Longman – Australia 2022

I hear Terry Young is popular here, and there has been no news or talk about Susan Lambs plans.

If Lamb declines then this should swing to the LNP, Lamb won’t win but if she runs she could get a tiny swing to her but it’s going to be hard to defeat Young because he is no Wyatt Roy. I expect him to get PHON preferences unlike Roy.

This is definitely essential for a Labor victory which won’t happen, But I believe Brisbane,Dickson and Leichhardt will fall before this does under the current circumstances.

Young to be re-elected, He is popular. I’d like to hear Andrew Jacksons opinion on Terry Young if he’s around since he is the only one on here that lives in Longman that I know of.

@Daniel

I don’t think Susan Lamb will be contesting again. It was reported that she has moved out of the electorate.

The ALP candidate for Longman is Rebecca Fanning.
https://twitter.com/albomp/status/1393763595092070401

It seems to me like Labor’s 2016 win here was a mere fluke/protest vote, and the 2018 byelection was retained by ALP solely because Section 44 was BS. Seats like Dickson and Petrie seem more winnable for Labor than here.

Labor got a nice state election pick up here, but I’m not seeing the 2016 ALP voters that switched back to LNP in 2019 voting Labor now.

I think Labor’s best hope in Queensland is the Greens in Brisbane and Ryan

@John

John your comment ‘Labor’s best hope in Queensland is the Greens in Brisbane and Ryan’ is rubbish. Even the Greens themselves have listed their best chance in QLD is Griffith which is attempting to take off a seat from Labor. I predict the Greens won’t get in the final two party preferred vote in a seat in QLD.

Its not all doom and gloom for Labor in Queensland. A Newspoll suggested there had been a 5% swing for Labor in QLD and its now 53-47 in favor of the Liberals which if happened on unified state swing Labor would win Longman.

It would have to be unified swing though, and the incumbent in Longman will likely have the benefit of a sophomore surge. Newspoll has been wrong before like it was last election and because the state of QLD is so decentralised statewide trends tend to be more unpredictable. Simply Labor can’t afford to go further backwards in QLD and will hoping that last election was the low point and their will be somewhat a correction swing.

Where the One Nation vote goes will likely decide the seat.

Daniel
Thanks for request.
I agree Terry Young has very little of the opposition that Wyatt Roy attracted. His problem is that he is nearly invisible. Local Papers have gone and this makes job of communicating with the electorate much more difficult. Terry Young has distributed a couple of newsletters and done a survey of voters views. My inclination is that Longman will go the same way as Queensland as a whole. COVID 19 Makes any prediction a brave one. So far there has been no labor campaign and the only rumours that I’ve heard is that one of the defeated mayoral candidates might make a stand as an independent. However as this individual was soundly beaten by our mayor I doubt if he could even Man polling booths.
Unless things go horribly wrong I’m inclined to think that the government will be returned nationally but it’s not inconceivable that Albanese Will be able to win. My prediction is no elections till April next year when there are a couple of dates available.
When I see any activity in Brisbane Northern fringe I will report.
Campbell Newman’s defection to Lib Dems will me sure I put that part down with Greens and Pauline Hanson below the majors.
in the Senate Katter has lost all interest outside of NQ which means he would need to poll 50% in every seat in NQ to get a statewide Senate Quota.

Andrew
I think Covid will be the key here. Now the LNP heartland has always bee nt e retirement people on Bribie but this is a group that wants lock downs and will not be so keen on the Morrison free for all, despite highish levels of vaccination.

Even the One Nation types and anti lockdowners may do a double take if as is now likely Covid takes hold and they start to see friends and loved ones getting very sick and even dying.

Also parents of young children. There is little likelihood of a vaccine for this group before the next election and i think we will see a lot of very frightened parents. Childcare centres will close and many parents will leave the workforce or enlist their parents (ie the residents of Bribie) to care for their little ones. To protect the little ones a lot of normal social activities for the residents will end.

