ALP 0.2%
Incumbent MP
Susan Templeman, since 2016.
Geography
Macquarie covers the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury council areas, including the towns of Katoomba, Blaxland, Wentworth Falls, Lawson, Richmond, Windsor and Kurrajong.
History
Macquarie is a federation seat, and has always sat to the west of Sydney and covered the Blue Mountains, although its boundaries have shifted. It has tended to be a marginal seat, although in recent decades it has not always swung with the national trend.
The seat was first won by the Free Trade party in 1901, and they held it for two terms before Ernest Carr won it in 1906 for Labor. Carr held the seat until 1917, when he was defeated for reelection after leaving the ALP in late 1916 to join the Nationalist Party. The ALP held the seat again from 1917 until 1922, when the Nationalist Party won back the seat. Arthur Manning was reelected in 1925 against future Prime Minister Ben Chifley, who defeated Manning on a second attempt in 1928.
Chifley held the seat for two terms before losing to John Lawson of the United Australia Party in 1931. Lawson was reelected in 1934 and 1937 before Chifley defeated him in 1940. Chifley went on to serve as a senior Minister under John Curtin and became Prime Minister in 1945. He lost the Prime Ministership in 1949, then led his party in Opposition. He was reelected in Macquarie at the 1951 double dissolution before dying a few weeks later.
The seat was won in 1951 by Anthony Luchetti, a longstanding Labor activist in Macquarie. Luchetti had been Chifley’s campaign manager during his first stint in Macquarie in the 1920s, but stood as a Lang Labor candidate at the 1931 election. The split Labor vote saw the UAP win the seat in a slim margin. Luchetti held the seat from 1951 until his retirement in 1975.
The Liberal Party won the seat in 1975 in the person of Reg Gillard, who was defeated by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1980. The 1984 redistribution saw Free move to the new seat of Lindsay, and the Liberal Party’s Alasdair Webster won Macquarie.
Webster lost the seat in 1993 to Maggie Deahm of the ALP, who lost the seat herself in 1996 to Kerry Bartlett. Bartlett made the seat fairly safe over the next decade before the 2007 redistribution saw Bartlett defeated by the long-serving state MP and Minister Bob Debus. Debus went straight into Kevin Rudd’s ministry as Minister for Home Affairs. Debus resigned from the ministry in June 2009 in anticipation of his retirement from politics at the next election.
At the 2010 election the seat’s boundaries were shifted back to the boundaries in 2004. Louise Markus, who held Greenway in 2007 when it covered Hawkesbury council, chose to run for Macquarie instead, and won the seat with a 1.3% margin. Markus was re-elected in 2010 and 2013.
Markus lost in 2016 to Labor’s Susan Templeman. Templeman was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Macquarie is Labor’s most marginal seat and is far from safe.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sarah Richards | Liberal | 43,487 | 44.9 | +6.6 |
| Susan Templeman | Labor | 37,106 | 38.3 | +2.8 |
| Kingsley Liu | Greens | 8,870 | 9.1 | -2.1 |
| Tony Bryan Pettitt | United Australia Party | 3,877 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Greg Keightley | Animal Justice | 3,611 | 3.7 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 4,338 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Susan Templeman | Labor | 48,661 | 50.2 | -2.0 |
| Sarah Richards | Liberal | 48,290 | 49.8 | +2.0 |
Booths have been divided into three parts. The Macquarie electorate is clearly divided between the Hawkesbury and the Blue Mountains. There is also clear divisions between the upper and lower mountains.
There is a tremendous variance in the vote between the three areas. Labor’s two-party-preferred majority was just 56% in the lower Blue Mountains and over 70% in the upper Blue Mountains, while the Liberal Party almost reached 64% in the Hawkesbury.
