Maribyrnong – Australia 2022

Why does labor do so poorly in Essendon?

Essendon and Strathmore are two of the most affluent parts of the north-western suburbs.

In fact, most of the current Maribyrnong is relatively ‘Liberal’ compared to the surrounding seats. Hence its current margin is quite a bit softer for Labor than Calwell, Gorton, Fraser, etc.

Is Ascot Vale that different to Essendon/Moonee Ponds? I know Flemington/Kensington has a lot of Public Housing and would have historically been inner city working class suburbs but not exact sure about Ascot Vale.

Ascot Vale has a fair bit of public housing too.

So it’s more like Flemington in that it was a traditionally less-desirable area that’s now becoming more trendy and affluent….but in a ‘Green’ way rather than a ‘Liberal’ way.

Cool thanks Mark for the clarification.

Ben, following the 2017-18 redistribution, you helped out with some indications of the change in vote that might be needed for the Greens to overtake the Liberals for second place in Maribyrnong. How do the new “platypus” shape boundaries of the 2021-22 Maribyrnong affect that calculus (given that new territory includes the Greenish Kensington and the traditionally Labor Gladstone Park & Tullamarine)?

I can’t remember exactly what I did, but I think the distribution of preferences means you can do an estimate of 3PP. Not a high priority but I assume it will be slightly easier for the Greens with the increased primary vote.

I feel at the next redistribution, the Liberals will push for this seat to shed the areas around Kensington and Ascot Vale and into Keilor and Taylors Lakes. This might allow to them to potentially gain a seat in Melbourne’s west, first time since the 1970s.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/maribyrnong2022/comment-page-1#comment-756584

If indeed (as is highly likely) Victoria looses a seat in the next redistribution, Maribyrnong is more likely to be pushed northward rather than westward because the seat that goes is likely to be in the east and therefore the outer suburban seats will be shifting east and potentially draw the inner suburban seats northward, .

The Liberals might have won Maribyrnong in 1990 on the 1984 boundaries but Victoria lost a seat (its 39th) in the 1988 determination and that drove the seat into St Albans and increased the ALP margin by about 0.2% more than the ALP`s winning margin in 1990.

The current size of Parliament makes it hard to draw a seat the Liberal seat can win in north and or west of the Yarra in metro Melbourne.

Unlikely, as Bill Shorten would have a personal vote so I would doubt him loosing his seat, however when he retires it could come into play.

Possible upset? Any declared Independents?

An upset is unlikely, @Julie . For that to happen, the Liberal would need to fall into third place, and Labor be down to near 40% or lower. Both fairly tall orders.

The only way I realistically see the Greens taking the seat this year is if the Liberals end up running dead in the seat (because, say, they pick a candidate and then the candidate says something that completely destroys their chances), and Shorten gets a personal swing against him at the same time (or he decides to retire at the last minute). With the current polling numbers, it’s more likely that Shorten will win on primary votes, or be so close that mere leakage from any of the minor parties would be enough to get him over the line.

Long-term, it’s definitely a seat the Greens should put effort into, but this year will not be their year in Maribyrnong.

The issue here is that the a lot of this seat is middle class suburbia its really only a small part of the seat which is inner city. The Libs may have long term interest in this seat in case there is a future redistribution that removes Gladstone Park/Tullamarine and long with Flemington and moves it into Keilor/Taylors Lakes etc

This seat always seems to attract a very visible campaign considering it’s fairly-safe status.

Driving in from the airport, both Shorten and D’Silva have large prominent billboards scattered all along the freeway, and yesterday there was a small army of D’Silva supporters handing out material at Moonee Ponds Shopping Centre.

I note that a lot of Shorten’s campaign material this time around is focussing on being MP for Maribyrnong (“I’m a local and I heart this community” stuff) instead of his shadow ministerial roles.

@Nimalan: Ascot Vale is a traditional working class area. It has a large low rise public housing estate, which is unfortunately being demolished. The western fringe of the suburb, along the Maribyrnong River is quite wealthy these days. Some homes along the river even have their own private boat moorings. Some of the streets in the east of the suburb, around the Essendon Hockey Club, are quite affluent as well. There are some big homes along Ormond Road that have views looking north to Moonee Valley Racecourse.