The other factor which will affect votes in this electorate may be an anti NSW sentiment.

That’s exactly what happened at the state election last year. Seats with high retiree populations and formerly high One Nation votes swung hard to Labor.

Ryan
Yes the real issue will be the extent to which higher vaccination levels give more confidence. However Qld recent experience with the outbreak in a primary school (and the two most prestigious private schools) may be a factor too.

Covid might also be a factor in Ryan where Qld’s recent COVID outbreak was concentrated. I am inclined to the view that Ryan is the greens best hope, because there is division still within the local LNP, there is a new development planned which will anger the locals, especially those associated with the council as Simmonds is and i am told a good active greens candidate. Now the ALP is also re-running a now well known candidate(Peter Cosser) and is in with a chance, based on the last election. However the seat is a now classic three way. Much will depend on where disaffected LNP voters go – to ALP or Greens.

In theory Brisbane may be a better Greens target but a much more compatible LNP candidate will make it harder to win for them.

Maverick
Really !? “I think Covid will be the key here.” Really.?. Morrison’s “Free for all” !? Really !?
What is the overseas experience ?

The Resolve poll from the SMH actually has the Coalition holding up surprisingly well. Quite apart from my issues with their methodology, I tend to think this is an outlier. That said, maybe we shouldn’t be too quick to jump on the narrative that the vaccination and lockdown will terminally damage the Coalition.

Wine
I am basing my comments on the last Qld state election and i do not think attitudes have changed all that much.

Morrison’s open up now, even with the virus rampaging in NSW I suspect will be unpopular in retirement Qld as well as with parents of young children.

I am not sure what you meant by overseas experience but what i see of it to date would not support opening up early. In the UK for example yesterday there were31,914 cases of COVID, 40 deaths and 6,441 hospitalisations. Translating that figure to Australia would be about 2,500 hospitalisations daily and an annual death toll of about 5,500. In fact the UK death toll has been more like 100/day lately so 5,500 is a very low estimate. i think 2,500 is hospital daily would rapidly overtake our health servicing capacity and we would see older people being denied care.

Israeli experience is also terrible since despite the world’s highest vaccination rates surging infections and the need for a third round of vaccine for everyone over 50.

maverick
Given that we have very different views on the subject. Lets leave it at this —i don’t share your alarm, or apprehension. Extrapolating from a presumed infection case NUMBER that huge is “out there”!!. Glossing over a presumption of reaching that level of infection is ….”Audacious”!!

What has undeniably changed in the last 48 hrs is that Covid has been totally politicised, & positions have been completely polarised. Clearly debate over this issue has become very influential . Crucially NSW seems to be leading, & there seems to be a building expectation of reward for compliance. IMV this will spread & become irresistible .
Quote of the day from an unnamed Lib MP “At the beating heart of the Morrison Govt, there is a focus group !!”. We all constantly bemoan the “INATTENTION” of govt to our opinions, & yet it seems that that they are indeed VERY interested in our views. Consequently i’m amused at your bold, incautious, resolution , in cynically condemning our PM’s first genuine attempt at leadership for many months !!.

So mate what will you criticise him for next ? being led by focus groups, or ( not?) listening to experts ? Or perhaps having some other dark political agenda ? We always laud Hawke, & JWH for connecting with mainstream Australia, where do think the PM has positioned himself, on which side ? For what outcome ?

The coalition will win this 53-47. I suspect there would be a tiny swing away from the LNP here but the sophomore surge should cancel that out so no change for Longman.

Young will likely he the next Mal Brough and hold on for a few terms

Wine
To the extent that this topic will influence the election, my opinions cannot be ignored.

Now I am sorry but exactly how am I being audacious. The UK data is fact, not speculation. Despite very high vaccination rates – 80% of those over 50 there has been a surge in cases so that there were 30,838 cases yesterday (a little lower than Monday) but sadly 142 deaths. The good news that the UK government (and ours) is clinging to is that the rate of hospitalisations has dropped as a share of the cases but despite this there were 6,934 hospitalisations.

