Macnamara – Australia 2022

“I think the true boundary here is Hotham street which separates Port Phillip from Glen Eira.”

100% agree. Crossing Hotham Street is where you notice an immediate difference.

West of Hotham, St Kilda East and Balaclava retain the same urban feeling that the eastern triangle of St Kilda (between the highway and Chapel) and Windsor have: Almost entirely a mix of 3-storey walkup blocks of flats and single fronted terraces, no nature strips, etc. Lots of renters and young people.

East of Hotham, the Glen Eira part of St Kilda East is totally different and more similar to Caulfield North. Tree lined, nature strips, large houses, large schools, etc.

It’s a perfect boundary I think.

One more boundary that should change though id the southern one with Goldstein: Glenhuntly Road. Should move up to Glen Eira Road regardless of whether that border will be with Macnamara as it currently is, or Higgins.

A major activity centre like Glenhuntly Road shouldn’t be a boundary because the traders on both sides of the road are a single community of interest. Thoroughfares like Hotham and Glen Eira make better boundaries.

Another phenomenal result for the Greens. Steph Hodgins-May did so much better than I expected. The only things saving Josh Burns here today are the cratering Liberal vote and, most importantly of all, the perfect little gerrymander with Higgins.

Question now is what becomes of the boundaries at the next election. A redistribution will see Josh ousted in 2025, but if they fight too hard to preserve the current borders then they might just end up losing both Macnamara *and* Higgins.

Amazing result from Steph Hodgins-May and even if she doesn’t win, hopefully it will energize her to try a 4th time.

As you say FL, the main thing working against Steph HM here is actually just the complete obliteration of the Liberals most likely making this a Labor v Greens count. Her best hope now is that the Liberals smash Labor in the postal votes but that’s unlikely.

Either way this might be the last seat to be called because it won’t even be mnown who the two-party count is between until a full distribution of preferences, and all 3 combinations are possible.

But I’m tipping Burns to hold in a Labor v Greens count.

The LIB/ALP 2PP here will be Labor’s best since before Caulfield was in the seat and the Lib PV may be the lowest in 5-6 decades….

1966 was the last time the Liberal PV was below 30% in Melbourne Ports / Macnamara.

The Victorian redistribution in general will be fascinating.

Labor will be desperate to hang on to its own newly-acquired seats, and presumably also very keen to protect and help the Independents as well. The ‘logical’ approach to me at face value would be to consolidate the 4 Labor seats of Chisholm, Hotham, Isaacs and Bruce into 3, but I’m sure they won’t want to do that. So it will be interesting to see what constructions they try to come up with.

Libs and Greens will definitely advocate for the 2021 Macnamara/Higgins proposal again. Libs to get Higgins back and Greens to make Macnamara notionally Green. Labor will emphatically opposite it.

On the Macnamara count, Kevin Bonham’s blog of its post-election count says his model projects PVs of:
Labor 30.3
Greens 30.2
Liberal 29.7

Incredibly close, basically meaning minor preference flows could eliminate any one of the 3, especially since 4 of the minors are right wing and Labor are likely to get the least minor preferences. But that so far the postals have been better for Labor than the model projects so they are most likely to retain.

This will be the last seat to be called I think.

Gettin spicy
https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm

What a fascinating race this has turned into.

William Bowe’s update on PB tonight sums it up well and he states that based on what’s left and how the numbers are falling, things are now trending the Greens way.

To put it simply, the AEC 3CP preference throw, which is now complete for all ballots counted so far, currently has Labor 50 votes behind the Liberals and 495 ahead of the Greens in the 3PP race.

There’s an estimated 6500 ballots left to count, and if they continue to break the same way they currently are, and Covid votes also favour the Greens, they will be on track to erase that deficit, while the strong preference flow to the Libs also keeps them ahead of Labor, dropping Labor to third place.

This was looking like a near-certain Labor retain but every batch of votes that has come in has been breaking exactly the way it needs to for the Greens to win, so basically they just need that to continue through the last 6000+ votes to win the seat, while Labor need the final 6000+ to be sufficiently weaker for *either* the Greens or Liberals for them to retain it.

It’s a nailbiter and is shaping up for all 3 to be over 33% in the 3PP count (would that be the closest 3PP count ever?), meaning any 2CP combination is still possible.

No way Labor comes 3rd. I can see the Greens overtaking Labor. But Labor will win majority government, Labor will hold this. It is absolutely ridiculous that the ABC and Pollbludger is being conservative on their calls.