The Greens vote varied enormously, ranging from 4.6% in the Hawkesbury to 17% in the upper mountains.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Hawkesbury | 4.6 | 36.1 | 26,362 | 27.2 |
| Lower Mountains | 10.1 | 56.1 | 17,421 | 18.0 |
| Upper Mountains | 17.0 | 70.2 | 13,963 | 14.4 |
| Pre-poll | 8.6 | 50.5 | 29,725 | 30.7 |
| Other votes | 10.4 | 48.1 | 9,480 | 9.8 |
Election results in Macquarie at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
With the overall expectation or a swing to the liberals in NSW and I’m assuming the fact the liberals are running the same candidate of Sarah Richards should help push them over the line in this seat with swings in the outer suburban areas near and around Windsor providing the appropriate swing to win it.
This would have to be the most polarised seat in Australia, ? Labor would surely have lost this seat without Templeman. The result was fascinating in 2019 Maquarie polarised even more !
Anecdotally Templeman makes a superhuman effort in the mountains, & the results would testify to that. However the intensity of the swing in the Hawkebury end would almost point to the opposite effect there
In the next redistribution my instinct is that this electorate will be carved up radically. Say like the upper mountains going into Calare
. My feeling is that as there is no margin to defend, Templeman will be defeated this time. Lib gain
Because of the size of the margin it would be safe to say it swings and also agreed the next redistribution set for the 2025 election will have the new growth parts of north west Sydney and beyond come into consideration with a lot of the aspects.
The Seat is indeed extremely polarised. It seems the Blue Mountains is getting stronger for Labor both at a state level and Federal level. Templeman can survive if she gets a further swing in the mountains which can offset a negative swing in the Hawkesbury. During the Howard era, this was a safe Liberal seat on these boundaries and going into 2010 election, Labor had a only 0.3% notional margin, despite 2007 being a good year for Labor in NSW. The fact that Labor has a 0.2% today based on 2019 results shows the increasingly progressive lean of the Upper Mountains relative to the rest of the state.
Winediamond, why do you think this seat will get chopped up?
I don’t think they would change Macquarie unless there is a significant change in these two areas.
Sydney is surrounded by physical boundaries that are hard to cross and the borders around the outside of Macquarie are one of those. Generally they only draw electorates crossing between Sydney and non-Sydney in the Macarthur area or on the Shire-Wollongong border. We saw in 2006 that they had to be radical when they changed Macquarie, then they changed it right back. The population growth in the north-west is mostly happening outside Macquarie and I think the knock-on effects will move in the other direction.
none of the Blue Mountains should be in Calare…. it has either been Orange and other towns like Cowra or Bathurst, Lithgow and Orange and the areas between them. The most common boundaries have been the later. since 1977. Macquarie was once bathurst, Lithgow, the Blue mountaIns and Penrith……. when Chifley was the mp…… now with Penriths growth and Calare including Bathurst and lithgow … the more likely Boundaries are the Blue Mountains and the Hawkesbury River area.
Ben Raue
Firstly i don’t disagree with anything you have said.
Maquarie needs 10000 voters for quota. With its anaemic growth probably ought to be 15000.
The AEC will have to decide which seat to draw from. Instinctively i sense that they will take the easy option of leaving Lindsay largely intact. Calare & Mitchell will be moved heaps anyway. Really big adjustments. Huge numbers coming from & through Hunter into Calare.
The Nats have suggested splitting the mountains a few times, & desire to enlarge their constituency.
Lastly the seat is two very different areas essentially, so there really isn’t any integrity in the seat in the first place. As you point out in 2006 they made big changes. The difference now is that there are big increases in population in the adjoining seats. A push factor if you like.
Ben you may easily be proven right by things going in an entirely different direction. However this time the AEC will have to address their multitude of ( F*#@) Stuff ups like NORTH Coast, Hunter region,Hume, illawarra, Macarthur etc.
In conclusion id say i am so glad it’s not me having to sort out their messes, confusion, & incompetence ! They make politicians look good !! Thats so bad…..!
cheers WD
WD, if the numbers stay roughly how they are, I assume the redistribution will push all the Sydney seats ‘outwards’ through Macarthur. In that case, a simple gain of the northern Hawkesbury part of Greenway would probably be all that is needed for Macquarie. On paper, this would be good for the Liberals going forward, but will depend on what 2022 brings.