So it is in fact very easy to assume that if we open up in the same way as UK, we will have a similar percentage of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Australia is roughly 40% the size of the UK (a little lower) so once we have 70% vaccination of adults we might expect at least the same number of deaths etc ie about 40/day.

Deaths psychologically, especially if mostly amongst the elderly we can probably emotionally cope with, but hospitalisations is another matter and I think that 2,800 daily (roughly 40% of the UK rate) would put a major strain on our hospitals. Now the UK does not publish ICU rates but in NSW about 15% are in ICU. If we allow for triage in a crisis we would be looking at about 10% or added ICU daily ie 280.

Now back to Longman, if you do not think that Qld adding about 56 cases to ICU daily will not affect a particularly vulnerable community (many retirees plus ethnic minorities in the Caboolture area), then I do not know what you think will. The best that the Morrison government would be able to do would be to blame the states, but this might not wash too well if say the state governments call on national resources eg the army to support medical services and they are also too stretched to deliver.

If Morrison goes for an election soon, while the vaccination story is good news, he might get away with it and there could be a swing to the LNP, but the speed of the Delta variant means that if say it gets into Qld early in the election campaign there might well be major problems by the election day.

This is my seat, this will be an LNP hold, Labor won’t make up any ground in Qld as Albo hasn’t had any impact, there has been zero opposition , likely to lose Lilly & Blair, maybe Moreton as well

Maverick
Sorry don’t know what happened to my post/reply. It was comprehensive

Wine
if you replied to me re use of facts then you will need to explain just why we will not follow the UK trajectory. I will list some factors that might change the trajectory.

1. Now given that the UK had a bad first wave and an absolutely terrible second wave, one would expect very high levels of naturally acquired immunity, which should make their effective herd immunity much higher than their vaccination rate. So if anything we are under estimating the infections.

2. Australia is not at the levels of UK to start with, which while it might not change the trajectory may delay it a month or so (enough to get past the election)

3. A third booster shot of vaccine. Yes this is a good strategy but we are quite a way off that

4. The possibility that OUR delta outbreak actually is operating in parallel with the vaccination, so that there is less chance of immunity wearing out – this is in fact a positive hope.

5. Continued use of social distancing and other measures – this will probably be mandated in many states but possibly not in NSW.

6. Approval to vaccinate young children – game changer but not on the horizon just yet.

7. Advances in treatment. Unlike many who are way too optimistic about the success of vaccination, I think that there will be advances in treatment, which if true might greatly reduce the health impact. Just think= a drug tjhat reduces or removes symptomatic illness would be a major game changer. i am hoping.

My comment about the invisibility of Terry Young is just as applicable to ALP. A few months back I searched for an ALP Candidate but could not find one. Yesterday in Courier Mail I saw a mention of an ALP candidate and her Facebook page. On searching for this Facebook page I found that
not only has one been endorsed she has the appearance of being relatively busy at least on Facebook. A Facebook site exists for Rebecca Fanning and another one about LNP Lies in Longman.
Why is it that the Both the ALP And LNP have the time and resources to send out e-mails begging for money but lack the time and resources to keep interested members of public informed about candidates.
Terry Young has distributed a newsletter telling us how much the Government has spent mainly on things that are State responsibilities. However not a whisper about any minor party candidates. Corflutes are banned by Moreton Bay Council until issue of writs. In effect we are under informed.

Does anybody know a thing about this Rebecca Fanning character? I’m a bit of a swinger myself, I’d like to know more about her, because as far as I’ve seen, she’s a nobody?

She is in the medical trade but thats all I know about her

Rebecca Fanning, a health policy expert who worked on the Palaszczuk government’s COVID response. Seriously, though did anyone know the LNP member for Longman before he was elected to parliament? Unless they are state MP/mayor/councilor or they are a celebrity candidate you could probably assert a couple members that got in parliament were nobody’s before they entered as well.

