for the Liberal party.
They have badly lead our great country of Australia into a disastrous position and Labor and the greens are no better.
Vote 1 Joshua Berrigan for McPherson. ✅

I wonder why a sudden influx of people supporting the UAP popped up on this page…..

Not sure what detail there is in that policy but from the way you describe it, forcing super funds to invest more in Australian markets is probably going to result in them spending more on property that’s already on the market, which would be the last thing you want in terms of increasing affordable housing.

Very curious coincidence that five separate, very real and unrelated people decided to pick today to share their psephological insight and intense excitement for the UAP candidate

Does anyone detect a pattern of one party utilising tallyroom to campaign?

Okay I’ve been letting comments through until now but a flood of people talking about why they’re voting for one candidate is not really in the spirit of this comments section.

Well said Ben. The comments above seemed to be a deliberate attempt to give relevance to the UAP.The endless UAP media ads are bad enough without this blatant attempt above at campaigning.

Ben fully support your reasonable position. 90% on this site have some sort of political alliegence. So all of us expect the occasional warning overtly written or implied. We all stray of the straight an narrow occasionally and the sight of a veiled fist is part of the cost of political commentary. So far I give you a mark of 10/10.

Okay, no more comments praising the UAP candidate from new commenters thank you very much. You’re not adding anything. The comments policy specifically prohibits using the comments section to run your campaign. No-one is being fooled into thinking it’s organic.

Furtive, I get your point on the super companies spending, but if you create a scheme where the properties they build can only be sold for say cost+15%, then that keeps the supply affordable and gives the super company a good return.

Watch this seat on election night…could be an upset but unlikely.

Margin is less than Capricornia, so I’d say there is potential for an upset

Plenty of internal national migration to the GC in the past three years, they bring their politics with them. Karen Andrews’ stance on the Biloela family and deafening silence on climate change is going to hurt her.

I’m a local dude. I’m not in any campaign. I randomly came here from a Google search to see if there was any early results.

I do know Josh and will be voting for him after being left leaning most my voting life. I can genuinely say that there isn’t anyone I know who is more suited to this task. He is the real deal. Not only a smart and excellent communicator, but also genuinely integrous and caring.

And knowing him and the effect he has on people, I also will straight up say I don’t think there is any targeted campaign to spam these comments sections. So many of us have been hurt by government and he has genuinely given us hope. I think you are seeing a genuine groundswell campaign though I don’t deny that the amount of signage funding probably was decent hahaha!

McPherson, along with Fairfax and maybe Wide Bay, is really starting to look like the ideal Climate 200 beachhead in Queensland. The LNP still has a commanding lead on 2pp with Labor, but it’s now under 60/40 in the LNP’s favor, which obviously the Teals overcame multiple times at the recent election. The numbers of irreligious people are now comparable to Ryan, Griffith and Brisbane, and most of Sydney’s North Shore for that matter- while not a perfect rubric by any means, it does indicate somewhat less socially-conservative demographics than most LNP seats. However the minor right-wing parties still command a significant combined vote, far more than they do in Brisbane or inner-city Sydney and Melbourne, so there definitely is more of a rusted-on socially conservative vote. Still, not insurmountable imo.

The Greens now poll well 20% in many McPherson booths, particularly the state seat of Burleigh, and parts of Currumbin. At a glance you could even go so far as to say it’s almost looking competitive for them, perhaps comparable to Clayfield and Stafford, and maybe even Moggill. I suspect however that postal voting is more prevalent there which could skew the on-the-day booth results to look more significant than they are. Might be worth treating as an outside chance at least.

This will be a really interesting contest in the next election now that the Queen of Investment Properties has indicated that she will be leaving at the end of her term.

Might be possible for the Greens to sneak into the 2CP. Might even be ripe for a potential teal-like contender.

I suspect Laura Gerber will jump ship and run here as the Liberals will want a woman to “pretend” they are the party of women.