Deakin is also Liberal, the trends are helping Sukkar there on postals.

The only seat that is in-doubt in my mind is Gilmore which is likely to go Liberal.

All the seats on the ABC website that are “in-doubt” will remain with the parties that currently lead them on the current counts.

Greens overtaking Labor means Labor will finish 3rd. I think there are enough Right Wing Micro Party Party votes to push Libs ahead into first.

I was thinking Mcnamara was a certain Labor retain at least on Election night but at this stage I think Greens would be favourites to win Mcnamara.

There are 4,658 envelopes waiting to processed, only 200 of them are postals, they are late arriving postals which I guess will favour Greens or break even.

The remaining are all absentee, provisional and Declaration pre polls. The votes in these categories already counted are favouring Greens by a good enough margin to close the gap between Labor and Greens on primary which makes it likely for Greens to overtake Labor on minor Party preferences at the 3pp stage.

I thought this was Labour’s until I read ABC’s Anthony Green’s column in which he said he was going to call it for Labour, until the Labour candidate for Macnamara phoned him and said the Greens could still win it. Yesterday ABC only called Brisbane for Greens after the Labour candidate made a concession call to the Green candidate. My last 3CP calculation had the Greens 422 preferences ahead of Labour at the final 3CP count in Macnamara.

Daniel, the biggest problem for Labor at the moment is that their margin vs Liberals on how the current votes are breaking is smaller than the advantage the Liberals are getting over Labor on minor preferences.

Therefore, just say Libs are averaging 26% and Labor 29% on new batches, after minor preferences (“others” are currently averaging around 12%) they are basically getting around 30.5% each on 3PP terms, which means the Liberals’ lead isn’t going away.

Labor need the remaining votes to actually break stronger for them compared to the Libs than they have, to get in front of them.

Patreon’s analysis is on the money and there could actually be up to 6500 votes left if more postals are received (the last batch actually did break 26 LIB, 29 ALP, 33 GRN, 12 OTH which is enough to keep the Liberals ahead of Labor).

Just to clarify Daniel, Liberals currently lead Labor by 50 votes on the 3CP, but the rstes at which new votes are breaking, after the Libs outpace Labor 3:1 on minor preferences, is actually adding to that lead, not reducing it.

Therefore the Greens are rapidly catching up but are not doing so at the expense of the Liberals.

I don’t agree, Pollbludger called this for Labor actually I just checked,

The Liberals are still 3rd on the primary vote, so unless they can improve on absentees,postals,provisionals then they will remain 3rd.

Conservatives doing better on postals isn’t always the case in progressive seats.

It sounds as if Josh Burns doesn’t want to win. Because Antony Green knows way more (if it is true that he was going to call it)

Conceding and declaring victory is only a formality.

The only way that I can’t see Labor winning here is if all the cards fall the right way for the Greens – and that doesn’t often happen. It might be close but hard to see.

Can somebody explain why if the AEC are doing a 3 way count here, why they are not doing one in Richmond which seems (to me) a seat where the Greens could still get up or at least be second.

Should the Greens get up here, I can see all Labor arguments for keeping the Caulfield ‘tail’ mysteriously evaporate before the 2024 redistribution.

Daniel, Poll Bludger hasn’t called the seat. William Bowe explains in his latest blog (from after yesterday’s counting finished) that his results system is incorrectly calling it due to its inability to think in three-party terms.

William Bowe actually says he thinks it’s trending Greens. From his post 24 hours ago:

“All of this amounts to bad news for Labor in its quest for 76 seats, with Brisbane now out of the picture and the odds most likely leaning against them in Macnamara, which I for one thought they had in the bag earlier in the week, and which my results system is continuing to call as Labor retain due to its inability to think in three-party terms.”

As for the current results as they stand, the AEC has been conducting and publishing a 3CP count and the Liberals are in fact first:

https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm

I’m not saying that the Greens will win (I do think it’s close to 50/50 though), but you’re wrong about two things:

1. That the Liberals can’t get into first place, because they are actually already on first place in the current 3CP count, AND on top of that, the current rates of absents, prepolls and the last batch of postals all have the Liberals outperforming Labor after minor preferences;

2. Poll Bludger has not called it for Labor, they have actually said the “odds are most likely leaning against them” now.

Basically all that has to happen for the Greens to currently win, is that the votes need to keep breaking exactly as they are, and there needs to be at least 800 more postal votes received. If that happens, they win.

But, because the margins are so slim, what favours Labor is that it won’t take much of a change to how votes are breaking (either Libs or Greens start doing worse) for them to stay in the top two and win.