Dennis Atkins hasn’t completely written of Longman for Labor according to his sources. In fact he suggests it maybe one of the seats Labor think they can take back. However, current polling doesn’t mean it will translate like that close to the election though.

“Until that time, Queensland looked like registering no change at the coming election and that was on course to continue despite some euphoric dreaming by the LNP they might pick up Blair and Lilley early this year.

Now Labor is increasingly confident they can pick up two out of three LNP seats up for grabs – Longman on the northern outskirts of Brisbane, Flynn on the Central Coast around Gladstone and Leichhardt, which runs through Cape York from Cairns to the north.”

https://inqld.com.au/politics/2021/10/05/final-barrier-to-pre-christmas-poll-will-be-gone-in-two-weeks-so-will-morrison-jump/

@ Trump 2024, very bold to say they’ll lose Lilly. Labor won’t do worse in Qld than they did last time (albeit they still won’t do well here) Shorten was more despised than Albo. I don’t see Labor picking up any Qld seats but I don’t see them losing any, status quo, which you can’t often say about Qld. Swan retiring hurt Labor in Lilly last time yet they still held it and the current MP is very much out in the community a lot. Lilly also not a great electorate for protest votes either.

Terry Young has done sweet FA for Longman. Accept for giving millions to the Caboolture Sports Club, who really need the money…haha what a joke. Nothing else has been done in Longman since he has been in, accept for federal projects that were already in the works. Rebecca Fanning seems the obvious choice and has been campaigning hard with her grass roots approach. She has my vote and I hope everyone gets on board as we MUST get rid of the lying, corrupt liberals Australia wide.

LNP sign extremely visible on Old Gympie road in Narangba boasting about new local jobs I believe. He needs these signs as he is a first term member and many constituents may not even know him, Indeed there was a couple of people I spoke to early last year who still thought Susan Lamb was their MP.

While billboards don’t necessarily directly guarantee more support they do however get people to look more into their local member and get to know them if they don’t know who their MP is. There is probably something like 3-5% of adults who do not know who their local MP is. and these signs can give info to uniformed people and perhaps win their vote as the incumbent will be more known than the opposing candidate.

I would be confident in saying a Labor gain if Lamb had re-contested as she would have had personal name recognition. But without her Labor probably loses 1-2%. but the question then is can Labor gain 5-6% to offset this and win the seat and if the latest poll is correct (54-46% in QLD for the ALP) then about 10-12 or so seats would flip if uniform. however I would take that poll with a HUGE grain of salt. But if the LNP lose 5-6% state-wide on the TPP then it is unlikely they will hold Longman.

Young should be worried but Labor should never be complacent.

No way LNP are losing any QLD seats, i still think they will win the election!! there is no talk of a swing on & by the time the election rolls along there will be the hesitance to change the government – The seats the LNP will gain include Macquarie, Lilley, Hunter, Parramatta, Lyons, Hughs – Labor will win Chisholm, Swan, Pearce

This seat is all over the place between the two major parties with a the buffer that is rubbery, if ALP were to win in 2022 this seat is a must to form government.

I don’t understand what makes people say that any particular seat is “a must to form government”. It’s possible for Labor to win government from gains in Victoria and WA alone, even if no Queensland seats change hands. And if polls have improved in their accuracy even somewhat since 2019, then Dickson and Brisbane will be in play too. There are many scenarios in which Labor can form government without winning Longman.

Longman is a seat in many parts. You have the TORY “Riley Retirees “of Bribie and the Labor areas of Morayfield and Caboolture. There was a One Nation presence in the past that won’t be as impactful this time. This a seat Labor needs to win in Queensland and are slight favourites at this stage. The local member is a dud.

Labor paying $1.82 to win on Sportsbet, Coalition $1.90. Looks to be a close contest, but will Terry Young have made enough inroads with the electorate to earn himself a sophomore swing? The comments above suggest he might not have.

