LIB 5.0%
Incumbent MP
Melissa McIntosh, since 2019.
Geography
Western Sydney. Lindsay covers most of the City of Penrith, stretching from Londonderry in the north to Mulgoa in the south.
Lindsay was first created as part of the 1984 expansion of the House of Representatives, and had always been held by the party of government until 2016.
The seat was first won by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1984. Free had previously held the seat of Macquarie since 1980. Free served as a minister from 1991 until his defeat in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Jackie Kelly.
Kelly won the seat with a swing of almost 12%, destroying Free’s margin of over 10% after the 1993 election. Kelly was disqualified from sitting in Parliament six months after winning her seat due to her RAAF employment and failure to renounce her New Zealand citizenship, and Lindsay went to a by-election seven months after the 1996 federal election, where Free suffered another swing of almost 5%.
Kelly served as a junior minister in the second Howard government and as John Howard’s Parliamentary Secretary during his third term. Kelly announced her retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal Party preselected Karen Chijoff, while the ALP preselected David Bradbury, a former Mayor of Penrith who had run against Kelly in 2001 and 2004.
Three days before the 2007 election, a ramshackle attempt by the Liberal Party to paint the ALP as sympathetic to terrorists was exposed in Lindsay, when ALP operatives caught Liberals red-handed distributing leaflets supposedly from an Islamic group praising the ALP for showing forgiveness to the Bali Bombers. The husbands of both the sitting member and the Liberal candidate were amongst those caught up in the scandal. The scandal dominated the final days of the campaign, and Bradbury defeated Chijoff comfortably, with a 9.7% swing.
Bradbury was re-elected in 2010, but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Fiona Scott.
Scott lost her seat in 2016 to Labor’s Emma Husar. Husar served one term, but fell out with her party after allegations about her behaviour in office. She ended up not running for re-election, and the Liberal Party’s Melissa McIntosh won the seat.
Assessment
Lindsay is a marginal seat that has a history of flipping back and forth. You’d normally expect McIntosh to benefit from a new personal vote after winning the seat off Labor in 2019.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Melissa McIntosh | Liberal | 45,247 | 46.5 | +7.2 |
| Diane Beamer | Labor | 34,690 | 35.6 | -5.5 |
| Nick Best | Greens | 4,781 | 4.9 | +1.3 |
| Mark Tyndall | Independent | 2,785 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Christopher Buttel | United Australia Party | 2,831 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Brandon Lees | Conservative National Party | 2,374 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Mark K.C. Moody-Basedow | Christian Democratic Party | 1,997 | 2.1 | -1.0 |
| Jim Saleam | Australia First | 1,372 | 1.4 | +0.2 |
| Geoff Brown | Sustainable Australia | 1,326 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Informal | 12,135 | 11.1 | -0.7 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Melissa McIntosh | Liberal | 53,614 | 55.0 | +6.2 |
| Diane Beamer | Labor | 43,789 | 45.0 | -6.2 |
Booths have been divided into central, east, north and west. North covers the rural booths including Londonderry, while East covers St Marys. West covers the booths on the other side of the Nepean River plus Mulgoa and a few other booths in between.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three ares, barely winning in the centre and winning over 60% in the north and west. Labor polled 57.5% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 50.9 | 23,437 | 24.1 |
| West | 60.1 | 18,052 | 18.5 |
| North | 60.4 | 11,113 | 11.4 |
| East | 42.5 | 9,397 | 9.6 |
| Pre-poll | 57.4 | 25,192 | 25.9 |
| Other votes | 55.4 | 10,212 | 10.5 |
Election results in Lindsay at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
@nimalan
1. regain all teal seats – they have good prospects in Kooyong, Goldstein and Curtin this time around but Wentworth and Warringah certainly not this time around. I think the redistribution will likely serve Allegra Spender well and she is not as hostile towards the Libs and may actually support Dutton as she has stated she would back whoeer got the most seats. Warringah wont flip this time around but the boundaries still favour the coalition on 2pp so if she backs in a minority labor government she could be vunerable in 2028. Mackellar will likely hold as well but could be an upset, howver the same situation applies as in Warringah,
2. Reverse other 2022, 2019 loses Gilmore etc – likely at the 2025 election
3. gain 2016 loses that are not ASM seats such as Dobell eden Monaro Solomon etc this includes mayo but not Hindmarsh due to different boundaries – good odds in 2025 but would be more likely in 2028. Mayo wont flip until Sharkie retires.
