Lindsay – Australia 2022

I’ll start the discussion here in Lindsay by saying Melissa Macintosh while low profile should reelected with a slight swing to her. I disagree that this seat is “trending liberal” this did lose it’s bellwether status in 2016 and remember Penrith came close to flipping at the state election despite the fact Labor came short in most of the other traditional marginal seats or the seats they needed to win.

Labor should get this if and when they win government again but it won’t be in 2022 and unlikely to be 2025 if Tanya succeeds Albanese.

Labor is more likely to win here than Banks or Reid

@Ben Raue
Typo in “St Marys” in the first paragraph under the booth breakdown map.

Thanks Nicholas, fixing now.

It is true that Lindsay voted to the right of NSW in 2019 for the first time since the 2004 election (which was followed by a significant redistribution) but for now that’s just one datapoint.

Daniel
Agreed. Spectacularly unlikely that Labor gets this back ever. I can’t imagine whatever contortions the AEC can possibly impose that would change this The libs will push for everything east of South Creek (ie St Marys) to go to Chifley. The result of this would be obvious. They pushed for half last time.

Hey Daniel.

“and unlikely to be 2025 if Tanya succeeds Albanese.”

You also could’ve worded it like so:

“and unlikely to be 2025 if Plibersek succeeds Anthony.”

Why do some people get referred to by their first name, but not others?

In some cases I can buy it when the first name is a bit unique and the surname hard to spell (think Gladys Berejiklian), but I wouldn’t have thought that spelling Plibersek was significantly harder than spelling Albanese. And Tanya could mean anyone.

B of P
First names or nicknames could signify importance affection, admiration, notoriety, Or hatred.
Myself .? It’s all about impact !!. Whatever suits my “florid expression” as Wreathy put it so flatteringly !!
cheers WD

This seat was a real mess in 2019 & it honestly wouldn’t have mattered if Labor had won the election as this seat would have still gone to the LNP, what will be interesting to see in the next federal election if it will stay or go back to Labor.

Dominic Perrotet becoming premier will likely result in this falling to Labor. the most conservative premier since Askin will alienate allot of voters in the centre and the anger will likely go to federal as well like how Labor was punished in NSW in 2010 with Kennelly being an unpopular premier

It’s more that he’s about to bungle Covid even worse than Berejiklian did.

Lindsay is not really Small l liberal territory so i dont believe DP’s social conservativism would affect him here. It is the classic Howard Battler seat. It maybe the case that the Liberal vote in the more progressive Blue Mountains (Macquarie) will slide further. Generally, i think DP will be judged in 2023 based on the economy and service delivery rather than social issues.

I expect the Liberals to hold here with not much swing at all either way it goes,with the reopening happen people’s views on lockdown will be a thing of the past and the focus Will more be generalised onto the economy with also an expectation with federal polling in NSW to slowly start coming back to the Liberals too.

Daniel with yet another thought-bubble with no data to back it up… I’d love to see a stat on his predictions, in terms of any that he has actually got right. Especially this far our from an election

Nimalan is correct. Howard Battler Seat. The issues are more locally necessitous, focused around delivery of services. It is way too early to make a call on this seat yet. Probably another year to go before we can start seeing something more solid.

There is a lot of rubbish being said on this thread.
Why wouldn’t McIntosh get a strong sophomore surge ?
Why would the momentum of about a 9% swing in 2019 just disappear ?
Why wouldn’t the 5000+ new voters behave like the previous influx of new voters ?
Check out the AEC election results for Lindsay . They are pretty devastating

DP , “small liberal”vs “conservative” is ridiculous nonsense. What has erupted in Victoria is far more likely to be significant, & deeply damage the Labor brand, Albo & all major parties. Watch how quickly Chris Minns condemns all this , & attempts to distance himself from all the debacles. Minns has the best judgement of any Labor MP ATM.

Anyone predicting a labor win here needs to change their medication, OR IS CERTIFIABLE IN THE SECOND PLACE.

Daniel appears to be a flip flopper, at the start of this year before the 3rd COVID wave struck Australia he indicated the Liberals would be strongly favoured to win this seat. Now with the Sydney lockdown and change of NSW premier he says Labor is now favoured.

Whilst Perrottet has made a few missteps since taking over as NSW Premier, overall he is sticking with the vaccination targets and I wished Premier Anastasia in my new home state of Queensland would also set similar targets for additional freedoms like interstate travel resumption based on set vaccination targets.

If this seat falls, it’ll be because of Morrison and the federal government, not because of Dominic Perrottet. State issues can impact federal issues, but not by a 5% margin.

The LNP are clearly worried if Scott Morrison is visiting this seat. I would not rule this seat out as a definite hold.

