Macnamara – Australia 2022

The PM has appointed Jillian Segal has first appointed envoy to combat Antisemitism.

It’s very interesting to see that Caulfield, Caulfield North and Caulfield South are not only very Jewish but Judaism is actually the largest religion in all three of those suburbs.

Caulfield is the most Jewish suburb of Australia, with Jews making up a massive 41.4% of the suburb’s residents, despite Jews only making up 0.7% of Victoria’s population and just 0.4% of Australia’s population. Furthermore, 8.1% of Caulfield residents nominated “Jewish” as their nationality (compared to 0.2% of Victoria and 0.1% of Australia).

The Jews in the Caulfield area seem to be predominantly Polish, with 8.4% of Caulfield being Polish by nationality. Russian is the most spoken language other than English in Caulfield, with 5.2% speaking Russian, while 4.1% speak Hebrew. The most common country of birth other than Australia is South Africa at 5.7% followed by Israel at 2.8%.

I always knew Caulfield had a LOT of Jews but I never thought it was 40%.

By the way, the most Muslim suburb in Australia is Lakemba in Sydney where 41.6% of residents are Muslims (mostly Lebanese Muslims and to a lesser extent Bangladeshi Muslims).

What’s the most Jewish suburb of Sydney? Is it Vaucluse, where 19.8% of the population is Jewish?

I think Dover heights – 49.9% Jewish… followed by Rose bay (29%)

49.9% is HUGE. That’s even more than Caulfield!

There’s some suggestion that pro-Israel and/or Jewish Liberal voters would tactically vote Labor, to stop the Greens from winning this. This follows the near miss in 2022. I sense a personal vote for Josh Burns following local antisemitism.

There were rumours at the last two elections (take it with a grain of salt) that Mark Dreyfus was going to retire. Labor may want him in cabinet for the next election. His departure might fracture the Jewish vote.

@Nether Portal, in Lakemba, a lot of businesses and organisations are Arabic-dominated but the most common sources of migrants are Bangladesh, Pakistan and India as well as Myanmar (a source of Rohingya Muslims). The South Asian population boomed from the 2010s. It was Little Lebanon back in the 2000s and earlier.

I think the most ethnically diverse suburb would probably be Auburn with large Chinese, Muslim and Nepalese communities with in fact no Anglo groups in the top five largest ancestry

@NP, Lakemba is 61.2% Muslim and they used to be Lebanese but is now main South Asian Muslims.

The suburb of St Kilda East is split over two LGAs which roughly half in Port Phillip and half in Glen Eira. While the Port Phillip half of St Kilda East is only 11% Jewish (roughly the same as Balaclava), the Glen Eira half of St Kilda East is a whopping 56% Jewish. If it was its own suburb, it would be by far the most Jewish in Australia, even moreso than neighbouring Caulfield & Caulfield North.

(The ABS actually puts the Glen Eira half of St Kilda East into the ‘Caulfield – North’ SA2, whereas the ‘St Kilda East’ SA2 is actually the Port Phillip half combined with Balaclava).

@ Trent
Dover Heights Jewish population has slowly increased over the years so may end up being Jewish majority. Also if we compare Bondi to St Kilda, The Bondi area still has a significant Jewish community and North Bondi is 22% Jewish which is huge compared to Greater Sydney.It is interesting that areas like Mosman, Manly, Clontarf etc has virtually no Jews despite being the same in property prices, SES and having Harbourfront and Surf beaches.

How did this seat go from almost being won by the Liberals in 2016 to being a safe Labor seat that Josh Burns has to campaign heavily against the Greens (more so than the Liberals) to hold on in 2024/25?

@ Nether Portal
Dumping Turnbull and moving further to the rights. It is my honest opinion that had Turnbull still led the party to the 2019 election and Danby was the candiate the Libs would have won it with a good Jewish candiate.

@Nimalan do you think Josh Burns could’ve ran for the Liberals if Turnbull was still leader? He has moderate views and is part of the Labor Right faction.

@nimalan although if turnbull had stil been leader in 2019 hed of lost other seats to shorten and be out fo govt.

@ NP
I dont think he could have run for the Liberals because he is more Old Labor sort of person. He was a member of the Jewish Labor Bund. But i am sure, there there others who could have ran. Gideon Rozner is possibly one and he is Jewish. In a seat like this they would like someone with a right wing foreign policy, economic Liberalism but Pro-environment.

the fact that labor are now in govt is gonna hurt them agin on the primary vote whihc they wil likely shed to the greens and maybe a bit to the libs. unless as you say people decide to tactically vote labor.

@ John
That what i just posted on the Wills thread, tactical voting is Josh Burns best bet. In a closely knit community it is easier to achieve.

Mcnamara was never a seat to be won by the liberals. The one election they polled well in was because Mr Danby. Now it is between Labor and the Greens. The 3 parties could each poll 33% of the vote though. The Caulfield tail has a better community of interest with another nearby seat.

@nimalan its his only bet. without it he wont make the 2cp

@ MQ
I agree that Danby was deeply unpopular outside Caulfield but the seat is gentrifying and the Liberals were getting close to winning the state seat of Albert Park as well where Danby is not an issue.