4. Regain Indi a 2013 loss – an outside chance in 2025 but odds would likely be extremely favourable in 2028 if Haines supported an labor minority government
5. Regain McEwen a 2010 loss but can be won on current boundaries – i give them a 50/50 chance in 2025
6. win Paterson – will flip in 2025 in my opinion
7. Win Blair Moreton maybe Kingston or Makin subject to boundaries these are 2007 loses – blair and moreton an outside chance in 2025 but probably not. Blair due to low margin but the swing especially in qld doesnt seem like it will be enough. Moreton due to retiring member. Blair in my opinion would flip in 2028 due to Neumann maybe forced out by the quota and even if he isnt the redistribution will probably shed parts of Ipswich which along with his incumbency is the only thing keeping him above water. Kingston virtually no chance the left vote is simply too strong here now. Safe as houses especially given labors strong standing at a state level and the poor performance of the libs. Makin has slowly trended Labor too but not as solid.
8 win Isaac’s and maybe holt subject to boundaries – issacs seems like a labor hold except in a bad year, holt could be possible if its a bad year but if the boundaries change it could be more favourable getting the rest of casey from la trobe or parts of bruce. Bruce in my opinin the libs do have good prospects not only now as i see it as a potential target for 2028 unless labor suffers a collapse in 2025 but if a future redistribution sheds more or the remainder of dandenong the libs would be favourites.
9 win Parramatta Greenway and maybe Richmond
*9 win Parramatta Greenway and maybe Richmond – they have a shot at both parramatta and richmond in 2025 but greenway seems like a 2028 plan. parramatta is with the margin or error
have a look at Werriwa. looks like Labor is poised to throw resources into defending that seat
(paywalled) but you can get jist from the highlights
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Flabor-moves-to-shore-up-werriwa-amid-barton-preselection-uproar%2Fnews-story%2Feb203b7663663fb4aa65885a3c2fad07&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
sry hit post too ealry on the prevoius comment…
parramatta is with the margin or error and could flip but i think it will be a very marginal hold 1% or under. Richmond is interesting because with the fall of greens support and Justine Elliots support on a downwards trend there could be an opportunity for the libs to sneak up the middle. while the nats would likely recover i have doubts they can win the seat back off elliot. but for the libs to win they would need to outpoll the nats so tactical voting may happen. Greenway seems like a bridge too far in an election thats tipped to be close but maybe they can win i back like they should have in 2013 with a landslide in 2028.
@ John
Best case scenario does not mean 2028 or 2025 it can be generally with no particular year in mind thats why i did not mention in any years. I will use 2022 boundaries.
I think Holt and Issacs for the Libs are better than Bruce demographically. Issacs is becoming wealthier, it is less diverse. Holt is more aspirational than Bruce which is very divided SES. Libs would have won Holt and Issacs in 2004 on 2022 boundaries.
If there is an expansion of parliament then Hindmarsh and Adelaide can be won but not in 2022 boundaries.
Werriwa is an issue for Labor as it low quality MPs since Latham and also new aspirational suburbs such as Cecil Hills, Middleton Grange, West Hoxton etc. Labor should look at dumping Anne Stanley and having a fresh MP.
@Nimalan with a NSW-style approach I think the Liberals could gain Bennelong, Fowler (without Dai Le), Greenway, McMahon (maybe), Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa plus all of the teal seats. They could also get Bean plus Lingiari and Solomon with more moderate approaches. Will Hodgman could win Franklin for the Liberals too provided the leader is moderate.