They did basically what you suggested in 2006 and it made a mess of surrounding seats. I don’t think they’ll go that route again unless they absolutely have to.
Mark Mulcair
Yes i don’t disagree but “that won’t be the only game in town”. You have other movements from the north shore & Hunter Illawarra etc that are a mess. Im fascinated to see what they do with Parramatta for example.
I just think it might be enticing to have another E-W type ” shock absorber” as it were. Might only last one cycle though.
after all when we look at Hume how can we dismiss any possibility !??. Laugh that off !
AS ALWAYS don’t know how you do what you do. St PETER must be waiting with a sainthood for you mate !
cheers WD
Mark Mulcair
Another thing if “In that case, a simple gain of the northern Hawkesbury part of Greenway would probably be all that is needed for Macquarie.” Why wouldn’t that be Greenway, & or Mitchell? . Doesn’t that screw up Richmond Rd & & all the LGA boundaries. We are then left with 4-5 LGAs in one electorate. Even the AEC might be embarrassed or shamed by that ?
Mick
I think I’ve responded vicariously in other posts to your views. However unless Gwydir is reinstated, its likely that Maquarie, or Mcarthur will become largely rural.
Take all of Greater Sydney excluding the Central Coast, but including Hawkesbury, Blue Mountains, and Wollondilly.
Assuming NSW has 47 seats, data from the NSW redistribution shows that this region had around 26.93 quotas last year, and the projected data for 2023 shows virtually no overall change. (Still 26.93 to the nearest two decimal places!)
So there’s almost exactly enough room for 27 seats. If the redistribution respects these boundaries, Hume will no longer extend into Wollondilly and Camden. Hawkesbury and Blue Mountains can remain united in Macquarie.
But given this, it’s also possible that Blue Mountains could be transferred to Calare, with Wollondilly remaining in Hume.
And I suppose there’s also some wriggle room if the Committee has an appetite for resurrecting a trans-Sutherland-Wollongong Cunningham.
Greenway doesn’t contain any of the Hawkesbury, and I don’t understand why transferring part of Greenway to Macquarie is the first thought. The fix for Macquarie’s enrolment deficiency is for it to gain the Penrith suburbs west of the Nepean River.
They will start off by winning Macquarie. That is the easy path for the Liberal party to win the next election.
Surprised the Greens don’t do better in the Blue Mountains. Can anyone knowledgable weigh in on why?
In terms of redistributions I think the lower mountains are both too inseparable from the upper mountains, and also too “Sydney” for a Calare configuration that takes in the mountains. Nicholas Weston’s Penrith solution seems ideal.
On identity, being on the receiving end of the “Sydney” lockdowns will hurt Liberals in the mountains but Labor seems to already have that area cornered.
I have this as a Liberal gain with growth in the Hawkesbury. Templeman will put up a fight but even a tiny swing sees her off.
This is a must win now for the Liberals. If they don’t win this seat then they lose the election to Labor due to the inevitable losses in Victoria and WA and possibly with the loss of Boothby. They must gain seats in NSW and QLD to offset the losses and if this doesn’t change hands nor will Hunter,Paterson,Shortland or Eden Monaro.
The Greens lost a bunch of voters last election (Animal Justice?) and the AJP vote was heavily concentrated in the mountains. Booths up the mountains were really strong for Templeman and defo saved her.
Katoomba LIB 18.37 (-0.33) GRN 19.21 (-4.12) ALP 55.52 (+8.08)
Leura LIB 24.47 (-0.83) GRN 17.45 (-5.96) ALP 50.42 (+10.82)
Wentworth Falls LIB 28.97 (-0.76) GRN 15.33 (-4) ALP 49.83 (+9.27)
How do AJP preferences tend to break? I’ve never actually heard anything about it.
AJP prefs went about 55% to Labor at the Stretton by-election last month (compared to >80% from the Greens). Clearly not all AJP voters are former Greens.