Gerber easily retains this for the LNP

A teal independant could do well here, especially in the socially progressive beachside suburbs where there are a lot of apartment blocks. i think there is definitely a rusted on conservative and libertarian vote here though so most likely a liberal retain.

Fun-fact: Peter Dutton ran for internal pre-selection as LNP candidate for McPherson in 2009. Andrews ultimately won.

Dutton had aspirations to serve in this comfortable and safe division while building his profile for leadership. He has instead had to slog it out each election in the more marginal Dickson. Wonder if Dutton revisits the pivot down to the Gold Coast to cling onto his electability and leadership. Unlikely, but you never know.

@Daniel T

Are you just speculating or do you have a source? If Karen Andrews stays to the next election. Then Laura Gerber could not recontest state seat of Currumbin at the next election. And then contest Mcpherson at the federal election without putting the voters at the expense of a by-election. The next federal election probably will be after the next Queensland election but there is no certainty of that. Unless you have a source my guess is it won’t happen. LNP wouldn’t be keen on Gerber abandoning her seat of Currumbin on 0.5% margin.

@SEQ Observer

In some ways it would make sense Peter Dutton moving seats to Mcpherson. Dutton could campaign around the country as leader and wouldn’t have to defend a marginal seat like Dickson. But I don’t think it will happen because if Dutton can’t hold Dickson then he won’t likely win the election. And he will harm the Liberals chances if he abandons the marginal seat with the Liberals having no incumbent.

Politcal Nightwatchman, Speculation however I don’t see why not. 0.5% for the LNP is irrelevant when you have a 3 term government in power. If Labor couldn’t win Currumbin in the by-election or last state election, what makes you think they can next time? And Crisafulli will boost his colleagues vote on the Gold Coast as he has a Gold Coast seat himself.

The Liberals may want to choose a woman to replace Andrews, and they have 2 options in State MP’s. Laura Gerber or Ros Bates, Bates is high profile shadow cabinet minister so I doubt it would be her, So Gerber seems more likely of the 2, They could go for an unknown, but for a party is in crisis, they need decent candidates to at least stand a chance of becoming relevant again.

Luckily for me I won’t be in Queensland for much longer so I won’t have to deal with an LNP government, (although needless to say I do not like the current Labor govs record on youth crime and they refuse to ban phones in schools despite every other state doing so) And I know down in Victoria Andrews isn’t any good, but I will have an opportunity to vote against his party in 2026 when I’m in Victoria.

Agree daniel, I think the Lnp in Queensland would be favoured to win at the next election given the ‘its time’ factor and that state Labor may be seen as being stale/worn out after nearly 10 years in office, just like the nsw coalition were perceived to be at the recent election there despite a strong infrastructure and service delivery program.

Also there may be a down ballot effect with a further drag on Labor as the honeymoon period currently enjoyed by albanese may be gone by next year.

@Daniel T and Yoh An

The LNP had to make alot effort to get Laura Gerber to be the candidate in to Currumbin. She was parachuted in by the LNP executive it was reported. The reason according to Jann Stuckey was the LNP were determined to replace Stuckey with a woman because they had so few in their ranks. I honestly can’t see them letting her go into federal politics just so they can replace Karen Andrews with a woman. When recruiting Gerber into the state ranks was to combat the same problem.

Alot of generalisations that the LNP will win the next QLD state election. Time for a change will likely be a bigger factor at the next election after that if Labor win. A government after 9 years being reelected will not be defeated on ‘time for a change’ factor alone. I honestly don’t think the LNP will win the next state election unless they make inroads into Brisbane. I’ve seen no evidence they are doing that at the moment but 18 months is an eternity in politics though. David Crisafulli appeal in Gold Coast and flow on effect into other seats may be overrated. Everyone pretty much knows he gave up winning his seat back in North Queensland to hunt for a safe seat on the Gold Coast.

I also think Daniel your exaggerating how vulnerable the LNP are in Mcpherson. They are not going to lose Mcpherson and they certainly don’t need a high profile candidate to win there.