@Nimalan do you think a moderate leader like Pesutto can win Albert Park? He would have to win over voters in areas like Port Melbourne and the southern half of Docklands to win it.

Also why was Danby so deeply unpopular?

@ Nether Portal
i think a moderate leader like Pesutto can win Albert Park over two elections but not one, Seats like Kew, Hawthorn,Brighton and Sandringham have to be on double digits first. They will need to demonstrate that they are economically right wing and not obsessed about culture wars. Probably a seat for the second term
Danby was unpopular among the left-wing because he was seen as very right-wing on Foreign policy a bit like James Paterson, Andrew Hastie. That is not really much of an issue among Liberal voters here but more among some of the left of the Labor party and the Greens.

Will seats like this (and other small-l-liberal/teal seats for that matter), especially with this being in Melbourne, swing hard against the Liberals because of Dutton’s role in the ousting of Turnbull and moving the party further rightwards? Cost of living doesn’t have as much of an affect in affluent areas like these type of seats and Dutton is particularly unpopular around here, but Turnbull did well in these type of seats.

I know these seats swung against the Liberals in 2019 (contrary to the rest of the country) and in 2022 (inline with the rest of the mainland) but could they swing double digits over Dutton ousting Turnbull? Or is Albo too unpopular even in the cities?

@ NP
Possibly the Dutton is deeply unpopular in such demographics. As you said COL does not have a major impact in such seats. I think Albo will less unpopular in areas like this compared to growth areas/mortgage belt. The Voice and Climate action are popular here. The only demographic that Dutton is probably liked is Jewish voters due to support for a Hawkish foreign policy. Dutton scrapping 2030 targets will not go down well in areas like this. If Dutton loses some non Jewish voters to Greens here it will be ALP V GRN along with tactical voting to Stop the Greens winning it.

Double digits? Probably not.

No chance this seat turns blue, but I reckon most of the Turnbull related swings would’ve been released over the last 2 elections.

@NP
Albo is unpopular in these type seats for not doing enough. It might cost Labor primary votes but they would come back to Labor on preferences well before going anywhere near a Dutton lead Liberals.

Yeah i agree not double digits missed that part. Among Non-Jewish voters in Macnamara could see a 1-2% decrease or even a slight LIB to GRN swing. The more important thing is how makes the 2CP and tactical voting.

2016 was unique because it was a perfect storm of two things:
– The most progressive Liberal leader in a generation;
– Michael Danby at the absolute lowest of his popularity that had continuously tanked

A lot of Labor voters just couldn’t vote for Michael Danby, he was incredibly unpopular. In most elections, that would likely have just seen a strong ALP to GRN swing; but coupled with Turnbull bringing the promise of having a more centrist “mandate” and shifting the Liberal Party to the political centre if he won, I think the swing against Labor was distributed pretty evenly between the Greens & Liberals, because Turnbull’s Liberals were seen as a viable alternative.

What has happened since was not just the dumping of Turnbull causing a one-off backlash, but his inability to turn the party around after winning the 2016 election and especially now the shift even further right from Morrison to Dutton has signified that the Liberal Party moving to the centre is a lost cause, and I think their brand is damaged long term here.

On Albanese, I don’t think him or the Labor brand are as unpopular or damaged here as they perhaps are in other parts of the country. Two things indicate this:
1. Macnamara had one of the highest ‘Yes’ votes for the Voice, so the theory that the Voice damaged Albanese would not be a factor here;
2. Port Phillip is one of the only VIC councils where Labor endorsed candidates and have used very visible branding as a selling point. This indicates they are confident in their brand here.

I also think Josh Burns is reasonably well liked. Labor’s problem here is the numbers. As discussed previously, the smallest swing against them to EITHER the Greens or Liberals would see them drop out of the 2CP.

Nimalan is right that tactical voting among anti-Greens Jewish voters, if they are convinced that the Liberals have no chance so voting Labor is the only way to avoid having a Greens MP, is Burns’ best chance of retaining the seat.

I’ll also say, and I’ve said this many times before, that while Macnamara has a significant Jewish population, it is still only 12%, and that 12% is where the Liberal vote is already by far the strongest. So I do think the importance of the Jewish vote is very much overrated, although as I mentioned above, a tactical LIB to ALP swing among that cohort could be decisive this time in keeping Labor in the 2CP.

Regarding the seat of Albert Park, they would be more receptive to Pesutto than Guy, but I still don’t they have a realistic chance because it’s not just about the leader, it’s just that the existing demographics here have shifted to the left over the last decade in general, and the demographic changes that come with the development patterns also favour the progressive side.

What I’d say about Albert Park is that Labor may lose their double-digit margin but I can’t see the Liberals getting it back under 5%; however if the boundaries changed and St Kilda was removed, it would become much more marginal.

@NP, regarding if Pesutto can win Albert Park maybe not under current boundaries (except maybe on a landslide) as the seat contains St Kilda which is a Green strongholds.

@Marh that’s exactly my take too.