If it’s GRN-LIB it’s about 75-25
GRN-ALP about 70-30
ALP-LIB about 65-35
These flows are strange but a lot of Animal Justice voters could be Lib strayers who simply hate the ALP
Well this is handy.
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateTppFlow-24310-NAT.htm
Interestingly their preference flows are strongest where their primary vote is strongest. Similar to the Greens in that respect.
The more they campaign the more voters are likely to know how the party wants them to preference the one the party choose.
Yep. Lots of minor party voters never see an HTV.
I am surprised that no one if even considering the COVID impact, not just in this seat but all over. Not sure what it will be but I think it is bound to shift things about.
people high up in the mountains are probably livid about being lumped in with sydney
I think this COVID outbreak will have a big impact on the results of the Commonwealth and NSW elections. A lot of NSW Commonwealth seats were in play for the Liberal party but I suspect not anymore, maybe the situation has turned and there are seats now for Labor to consider – Lindsay, Robertson (I know this is Central Coast but caught up in the situation). I would not want to be a Liberal and holding a seat in the Western Suburbs of Sydney at Commonwealth or State Level.
Lots of people now been commenting about seats out of play like this one even with razor thin margins, we are still 8 or so months away from an election and a lot can change from then so to completely rule this seat out for the liberals cause of what’s happening now is a step too far considering even safer seats with higher margins like Lindsay which won’t fall.
Pez, Lindsay is in play. It has the same boundaries as 2016. Do us a favour and analyse the 2016 result in Lindsay and come back here. McIntosh is another Fiona Scott. There is no evidence of demographic changes in western Sydney
If the swing is on the swing is on. Admittedly I’m not fascinated by the recent polls but if they are anything to believe then then it could be a bloodbath in NSW. And Macquarie won’t fall if seats are falling to Labor.
Penrith if anything is trending Labor because it voted to the left of the state in the NSW state election 2019
(posting again as I got a typo in my email)
Pez, Lindsay is in play. It has the same boundaries as 2016. Do us a favour and analyse the 2016 result in Lindsay and come back here. McIntosh is another Fiona Scott. There is no evidence of demographic changes in western Sydney
If the swing is on the swing is on. Admittedly I’m not fascinated by the recent polls but if they are anything to believe then then it could be a bloodbath in NSW. And Macquarie won’t fall if seats are falling to Labor.
Penrith if anything is trending Labor because it voted to the left of the state in the NSW state election 2019
Maybe Lindsay will become another Bass, not a bellwether but just changes hands because they contain some of the most fiercely divided demographics in the country.
Same with Swan (I use it as an example way too often) but the Libs have only had a good run in the seat since they’ve started doing better in the working class areas bc the wealthy areas are trending against them.
The only reason Lindsay fell in 2016 was because Malcolm Turnbull didn’t put effort in and people in outer suburbia didn’t like him the situation now is very different with Morrison as PM.
Surprised the liberal didn’t win this seat. If the liberal party has a good night they’ll pick this one up.
It was a poor campaign last time round. LIB should have won this seat but they did nothing with targetting what is the real battle-ground area, being the Lower Blue Mountains (Lapstone to Blaxland). If LIB get this area close to 50:50, they win the seat. But Sarah Richards didn’t campaign in the Lower Blue Mountains and only focused on running her numbers up around Richmond/Windsor.
If she is pre-selected again, she need to do a helluva better job than that.
The dangers for Labor would be a future redistribution due to the nature of the majority of the seats it surrounds. You have the Hawkesbury to the east. you have strong National territory to the west and to the south you have the South Sydney hinterland which is part of the seat of Hume.
And if it ever goes north into Hunter it isn’t all plain sailing for Labor either. So this seat will never become safe for Labor and if anything could lean to the coalition in any future redistribution.
Macquarie contains all of the Hawkesbury on its current boundaries.
Macquarie moving into the Hunter is unthinkable. The boundary between the Hawkesbury and the Hunter is one of the most uncrossable boundaries there is.