I’m predicting that sitting members who supported the mandatory jabs & lockdowns will be unseated. This has happened in SA already with a change of government. One Nation got 13.2% of the first preference vote last election and will almost double that vote in the next federal election; the freedom-fighting parties will have a major increase in votes. The people will revolt at the Palaszczuk State Labour Government for her nazi lockdowns & treacherous discrimination against them, thus a federal labor candidate will suffer leakage of votes. Similarly, the Federal Government is Liberal so the liberal candidate will suffer also. These disgruntled voters will vote elsewhere. People must take a stand for their freedom & show politicians that they work for us; we are not their slaves & playthings to punish just to satisfy their megalomanic needs. In addition, learn how the preferential voting system works to make your vote count.

So far little evidence of campaigning. As I reported six months ago Rebecca Fanning has the appearance in Facs book of being very active but I have not set eyes on her or Any other party campaigning. Terry Young has put out a liberal party flyer which is one of the most informative political flyers I’ve seen in the last 20 years. However I think he is probably fighting an uphill battle with even a slight swing to Australian Labor Party He will lose the seat. I have not shit eyes on him since the last election campaign. His performance in parliament has been mediocre with little more than Dorothy Dixie’s And a few electorate issues.

It is unlikely that there will be a DLP/Katter / Country party candidate which leaves all of the known candidates to the extreme of the majors.

With this same situation at the state election I was forced to vote for the A LP‘s Chris Whiting, Who is a good local member. This was a situation I never thought would occur.

So far only candidates that I know of are Fanning and White but Wikipedia lists UAP, Liberal Democrat Anti- vax Green and Animal Justice. All of this bunch from lunatic fringe will be below the two major parties on my ballot paper. The effective handling of COVID 19 by both Federal and State governments Means that candidates campaigning predominantly on this issue will be targeting the 8% of the population and un-vaccinated.
From discussions at two non-political organisations I get the impression that’s a great majority of people are satisfied with the way the governments of Australia Have handled Covid and will not be taking a hammer to major party candidates on this issue.
My freedom was not impacted by the lack of coffins in 2021-22. Screaming Freedom at me will not make me change my mind. Many of those screaming Freedom would have a chance normally of getting my vote, eg Christiansen, Rennick, Palmer but this time they will be below the Majors. Endorsing Newman insures that Liberal Democrats will be below the majors. Last time all of those groups were above to majors. In the Senate I am going to have some more candidates worthy of the last spot than spots available.
I should have not yet decided whether Albanese is Weiss than Morrison but neither desrvd to be PM.

Therefore I enter this election with very little commitment to any candidate. Tony Z ( who is not well physically) and I will probably be handing out HTV for Katter candidate.

@Andrew Jackson One of the funniest comments I’ve read on this site 😂🤣🤣😂😆😆😂🤣 Good luck to you sir.

Terry Young has been a big bag of nothing over the last 3 years, the only presence I’ve seen is his big billboards that say ‘working for you’.

Longman is a pretty diverse seat, with a decent regional population. I think we’ll see One Nation pick up more than last time, however I’m predicting Labor’s Fanning will edge out in front and take the seat. The wild card could be the smaller parties potentially taking a few more votes with preferences flowing to the LNP.

