McEwen – Australia 2022

Labor hold with a swing in their favour.

More likely than not he will be the next speaker of the House of representatives after the election.

Probably agree with you Daniel, should Labor win the election then Rob Mitchell as 2nd Deputy Speaker will be well positioned to be appointed as House speaker. I believe former Labor Speaker Harry Jenkins Jr (who served during Kevin Rudd’s term as PM) was 2nd Deputy Speaker during the entire term of John Howard’s period as PM from 1996 to 2007.

Scott Morrison has visited here which is strange as I don’t really see this seat falling

Interesting one to watch, $12 odds on sportsbet for the coalition. One of the best odds this election I think

He is visiting probably to bolster the senate vote and stop a complete collapse of the vote here. He knows they won’t win this but they could stop a big swing.

Mitchell actually was nominated by Labor for speaker twice, once in 2013 when Brownlyn Bishop became speaker I believe and again last year against Wallace.

He is certainly extremely qualified to be the next speaker of the house and house Labor win I hope he is nominated again.

*should Labor win

I’ll also add this isn’t the same seat it was when Fran Bailey held it. It is less conservative than it was back then. Demographic shifts perhaps?

Daniel, I would say it is a combination of both demographic change (in the outer fringe parts of Melbourne like Mernda at the southern end of the district) and also successive redistributions which have shed more rural areas like Seymour into the neighboring seats of Indi and Nicholls (formerly Murray).

Agreed, Mernda/Wollert is urbanising and voting patterns are now similar to that of the Northern Suburbs of Melbourne. Similar trend can be seen around Wallan which is now really an outer northern suburb of Melbourne. Having said that Nillumbik and Macedon Ranges shire are quite affluent. This seat always gets affected by redistributions so it will be interesting what the next redistribution brings to this seat

Further to Morrison’s visit to McEwen – a strange choice it would seem outwardly – The Oz reports today that Libs polling detects weakness for Labor in Outer Melbourne and Outer Metro areas. In McEwen and Corangamite, it is the State government that is unpopular. Other seats listed include Gilmore, Lyons, Dobell, Hunter, Lingiari and Cowan. If they feel they can go on the offensive in those two Victorian seats it would suggest they are feeling comfortable about La Trobe, Flinders, Casey and Monash. It also raises a question about Dunkley or even Holt that are not mufh different.

Redistributed,
Do have a link to the article as I would like to have a read.

It could possibly signal a new political realignment happening where inner city affluent but socially progressive areas like Higgins/Macnamara/Kooyong etc. increasingly vote Labor/Greens while the poorer and socially conservative outer suburban areas increasingly vote for the Liberals. Perhaps voters in such seats find the rightward shift by the Liberal Party appealing, with a stronger focus on social issues rather economic issues. The goal for the Liberals may be to build a political base in the area with the aim of gaining this seat and other socially conservative mortgage belt outer suburban seats in future elections, not unlike how Lindsay and Hughes in NSW were once Labor strongholds but are now Liberal leaning.

Having read the Oz article, it seems to be a peculiar mixture of hyperbole mixed with kernels of truth. Lots of talk from ‘senior Liberals’ and ‘outer-suburban weakness’ but very light on details. The impression I get is that voters aren’t exactly impressed by either state Labor or with Albanese. That said, it’s a long way from general feelings of dissatisfaction to outright switching your vote. How else could national polling be reconciled? Of course, the national polling could be disastrously wrong for the second time. Either that, or Labor are gonna get huge swings in safe Liberal/ALP seats but do poorly in the marginals a la 1998.

Who knows? Maybe this barnstorming style of campaigning will yield dividends while Labor languishes with an overly cautious campaign (the type they seem to be sticking to). More likely imo, the Libs would be trying to build a base/limit the swing in these outer suburbs for a strong comeback and potential realignment next time.

@WoS
I really think that is a possibility that the Labor swings in the polling is coming from the safe seats, rather than marginals. Wouldn’t know if that was the feeling in 1998, I was a toddler.

Whilst the Vic state Libs are being criticised from a policy/ideological standpoint, they at least appear to be organised in contrast to NSW – hopefully this can be a saving grace.

How strong are the transport links to unify Lancefield, Romsey & Riddells Ck with Wallan, Wandong & Kilmore?

@BJA thanks for your comments. I was also very young at the time so I couldn’t say either. According to more seasoned observers than I, not many believed that Howard would actually lose because of his large majority and good incumbents in marginal seats (e.g. Fran Bailey in McEwen, Trish Draper in Makin, Danna Vale in Hughes etc).

