Mackellar – Australia 2022

LIB 13.2%

Incumbent MP
Jason Falinski, since 2016.

Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. Mackellar covers Pittwater council area and a majority of the Warringah council area. Major suburbs include Dee Why, Collaroy, Narrabeen, Mona Vale, Avalon and Frenchs Forest.

History
Mackellar was created in 1949 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been won by the Liberal Party with substantial margins.

The seat was first won in 1949 by William Wentworth, grandson of colonial political figure William Charles Wentworth. Wentworth had previously polled 20% of the vote in the seat of Wentworth (named after his grandfather) as an independent in 1943.

Wentworth was a leading red-baiter in Parliament during the 1950s, although he remained in Parliament for almost two decades after winning Mackellar. He was close to John Gorton, and when Gorton became Prime Minister in early 1968 he appointed Wentworth to cabinet as the first ever federal minister with responsibility for Aboriginal affairs. Wentworth remained on the frontbench under Billy McMahon and served in the ministry until McMahon’s defeat in 1972.

Wentworth announced his retirement in 1977, but didn’t wait for the election to resign from the Liberal Party, after returning to the role of outspoken backbench rebel during the first term of the Fraser government. He ran as an independent for the Senate in 1977 and polled 2%.

Wentworth was succeeded in Mackellar by Liberal candidate Jim Carlton, who had served as the state party’s General Secretary during the 1970s. Carlton served as a minister in the final year of the Fraser government, and was a frontbencher in the Liberal opposition from the Hawke government’s election in 1983 until the 1990 election. Carlton retired from Parliament in 1994.

The ensuing by-election was won by sitting Senator and Liberal frontbencher Bronwyn Bishop. Bishop had been a  Senator for New South Wales since 1987, and had been a prominent Opposition frontbencher, and had been discussed as a possible leadership contender. She played a prominent role in the opposition frontbench after winning the by-election, but her colleagues did not share her assessment of her leadership potential, and she was passed over in favour of first Alexander Downer and then John Howard.

Bishop was re-elected to seven full terms from 1996 to 2013. Bishop was appointed to a junior ministerial role after the election of the Howard government in 1996. She was dropped from the ministry after the 2001 election after a controversial tenure as Minister for Ageing. She was elected Speaker after the 2013 election, but was forced to step down in August 2015 after criticisms over extravagant travel expenses.

Bishop lost Liberal preselection to Jason Falinski in 2016. Falinski won Mackellar in 2016 and was re-elected in 2019.

Candidates

Assessment
Mackellar is traditionally a safe Liberal seat, but in current circumstances the Liberals appear to be losing ground in seats like this, and a strong independent in the form of Sophie Scamps appears to be doing well here. She would need to cut down the Liberal primary vote significantly to win, and it’s probably harder to do that here than in some other seats further south.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jason Falinski Liberal 52,088 53.0 +1.8
Declan Steele Labor 16,648 16.9 -0.4
Alice Thompson Independent 11,975 12.2 +12.2
Pru Wawn Greens 11,283 11.5 -2.6
Suzanne Daly Sustainable Australia 2,550 2.6 +2.6
David Lyon United Australia Party 2,317 2.4 +2.4
Greg Levett Christian Democratic Party 1,401 1.4 -1.1
Informal 4,857 4.7 -0.6

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jason Falinski Liberal 62,124 63.2 -2.5
Declan Steele Labor 36,138 36.8 +2.5

Booth breakdown

Mackellar covers all of the former Pittwater council area and a majority of the former Warringah council area, all now contained in the Northern Beaches council area. All of the polling places in the Pittwater area have been grouped together as “north”. Those in Warringah have been split between “south-east” on the coast and “west” further inland.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.4% in the north to 66.6% in the west.

Independent candidate Alice Thompson came third, with 16.5% in the north and just over 11% in the south-east and west.

The Greens came fourth, with a primary vote ranging from 9.3% in the west to 13.5% in the north.

Voter group IND prim GRN prim LIB 2PP Total votes % of votes
North 16.5 13.5 60.4 23,719 24.1
South-East 11.3 11.0 61.3 22,552 23.0
West 11.1 9.3 66.6 14,105 14.4
Pre-poll 11.4 10.8 65.0 26,337 26.8
Other votes 8.0 12.4 64.8 11,549 11.8

Election results in Mackellar at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, independent candidate Alice Thompson and the Greens.