Lydia Lynch in The Australian today has a good analysis of the seat. Dr Paul Williams predicts that influence of One Nation will grow. In 2019 One Nation had an effective candidate and voters had only just re elected Susan Lamb after the S 44 fiasco I thought Australian Labor Party would win in 2019 and was surprised by Terry Young’s narrow victory. There has been a DLP/ Katter/ Country Party campaign in this seat every election since 2010. These voters will not want to vote for either major party or the racist vitriol of One Nation. However I know that many of them
Will be tempted to base their vote on bread and butter issues, fuel prices ( South of Longman has some of cheapest fuel in country due to proximity to COSCO at North Lakes.
However hospitals are overcrowded and commuter transport chaotic. Public transport excluding the railway line that bisects the electorate North to South is verging on
Non existent. My only access to public transport is to make special arrangements with school bus provider.
Ben is right about the variability of voters in electorate. I have worked booths in Burpengary (2007-10)
Morayfield and Bribie Island Pre poll ‘s (2013, 16 and 2019) Caboolture in 2018 by election) and each of these booths is very doifferent.
Bribie Pre poll was one of the most pleasant to world that I have done only hiccups were thugs working for one of the independent Senate candidates. Even the One Nation booth Captain got on with all other parties. The voters were strongly Liberal even with Wyatt Roy as the candidate and I suspect he lost a lot of votes over NBN rollout issues. Not the NBN but the failure to provide human support. Morayfield was a rough booth with more bickering amongst party workers. One of Anning’s lot was even casting spells on one of Australian Labor Party workers. Anning and One Nation isolated themselves leaving Libs ALP, FF and Katter as a sort of mainstream civility. Greens hardly manned the booth other than to try and ambush PM. Woodford on the country western rim
Was a pleasant booth that probably would have voted National
If goven the opportunity.

My prediction is ALP gain but then I said that last time. I expect I will hand out HTV for Katter Senate candidate.

I live in Longman and would normally vote ALP. But I just cannot do that if Terry Young is my option. I hate how he deletes anything that is not “Terry Young, you are so great” Anything more negative about something he has done, and he will delete or hide the comments. So what you see on his page is not really the true sentiment.
When Covid first caused us to lock down, he even said he would not have anyone mention Covid on his page at all. My business was heavily impacted by Covid due to the nature of my business, so I was heavily bleeding money. This greatly offended me to not be able to even mention the C word on his page, when to me it was a major impact on our life.

Sarah Terry Young is not the Australian Labor Party candidate he is the Liberal Party Candidate.

Driving around Burpengary Morayfield today there is a clear dominance of UAP Corflutes, wooden signs probably larger than max size permitted by Moreton Bay Regional Council.
The local Burpengary East Community Facebook page has photo evidence of UAP erecting signs at intersections in breach of councils election signs subsidiary legislation.
A few signs up for Libs and Australian Labor Party but no doubt UAP signage dominant. Clear evidence of Palmers signs being prevalent between Buchanan Rd and Eastern Service Road. If this was a Fisho the Council would have acted and the Council Ranger would have acted and confiscated the signs.

Puzzling that betting markets favour Labor here when it looks like type of electorate that would be natural ground for Morrison?

Ben explained Longman. It is really three stripes running North South. A Farming National Party stripe in the West,a Central stripe of traditional Labor voters . Howard battlers who make up the majority of electorate and a coastal strip which is now dominated by sea changers from Brisbane. predominantly Liberals.

Fair point Geoff, @Andrew Jackson explain it well. The betting markets favour Labor here because at the moment, polls suggest anywhere from a 2% to 10% swing is in play for Queensland. I think that it will land around 6% but wouldn’t rule out movement before election day. Of course the other main point is where and how will this swing be distributed throughout Queensland? You’re right that the profile of this electorate is generally a natural fit for Morrison so the swing might be softer here but we don’t know for sure.

For all we know, the swing might be localised in divisions by over 10% where it does not matter at all. Safe LNP seats on the Gold Coast, Sunny Coast and even in Brisbane like Bonner and Bowman that can handle a huge swing and hold. And/or the swing plays out in Safe Lab seats that aren’t worth contesting any way. Whereas the outer-suburban marginal seats like Longman might only have localised swing of 1% or 2% (or gain ground). This is the gamble Coalition is making throughout the country.

