ALP 6.1%
Incumbent MP
Josh Burns, since 2019.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Inner south of Melbourne. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park and South Melbourne.
Redistribution
Macnamara lost Windsor to Higgins. This change slightly reduced the Labor margin from 6.2% to 6.1%.
History
Melbourne Ports was an original Federation electorate. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins.
Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910.
Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931.
Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, and served in the Cabinet of John Curtin and Ben Chifley throughout the 1940s. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean.
Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977.
Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. He won preselection against Simon Crean, son of Frank. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998.
Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby held the seat for the next two decades, retiring in 2019. Labor candidate Josh Burns won Macnamara in 2019.
- John Myers (Independent)
- Colleen Harkin (Liberal)
- Josh Burns (Labor)
- Debera Anne (One Nation)
- Rob McCathie (Liberal Democrats)
- Ben Schultz (Animal Justice)
- Steph Hodgins-May (Greens)
- Jane Hickey (United Australia)
Assessment
Macnamara has been under threat from the Liberal Party in the past, but it’s unlikely the Liberal Party could win in the current environment. The Greens are also targetting this seat with the goal of overtaking Labor and winning. That is a real possibility if they do well.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kate Ashmor | Liberal | 36,283 | 37.4 | -4.6 | 37.5 |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 30,855 | 31.8 | +5.2 | 31.8 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 23,534 | 24.2 | +0.1 | 24.0 |
| Craig Mcpherson | Animal Justice | 1,919 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Helen Lucy Paton | United Australia Party | 1,136 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Ruby O’Rourke | Independent | 1,108 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 1.1 |
| Steven Armstrong | Sustainable Australia | 974 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| Chris Wallis | Independent | 918 | 0.9 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| Christine Kay | Rise Up Australia | 365 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.4 |
| Informal | 4,288 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 54,613 | 56.2 | +5.0 | 56.1 |
| Kate Ashmor | Liberal | 42,479 | 43.8 | -5.0 | 43.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield.
Labor won a large 70.2% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in St Kilda, 55% in Caulfield and 57.5% in Port Melbourne.
On a primary vote basis, the three areas look very different. The Greens topped the primary vote in St Kilda, with the Liberal Party a distant third. In Caulfield, the Liberal Party was far out ahead, while the Liberal Party narrowly outpolled Labor in Port Melbourne.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | LIB prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| St Kilda | 35.6 | 34.4 | 23.6 | 70.2 | 17,186 | 18.5 |
| Port Melbourne | 22.4 | 35.2 | 36.1 | 57.5 | 16,147 | 17.4 |
| Caulfield | 20.6 | 33.8 | 40.3 | 55.0 | 8,320 | 9.0 |
| Pre-poll | 22.5 | 30.8 | 40.3 | 53.5 | 29,947 | 32.3 |
| Other votes | 19.3 | 27.9 | 44.9 | 47.8 | 21,199 | 22.8 |
Election results in Macnamara at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
The PM has appointed Jillian Segal has first appointed envoy to combat Antisemitism.
It’s very interesting to see that Caulfield, Caulfield North and Caulfield South are not only very Jewish but Judaism is actually the largest religion in all three of those suburbs.
Caulfield is the most Jewish suburb of Australia, with Jews making up a massive 41.4% of the suburb’s residents, despite Jews only making up 0.7% of Victoria’s population and just 0.4% of Australia’s population. Furthermore, 8.1% of Caulfield residents nominated “Jewish” as their nationality (compared to 0.2% of Victoria and 0.1% of Australia).
The Jews in the Caulfield area seem to be predominantly Polish, with 8.4% of Caulfield being Polish by nationality. Russian is the most spoken language other than English in Caulfield, with 5.2% speaking Russian, while 4.1% speak Hebrew. The most common country of birth other than Australia is South Africa at 5.7% followed by Israel at 2.8%.
I always knew Caulfield had a LOT of Jews but I never thought it was 40%.
By the way, the most Muslim suburb in Australia is Lakemba in Sydney where 41.6% of residents are Muslims (mostly Lebanese Muslims and to a lesser extent Bangladeshi Muslims).
What’s the most Jewish suburb of Sydney? Is it Vaucluse, where 19.8% of the population is Jewish?
I think Dover heights – 49.9% Jewish… followed by Rose bay (29%)
49.9% is HUGE. That’s even more than Caulfield!