As a resident of this seat; I cannot begin to fathom how much people here despise Scott Morrison after his bushfire response.
Given the close margin of course this seat is competitive…I expect at this time there will a swing to labor generally so likely alp hold
I predict swings to Labor in the Blue Mountains and swings to the Coalition in the Hawkesbury. Same as last election, basically. The upper and mid mountains continue to trend left as more environmentally aware people move in, whereas in the Hawkesbury I reckon ScoMo would be quite popular. This seat should be broken up and redistributed, easier said than done though.
Interesting that on the Mountains + Hawkesbury boundaries Labor has won in 2016 & 2019 despite state-wide NSW vote being well under their 1993 peak which was only previous occasion they won Macquarie on these boundaries. Is this due to leftward shift in Mountains? I don’t have 1993 figures but in 1987 Labor led by 10 in Katoomba and in 2019 by 38, and in Richmond Libs led by 4 in 1987 & 17 in 2019. A seat where culture wars help Labor?
GR, Basically at every election since around 2004 (with the notable exception of 2013) the upper mountains have had a swing to Labor. Even in 2010, when Labor last the seat and there was no incumbent, there were swings to Labor in the upper mountains. During the Howard years on these boundaries, it was fairly easily held by the Libs and in 2007 on these boundaries would have been only narrowly won by Labor even if it had a great result in NSW. The upper mountains is increasingly very left wing. We can see the same trend at the state level as well. https://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionTcpByPollingPlace-15508-133.htm. The Dandenongs (Casey) is starting to show a similar pattern. This why i believe Macquarie is the most polarised seat in the country and will be one of the hardest to predict in 2022 because the Hawkesbury and Blue Mountains could move in opposite directions.
inreresting results so far in cowncil the liberals appear to be doing well in penrith and a lot of western sydney with the acseption of bm and blacktown maybi the view that the libs neglectid western sydney with the harsh lockdowns didnt work especial in penrith and liverpool where they increased there vote which is suproizing as liverpool had a hard lock down
Failed candidates rarely ever win when they try again and why on earth is Scott Morrison endorsing the same liberal candidate again? Why can’t he refuse to support a failed candidate who will likely cost them the seat?
When a candidate loses they were rejected by the people and so they shouldn’t be selected again. (Same thing should have gone for the sitting member when she lost twice before being elected)
Labor hold with healthy swing to them of 4-5%
@Daniel is at it again.
Sarah Richards earned a 6.6% swing TO her in an election the Morrison Government was expected to lose and only lost by less than 300 votes.
“Failed candidate?” Seriously? She did well to get that close in the first place. She at least deserves a 2nd crack. Fiona Scott got the 2nd chance and then won in Lindsay.
Aaron, the Liberals ran Ned Mannoun as candidate for mayor in Liverpool Council. He was a local who focussed his efforts on ‘bread and butter’ issues in this ethinic majority part of Sydney. Also other posters on this site argue many Western Sydney residents are not really concerned about government issues such as lockdowns, they just want to focus on what benefits they and their families can receive.
Daniel
It is harsh to say that a candidate having a second go is a ‘failed candidate’. They may have done well and come close or be a candidate in a bad year and kept the swing down. The advantage of a candidate having a second go is that they have some degree of name recognition in the electorate and can build on their experience. Admittedly there are some extremes like Ricky Johnston who won Canning in 1996 on the 5th go and then lost again 1998 but they are outliers.
There are also the serial candidates such as Jennifer Yang who ran for the ALP in Chisholm (Whitehorse and Monash LGA) and had previously run for local government in Manningham, a state seat in Monash , the senate and Lord Mayor of Melbourne (twice) and except for the local government didn’t win any. I would call that political desperation!!
Jordon Steele-John ran for the state seat of Warnbro, the federal seat of Fremantle and then for the Senate in 2014 and 2016, and got elected after Scott Ludlam became ineligible. Not really political desperation, because he’s probably fairly likely to be there for a good long while yet.