@ Kaniel, i always presumed Ascot Vale was similar to Moonee Ponds and Essendon and the suburbs was closely connected connected to those suburbs until Mark M clarified for me above. Essendon has always been affluent and home to quite a few private schools. Flemington/North Melbourne was historically working class with saleyards and the meat packing industry being once a major part of the area.

@Nimalan: Essendon definitely has affluent pockets. Aberfeldie is upper middle class. It’s home to large federation homes, and mansions both old, and new. It costs a fortune to live along the Boulevard over looking the Maribyrnong. The polling station in Aberfeldie is Labor, whereas the Liberals do better north of Buckley Street in Essendon. Essendon does have working class pockets. There is a sizable Indian community in Essendon. Essendon has always been home to Italians, Poles, and Ukrainians.

Park Street Moonee Ponds is very affluent. The western part of the street resembles parts of Hawthorn, with flashy mansions (for people with new money) overlooking a park. The eastern part of the street is more like Camberwell, Eaglemont, and Canterbury with old style federation homes. Much of Moonee Ponds is still working class, especially around Elizabeth Street, and Byron Street. The upper crust nature of Moonee Ponds is overrated. It is home to many white collar workers. It’s similar to Rosanna, parts of Heidelberg, and Ivanhoe west. There is a large Italian community in Moonee Ponds.

I know these areas well as they are around the corner from my part of Brunswick.

As at the last election, the areas redistributed from Melbourne saw big swings from the Greens to Labor.

Another seat that was a bit of a microcosm of the election overall; the more Liberal and inner areas swung to Labor whereas the traditionally Labor-leaning outer areas went the other way.

With the exception of the Kensington/Flemington/Ascot Vale area, the seat is now quite homogenous politically, as both sides have converged to be around 55-60% Labor.

Bill shorten is retiring, The Libs should get a decent swing but I don’t think they will win obviously.

Not surprised about it. I think he was considered highly likely to retire next election. I’m curious about Dreyfus and Collins who are tipped to retire, plus any backbenchers who plan to retire.

My prediction for now is a Labor retain but in the marginal category. If the Liberals have a star candidate, it could be closer. But if Kensington is still in after the redistribution, then it’s guaranteed Labor.

First reaction is Greens don’t have enough to work with compared to Cooper, Wills or even Fraser. Parts of this seat are former Bandt territory and plenty of renter/share house voters, and Muslim voters in the outer reaches. But still not seeing Greens making much of Shorten’s retirement.

Labor hold however an above average swing to LNP and Greens.

@ John
Actually not may Muslims in the outer reaches the only Muslims are in the Inner City Housing Commision and they are Horn of Africa Muslims. It is actually the most Catholic seat in the country and Italians are the main CALD community apart from that not diverse.

Booths in suburbs like Essendon and Niddrie should be more competitive now (like how the state seat of Niddrie is marginal) with Bill Shorten retiring.

you cant tell me the election is still gonna be in may next year with all these retirements geez how dumba re people

@John I agree, I think it’ll be in summer, probably around January-February.

Anyway, are there any other MPs anyone thinks will retire at the next election (federal or state)? I’m curious to know what everyone thinks on this.

I reckon there’ll be another Labor MP retire in at least one state or territory.

@np there has never been a january-february election and i doubt that will change it will be in december april or may. my money is still on december. in regards to retirements i think labor will try and keep the current team but i think the there will be an en masse retirement at the next election

an early election is very unlikely to improve their position so i doubt they’re going for that. chalmers has signalled his intention to deliver at least one more budget before the next election, so that’s pretty much their last chance for a hail mary to turn things around. and of course the pigs prefer to have new troughs lined up and ready to feed from before they move on from parliament anyway, like bill has.

As for Maribyrnong, Labor retain but I wouldn’t be surprised to see even a double digit swing PV against the new candidate, bleeding votes out from both flanks.

no way or greens can win this labors primary is too strong for the greens and the combined left vote easily makes it a retain i reckon a 5% swing on 2pp

I expect a slight swing to the Libs as Bill Shorten retires but mainly correction votes around upper middle class Essendon given its large number of private schools and good homes (but the area will remain overall competitive as seen on state levels) and a gradual Libs inroads in the large Italian Community in Keilor but otherwise the Working Class North and progressive suburbs (south of Holmes Road) will keep Labor retaining comfortably.