However, it’s ridiculous to say that the Libs will come third if they don’t improve, when they are currently first on the 3CP and all the current batches of votes are tracking to improve their lead…

Here’s a summary of the current state of play.

Current 3CP count:
1. LIB 29,202
2. ALP 29,152
3. GRN 28,657

Current preference flow: LIB 47%, GRN 35.4%, ALP 17.6%.

So let’s look at Absent votes first. 1422 are remaining and they are breaking 24.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 34.2% GRN, 13.2% Other.

At first glance that looks like Labor would outperform the Liberals right? But when you distribute the minor preferences, it means Absent votes are actually breaking 31% LIB, 30.2% ALP and 38.8% GRN in 3CP terms.

Dec Prepolls are a similar situation. 3483 remaining and they are breaking 25.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 30.8% GRN and 15.6% Other. In 3CP terms, it means Dec Prepolls are breaking 33.1% LIB, 30.6% ALP, 36.3% GRN.

This is all bad news for Labor because it means the Greens are rapidly catching them, while the Liberals are pulling away from them.

If we assume that 90% of remaining absents & dec prepolls are formal, and they break exactly the way they have been so far, that will add the following votes to each party:

1434 to the Libs
1347 to Labor
1634 to the Greens

Which brings the totals to:
1. LIB 30,636
2. ALP 30,499
3. GRN 30,291

Now we have the Libs ahead of Labor by 137 votes, and the Greens only 208 votes behind, with still the following remaining:

– Provisionals (always favour Greens)
– Reports of 1000 Covid votes (both parties expect to favour Greens)
– Still a total 4648 postals issued but not counted

The last batch of postal votes broke 26.7% LIB, 28.5% ALP, 33.2% GRN, 11.6% Other. In 3CP terms after minor preferences, that’s 32.2% LIB, 30.5% ALP, 37.3% GRN if postals continue flowing like the last batch too (and every single batch has been moving in that same direction).

Long post I know, but in short – the Liberals are already ahead of Labor on 3CP terms, and if vote continue to break exactly as they have been, they grow their lead while the Greens continue to catch up.

Don’t get me wrong. The Greens have a ridiculously small margin of error for it to not work out for them.

Eg. If all the remaining votes, using Kevin Bonham’s expectation of 1750 postal votes, break exactly as they currently are, I only have the Greens beating Labor by about 50 votes which would be an automatic recount.

And all it will take is slightly weaker flows for them, particularly from the postal votes, or just less postal votes being returned, for Labor to stay ahead of them.

Considering that, I still think Labor are the best position to win and probably will. But damn I’d be nervous if I was them with the way each batch of votes has been breaking.

ReD
Being second to Labour merely guarantees a Labour win.
Labour need only finish in final two run-off.
Currently [83.41% point] ALP lead Liberals by 4 420 and Greens by 3 873.
Assume no leap in turnout leaves 8 792 votes remaining to be counted, less 6.44% informal rate (566 votes) = 8 226 votes;- are not sufficient from which Green & Liberals can find 8 295 primary votes. This is a mathematical certainty that labour will be in top two primary count.
Preferences from fourth & further candidates total 21.8%, but 14% is with ‘right wing’ groups which favoured Liberals over Labour over Greens strongly in 2019.
Sure, the 2CP run-off will be revealed upon the throw of all preferences. And silver medals can be distr… oh wait.

Phil, the AEC have already done a 3CP count for all the ballots currently counted, and published it.

The current 3CP order after about 87,000 votes is 1 Libs, 2 Labor, 3 Greens.

So the Liberals have no catching up to do to stay in the top two, because they’re already first by 50 votes.

The Greens are only 495 votes behind Labor in the 3CP count.

In most remaining vote types, the Liberals are currently outpacing Labor by between 1-3% in 3CP terms (despite Labor getting a higher primary vote), and the Greens are currently outpacing Labor by between 5-8%. This even includes the most recent batches of postal votes where the Greens outperformed Labor by 7% (after minor preferences).

In other words, current vote trends are extending the Liberals’ 50 vote lead, and closing the Greens’ 495 vote deficit to push Labor into third.

The key questions now are just:

– Will the current flows (which put the Greens on track to pass Labor) continue? And;

– Will there be enough votes left for the Greens to close the gap on current rates?

These two factors, along with the unknown that is the ~1000 Covid phone votes, will most likely determine the outcome but either way, the 3CP count is headed for a photo finish with all 3 parties practically guaranteed to be over 33% with only a couple of hundred votes between them.