1998 is unique in that Howard lost 49-51 and yet held on, which is the lowest 2PP vote for a winning party. Similarly, I believe Hawke could have theoretically held on in 1987 with a vote as low as 48-52 (I don’t have access to the data on hand, but I’m pretty sure that’s right).While Morrison would be seeking to emulate these examples, he doesn’t have the same aforementioned advantages.

I do agree that much of what’s driving the national swing is emanating from WA and from safe seats. That said, an 8 – 10 point lead is not close and so I find it difficult to imagine the marginals withstanding the tide.

If polling is way out in Accuracy I Think we would find that polling organisations would have pulled out a political polling.. Political polling is conducted predominantly as advertising for commercial polling.
Wrong results lead to a decline in commercial polling which is the bread and butter of polling organisations.

All signs are that Morrison’s government is facing a backlash in Victoria and the notion that outer suburban areas are going to be an exception sounds like the usual wishcasting from the Australian. I have no doubt that Andrews’ government is being blamed to an extent but they are certainly not sparing the federal government from the baseball bats.

As for realignment, the most clear indication to me would be to view which seats swung towards and away from the Coalition in 2019, mimicking the global pattern of urban areas trending to the left and regional towards the right. McEwen swung in line with the national trend (+1 Coalition) and Corangamite against the trend (+1 ALP). They don’t strike me as seats that are particularly likely to go towards the Coalition against a statewide or national swing towards the ALP.

It’s worth noting that both major parties have pledged a major infrastructure project here (new Beveridge Interchange).

Obviously it could simply be “it’s just needed regardless of seat”…..but I guess there’s at least something to indicate that maybe that McEwen talk has some sort of merit.

With the interest rate rise the LNP can forget a seat like this

I don’t think they ever really had a chance, always thought it was a strange target with its decent Labor margin.

1998 was the only example of a party winning well 51/49v and losing. There are other examples 1954… 1961… 1969.and 1987 where this happens but the margin was less than 1% what I would consider down the wire. Last time the vote was 52/48 in favour of the libs. I think this is wrong and an adjustment mechanism put in place

I might be naive, but I don’t get the repeated talk in the media about the infrastructure spend here and the suggestion that the Libs must therefore have McEwen on a target list. It’s quite a big seat. Is anyone really going to change their vote because a new transport interchange, however humongous, is going to be built in one part of it?

Apparently the AFR have reported liberals are boosting resources in this seat but Labor expect to retain it, as per them cost of living and anger at scott morrison are registering as strongly here as anywhere else.

You can see what the Liberals were going for here. There has been a swing to them, driven mostly by big swings in the growth areas around Mernda, Doreen, and Wallan (which seems a common pattern in the outer northern and western suburbs)

Swings to the Liberals have come in the outer suburban Labor strongholds in Victoria, but nowhere near enough to threaten any seat. Meanwhile, in the inner urban heartlands the Liberals have received a shellacking. At least 4 seats lost, up to potentially 6. In the latter case, their only seats in Melbourne will be on the outer southeastern fringe.

Kos Samaras seems to have it broadly on the money. The Liberals spent too much time talking to their own frustrated constituents in campaigning against Dan and lockdowns and did not listen to the crucial median voters.

Labor have a problem here as if they fair poorly in Victoria this electorate could be lost, the liberals have being slightly improving each time , definitely a seat to watch for 2025.

I did suspect that we could see a swing to the Libs in electorates like McEwen and Hawke even if Labor won big and that’s what happened. Probably a bit early to start speculating but I think this would be one of the first seats to fall in the next election in 2025 with continuing demographic trends working against Labor.

Adda, it might be too early to make those sorts of assessments. We could be in the middle of a longer-term genuine realignment that just hasn’t been completed yet.

For McEwen specifically, this usually gets knocked around at redistributions so it’s difficult to make any predictions for 2025…if Victoria loses a seat, we could see McEwen undergo significant change once again.

I’m not commenting on future elections or asserting that this seat will be in Labor hands forever. I’m talking about this election specifically, where it is quite clear the median voter wasn’t into the anti-Dan campaigning and the strategy comprehensively failed. Frustration over lockdowns might have had appeal to a few in the outer suburbs but the swings can also be explained as part of a long-term realignment, as has been discussed.

I could see Peter Dutton appealing to an electorate like this like Scott Morrison did.

@Bob, this area is not really White Working class. Macedon Ranges and Nilumbik Shire are quite affluent and progressive a lot of this seat is actually like Monbulk. The Growth areas such as Wallan, Donnybrook, Beveridge are quite culturally diverse. At a state election Labor did quite well here. I think the lockdown left some anger which explained swing to the Libs but by the time of the state election a lot of this anger faded like it did around Pakenham etc.