There’s some suggestion that pro-Israel and/or Jewish Liberal voters would tactically vote Labor, to stop the Greens from winning this. This follows the near miss in 2022. I sense a personal vote for Josh Burns following local antisemitism.
There were rumours at the last two elections (take it with a grain of salt) that Mark Dreyfus was going to retire. Labor may want him in cabinet for the next election. His departure might fracture the Jewish vote.
@Nether Portal, in Lakemba, a lot of businesses and organisations are Arabic-dominated but the most common sources of migrants are Bangladesh, Pakistan and India as well as Myanmar (a source of Rohingya Muslims). The South Asian population boomed from the 2010s. It was Little Lebanon back in the 2000s and earlier.
I think the most ethnically diverse suburb would probably be Auburn with large Chinese, Muslim and Nepalese communities with in fact no Anglo groups in the top five largest ancestry
@NP, Lakemba is 61.2% Muslim and they used to be Lebanese but is now main South Asian Muslims.
The suburb of St Kilda East is split over two LGAs which roughly half in Port Phillip and half in Glen Eira. While the Port Phillip half of St Kilda East is only 11% Jewish (roughly the same as Balaclava), the Glen Eira half of St Kilda East is a whopping 56% Jewish. If it was its own suburb, it would be by far the most Jewish in Australia, even moreso than neighbouring Caulfield & Caulfield North.
(The ABS actually puts the Glen Eira half of St Kilda East into the ‘Caulfield – North’ SA2, whereas the ‘St Kilda East’ SA2 is actually the Port Phillip half combined with Balaclava).
@ Trent
Dover Heights Jewish population has slowly increased over the years so may end up being Jewish majority. Also if we compare Bondi to St Kilda, The Bondi area still has a significant Jewish community and North Bondi is 22% Jewish which is huge compared to Greater Sydney.It is interesting that areas like Mosman, Manly, Clontarf etc has virtually no Jews despite being the same in property prices, SES and having Harbourfront and Surf beaches.
How did this seat go from almost being won by the Liberals in 2016 to being a safe Labor seat that Josh Burns has to campaign heavily against the Greens (more so than the Liberals) to hold on in 2024/25?
@ Nether Portal
Dumping Turnbull and moving further to the rights. It is my honest opinion that had Turnbull still led the party to the 2019 election and Danby was the candiate the Libs would have won it with a good Jewish candiate.
@Nimalan do you think Josh Burns could’ve ran for the Liberals if Turnbull was still leader? He has moderate views and is part of the Labor Right faction.
@nimalan although if turnbull had stil been leader in 2019 hed of lost other seats to shorten and be out fo govt.
@ NP
I dont think he could have run for the Liberals because he is more Old Labor sort of person. He was a member of the Jewish Labor Bund. But i am sure, there there others who could have ran. Gideon Rozner is possibly one and he is Jewish. In a seat like this they would like someone with a right wing foreign policy, economic Liberalism but Pro-environment.
the fact that labor are now in govt is gonna hurt them agin on the primary vote whihc they wil likely shed to the greens and maybe a bit to the libs. unless as you say people decide to tactically vote labor.
@ John
That what i just posted on the Wills thread, tactical voting is Josh Burns best bet. In a closely knit community it is easier to achieve.
Mcnamara was never a seat to be won by the liberals. The one election they polled well in was because Mr Danby. Now it is between Labor and the Greens. The 3 parties could each poll 33% of the vote though. The Caulfield tail has a better community of interest with another nearby seat.
@nimalan its his only bet. without it he wont make the 2cp
@ MQ
I agree that Danby was deeply unpopular outside Caulfield but the seat is gentrifying and the Liberals were getting close to winning the state seat of Albert Park as well where Danby is not an issue.
@Nimalan do you think a moderate leader like Pesutto can win Albert Park? He would have to win over voters in areas like Port Melbourne and the southern half of Docklands to win it.
Also why was Danby so deeply unpopular?
@ Nether Portal
i think a moderate leader like Pesutto can win Albert Park over two elections but not one, Seats like Kew, Hawthorn,Brighton and Sandringham have to be on double digits first. They will need to demonstrate that they are economically right wing and not obsessed about culture wars. Probably a seat for the second term
Danby was unpopular among the left-wing because he was seen as very right-wing on Foreign policy a bit like James Paterson, Andrew Hastie. That is not really much of an issue among Liberal voters here but more among some of the left of the Labor party and the Greens.