“…I only have the Greens beating Labor by about 50 votes which would be an automatic recount.”

Do automatic recounts apply to 3CP counts?

Not sure actually!

My prediction here is that the Greens will probably fall *just* short of knocking Labor out of second place, because just too much has to go right for them with such a small margin of error for it to happen. But its certainly possible.

And no matter what the result, considering the Greens are currently third on 32.93% and all the remaining votes should favour them, I think its safe to say all 3 candidates will finish between a minimum of 33.1% and a maximum of 33.6% when the 3CP count is complete.

(My prediction is around 33.5% LIB, 33.3% ALP, 33.2% GRN)

That’s extraordinary, quite possibly the closest 3 way 3CP count ever, and I think a full 3CP recount if it’s that close is a very likely possibility.

I find it interesting that the Party and Independents who had stronger positions on tackling climate change gained more seats than Labour, not sure about Dai Le in Fowler, but that was another howler from Labour. If Labour end up not winning Macnamara, it will be a case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But I agree with comments on this blog that both Bowes and Green have not called it for Labour, which does not mean that they believe Greens have it, just that it is too close to call. Green was also very careful about Brisbane, which shows just how close some of these races have been. Globally the pollsters, in 2022, have been consistently overestimating social democratic support and underestimating Green support. Every pollster, except Resolve Strategic, overestimated Labour support and Essential correctly called L/NP support. Essential, Roy Morgan and Resolve Strategic were all well within MoE, while Newspoll-You Gov and Ipsos were right on the edge of an acceptable MoE, some would say over for Labour. Newspoll-You Gov actually picked up a bounce for the Greens over the last six days before E-Day, and that helps explain why late arriving postals in Macnamara appear to be breaking more to Green than Labour. Ultimately it will come down to the mix of late and early pre-E-Day voting.

Labor appeared to have picked up primary votes in both Brisbane and Macnamara – just the greens picked up more, so not all negative for them
Interestingly the preferences for non-green/lib/labor voters in those seats (mainly right-wing UAP,ON, LDP and smaller left-wing AJP) were split around 50% lib, 35% green and 15% alp – so assume more UAP/ON/LDP voters preferenced greens over labor. That is what is putting the greens in contention in both seats

ABC has given Labor Macnamara and hence get a majority of 76 seats. I think this is more important then people think. Not just passing legislation in the House if representatives but also the symbolism of legitimacy that Anthony Albanese won a majority in his own right.

The Greens could very easily gain this seat if Albanese turns out to be a disappointment and if the looming redistribution removes Caulfield and adds South Yarra and Prahran.

Antony Green just called the seat for Labor. ALP got 31.8% of the primary vote but 62.3% of the 2PP. This must be a record for having the biggest difference between the primary vote and 2PP vote.

Josh Burns came first on primaries and he can thank the collapse in the Liberal vote. I’d be interested in seeing the final preference flows.

I agree, PN. Since Labor already needs the support of the Greens to pass anything through the Senate, it doesn’t make a huge difference in practical terms whether they also need Greens (or Independent) support in the House or have a majority in their own right. But the symbolism is incredibly important, with all the talk both before and after the election about the prospect of minority government and the low major party combined primary vote. It will make a massive difference in how the Albanese government is seen.

Votante, re: Labor possibly having a record difference between their primary vote and 2PP vote, I think that ties into another likely record that this race will set, and that’s the smallest margin between all 3 parties in a 3CP count.

I project the following based on what’s left to count:
LIB – 33.5%
ALP – Just over 33.3%
GRN – Just under 33.2%

Basically around 0.4% (less than 400 votes) between first and third. Incredible stuff!

Dan M, this is a fantastic result for the Greens and after a 1 term Labor government they will be in a great position to flip it next time.

However, the problem they might face in that redistribution scenario is that removing the Liberals’ best area (Caulfield) would almost certainly drop the Libs to third place and make it an ALP v Greens count where they’d probably have a 5% margin to make up rather than a ~200 vote margin to get into a LIB v GRN count.

Of couse, the Liberals could drop to third (especially with Dutton as leader and Libs’ choosing to abandon inner city seats) even on the current boundaries anyway. At least the boundary change – adding more Greens territory – would significantly decrease the ALP v GRN margin.

Do we have a final figure for the 3PP?

Full distribution of preferences was just released in a zip file according to Poll Bludger, I downloaded it and had a look then.

Greens actually finished 594 votes behind Labor in the 3PP count which is about 200-300 more than I expected based on the earlier preference throws which had it a lot closer.