Minor party candidates are probably more likely to be the ones contesting multiple races, as their chances of winning are quite low, especially for lower house seats. Even upper house races can be tough for a minor party unless they are already fairly established or have a well known lead candidate.
@Daniel – That is 4 people altogether who have come out and shown how dumb that comment is. FYI, this isn’t a one-off either, it is consistent.
This is why you get the criticism from myself and others. We just don’t think you learn from it.
Daniel,
The Lodge is full of ‘failed candidates.’
As is the House:
Starting with incumbents:
Warren Snowden MHR lost in Northern Territory in 1996, & re-contested in 1998, & has subsequently represented Territorians in the House for 27 years, to add to his 9 years representing Territorians from 1987-1996.
Katrina Jane Allen MHR challenged for Prahran 2018. I’d be happy to be called a loser, having seen the attendant pension.
Adam Bandt MHR contested Melbourne in 2007. Subsequently won, and even became parliamentary party leader.
Peta Murphy MHR ran for Dunkley, in 2016 & challenged again in 2019.
Libby Coker MHR challenged for Polwarth (Victorian LA) in 2014.
Senator Janet Rice has challenged for Gellibrand HoR, and Footscray. Subsequently she was elected to the Senate for three terms.
Andrew Laming MHR ran for Bowman in 2004.
Rob Mitchell MHR ran for Central Highlands (LC) in 1999.
But, contemporary losers aside, what does history tell us?
Michael Danby MHR (ret) lost his initial tilt @ Federal Parliament in 1990.
Wayne Swan also lost his HoR contest in Lilly in 1996. Went on to become EuroMoney ‘finance minister,’ award winner.
Bob Katter MHR lost his HoR contest in 1990. Whatever became of him?
As did PM Kevin Rudd in 1996, & PM Julia Gillard in 1996.
Rudd even lost the support of the Caucus, only to subsequently run for Caucus support again.
In Victoria;
Premier Steve Bracks – Steve lost several elections for Ballarat, at various levels of Government. Heard from since.
John Brumby – lost Bendigo HoR seat 1990. Heard from since.
Carolyn Hirsch MLA contested laTrobe in 1996 & 1998, and went on to win election for Victorian Parliament.
Tony Gerard Peter Robinson: ran for Deakin ?1996.
Maxine Morand MLA (ret) contested Kooyong in 1998.
Hi Will Fowles MP, Will ( MLA ) challenged for East Yarra in LC in 2002.
Technically current MP’s Barnaby Joyce, John Alexander, Katie Gallacher, Larissa Waters, & Jacqui Lambie lost their tilts in 2016, by virtue of disqualification. All re-contested.
The most notable perennial candidates;-
Third Place: John Winston Howard a.k.a Lazarus, in his day. Lost contest for Drummoyne in 1968. Whatever became of him?
Lord Stanley Melbourne Bruce lost contest for Flinders 1929. Come 1932: Back in the pink.
Second place: William Maloney MHR (ret) lost by-election for Melbourne in 1903. Subsequently won seat at General Election in 1904, before being turfed out in …. 1940.
First place: Robert James Lee Hawke – contested Corio in 1963. Whatever became of him.
Phil
A correction. Bob Katter SENIOR did not run in 1990 and died soon afterwards. Bob Katter JUNIOR is the current member since 1993. Though you could add that Rob Hulls was MP and lost to Bob Katter in 1993 and the went back to Victoria to enter state politics.
Thanks RD,
for that correction. & kudos for Ricky Johnston example. (& to Ryan for JSJ)
matters My ignorance of Queensland matters got me. My only riposte is to say that, to give her due credit, Jennifer Yang actually won a seat on Manningham council, rising to the mayoralty, before resigning in 2016 in order to contest Senate.
Further (self)clarification;- Andrew Laming lost in 2001, before turning the tables. Thanks also for Rob Hulls name, as he is best remembered for laughing at Paul Keating’s taunts. There are many more successful second or subsequent tilts. A prize example is, of course, Susan Templeman, at the very heart of this contest, and is mentioned in Daniel’s 3am., post. -undermining his opening claim.