I still believe it’ll be a hold, you have to remember he hasn’t campaigned in a long time so even though this seat is 5% you still have to visit seats with the large time frame till the election, it’s more getting the message across to the people and Labor hasn’t even chosen a candidate here yet which says a bit about their chances you’d think.

Labor has announced its candidate, Trevor Ross, who I believe has been a firefighter for 36 years.

Labor’s Lindsay candidate, local veteran firefighter Trevor Ross, actually does hold a hose. Great pick for the 2022 federal election.

Labor in the Nepean region has serious issues. They forgot how to talk with the local. The most previous elections in this area(Federal & State) saw Labor volunteers with very poor behaviour. I witnessed them turning backs on people, yelling over people and once saw a Labor volunteer yelling abuse at a Greens volunteer.

This is no longer a safe Labor seat but gradually becoming more Liberal than Labor. Labor need to come to terms with this. I personally prefer to see both the Libs and ALP turfed out for good but I’m just one person.

Labor’s candidate has a big job ahead of him being unknown. His campaign team will need to keep their supporters under control during the election campaign.

Earth W, Lindsay was never a true ‘safe’ seat for Labor, it was always considered a swing district and a bellwether that was generally held by the government of the day. Although you do make a good argument that this seat, with a high proportion of battlers and those of more ‘working class’ background, is trending more towards a Liberal leaning seat that Labor may not capture this time, even if they do win the election.

Yoh An
Prior to 1996, Lindsay was considered a safe Labor seat. Labor’s lowest 2pp was 59% in 1987. It was one of the shocks of 1996 when the Libs won. Since then it has been marginal. It has probably become wealthier but also the social demographics may have seen it move to the right. As for election 2022 – at this stage it is my “who knows” category. The Libs might just hold on.

Lindsay, has a short history only existing since 1984. So it is hard to say if it was a safe seat prior to 1996. Labor was at its peak federally during Hawke/Keating years. Prior to 1984 i believe the Penrith area was in the seat of Macquarie which was Liberal held for most of the Fraser years. However, i am not sure Penrith specifically voted during those years. I agree much of the Western part of the seat close to the Nepean river such as Glenmore Park, Leonay has becoming more affluent. However, there are still some working class areas such as St Marys which have not changed much demographically. Penrith area often reminds me of the Frankston area (VIC) which people of mistakenly believe is a solid Labor area even through the area is a patchwatch of affluent, middle class and deprived areas.

Antony Green, compares the trajectory of Lindsay to Hughes as both areas have a high proportion of tradespeople (aspirational voters). This is a demographic that has moved to the right in Australia. https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/lind

Wd… I would not predict a Labor win here but it would not surprise me.Labor suffered from what I would call the Emma Husar experiment and the mishandling of the aftermath. Ms Beamer was not a bad candidate but there was too much damage control needed. The sophomore surge will not occur in a non neutral political climate but 5% is a big ask.

Mick
Any chance Labor might have had disappeared with “Vlad the impaler” doing his thing in Ukraine !
cheers wd

WD
As there is not a glint of light between the two major parties on Ukraine, it is hard to see it making a difference politically – my only caveat on that is if China somehow becomes involved then there may be a political dimension.
In Oz, have any of the minor parties ever played footsie with Putin?

I believe some of the right-wing minor parties are pro-Putin. Simeon Boikov, who could very well run in Reid, is very well known for his pro-Putin stance. Craig Kelly has also supported Russia over the MH17 incident.

Go Trevor!

Go Melissa!

Go Banana!

Labor will probably win here, possibly on a large swing. But if the Liberals hold here, the Coalition is probably holding onto government.

I’m not sure what your logic here is, CG. There are 15 Liberal electorates with smaller margins than Lindsay, and the current polling patterns suggest a swing in NSW pretty similar to this margin (PollBludger has it at 5.7%). I don’t see why the Liberals holding Lindsay would mean they’ll hold onto government.

Perhaps you could elaborate on your reasoning?

Lindsay, has (except for the 2016 election) has been a bellwether seat. Thus it often goes to the government of the day – adding other factors:

In the 2010 state seat of Penrith (state seat entirely within Lindsay) a by-election saw a massive swing to the Liberals just before the 2010 federal election this was largely influenced by the very unpopular state Labor government. The 2010 similar swings (albeit nowhere near as big) occurred in Lindsay. In the 2015 state election neighbouring state seats fell (the Blue Mountains and Granville) a year later, and Lindsay fell surprisingly to Labor (anti-Coalition swing). In the 2019 NSW election, the state Liberals had substantially smaller swings against then expected – but held on to Penrith, few months later the Liberals not only held government but won Lindsay back – caused in part by Labor’s members retirement and a swing the Coalition in that suburban part of Sydney

2019, Nine choices:
Melissa McIntosh Liberal
Diane Beamer Labor
Nick Best Greens
Mark Tyndall Independent
Christopher Buttel United Australia Party
Brandon Lees Conservative National Party
Mark K.C. Moody-Basedow Christian Democratic Party
Jim Saleam Australia First
Geoff Brown Sustainable Australia

2022, Five choices:
Melissa McIntosh (Liberal)
Pieter-Joris Morrsink (Greens)
Rebekah Ray (Informed Medical Options)
Trevor Ross (Labor)
Kristina Schupp (United Australia)

Can anyone explain the drop (apart from parties that folded)?
Mightn’t folded parties result in more independents?