Become a Patron!

94 COMMENTS

  1. New UComms polling by Climate 200 for the Scamps campaign reported in the Guardian Australia. 60-40 to Scamps on preferences

    Primaries:

    Falinksi – 32%
    Scamps – 31%
    Labor – 15.5%
    Greens – 8.6%

  2. 32% seems very low, especially considering this teal seat hasn’t been as high profile as the others. That being said I don’t think Falinksi has a big a profile as a frydenburg for example. Even if it’s a single seat poll those numbers seem to suggest there may be a big swing to the independent, whether it’s enough is a different matter.

  4. I find it hard to believe that Falinski would drop 20% pv and the Greens and ALP only 4% combined. Especially as in Warringah and Wentworth their votes just fell away.

  5. In Warringah Tony Abbott’s pv fell 12.5% and the Lib vote in Wentworth by 14.8%. Both of those were distinct circumstances that are not happening in Mackellar.

  6. Just had a deeper look into that poll. It is a really weak one, only 834 in the sample. For me, a 20% Primary Vote is way too big of a drop. The fact that it was commissioned by Climate 200 makes it sound really weird.

    If you were that confident, you wouldn’t release that result.

    Couple of things have happened and that i have discovered:
    1. The corflute situation is getting ridiculous, in terms of vandalism. Scamps having been labeled a derogatry expletive and Falinski Corflutes giving him Hitler’s moustache and Swatstikas being drawn on him as well. Given Scamp’s gender and Falinski’s heritage, this is getting disgusting.
    2. Out of no-where, there are UAP Corflutes all over Mona Vale. Dunno where that came from.
    3. I did see those fake Scamps Corflutes with the Greens sticker on them, around the Wakehurst Parkway. I’ve had confirmation they were done by Advance Australia.
    4. Was walking my daughter to school when 3 of the Scamps supporters got right up in our faces and scared her with their banner waving, especially when trying to cross the road. To their credit, the organiser there was apologetic and told me that they had issues with the 3 people before and would be disciplined and was really good about it so full credit to them. But I did discover that a lot of people working on the ground there are ex Labor and Greens Operatives from all over the North Shore and Northern Beaches. Not surprising TBH.
    5. Those from the Right of the Liberal Party have abandoned Falinski and are focusing their efforts elsewhere, I believe up in Robertson and Dobell. Not only that but a couple of the Liberal Councillors have been getting quite nasty on the campaign trail and have attempted to implicate the Mayor of NBC as part of the Scamps Campaign.

    Getting really testy up here atm.

  7. Robertson is probably the second seat after Reid to be won by labor . But dobell will remain Labor

  8. Seems the cops have been called a few times to the Prepoll for Mackellar. Some animosity between the groups it appears. Presume the usual blame the other side excuses will come out.

  11. Haha would be even more hilarious if it turns out the one bedroom flat she rented in Liverpool is just sitting empty and she was living in Scotland Island the whole time.

  12. Well I thought this seat falling to the teals was a surprise. I could see North Sydney, Wentworth, Kooyong, Goldstein and Curtin falling but for this seat I thought it was a bit of a stretch especially since this seat isn’t really undergoing the same demographic changes to the same extent as the other aforementioned seats.

  13. Whilst it was clear during the campaign that this one WAS in play; it was also the outlier in that the 3 other Sydney seats that fell to Teals all had histories of being won (and held) by Independents at Fed and/or State level. It will also be the hardest to defend, even moreso than Wentworth. Should the Teals gain some “runs on the board” then they certainly could hold but if anything, I’d possibly see Bradfield falling before Mackellar holding (esp if there’s any tinkering with boundaries).

  14. The state seat of Pittwater had independent MPs albeit for less than a term each.

    I was surprised that so many Liberal seats fell to independents and Greens. Mackeller was the most surprising because it’s the teal seat that’s furthest from a capital city CBD.

    Most likely it’ll expand westwards at the next redistribution.

  16. Knew Manly was held by LAB during Wran era along with Peter McDonald & David Barr (multiple term Indies) as well as Warringah’s history of electing non-endorsed party candidates (Percy Spender).