@nimalan yes i agree best case scenario. isaacs ive had aq thought while omw to work and yes that could be too. there are 3 factors that could help, a landslide election, dreyfeus retiring which may happen and a redistribution that adds another seat which would likely remove parts of dandenong or even a more favourable redistribtion or expansion of parliament. there is a strong chance that all 3 of these things might happen in 2028 and if that were the case id put the liberals at good odds of winning it. I think Bruce will flip before Holt as the newer boundaires mean the margin there is lower. in regards to an expansion i think if would only see SA get 1 maybe 2 additional seats maximum so can see the boundaires shifting that radically. in regards to Werriwa its now on my radar and it could determine who forms government. in regards to dumping Stanley i doubt they will as not only would they lose he benefits of incumbency but outside misconduct by the mp its usually hard to dump an mp due the way the factions choose the mps and they dont have an open preselection.
@NP they can win most of those without moderates Bennelong, Greenway, parramatta, reid, werriwa and maybe the teals could flip under dutton in the next two electoral cycles. while they may gain those others under a moderate theyd likely lose some to labor under the labor lite paradox. and theres no evidence to suggest they would anyway
@ NP
The issue is a seat like Fowler is very working class and too poor in most parts. The issue is that it is the economic self-interest for the residents of Fowler and to a lesser extent McMahon (more mixed seat) to vote Labor, so if they vote Liberal it is due to social/cultural issues and the residents have become left conservative or reverse teal (DLP style). This means the Libs cannot focus on economic reform etc and will have to emphasis social issues to keep the people of Fowler happy this will not be received well in Mackellar/Wentworth etc. It is why Victorian Labor had no interest in keeping Hawthorn as they felt there is a risk in becoming like the Teals.
@nimalan exactly its hard to pander to both ends of the economic divide. seats like cmahon and to a lesser extent fowler are areas of multi-ethnic and low economic status compared to places like the north shore or even regional areas and its hard to pander to one without disenfranchising the other hence why one party can never win more then a maximum of 2/3 of the seats
@Nimalan I was basing Fowler off the fact that the NSW Liberals (who are moderate) had a big swing to them in Liverpool at the 2023 state election.
The Liberals also hold the mayoralty in Liverpool too.
@np fowler is mostly fairfield though
@ Nether Portal
Only a small part of Liverpool LGA is in Fowler. The vast majority of Fowler is Fairfield LGA and also Liverpool council includes well of areas and stronger Liberal areas such as Voyager Point, Wattle Grove etc which are in Hughes a safeish Liberal seat. There also more aspirational suburb such West Hoxton, Middleton Grange etc where the Libs have strength this is not in Fowler so Liverpool council is more mixed than the name would suggest a bit like Blacktown council.
@ John, you have hit the nail on the head. The Coalition at their best can appeal to both regional seats and seats like Wentworth, Kooyong etc. while they may differ on social issues they are all economically right wing seats. Labor can appeal to progressive seats like Cooper, Canberra and working class poor seats such as Spence, Calwell, Watson etc while they may differ on social issues all those seats are economically left wing seats.
@np that is why they are a chance of winning werriwa though
Also John i think your 2/3 Figure is very accurate the Coalition at its best probably can win just close to 100 (i think high 90s more realistic) seats the remaining seats will be held by the left. Even Victorian Labor in 2022 plus Greens got 60/88 which about 2/3. You need a very dire result like NSW 2011, QLD 2012 or WA 2021 to really get more than that.
Agree Nimalan, I also think state elections are easier to win large landslide like results because of the small district sizes and more localised campaigns. Even at the 1975 federal election, the Coalition only won 91 out of 127 seats (under 75%), so that was well short of the total wipeouts inflicted by the Queensland LNP (78 out of 89, 87% of Assembly seats in 2012) and WA Labor (53 out of 59, 89% of Assembly seats in 2021).
@nimalan NSW 2011 can be attributed to Labor corruption scadal, QLD 2012 an aging govt that was basically overwhelmed by years in office and WA 2021 because of Covid/mcgowan factors. yes 100 is the number i came up with on the very best scenario.
@ John/Yoh An
I agree with you as well. Those elections were very bad results like NSW 2011 and many of the seats that they won in 2011 were lost in 2015 even though 2015 was still a good result. In Victoria in 1992 Jeff Kennett also got 61/88 so around 2/3. South Australia 2006 was also 28/47.