The second last exclusion (UAP) is what leapfrogged the Liberals from 3rd to 1st and eliminated the Greens. The 4PP results were:

1. Labor – 32.94%
2. Greens – 31.50%
3. Liberal – 30.69%
4. UAP – 4.88%

The exclusion of UAP made it:

1. Liberal – 33.67% (31,327)
2. Labor – 33.48% (31,149)
3. Greens – 32.84% (30,555)

Thoughts on who would’ve won this seat based on the state election figures? Liberal vote recovered in parts of Caulfield which isnt good news for Labor holding onto Macnamara at the next election.

Labor would have still won since they still hold Albert Park by a 11% margin compared to the Libs’ 2% margin in Caufield though there was a 2% swing to the Libs in both seats against expectations the Lib vote would further collapse in that area like in the federal election.

Agree, Dan M, also need to note that much of Prahran is also in Macnamara in all 3 seats the Libs overperformed their federal results in May and like what we saw in their elite heartland there was some recovery these seats (taking into account more right-wing minor parties this time like FFV) compared to 2018. This due to running a more centrist campaign including accepting climate targets, not running on “African Gangs” etc. I would argue if they preferenced the cookers last and Michael O’Brien was the leader they would have done better here.

When comparing Greens and Labor. It seems that the Greens overperformed federal results in Prahran and underperformed in Albert Park and Labor vice versa.

I disagree with you Nimalan, it’s worth noting Labor still had a 7% swing against them and the Greens got a 4% increase in primary votes in one of the most gentrified areas of the Macnamara electorate (Port Melbourne). The Greens still got the increase in the vote with the independent running and as seen on the VEC website, most Independent voters put the Greens above Labor and Liberals. Greens definitely over performed in Prahran.

Also disagree with you Dan M. It is completely misleading to analyse the Labor Albert Park Margin and Caulfield Margin considering that Balaclava, St Kilda and other areas are in the Caulfield electorate (fairly progressive electorates). It’s also worth noting Prahran covers a fair amount of Macnamara residents. If anything, I would be extremely worried if I was Josh Burns. Because 500 votes separated the Greens from Labor, and in all seats covering Macnamara, the Greens had an increase in primary votes, 8% in Prahran, 4% in Albert Park, and even 1.1% in Caulfield with a teal running. Labor’s primary votes in all three of these electorates went backwards which should set Red flags in Labor HQ.

I think Albo will be popular come 2025 but Josh’s failure to change mental health policy will be damaging in such a progressive seat such as Macnamara.

It’s early, but ripe for a Greens gain

@ Bingo i was not trying to make a political point but when i said Greens underperformed in Albert Park. I compared it to the Macnamara electorate results in May not the 2018 state results where a Greens ran. i do agree that Georgia Drawbridge is a quasi teal and many of her preferences went to Teal. Trent had already calculated the breakdown of the primary vote for Albert Park based on the May federal results. The Greens would have got 32% in May but only got 20% of November. i would part of the story here is that the Libs overperfomed in Elite areas such as Albert Park compared to May. If we consider that there was no minor right wing parties such as LDP and FFV running in 2018 state election there was actually a small increase in the right-wing vote. I am not saying the results will be repeated in 2025 for Josh Burns a Dutton led Liberal party will underperform the state Libs which moved back to the centre on climate. Also the issue for Josh Burns is that most of the population growth is occurring in the west of the seat such as Southbank/Fishermens Bend.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/albertpark2022/comment-page-1#comment-776581

* her preferences went to greens I mean

The Greens did really well in Caulfield, which I think most people would have agreed was previously seen as an extremely anti-Green area. After all didn’t Michael Danby use to hand out HTV cards preferencing the Liberals above the Greens because he thought the Greens were so disliked in the area.

From what I can see, the Greens actually got some of their biggest swings in the Caulfield area – booth-wise: Caulfield East (+9.3%, 27.2%), Caulfield (+9.3%, 19.3%), Caulfield South Central (+6.5%, 25.0%), and managed to top the primary vote in Caulfield Upper (+9.5%, 32.4%). And the upwards trend doesn’t seem to be an outlier limited to federal results in the area. The Greens managed to increase their vote in the state seat of Caulfield (+1.0%, 15.8%) at the recent state election despite a teal independent running and competing for that vote too.

It might be a moot point given the upcoming redistribution, but I don’t think Caulfield should be seen as a barrier to the Greens winning Macnamara/Melbourne Ports anymore like it was once said to be, though I do wonder why the Greens performed strongly and seemed to “break through” in 2022 specifically.