    Thought LAB may’ve held one state seat on the peninsula during Wran years but wasn’t sure which. Remembered McTaggart but the history of the area does bear out that in comparison to Warringah & Nth Sydney; this is “tougher turf”.

  18. State seat of Willoughby straddles the northern boundary of North Sydney/southern boundary of Bradfield. Interesting to see how it plays out in the state election as the 2PP figures for much of the seat (both LIB/ALP & LIB/Teal) were ugly.

  19. Rob Stokes the former member of Pittwater that overlaps a big chunk of the federal electorate of Mackellar is considering a tilt of running against Sophie Scamps meaning it might be a interesting contest

  21. I think they can too the onpy places they probably cant win against the teàls is warringah wentworth indi and probably goldstein at least this time around.

  22. In the Saturday Paper of 3 August they reported polling that the Teals were at risk in Mackellar, Goldstein, Curtin and Kooyong. The article was not very substantive and was more about campaign funding. Goldstein and Mackellar were the surprises for me there. If Rob Stokes did run, he would surely be in a with a good chance. Sophie Scamps seems to have a lower profile than other Teals but that might not be the case inside her electrorate. I wonder if the Mackellar vote last time was influenced by Jason Falinski – I didn’t know much about him but he popped up on TV a few times leading up the election and came across as a big buffoon. I wonder if that was the impression he gave in the electorate and it turned voters off.

  23. Mackellar has less Teal Friendly demographics than Warringah with lower levels of education (32.9% compared to 47.9% in Warringah), older age structure (43 compared to 40 in Warringah) and almost voted No to the Voice (49.2% No compared to 40.5% No in Warringah)

  24. John i think you forgot to include Mayo in south australia as another one of the seats liberal party won’t win back and i guess it still remains to be seen if Ryan and Brisbane will flip back to the LNP at the next election whenever it happens this year or next year and Mackellar is the last seat where the liberal party is still yet to preselect a candidate

  25. Ben mayo isn’t really a teal seat and is not a safe liberal seat. In fact on 2pp terms it’s Labor ATM so they might be better served with her there and unlike the teals they have no real change on unseating rr even in minority govt because she’s said she will back the party with most seats unlike the teals who will vote on ideological lines so I think sharkie is safe. In regards to the greens seats they are also Labor on 2pp so the way to win those is to win the 2pp if they win the 2pp there they should flip back

  26. Mayo is held by Rebekha Sharkie who is a member of the Centre Alliance, a centrist party that only exists in South Australia. It was founded by Senator Nick Xenophon as the Nick Xenophon Team. Sharkie has held Mayo since 2016. Before that it was a Liberal heartland and it was the seat Alexander Downer represented.

  27. Mayo takes in the Adelaide Hills, the Barossa Valley, the Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island. Its main population is the city of Mount Barker in the Adelaide Hills.

  30. If the teals were to lose those seats to the libs then they would be in the box seat to form govt whether in majority or minority. In my opinion Labor will need about 6-8 votes to govern after the election and that’s not counting any seats they lose to the greens. I’m putting Labor’s losses anywhere between 8-12 to the coalition. So let’s say AVG of 10. That puts them on 68 seats and the coalition on 68. If te coalition took those seats they’d be on 72. But I’m not including any potential greens gains from Labor or libs from greens. Those teal seats are pretty all that stand between Dutton and the lodge.

  31. The existence of teal held seats is a existential problem for the libs. In other times the teals would have won liberal pre-election buy now the voters in those electorates have decided the liberal party candidates are unacceptable. I suspect most if not all will be reelected. Labor could lose their absolute majority as it is only 3 seats. But governments usually get a second term and this has been the case since 1946. I think talk of Labor losing 10 odd seats is exaggerated massively.

  32. @mick since about 1932. Scullin was the last one term govt. It wasn’t a complete rejection of the liberals I think it was just a rejection of the govt and acomo. I agree on the Labor etting a second term it is highly likely they will get a second term but even Labor can’t see a way to offset their loses and have begun to accept minority govt as the likely outcome which is why they are holding off the election. But the. Longer they leave it the worse it’s gonna get. Losing 10 seats isnt that preposterous they lost 11 in 2010.