Labor was a big chance to win this seat if: They had a leader who resonated better in Qld, like Rudd did in 07. Given they don’t, there’s two things they needed to do to win this and they’ve done neither so they won’t win it. Firstly, they needed to be going way harder on inflation and the inevitable interest rate rises and attacking the Libs over it. I’m smart enough to know the government is not the the full reason why inflation and interest rates go up but so what? That’s never stopped Labor being attacked for things out of their control, it’s politics. Interest rate scare campaigns have lost Labor elections before. They should be fighting fire with fire, they’re not. This is big mortgage belt, renting territory, it’s a big issue. Secondly, they needed a candidate that resonated better. I’d have been going hard to try to get one of the more popular Qld government MP’s to run here. Just my two cents worth.

Feel the Bern: ALP are doing exactly that today, so if your assessment holds true, they’re in with a chance here.

Let’s hope so anyway – I don’t fancy waking up as depressed on 22 May as I was back in 2019.

Its been reported in the Guardian that One Nation are preferncing Labor in this seat. It could be a significant factor if this seat goes down to the wire.

However, don’t discount if One Nation voters ignore the how to vote cards and do their own preferncing. One Nation are doing this after backlash they received in the WA state election in 2017 for a prefernce deal with the Liberals which enforced the public perception they were the lackey of the Liberals.

Wasn’t the reason why Labor gained this in 2016 because One Nation voters preferenced Labor over the Libs?

Data from the 2016 election in the Senate shows around only 4% of ON voters followed HTV cards. If ON repeats its 2019 result here, that would suggest the effect of ON preferencing Labor is a 0.3% swing. (Obviously there’s a lot of assumptions here.)

Though I wonder if HTV compliance is higher for the HOR ballot? Does anyone happen to have these figures? Four percent does seem very low, even for ON voters.

Nicholas, I think the 4% figure may be voters who follow the HTV card by the book, putting in all numbers in sequential order. The figure may be higher for those voters who follow the general sequence (i.e. putting the major party in the right order, Labor above LNP for this example) but then alter other parties around.

Its been reported in the Courier Mail One Nation will preference coalition in every seat in Queensland including Longman. It could be pivortal to the outcome of this seat.

Its been estimed when One Nation preference Labor they split 50 – 50 but they prefernce the coalition they split two thirds to the coalition the report suggested.

I think the earlier incorrect Guardian report was likely One Nation stringing the media along to make it seem as they were open minded and not a prefernce funneler for the coalition.

I have just been hit by an EMrTs poll by phone (1330 Hrs Sunday 1 May) they did not have full list of candidates system ndinv. Sutherland not on their list. Suvey takes attempted to force me into saying either ALP or LNP. Very reluctant to accept my answer ghat they were both as bad as each other and I had not yet made up my mind to put higher.
My gut feeling is ALP are not as confident of winning Longman as I think is case.
Survey taker had never heard of DLP or Australian Counyry Party snd not the least bit interested in Senate.
Especially when I said I would try to ensure that Senate. It in hands og whoever is PM.
My wife said after hearing me answer his questions ghat he would be saying “ boy I just had a beauty then”

Burpengary East is a small part of the electorate. Only two houses with corflutes up one in Uhlmann Road and the other in Cobb Road. I have no sign up outside my house the first time since 2007 that this has been the case.

I have not seen a single street stall and have not set eyes on any of candidates. The lack of local papers is impacting on candidates own campaigning.

The fact that most commentators have given this seat back to Australian Labor Party has impacted on some local discussion anfd May even be beneficial to Terry Young. There is very little hostility to Terry Young but some sympathy emerging that he is losing his seat.
I was asked today by a local businessman when the prepoll were opening ., and was surprised that I don’t think I am manning the booth. I think I am sitting this one out.

EMRTS poll came back to me night before last. Terry Young ( LNP ) mailed two pieces of literature to my wife and I, How to Vote attached To one of them.

It is a sad reflection on our society that even the two major parties are dependent upon paying Australia Post for distribution of party material. Ie the local LNP branch members are insufficiently committed of reliable to distribute party literature.
Clearly Terry Young is concentrating effort in Burpengary East whilst UAP are concentrating effort on Morayfield East Area.