@Nimalan yeah i agree, while demographics are not particularly strong for labor, duttons unpopularity in victoria, coupled with urbanisation and increasing cultural diversity will probably assist labor in this seat. i also thought blair could be the best bet at a coalition pickup in qld but there is so much development happening which will continue to outweigh the liberals strength in rural areas north and west of ipswich. if springfield is anything to go by, new developments in the ipswich region lean quite strongly to labor and should assist them in future elections. lyons is perhaps the best chance of a pickup imo due to an aging, largely anglo population. i see the liberal party today preselected susie bowers to run for the seat in 2025 which suggests that they too are hopeful of a pickup. the liberal party could also pick up some seats in western australia if the tides swing there way. however, the swing was so great last election that some marginal liberal/labor seats now sit on relatively large labor margins that will be difficult to overturn. tangney has the smallest margin but has a popular local member in sam lim and demographics here are not favourable to dutton, with a large chinese diaspora. there might be a few others that i can’t think of at the moment.

on the flip side, i can see labor being competitive/winning several liberal seats: deakin, menzies, monash, casey, banks, sturt, petrie, longman, bonner, leichhardt, forde etc. they could also gain brisbane if the greens flop. a teal could also win bradfield.

two years is a long time in politics, but it appears that the direction of the liberals makes them more vulnerable to losses than it does competitive in several key seats.

Morrison “appealing” here is absolutely nonsense. It was the anti-dan factor. Libs couldn’t even win here in 2013.

This seat has trended away from the Libs ever since Fran Bailey left the seat + this seats boundaries is a few points more friendly to Labor on these boundaries than back then.

@ Louis,
I do believe this seat like Daniel T and you mentioned is trending longer term to Labor with both the urbanization of the seat and also a growth in tree changers with remote working etc. I would point to the demographics of Donnybrook which fast growing suburb. The largest religion is Sikhism. The amount of people who practice an non Christian religion is 39.4% which exceeds the Christian population at only 30%. It is amazing to think there maybe as many people who celebrate Diwali as Christmas. A Majority of people speak a language other than English at home in Donnybrook. I believe this trend will soon extend along the Hume Highway corridor with all the new housing estates going up. The state seat of Yan Yean will also i think longer term become a safe Labor seat with all the urbanization.

With respect to Blair, i think they have one shot to win it 2025 and if they dont win they can forget about it. There is significant population growth in the Ripley valley which would force it to shed rural areas such as Kilcoy. If the suburb of Springfield Lakes in neighboring Oxley but in the same LGA then the demographic freight train to hit Libs on its way just need maybe half a decade more to reach the destination. If we look at Springfield Lakes, it is quite diverse 8.1% Hindu a larger % of people speak a language other than English at home than the Greater Brisbane , has a younger millennial population.

Lyons, is the most mono cultural seat in the nation and in 50 years will likely still have the same demographics.

I agree that anti-lockdown and anti-Dan factors made this seat more marginal in 2022. There was a combined 16% primary vote for anti-lockdown, anti-vax, anti-Dan parties in 2022. These factors will disappate by 2025 and most likely, the seat will become less rural/agricultural and more a magnet for tree changers and suburbanites due to suburban sprawl.

Good point about Blair, @Nimalan. Demographic change will kill the LNP’s chances there in the not-too-distant future. Spring Mountain and parts of Springfield Lakes are already in Blair.

In 2013, McEwen was around 2% more pro-Labor than it is now. Liberals would have won McEwen on these boundaries in 2013.

The redistribution before 2013 boosted Labor’s position significantly, so Liberals would have had quite a comfortable victory on the pre-2013 boundaries.

It’s a seat that can get knocked around heavily at redistributions, so anyone saying the Liberals will “never win again” is being a bit silly. Especially with a seat being abolished in Victoria this time, the boundaries could end up looking extremely different going into 2025.

@ Nicholas,
Thank you for bringing Spring Mountain to my attention. I have just looked at the demographics there. It literally did not exist in 2016 and no stats for it then. Once you see at the demographics of it you cannot unsee it. If i was a Liberal strategist it would scare the living daylights out of me especially if this trend will continue with new suburbs developed that are yet to be developed in the Ripley Valley. Longer term if the rise of growth areas in parts of Forde, Canning (such as Byford) may mean those seats could slip from the Libs. Urbanisation has could Pearce to now be entirely Urban previously it included Wheatbelt townships McEwen has shrank geographically and the same could happen in Blair with the Somerset Region removed.

https://abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/SAL32624: Spring Mountain Demographics

The last two elections there has been a swing to the LNP in this electorate. Its worth noting that retributions can quite radically change this electorate & on these boundaries would have been picked up by the LNP in 2013. Labor will definitely need to put resources & effort in here to hold on.