Thought about this more and I guess an early election makes sense if they’re expecting the next set of economic figures to be as miserable if not worse than the ones Chalmers just gave us. But that’s obviously a move made out of desperation more than anything else.

@furtive thats whats got me saying too as far as i can see it he has 2 options
1. go early before things get worse
or
2. go as late as possible in the hopes things get better

if he went early hed still win but in minority but if he waits til the last possible moment he may well lose the election altogether. other thins that could make it worse is if over summer the eastern states particuarly nsw and vic experience rolling blackouts further damaging his claim of clean reliable cheap electricity. in my opinion the only thing thats gonna stop dutton becoming pm at the next election is those teal seats because is he had those id be betting hed win.

@John even though there’s never been a federal election in January or February, there’s a first time for almost everything.

@NP no sane govt would go to an election during the holidays he might as well just resign as pm if he does that

@john /np: the next fed election is due late may 2025… would expect it be close to then. An early election could well become an issue for any govt. Of course the sensible solution is to have fixed 4 year terms which happen every where else in Australia. Just think there would not have been 23 years of the liberals prior to 1972.

@mick you mean besides tasmania. unfortunately at a state level it by an act of parliament wheres nationally it requires a change to the constitution

i think shorten is getting out with a golden parachute before the preverbial sh2t hits the fan after the next election with minority govt. ironically the labor govt is gonna punced at the next election and all the leadership hopefuls after albo are getting themselves in deep sh9t before they are even leader expect a coalition govt 2028-2037

This seat will always stay firmly Labor IMO. The Libs do horribly in the southern part of the electorate and they don’t have enough good booths to counteract the 70% TPP Labor can get in the southern part. The Greens do horribly in the northern part so they’ll struggle to outpoll Labor. And unlike a lot of the western seats, Maribyrnong isn’t really trending towards the right. Adjusted for current boundaries it’s only really 1% more Lib than in 2007.

The new boundaries that include Oak Park will help Labor.

@Drake I agree it would take a big landslide (like the 2011 NSW state election) for the Liberals to win Maribyrnong (they would have to get at least 55-60% TPP in Essendon, Keilor, Niddrie and the surrounding suburbs and then get 35-40% TPP in the parts they struggle in).

Its been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald Bill Shorten likely will be replaced in the seat of Maribyrnong by United Workers Union official Jo Briskey. Interestingly Briskey contested Brisbane federal seat of Bonner for Labor in 2019.

I’m not accross the factions in Victoria, but surely putting an UWU official wouldn’t be likely in a seat held by Shorten (AWU right faction).

@AA the full context that was missed is:

” … Shorten’s safe seat is likely to go to the Left in a deal giving the Right Brendan O’Connor’s seat of Gorton. Shorten, elected in 2007, is likely to be replaced in Maribyrnong by United Workers Union official Jo Briskey, though new names could emerge.”

Don’t think they’ll win it but could see the Libs giving this a crack with a view to winning Niddrie at the next state election.

Ben Carroll is fairly popular in Niddrie, it will be very hard to unseat him.

Regarding the next election, it’s a firm Labor hold. The strong Liberal showing in Essendon is balanced out by the strong Greens showing in Kensington. The Labor primary vote will dip as Shorten’s personal vote will be gone. I read that because of the timing, there won’t be a by-election.

I thought he’d be in parliament for several more terms. Based on what he said on election night 2019, he gave off such vibes. He’ll be the vice chancellor of Uni of Canberra. Julie Bishop is nearby as the chancellor of ANU.

@Ian it’s very possible he could lose given how unpopular the government is in Victoria.

@ Ian
I think Niddrie is possibly in play due to it being middle class and much less diverse than other Western Suburbs. also delay in Airport rail will hurt Labor here. however, I think Greenvale is less likely because Muslim voters will move to socialist or Greens.

AA.. I live in nsw nor Victoria but often there are cross factional deals…. when shorten was to retire his seat would be filled by a
left woman ? Such deals are a good thing as long as it is a way of ensuring the best most talented people are in parliament so they can further labour’s cause

There are rumours that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will transfer here as Higgins is being abolished. It’d be a bit of a Kristina Keneally move, but the economic and ethnic disparity isn’t quite as stark as that one was.