PN, a point I would add is that even though Queensland Labor will be ‘only’ 9 years in office by the upcoming election, they have actually served 30+ years in total since 1989 (albeit non-consecutive terms with 2 brief interludes between 1996-98 and 2012-15).

Granted, this in itself is not predictive because ACT Labor have served 20+ consecutive years in office without penalty, although ACT is considered a solid Labor state whereas Queensland is considered centrist and may be slightly conservative leaning overall.

I think you do have a good argument that Queensland Labor is probably in better shape to try and retain office compared to the NSW Coalition because there haven’t really been any major scandals unlike those suffered in the recent term of NSW parliament.

Every time the lnp wins in qld at the state level they set up at least another 2 terms for Labor

PN, I’m sorry but I don’t care how “safe” the seat is, if they run a Tony Abbott here they will LOSE the seat to a teal or Labor, tun the state figures here, this is a marginal seat. I’m not suggesting it will be close in normal circumstances. With a popular MP like Karen or her predecessor, they easily hold, but if they run a Tony Abbott here they will STRUGGLE.

If Jann Stuckey ran as a community independent and the Libs pre-selected a Right-winger like Abbott. They would lose this seat to Stuckey providing she got Labor and Green preferences. And the Lib primary would drop below 40%

@Daniel T, running the state figures over the top of Queensland federal elections is careless.

There is always a wide deviation between the State and Federal TPPs.

I think mainly because Queensland electors have different attitudes towards each layer of government and the services they provide.

State government services like police, health, education are very well received and Labor are perceived as strong on these. Federal government services like welfare and taxation aren’t as well received. Coalition are perceived as figures that reign in welfare and taxation.

Labor also perform well in Queensland when their campaign is able to distinguish themselves from federal Labor. Queensland state Labor are able to successfully communicate this in the context of state elections because they are not having to broaden their appeal to other states which may have differing attitudes. There are many other potential factors why state and federal TPP figures differ in Queensland but I’ll try keep concise and leave it here.

SEQ, I’m simply saying those same voters who voted Labor at the state election COULD vote the same at a federal level if the party picks candidates like Katherine Deves and if the party keeps shifting to the right.

I did say this seat is “unlikely” to be close in NORMAL circumstances. But picking a social conservative in a seat which is very socially progressive towards issues that effect gays and transgenders, issues such as climate change. I’m saying if the conservatives keep alienating their traditional small liberal base. They could be under threat in seats like this.

I guess nobody is going to believe it until the day it happens and what will the excuse be then?

Australia was never meant to be run by far-right loonies like Sky News wants/says. Even the Tories in the UK are small “l” liberals. It’s time to look at them as examples.

@Daniel

Is this seat teal territory though? Gold Coast like Brisbane probably is more progressive in issues such as abortion compared to the regions. But I’m still not sure it’s teal territory though with a lot of self funded retirees based there. Bert van Manen is known to be very religious but it hasn’t hampered him retaining his seat of Forde.

I would love Labor to win Mcpherson but I just can’t see it on the hit list. Kevin Rudd handpicked Gold Coast councilor Eddy Sarroff to contest the seat in 2007. Despite Labor’s vote boosted in Queensland at the 2007 federal election and Sarroff’s profile. Sarroff didn’t get even close to winning it.

This seat is on 9.3% – North Sydney was on 9.3% going into 2022 and a Teal won it from a low primary vote and the 2PP swing was 8.5%. So you wouldn’t say its impossible.

Will Dutton be as unpopular in his home state of Qld as Morrison was in NSW. Can Opposition leaders be as Unpopular as PM’s. Probably not. It does seem to be a changing seat though. There are a lot of voters in this seat that aren’t in the heart of the Gold Coast

PN, religion is irrelevant in this topic, because voters don’t care about an MP’s personal spiritual beliefs. They only care if they impose it on them by legislating policies that are socially conservative that go by the church.