@ GPPS,

Booth results in Caulfield are sometimes skewed as Jewish residents often dont vote on the day to the Sabbath and it these voters that most hostile to the Greens. The Green vote is often overstated in the booth result and the Lib vote understated. I do agree that the the Greens can win Macnamara even without the redistribution. However, i still think it is a challenge IMHO. Since the Labor PV reached a low ebb in 2016 it has started to rise again at the expense of the Libs. There is a real chance that with Dutton has leader the Burns can pick up more votes from the Libs around Caulfield to offset increase in Green vote elsewhere especially among Jewish voters who are otherwise Liberal but do not want to vote Green. There is a real chance that the Libs will be knocked out of the 2CP and it will be a ALP/Green contest in which case unless the Libs preference Greens ahead of Labor the ALP will win the seat.

GPPS,

Would the increase in apartments around the race course have anything to do with that?

@greens and nimalan depending on the redistribution and the weird shape Macnamara will most likely shed the low voting greens area of caufield and take in south yarra and Windsor from Higgins. Which has a much higher greens vote at the last election the 3cp vote was 33.67 to the liberals 33.48 to labor and 32.48 to greens. The next time the greens will most likely make top two and square off against one of the two. It will depend on where the liberals direct their preferences if labor are vs them and if they preference greens it will be a problem for labor. It would be a good idea to as it would force labor to expend more resources here given a hung parliament is veey likely

There are three things to remember about Macnamara last time:
1. Caulfield and the ‘Parks’ are upper middle class areas – these are the types of areas that disliked Scott Morrison the most.
2. The Liberal candidate – if I recall – was endorsed late after another candidate dropped out. She turned out to be a real dud – anti climate change and supported Katherine Deves.
3. The Greens thought they were on a winner and poured lots of resources into the seat. Steph Hodgins-May ran in 2019 as well and would have had some name recognition.

There were probably a lot of Liberal voters who voted Green rather than Labor but then followed the card. Also, the Liberal vote may have gone as low as it possibly could.

@redistributed agreed but this time four things will happen
1. Firstly they will probably lose caufield in exhcnage for south yarra and windsor
2. the increased green vote will push them into the 2pp
3. morrison is no longer the leader and will most likely exit parliament
4. this time around cost of living will be the main concern of voters

A couple of things
1. I would describe the “Parks” as an elite area rather than Upper Middle Class same with the part of South Yarra in this seat and Caulfield north. Caulfield East is more middle class though
2. While Morrison is no longer leader and may not be in parliament. Dutton would be even more hated among this demographic than Morrison it was his challenge to Turnbull in August 2018 that led to a chain of events where the Libs are today also his past comments on Sudanese gangs, White farmers in South Africa etc will not go down well here and Labor would use this against him in seats like this Boothby, Higgins etc.
3. Cost of Living will be more important is mortgage belt seats such as La Trobe, McEwen than extremely wealthy voters in the Parks etc. These voters have the luxury to look at post material issues.

If the boundaries change with Caulfield out and more of South Yarra and Prahran in it is definitely Game On for the Greens. The boundaries now reflect the pre-occupation of the ALP with holding on to the seat rather than any rationality. Michael Danby and Josh Burns have both mobilised the Jewish community to lobby for a seat with a substantial ‘Jewish’ interest. It has worked at the last two redistributions but surely can’t be sustainable for much longer.

On the other hand Caulfield could come out and Elsternwick and other parts of Goldstein could come in.

I still believe that Kooyong will take a bit of Higgins and the Commission will want all of Stonnington in as well as Caulfield making Dandenong Rd as the spine for the seat. This will force McNamara south

@niamlan im not suggesting liberal would be a chance in the new macanamara in fact im sure it will be lab vs green. however the transfer of caufield to higgins will help the liberals there. if the liberals strategically preference the greens not just here but everywhere it forces labor to expend resources fighting the greens and that diverts resources from other seats. also given the next election labor will lose seats elsewhere it could help keep them to minority even if they gain others

@ John
I agree if Caulfield is transferred to Higgins it will help the Libs in Higgins especially if Frydenburg runs (i note Nikki Savva said she does not believe he will run) or they have a very good candidate i have always said it is easier for the Libs to defeat Labor than a Teal so i am with you on that point. I agree if the Libs preference Greens in Macnamara and finish 3rd then Labor is gone but that would be a controversial decision within the Liberal especially for the rank and file even if it does force them to spend resources like you said.