In the last 2 elections, Labor have won the 2PP in every polling place quite comfortable (I think only Middle Park was under 55%). But if everything goes right for the Liberals and wrong for Labor – eg. Pesutto stays leader, unites the party, they lead comfortably statewide, and Labor’s polling continues to decline – I could see the results looking more like:
* A 50-55% LIB 2PP across Port Melbourne, Albert Park, Middle Park & the postal vote
* A 55-60% ALP 2PP across South Melbourne, Docklands & Southbank (maybe a bit higher in Southbank)

That would be a very marginal contest that is winnable for the Liberals… Without St Kilda.

Once you add a 70-75% (or even 65-70%) ALP 2PP in St Kilda, it’s hard to see the Libs getting that margin back under 5%.

The original draft boundaries from the 2021 redistribution could have made Albert Park competitive at the next election.

That proposal removed all of St Kilda from Albert Park and replaced it with the ‘Domain’ precinct (the affluent ‘South Yarra – West’ area between Punt & St Kilda Road) from Prahran.

Those boundaries would have increased Prahran’s Greens vote even more, but actually risked bumping the Liberals to third place and making it a marginal ALP v GRN contest rather than a very safe GRN v LIB one, because the Domain area is the Liberals’ strongest part of Prahran while St Kilda is their weakest.

@ Trent
Yeah Domain area i think will be quite Tealish demographically and is very posh especially outside new Anzac Metro station. Most apartments are luxury ones there.

Agree. They all look like very large apartments with sweeping views of the city, bay & Albert Park Lake, proximity to some of the city’s best parks, etc. Quite different to the types of apartments more common in Southbank, Docklands, or even the South Yarra ones closer to Chapel St.

Looking at the 2022 that area wasn’t actually the Liberals’ best part of Prahran – the area around Hawksburn Village & Orrong was a little better – but it was next best and they still got 28% and 31% at the two nearest polling places.

By comparison, one of the St Kilda polling places had a 52% Greens vote and 12% Liberal vote! The ALP vote averaged roughly double the LIB vote across St Kilda (in both seats) but Labor came third around South Yarra. So I think that swap would definitely have had a significant impact on both seats, if it went ahead.

This seat is probably one of the most fascinating seats to watch in the next election, particularly with each side possibly having a red-hot shot at winning (in reality, moreso Labor and Green rather than Liberal but it’s always fun to speculate).

You have the solid conservative Liberal/Jewish areas around Caulfield who’d voted Liberal even if the sun rose from the west but if they really wanted their voices heard, they’d realise that continuing to vote for the Liberals = Greens MP, which is probably their worst nightmare so they’d probably prefer to put Burns ahead of whoever is running for the Liberals and of course the Greens.

However, what’s fascinating is that there is apparently a whole lot of new voters that have moved into the electorate, most of which have settled around the Melbourne Square Development which equates to an entire suburb itself in some ways. Given that there is a lot of renters and inner-city demo to the west of Chapel Street I would be very surprised if the Liberals had any chance of winning based on that alone, and it’s going to prove tricky for Labor to please both sides of the electorate that are about as far away from each other as they possibly can be politically. That said, with the redistribution of South Yarra and half of Prahran into Melbourne and Kooyong, it does weaken the strength of the Greens vote by a smidgen, but the addition of Windsor might balance it out a bit.

Either way, a seat to watch for the next election.

Will this ever cross the river to include the other half of Docklands or is it more likely that Melbourne will cross the Yarra River to get the Macnamara half of Docklands?

Think the river crossing will disappear once the parliament expands

I think it’s more likely that the Docklands / South Wharf (and potentially parts of Southbank) area gets transferred into Melbourne, than anything north of the river being transferred into Macnamara.

It really wouldn’t make any sense to separate Docklands from the CBD, whereas it makes perfect sense uniting Docklands, South Wharf and Southbank with the CBD. Or at the very least, uniting Macnamara’s tiny portion of Docklands with the rest of it in Melbourne!

If the river crossing at South Yarra remains in place after the next redistribution, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is at least a swap that transfers the Docklands / South Wharf area into Melbourne in exchange for putting Prahran in Macnamara to unite it with Windsor. That one is just so logical.

Southbank should have been transferred to Melbourne at the redistribution just gone. It’s almost farcical that it wasn’t and South Yarra and Prahan were instead. It seemed as though the committee had no knowledge of this area at all.

Totally agree Adam! It’s like they have never actually set foot in the South Wharf / Southbank area before.

One of my best friends lived in the portion of Docklands south of the river that is in Macnamara for a while. Coming from the inner-south (within Port Phillip) myself to visit, was extremely difficult. That pocket of Docklands is almost entirely cut off by physical barriers from everything surrounding it on that side: South Melbourne, Port Melbourne, etc. It’s difficult by foot, there’s no public transport connections, and even difficult by car. By contrast, there’s a convenient pedestrian-only footbridge directly connecting it with the rest of Docklands and the CBD north of the river.

Whoever thought Prahran was better to connected to the north of the river than that area, has clearly never been to either place!

Because theyused the idiotic approach