And 2007 was 2007, Margaret May was MP and she was a popular MP. And she wasn’t far-right. The Liberal party was not hijacked yet, despite being led by arch-conservative John Howard.

Have some confidence mate. If the Libs keep shifting to the right and run a Trump style candidate here. They will lose. Just watch…

Allot of young people and young families on the Gold Coast. They are becoming less and less inclined to support the LNP and the millennial’s are not shifting to the LNP even as they age.

@Daniel T apologies for continuing the devil’s advocate case against your claims but I’m still entirely not convinced that Coalition will lose this seat with a further pivot to the right. I would point to the elated ONP + UAP vote here that suggests that there is more appetite in McPherson for this style of politics than other parts of the country. I would add to that however, that doing so would negatively & adversely impact their campaign in other parts of the country so not a great move.

At the same time, I do ALSO think there is a nascent teal vote in McPherson, it isn’t too far removed from Richmond below the border and has NIMBY anti-over-development attitudes that can be channeled towards both Greens and “teals”. I would argue this nascent teal vote would be similar in profile to the proto-teal vote in Noosa that elected Sandy Bolton or maybe even the Ballina Greens. Not quite the same as your Northern Beaches teals, SE Melbourne teals or inner-city Greens.

A significant mode of political attitudes in McPherson I would argue is a form of beach-toryism (present with retirees in detached low-density dwellings near the beach), and a tree-toryism (present in the Valleys). These are the type of voters that can swing between the LNP and being “small g” Greens voters when disaffected by the Coalition (much like your voters in Ryan). As Janelle Saffin’s performance has perhaps suggested in the adjacent NSW state division of Lismore, it is possible for Labor to wedge in the middle and capture older “small g” voters (disaffected by the Coalition) if they run an environmentally conscious candidate who is still able to resonate with older conservative voters and presenting themselves as a “safer” alternative to the Greens. My disclaimer to this would be that Lismore (and Tweed) is radically poorer (and older) than McPherson.

The main conclusion here that I would make is that there is a very broad mix of differing political attitudes and interests in McPherson. Each viable enough to direct significant votes to the Greens, Labor, LNP and ONP simultaneously. This will see McPherson increasingly deviate from the classic “Coalition vs Labor” contests. With votes fragmenting in all directions in McPherson, the party set to best benefit by in large is the party which still attracts the most first-preference votes. In this case this is the LNP.

On a four-party basis, Karen Andrews still outperformed the LNP in the Senate.

House 4CP: 46 LNP, 23 ALP, 17 GRN, 14 ON
Senate 4PP: 42 LNP, 24 ALP, 20 GRN, 15 ON

I imagine some Greens people in the area cross the border to help out in Richmond or whatever, which is of course not a bad option, but if the Gold Coast Greens branches wanted to set up a narrative, getting into the 2CP in McPherson would be helpful to that and it’s not that far off.

@insider thats because 2022 was foguht on climate change and the anti morrison vote. given the unpopularity of the current qld govt and history of voting conservative federally and the fact that the gold coast isnt inner sydney plus the fact those were fought against a sitting governemtn im saying slim chance. the next election wil be fought on cost of living so id wager most if not all of those teals are now vunerable especially with redistributions coming into play

After Macnamara, Richmond and possibly Wills, I can’t think of too many federal seats they can win soon.

Because of that, I personally like the idea of targeting previously weak areas like Western Sydney to get a narrative and more policy concessions from Labor (just shows they get treated seriously there too!). Gold Coast should be included.

I also think there may be a possible senate expansion (14/state) + double dissolution where the Greens could (hard I know) squeeze a 3rd senator in Victoria/Tasmania. Could be worth trying harder across the board then?

Sorry, I was talking about the Greens

The Greens could be able to win Higgins and maybe Moreton if they manage to leapfrog Labor in the 3CP just like in the Brisbane seats. Grayndler and Sydney would be winnable after Plibersek and Albanese retire.