@ Mark Mulcair
Apologies i did not mean to sound like i was to predicting that the Libs will never win McEwen again even if it came may have come across that way. Lets just hold the thought about redistribution for a second and i will revisit that in a second. I stated the increased urbanisation along the Northern Growth Corridor, increasingly being an extension of Labor’s northern suburbs heartland along with education and affluence of Nilumbik and Macedon Ranges shires not being conducive to the current populist direction of the Libs. With respect to the Libs winning on these current boundaries in 2013, the caveat i would add to that is areas such as Mernda, Donnybrook, Wollert, Beveridge there has been a significant population increase in the decade (in some cases by a factor of 4) since then so i feel the bar on the current boundaries is higher and if for argument’s sake these boundaries still existed in 2025 then the Libs will need to significantly over perform their 2013 result to win this seat.

You are 100% correct that this seat can be knocked about in redistributions including dramatically and i did not factor that in my analysis so that is an omission on my part so if Victoria as expected loses a seat and this seat gets pulled into more rural areas such as the Upper Yarra or Murrindindi it will certainly be winnable for the Libs once again. However, that in itself is telling IMHO that Libs would need significant rural areas to win this seat especially areas that are not growing in population similar to what i said about Lyons. Anyway i value your contribution to i can keen to hear your thoughts.

@Nimalan the liberals should also be pretty scared about longman for the same reasons: new developments are popping up literally everywhere, especially in the pocket between dakabin and caboolture north. i live in deception bay (in neighbouring petrie) and it’s kinda incredible to see so many new estates and suburbs emerging that didn’t even exist 3 years ago. they’re definitely not as diverse as springfield and springfield heights but anecdotally they are a lot more diverse than the established areas around caboolture, burpengary and bribie island. these new estates mainly consist of young families which probably lean towards labor. petrie is also similar however newport (probably the largest development) has lots of large two-story houses on canals which will probably continue to vote liberal. cape stone in mango hill has a large indian population and lots of townhouses and apartments so it’ll be interesting to see how mango hill shifts in future elections.

This redistribution is could well see the southern part of McEwan moved more into the city and possibly around 4900 electors around Woodend moved into Bendigo

I believe that McEwan will more north as well and thus be a little less safer for Labor’s Rob Mitchell

@ Louis
Interesting point about Mango Hill i actually did not know much about that area. It is actually around 11% Indian much higher than greater Brisbane, QLD and Australian average. I still think Dutton will have a hometown advantage in the Moreton Bay region and the diversification may take sometime for it to have a meaningful impact on voting trends

This is one division I’m looking at serious renovations. It’s effectively parts of four different lgas. Will be looking at moving it either east or west

This electorate definitely needs a remodel.

This seat now sits slightly below the Labor’s statewide 2PP they achieved at the 2022 federal election (McEwen 53.3 vs Victoria 54.8. The Labor lean relative to the rest of the state seems to have diminished compared to after the 2010 redistribution (4 points above the statewide 2PP) and Labor’s 2016 result here (7 points above). The redistribution is obviously a big unknown but at least on the current boundaries, I would think this will be a key target for the Liberal party given the diminishing pro-Labor lean here.

@ GPPS, i would say we need to see what the redistribution brings before making any predictions. According to Ben’s analysis prior to the election last year it was actually one of the seats trending Labor see link below. The 2016 result was inflated for Labor due to a comical Liberal candidate who actually won the Mal award on the Chaser. There was an anti-lockdown backlash here last time but on the current boundaries the seat is actually urbanising, becoming more diverse and an extension of the Northern Suburbs heartland for Labor.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47432

Fair points @Nimalan. The only thing I would say is that it seems the former Liberal member, Fran Bailey, commanded a strong personal vote, which would have suppressed Labor support in the electorate until she retired in 2010, and on her retirement, the seat jumped 30 places towards Labor in terms of relative 2PP, according to Ben’s analysis you linked. So the seat might appear to be trending Labor over the last decade, but that could be seen more as a correction or reset towards the “mean” where the seat used to sit before Fran Bailey’s tenure.

If you look at the two-party-preferred graph above in Ben’s seat profile, it shows that the seat clung closely to Labor’s 2PP in Victoria, until 1993 to 2010 when a large gap opened with the seat developing a pro-Liberal lean until Bailey’s retirement in 2010 when the seat then returned to sitting around Labor’s 2PP result in Victoria.

mcewen could get remodeled and that would make this whole conversion muted