ALP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Rob Mitchell, since 2010.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Northern Victoria. McEwen covers the northern fringe of Melbourne and rural areas further north, including Gisborne, Romsey, Macedon, Whittlesea, Strathewen, Kilmore, Diamond Creek, Woodend and Wallan.
Redistribution
A number of changes were made to McEwen’s borders. The seat lost Sunbury to Hawke, gained Woodend from Bendigo and gained Diamond Creek from Jagajaga. These changes increased the Labor margin from 5.0% to 5.3%.
McEwen was created when the Parliament was expanded in 1984, and was first won by Peter Cleeland of the ALP. The seat has traditionally been considered a marginal seat, although the Liberal Party held it continuously from 1996 until 2010.
Cleeland held on in 1987 before losing to Fran Bailey in 1990. Cleeland returned in 1993 before Bailey defeated him again in 1996. Bailey held on at every election from 1996 to 2010, but never with a great margin. She held on with a 2.2% margin in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 1.2% in 2001. She gained a 6.4% margin in 2004, but that melted away in 2007, when her margin was wiped out and the seat became the most marginal seat in the country.
Bailey led for most of the count after the 2007 election but her Labor opponent, Rob Mitchell, was declared the winner by six votes. A full recount gave Bailey a margin of twelve votes. This result was challenged in court and after seven months Bailey was declared the victor with a margin of twenty-seven votes.
In 2010, Bailey retired and Mitchell was comfortably elected.
Mitchell has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
McEwen is not quite so marginal as it was in 2007-2013, but could still be in play if Labor does poorly.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rob Mitchell | Labor | 37,911 | 39.4 | -2.8 | 39.8 |
| Phillip Fusco | Liberal | 33,162 | 34.5 | -1.3 | 35.0 |
| Neil Barker | Greens | 8,026 | 8.3 | -0.2 | 9.5 |
| Ronnie Graham | One Nation | 5,693 | 5.9 | +5.9 | 5.1 |
| Chris Hayman | United Australia Party | 3,016 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 3.3 |
| Deb Butler | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 3,878 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 3.2 |
| Ruth Parramore | Animal Justice | 2,890 | 3.0 | +0.2 | 2.5 |
| Robert James Hyndman | Independent | 1,552 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.4 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 5,334 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rob Mitchell | Labor | 52,892 | 55.0 | -1.0 | 55.3 |
| Phillip Fusco | Liberal | 43,236 | 45.0 | +1.0 | 44.7 |
Polling places in McEwen have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Macedon Ranges council area have been grouped as “West”, those in the Mitchell council area have been grouped as “North-East” and those in the Nillumbik and Whittlesea council areas have been grouped as “South-East”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.7% in the west to 57.7% in the north-east.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 6.7% in the north-east to 12% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 10.6 | 56.1 | 22,266 | 25.6 |
| West | 12.0 | 55.7 | 13,997 | 16.1 |
| North-East | 6.7 | 57.7 | 6,643 | 7.6 |
| Pre-poll | 7.7 | 54.0 | 28,297 | 32.5 |
| Other votes | 10.0 | 55.0 | 15,931 | 18.3 |
Election results in McEwen at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This electorate and Aston are the only two seats in Victoria with Dutton as leader that are at risk at falling. Depending on the retributions I don’t see the LNP winning seats here as the state Liberal opposition seem to be constantly dragging down their federal counterparts.
@bob still got 18 months til the election. Vic liberals will have gotten rid of pesutto by then. I’d wager. Aston should be largely the same byt mcewen will be chopped up and moved in the redistribution as it’s always one the last if not the last to be drawn and usually just ends up with what’s left. And in mine it becomes safe for labor
@nimalan from ballarat thread. im confident that should vic regain its 39th seat at the next determination that mcewen can shed the macedon ranges and possibly pickup murrindindi shire from indi in order to fix up any defeiciet. that would have as the great dividing ranges makes it unlikely geographically that it would lose any to casey or gippsland. maybe take in more of mitchel as well and then shed some of nillumbik depedning on numbers
Yeah @ John i am hoping Victoria regains its 39th seat or atleast in 2031 there needs to be an expansion of parliament since Australia’s population would have doubled since 1984. Higgins can be resurrected as well once there is an expansion of parliament.
@nimalan once there is an expansion it should be since the division around that area will be similar to higgins so i think tere will be a strong enough case for that yes. based on my maths i did a monh ago vics position has inproved since the redistribution and it may get that 39th seat back. wa may also get a 17th seat at the same time. nsw has deteriated slightly but it was already at the top end of the 46th seat so it will likely not lose another seat and qlds growth has barely moved so a 31st is unlikely as well.
When Victoria gets it 39th seat back, It will be north of the Yarra. I can see Higgins being reinstated at the same time and another seat in the east being abolished
The reason for this is that the redistribution seriously under catered for Gorton. On current enrollments it will be at its projected 2028 enrollments by April next year, and around 21,000 above its 2028 projection in 2028
In fact if the ABS figures had projected Gorton’s growth at what the old Gorton was doing at around 420 electors a month rather than 190 they could of stopped Melbourne from crossing the River and kept Higgins.
Gorton is currently doing around 510 a month
@moonlight if there was a new seat north of the Yarra how can Higgins be reinstated as they likely wouldn’t rename an existing seat. I can see a new seat being based around macedon ranges and sunbury .
@ Darth, I agree that the next seat will be north of the Yarra, but I think a seat that looks like Higgins would be recreated (meaning another in South of the Yarra would go)
essentially If the Higgins that went to Melbourne came back, add Malvern Glen Iris as abase i could see Hotham being eaten into via a number of seats
However if McNamara keeps going backwards you could add the Parts of the new Melbourne south of the Yarra into McNamara as that would put it just over quota
However I dont think the number I am using should be considered as gospel until after the next federal election as I dont know where the AEC is at with electoral roll verification