  34. Mackeller will expand south post redistribution. This boosts the notional teal 2PP but bear in mind, Zali’s personal vote was embedded into the teal 2PP. Her personal vote was much stronger even at her first election than the other teals were at their first.

  35. Mackellar is not that much under quota so it will barely increase her margin. Warringah however will be about 25% under so will need to move into NS by about 1/3 of its current electors.

    In regards to fixed term that would require a referendum and I think albo wasted people’s appetites on his failed voice

  36. The other liberal preselection candidate in mackellar is turnbull’s former son in law who might get tasked in taking on Sophie scamps if he wins liberal preselection for the seat

  37. Following the discussion on the Boothby thread i wanted to do a comparison between Mackellar and Cook. Booth seats have much in common. They are largely Anglo areas with a surfer boy culture beautiful beaches, affluent, both economically right wing and often the setting of many teen drama shows. In some ways that is where the comparison ends and the differences start.

    Comparision for SSM
    1. Cook 55.04%. This was actually lower than the state and national average. In fact it was the lowest for a capital city Anglo seat. Only seat that were lower were either Regional or CALD seats. In fact Cook was lower than regional seats such as Wide Bay, O’Connor, Farrer and Dawson or CALD seats such as Menzies, Hotham and Lalor.
    2. Mackellar-68.01%-way above the national and state average.

    Voice referendum 2022 Boundaries for both seats
    1. Mackellar-50.84% Yes while low for a Teal seat was still way above national and statewide average. It was of the few seats that voted more for the Voice than the Republic in 1999. One of only two seats that rejected the Republic in 1999 which voted for the voice the other one being Newcastle.
    2. Cook- 36.27% Yes below state and national average and lower than poorer seats such as Blaxland, Gorton and Scullin.

    Republic Referendum in 1999 adjusted to 2022 boundaries
    1. Mackellar-50.31% No better than state and national averages but gap is only 3-5% respectively.
    2. Cook-53.05% No- back then it was actually slightly better than state and national averages! but only by 0.5%-1.5%

    The Gap between the two seats in 1999 was only 2.74% for the Republic
    in 2017 12.97% for SSM
    in 2024 14.57% for the voice

    I reckon if there is another Republic referendum say in 2029 the gap will be even wider. It goes to my point that someone like Tony Abbott today will fit much better here the Northern Beaches. Cook is trending right wing socially.

  38. What is that has caused the Upper Northern Beaches to trend progressive but the Sutherland Shire to trend conservative? On the surface, the two areas seem very similar. (Or am I ignorant?)

  39. @Nimalan looking at Cook the only booth that voted Yes in the referendum was Kirrawee where the Liberal TPP at the last federal election was only 53.3% (there was a –11.0% swing against Scomo in this booth though). The Liberal primary in 2022 was 46.4% (–8.7%), Labor got 28.0% (+3.5%), the Greens got 16.1% (+5.9%), the UAP got 6.0% (+3.8%) and One Nation got 3.6% (–1.9%). The Yes vote in Kirrawee was 53.4%. The only other booth that voted Yes was Special Hospital Team 1 (which voted 58.4% Yes).

    However, Cronulla Central only voted No by a margin of two votes (50.1% No). Similarly, the Haymarket PPVC also voted No by a two vote margin.

  40. @Nicholas the Shire is more middle-class and in general less progressive than the Northern Beaches and the North Shore.

  41. @ Nether Portal
    Good point about the booths. But if we compare Cronulla Central to Manly it still a big difference. Both areas have apartments etc and some young renters.
    Nicholas asked a question above which i dont know the answer to. I would also add both the Shire and the Northern Beaches have an NRL team as well. Both areas have a sense of localism Why do you feel they are diverging?

  42. Maybe religion is a difference Northern Beaches is 50.1% Christian while the Shire is 61.1% importantly both areas have very low % of people who practice a minority religion which is in part why the Christian % is higher.

    Northern Beaches 81% speak English at home
    Sutherland Shire 82.9% speak English at home
    pretty much identical

  44. Forgot to post but James Brown, a former soldier and former NSW RSL president, was preselected as the Liberal candidate for Mackellar last weekend.

« Older Comments

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here