Kristina Schupp’s link is dead on the United Australia website, and she’s not in the gallery. I’m not sure if she’s running, which would leave four. Not a lot to choose from.

You can’t compare partial nominations lists to the final list from 2019. There’s always last-minute nominations. I’m sure the UAP will find someone else if their candidate has withdrawn.

Interesting that there’s no indication yet of a One Nation candidate here. One Nation did very well just across the boundary in the Penrith part of McMahon (St Clair and Erskine Park), and these suburbs are far more similar to Lindsay than they are to the rest of McMahon. ON also got 7% in the seat of Penrith in the 2019 state election.

If they were to run here, I can see Lindsay being one of the better seats for One Nation outside of Queensland and the Hunter. And yet they have already named candidates in far less favourable seats like Warringah and Fowler.

Well, three of those parties (Conservative Nationals, Australia First, Christian Democrats) *are* deregistered, plus it’s not super common for independents to come back and have another crack. That’s four gone right there, though I suppose a CDP candidate or Saleam might run unendorsed.

Sustainable Australia is hit-or-miss, then again so is IMOP.

Melissa McIntosh has not learned how to write a letter / reply. Nor return 5 phone calls following up. Very rude. Anyone but the Majors this time. They have sold us out to old Nazi Klaus Schwab, George Soros, the Gates ex pair, Jeff Sachs et al. Scott Morrison is truly a traitor and Albenese even worse. Morrison and his brother has given us Aussies to The World Health Organisation. Compulsory Jabs for our lifetime. Vote the Freedom Parties. Save Australia.

Interesting that in all the commentary and punditry in this election, Lindsay appears to have fallen by the wayside. No one is talking about what was a quintessential bellwether seat. Last time around when everyone thought Labor were going to pull through, there was talk about how the Liberals will win this against the trend, of course they did, but not against the trend.

Scott Morrison was in Penrith on the opening days of the campaign, but apart from that I don’t think there’s been any other high profile visits. I wouldn’t rule this out as a Labor pick up yet. The Liberal margin is probably a bit inflated, and the decision on interest rates would go down very badly here. Although this is the kind of place, where Scott Morrison may have some residual appeal.

Snickometer thinking what I was, it has trended Liberal but Labor has won it recent past on state-wide 2PPs that may be less than this time, but maybe Libs hold this for same reasons they win Reid.

I do hope this is satire @ Mairin

The liberals will not win Reid

Anton
Just accept that once the word “Soros” is in the answer there is a 90% chance that satire is not the purpose.

Haha, yep. Standard conspiracy theorists… they’re deadly serious.

Maybe they’ll just refuse to put a number against either Libs or Labor’s boxes and invalidate their votes.

Getting ready for them screaming that someone rubbed out their votes too. The Trumpian electoral fraud paranoia could severely damage democracy here.

With the way the Liberals are shifting to the right, I won’t be surprised if they scream election fraud like Trump if they lose on May 22.

Dan, You wouldn’t think so but I wouldn’t be surprised anymore if Scott Morrison refuses to concede defeat on May 21st if it is a clear Labor win. Same thing for some conservative liberal candidates and MP’s

Melissa Macintosh has stuck up for the PM on every occasion and is a proud supporter of him. I suspect this will hurt her re-election prospects and I reject that Morrison appeals in these parts. Then why did John Howard and Tony Abbott fail to carry Lindsay in both 2007 and 2010 respectively?

Morrison is certainly more of a John Howard than a Tony Abbott, but certainly the RBA raising interest rates will turn off mortgage voters (This hurt Howard in the mortgage belt in 07 IICR)

This could end up being the tipping point seat of the election. I agree with other posters that the margin is inflated. Will be very tight and I expect a 5-6% swing to Labor factoring in polling from Pollbludger and other factors.

I doubt Morrison and the majority of the Liberals will even hint at any claim of voter fraud if it is clear Labor will win on election night, however I won’t put it past a fair few of the Nationals Matt Canavan and even Barnaby if I’m honest. We’ll see though. I hope they all have the decency to respect voters and public opinion.

Concessions are just manners. Does not effect the result